Hidden stats within the stats....

NewJerseyHawk

Heisman
Jan 11, 2007
24,448
38,739
113
It's important to watch games and eliminate some things that a month ago were deemed as gospel. Two important points or things to consider before we see the repeated comments about what's needed etc.

Ron Harper Jr...stat line looks still very spotty but it's been very good IMO......we had fans saying "stop shooting 3's, his shot is flat, he's not a good shooter".......or "only take 2 pointers".....his stat line is 23.3% from 3....its actually very deceiving.

From the start of the season through Maine, Harper shot 5 of 36 from 3....that's over 12 games, which isn't a small sample size but enough to make fans wonder....is Harper a good shooter??

Since the restart of B1G, Harper Jr is shooting 9 of 24 from 3, which is a very good 37.5% from 3 point land. Over a sample of 7 games but something to consider if he stays on this pace, RU becomes more effective. Each 3 he makes, adds offense to a team still sorting out where points come from.

I don't know how you measure impact but at 48-46 vs PSU, Harper took a 3 that pushed the lead to 51-46....a key basket that was early in the shot clock and in rhythm.

We add Montez Mathis....who obviously has been mentioned in other threads, but increased playing time, staying out of foul trouble and attacking the basket, has his numbers looking different.

Since the restart of B1G play vs Maryland, he's shooting 36 out of 81 from the field, which is 44.4% from the field. That includes a deceiving 4-15 from the field vs PSU, where he had a couple of shots challenged at the basket and a rushed 3 against the shot clock.

But he was also told, "don't shoot 3's".....which i get it....he's not a pretty jump shooter or launcher from 3...BUT, you cannot crowd him, because he can drive around his defender, so he will get space to shoot....and in these last 7 games, shooting a very solid 6 of 16 from 3.....the same 37.5% from 3 as Harper Jr........2 in the ugly Purdue game, one to start the Maryland game and 2 yesterday vs PSU....another 3 in the Norrhwestern game as well.

More important than the 3's, Mathis has been attacking the basket and drawing fouls, which is more important than making the 3s...when you attack the basket, get downhill towards the basket, you do the following to help the team win games....

A) you add fouls to the defender, which makes coaches make adjustments. Coaches hate having key players get into foul trouble.

B) Mathis forces referees who somehow seem to forget to call fouls against our opponents at times....i could argue that on at least 5 or 6 of Mathis drives, he was fouled while making the basket or dunk and didn't get the " And 1"...

C) RU gets in the bonus quicker. So when Geo Baker is fouled late in games, he's shooting FTs under 8 minutes in the game vs sometimes not getting to the line much later in the game.

D) What Mathis also does is allow RU to set up defensively. The bigs catch their breath, the team can exhale. I know he's not shooting 80% from the line in these recent 7 games, he's at 65.7 or essentially 2 out of 3 from the line....all things considered with the defense and pressure he places on the opponents, I'm not going to worry about FTs just yet.

Add in Geo coming alive in the last 2 games and suddenly a game turns into 7 3s made instead of 4 or 5. A 6.5 point underdog wins by 4....a solid 8 to 9 point underdog vs Nebraska wins by 7.

I don't know if these stats are sustainable or how teams will adjust but as long as Geo draws attention, Harper and Mathis will thrive.....and if they attack Mathis, it will open up Geo.

Add in a couple of baskets from Shaq Carter and 7 to 9 rebounds and then Eugene finds a couple of baskets and FTs and you have a different feel of what's happening. It's no longer the Eugene and Geo show. It's a more balanced attack.

The overall stat line for the season is what it is....but carving out what impacts wins or changes the perception is what Harper and Mathis are doing. Their production limits empty possessions or shot attempts landing elsewhere when they were earning less playing time.... A few other tweaks yesterday found quality minutes and shots for Kiss and McConnell.

The staff and players are working very hard to tighten up loose ends, while developing players in the system, against very good competition. This isn't Boston University or Columbia, Drexel, with all respect to those programs...this is against our peers and bodes well for the rest of the season.
 
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Scarlet Shack

Heisman
Feb 3, 2004
26,276
15,951
73
This is a very good post

For me...I have been watching the stats of big ten only games as a better barometer ...as the competition is much better and the skew of the stats from the first two game in December is only a slight skew on the progress of things since January started
 

rufeelinit

All-Conference
May 16, 2010
12,647
4,351
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Good Post. You did not mention Myles Johnson but his performance against Nebraska was also very encouraging. He also got more minutes than Shaq Doorson again yesterday. I expect he will continue to get as many minutes as he can handle going forward. While right now, I think Shaq is the stronger post defender, it is clear Myles has a better all around game and much higher ceiling.
 
