If Mississippi State beats Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss (3-0 finish) ...
Then MSU will find itself in the New Year's Six. Most likely against the Group of 5 (currently UCF) opponent in the Peach Bowl. However, there would be an outside shot that MSU would be the second highest ranked ACC/Big Ten/SEC team not in the playoffs, which is a berth to the Orange Bowl against the highest ranked ACC/Big Ten team not in the playoffs.
How this would happen: Currently #16, a win over #2 Alabama, combined with the fact that several teams in front of MSU have to lose, would cause a jump to at least #10. Wins over Arkansas and Ole Miss along with other results would provide at least a jump to #9 that would provide a buffer in case of a huge upset in a conference championship game by a team outside the top 11 (Iowa State, Washington State).
Auburn's results against Georgia and Alabama really would not matter, as there is precedence for four teams from the same conference receiving New Years Six bids, but Auburn dropping one or two of these games simply would add more confidence to the scenario.
If Mississippi State loses to Alabama, but beats Arkansas and Ole Miss, or beats Alabama and splits Ole Miss and Arkansas (2-1 finish) ...
Without complete chaos, the New Years Six is out in this scenario. The Citrus Bowl is a likely destination, where we would play the top Big Ten team not in the New Years Six (currently Penn State). But to get to Orlando on New Year's Day, Auburn probably needs to win one of their remaining games against Georgia and Alabama and solidify their own New Year's Six bid. If Auburn were to drop both of them, the Citrus Bowl would have a choice between 8-4 Auburn and 9-3 MSU. We probably lose that battle.
If Mississippi State loses to Alabama and loses to Arkansas and/or Ole Miss (1-2 or 0-3 finish)...
We drop to the Group of Six Bowls, where we could technically be placed in any of them: Liberty, Music City, Belk, Gator, Outback, Texas. There are some intriguing possible Top 25 matchups in these games: Iowa State in the Liberty, Oklahoma State in the Texas, NC State in the Music City, Iowa in the Outback. My best guess is that we would end up in Memphis against a ranked Big 12 team.
Then MSU will find itself in the New Year's Six. Most likely against the Group of 5 (currently UCF) opponent in the Peach Bowl. However, there would be an outside shot that MSU would be the second highest ranked ACC/Big Ten/SEC team not in the playoffs, which is a berth to the Orange Bowl against the highest ranked ACC/Big Ten team not in the playoffs.
How this would happen: Currently #16, a win over #2 Alabama, combined with the fact that several teams in front of MSU have to lose, would cause a jump to at least #10. Wins over Arkansas and Ole Miss along with other results would provide at least a jump to #9 that would provide a buffer in case of a huge upset in a conference championship game by a team outside the top 11 (Iowa State, Washington State).
Auburn's results against Georgia and Alabama really would not matter, as there is precedence for four teams from the same conference receiving New Years Six bids, but Auburn dropping one or two of these games simply would add more confidence to the scenario.
If Mississippi State loses to Alabama, but beats Arkansas and Ole Miss, or beats Alabama and splits Ole Miss and Arkansas (2-1 finish) ...
Without complete chaos, the New Years Six is out in this scenario. The Citrus Bowl is a likely destination, where we would play the top Big Ten team not in the New Years Six (currently Penn State). But to get to Orlando on New Year's Day, Auburn probably needs to win one of their remaining games against Georgia and Alabama and solidify their own New Year's Six bid. If Auburn were to drop both of them, the Citrus Bowl would have a choice between 8-4 Auburn and 9-3 MSU. We probably lose that battle.
If Mississippi State loses to Alabama and loses to Arkansas and/or Ole Miss (1-2 or 0-3 finish)...
We drop to the Group of Six Bowls, where we could technically be placed in any of them: Liberty, Music City, Belk, Gator, Outback, Texas. There are some intriguing possible Top 25 matchups in these games: Iowa State in the Liberty, Oklahoma State in the Texas, NC State in the Music City, Iowa in the Outback. My best guess is that we would end up in Memphis against a ranked Big 12 team.