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dkostus

All-Conference
Feb 10, 2002
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Good Post. You did not mention Myles Johnson but his performance against Nebraska was also very encouraging. He also got more minutes than Shaq Doorson again yesterday. I expect he will continue to get as many minutes as he can handle going forward. While right now, I think Shaq is the stronger post defender, it is clear Myles has a better all around game and much higher ceiling.
The only thing with Shaq D is that he's 4 years older, 2 inches taller and 275 lbs. of solid muscle. Against strong big men in the B1G, I'm always amused to see them shocked that there is someone too strong for them to back down. Myles isn't able to hold his ground like that yet, but he'll get there
 

rudad02

All-American
Nov 7, 2010
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Agree with the post. Don't know about anyone else, but I don't like us, usually Geo, bringing the ball up court in situations like the end of the half, etc & letting the clock run down to 13 or 14 seconds before trying to score. We almost always have to settle for a forced shot, or time expires before we can get any shot off.
 
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Oct 19, 2010
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A few comments. The improvement from the youngsters has more optimistic for the team since before Coach Rice was shown to be a lunatic.

The team is also doing a better job of hitting the front end of the one and ones. Missing the front end - a notable issue at times - is one of the most exasperating things ever.
 

NewJerseyHawk

Heisman
Jan 11, 2007
24,448
38,739
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The only thing with Shaq D is that he's 4 years older, 2 inches taller and 275 lbs. of solid muscle. Against strong big men in the B1G, I'm always amused to see them shocked that there is someone too strong for them to back down. Myles isn't able to hold his ground like that yet, but he'll get there

I left the bigs out because i don't know who will play more than 25 minutes in any one game. Collectively, they're playing better.
 
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dkostus

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Feb 10, 2002
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I left the bigs out because i don't know who will play more than 25 minutes in any one game. Collectively, they're playing better.
Yeah, I totally figured you were making a specific point about Mathis/Harper, just responding to the other post. But yeah, the bigs are playing better. Carter as well.
 

MSRU71

Junior
Aug 2, 2003
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Very nice post. Seems that we tend to forget that the team is very young. Forgetting the stats, Harper and Mathis were not rated 4 stars for nothing. They will be stars. We are rugged and long up front. If we had a real point guard, this team would be a threat. Offensively, they are hard to watch, But their energy and passion on defense is great.
 

Scarlet Shack

Heisman
Feb 3, 2004
26,276
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There are three things that stick out to me that when you look st the big ten stats for RU...and it’s about defense

1.) we must defend
3-2 when holding opponents under 70 and 0-3 when they are over 70

2.) we need to continue to defend better...opponents shooting 47% against us in big ten play and 37% from three. Of course there is some bloat from a couple of high scoring games...but we need to get thar down

3.) got to cause more than 10 turnovers per game...

We’ve be taking pretty good care of the ball (especially with youth), and rebounding solidly . We just have to defend ...not going to win too many games 80-72...our wins will come 70-62
 

YoucancallmeRay

All-Conference
Nov 3, 2015
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Great post and love the comments too. Enjoyable reading posts that seem reasonable and knowledgeable too. The improvement in this team is very impressive. They seem to learn quickly (better shot selection, focus on scoring in the paint, better verticality on defense, reducing turnovers). Also impressive is the culture that Coach has clearly created: the kids play for and seem to trust each other. Also, they don't seem to panic during dry spells. They have a lot of versatility as well as a decent and improving frontcourt. Still need to work on end of shotclock situations and bigs being strong taking it up, among a few other things. Btw, I like Geo bringing the ball up and running the show. The team looked pretty good with that against PSU. They're a helluva lot of fun to watch and root for. Watch out Indiana!
 
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zebnatto

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May 7, 2008
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I love the fact that we have several guys (Geo, Ron, Caleb, MM) each of whom will get a handful of rebounds and are being let to turn and get ithe ball up the court.
 

RUsince52

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Apr 3, 2016
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Somehow we have to get more point production from our centers. 36 minutes and only 2-4 from the field. Doorson isn't going to provide much so it's up to Johnson to make some progress. Whether it's on putbacks or shots down low, he has to learn to score to help out. Time is on his side, but the sooner he can contribute the better off we will become if our normal shots aren't falling.
 

kcg88

Heisman
Aug 11, 2017
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Somehow we have to get more point production from our centers. 36 minutes and only 2-4 from the field. Doorson isn't going to provide much so it's up to Johnson to make some progress. Whether it's on putbacks or shots down low, he has to learn to score to help out. Time is on his side, but the sooner he can contribute the better off we will become if our normal shots aren't falling.

Penn State prioritized shutting things down inside. I was surprised Carter had such a poor game but I think he took his defensive woes (he got bullied and beat multiple times by Watkins/Stevens) with him to the offensive side and put up some frustration attempts.

1-6 shooting is such an outlier for him and I'd be surprised to see it repeated this year. Although I will say the 1 he made (and the free throw after) was a huge bucket to get.
 

Greene Rice FIG

Heisman
Dec 30, 2005
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Too many fans take the last game or 2 and draw conclusions off of it instead of looking at things in 8-10 game stretches. So your analysis is helpful.

Since you mentioned Mathis......
The staff has obviously told him he needs to take the ball to the basket more. Last game I felt the pendulum swung to far and at times took some bad shots. I have confidence he and the staff will find the right balance. I do agree he has to take and make 3s for him to be a long term positive effect on our half court offense. A huge positive from the game is he had a hard drive to the basket and passed. If he can be a double dual threat when penetrating watch out. Double meaning shoot/pass AND left/right.
 
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