herd immunity

[mstateglfr]

This is repeated over and again and cited as the now resonable/smart way to handle the virus.

Its said- we need to expose as many as possible to build up antibodies so this virus can't then replicate and continue.

I have now seen, heard, and read people pushing this approach.
That's cool and all, I'm not disagreeing with the approach, I just wonder if many listening/reading the often repeated idea realize that when we use the herd immunity approach for other viruses, its often thru safe vaccinations.
Vaccinatoons allow for herd immunity to develop without requiring people to risk getting sick and potential complications.

For this situation, it means people must get sick since its a novel virus.



This all may seem obvious to some here.
For many here, I'm sure it will be the first time they think about how that phrase is being used differently now than in many past situations. I'm also sure that many here will not admit it and will instead act like it was obvious all along.

Hopefully this helps someone recognize the difference between using the approach for seasonal flu and this. Or chicken pox and this.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Plasma from those who have had Covid and survived would seem like a no brainer....

 

[Captain Ron]

That is true and a vaccine certainly is the quickest way to get there.

Another approach is that you let the people who are the least risk of complications, continue on with their life and allow that segment of the “herd” build up immunity. This is exactly what Sweden has done and they have not had the exponential spike in cases predicted and have not overwhelmed their health care systems. The IHME model was so far off on Sweden it was laughable. Of course it predicted gloom and doom for Georgia when restrictions were relaxed and now has been downgraded again. ... but I’ll leave that topic for another day.

 

[Digging dog]

That is true and a vaccine certainly is the quickest way to get there.

Another approach is that you let the people who are the least risk of complications, continue on with their life and allow that segment of the “herd” build up immunity. This is exactly what Sweden has done and they have not had the exponential spike in cases predicted and have not overwhelmed their health care systems. The IHME model was so far off on Sweden it was laughable. Of course it predicted gloom and doom for Georgia when restrictions were relaxed and now has been downgraded again. ... but I’ll leave that topic for another day.

Exactly why all schools should be open in the fall. Ages less than 24 have less than .008% mortality rate.

 

[Dawgzilla]

What about their parents?

 

[We suck again]

What about their parents?

Know a lot of 60 year olds with school-aged children?

 

[Maroon Eagle]

My father was 60 when I graduated from high school.

 

[mstateglfr]

Know a lot of 60 year olds with school-aged children?

I dont know a lot of 60 year olds with school aged kids.
I do know that a lot in their 60s teach, do admin work at schools, drive busses, and drop/pick their grandchildren up from schools.

 

[We suck again]

I dont know a lot of 60 year olds with school aged kids.
I do know that a lot in their 60s teach, do admin work at schools, drive busses, and drop/pick their grandchildren up from schools.

Some of them are gonna die. Some of them would've died this fall regardless.

 

[RocketDawg]

This is repeated over and again and cited as the now resonable/smart way to handle the virus.

Its said- we need to expose as many as possible to build up antibodies so this virus can't then replicate and continue.

I have now seen, heard, and read people pushing this approach.
That's cool and all, I'm not disagreeing with the approach, I just wonder if many listening/reading the often repeated idea realize that when we use the herd immunity approach for other viruses, its often thru safe vaccinations.
Vaccinatoons allow for herd immunity to develop without requiring people to risk getting sick and potential complications.

For this situation, it means people must get sick since its a novel virus.



This all may seem obvious to some here.
For many here, I'm sure it will be the first time they think about how that phrase is being used differently now than in many past situations. I'm also sure that many here will not admit it and will instead act like it was obvious all along.

Hopefully this helps someone recognize the difference between using the approach for seasonal flu and this. Or chicken pox and this.

I suppose that approach might work for young, healthy people with no underlying conditions (we've all become amateur epidemiologists or virologists just from watching television with all the catch phrases), but what about the older folks that have other conditions? Wouldn't they have to wait on the vaccine, and not try to contract the disease on purpose, and while waiting, still be aggressively careful?

 

[Maroon Eagle]

And if we’re talking about students up to age 24, folks who work at IHL universities as well as the community colleges will need to be included.

I know a quite a few folks in higher education who are at least 60 and/or have compromised immune systems who are concerned.

 

[ckDOG]

Herd immunity is a SWAG number for covid

I've seen as low as 10% and high as 70%

The problem is that herd immunity calculations need more data than we currently have available

Since there is no vaccine, the equation is 1 - 1/R0

Two big problems. R0 is hard to calculate and varies based on human activities. It might be < 1 in some areas and close to 3 in others. This formula also assumes R0 is the same across all aspects of the population. Does a 70 year old become infected easier than a 10 year old? Probably, but not for certain. Here is a recent study on the concept: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v2.full.pdf+html

At any rate...old folks are still at risk. The rest of us, we may be far closer to herd immunity than many thought. How do we explain the southern states? Maybe warm weather is helping kill off the virus, but my guess would be that the susceptible folks are hiding out (or have already gone through their infection due to susceptibility) the rest of us are being decent by wearing masks (some of us) and physical distancing (a lot of us) to help reduce it to an acceptable level before a more permanent solution of a vaccine is available.

What else can we do? Keep opening up with some distancing and track the data. If we flare up, go back inside. This waiting around for a vaccine business is not going to work. I absolutely blame the media for positioning us where we are. Give them an inch for doom and gloom and they will run a mile with it.

 

[engie]

I read something awhile back claiming that kids get it, very rarely see any real symptoms, and almost never pass it back to adults. But I can't find it on a whim this Friday.

I think everyone understands how herd immunity works... Yes, more people are going to die in getting there the same way they are dying now. It's just a zero sum game at the end of the day in my assumption that we make it there one way or another. There is some promising stuff on vaccines right now and if we can have a good safe one by the fall I might be willing to rethink my scenario. But I just don't think it's possible. Zero chance to test the longterm effects there.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Some of them are gonna die. Some of them would've died this fall regardless.

^^^^This^^^^ we make/ have made choices over the span of our life that could help/hurt our chances of a long productive life, but even healthy people die everyday...even when someone dies of natural causes, there is usually something else that starts the process of dying .... one of my 46 year old neighbors went septic from a kidney stone and almost died two weeks ago and spent a week in ICU...do we need to ban milk or chocolate?

 

[thatsbaseball]

Some of you "tough talkers" are gonna find out what a ***** karma really is one day.

 

[We suck again]

Some of you "tough talkers" are gonna find out what a ***** karma really is one day.

Oh no! At some point in my life something had will happen!? Close everything down and keep everybody away from me.

 

[kired]

Regardless of what people think about herd immunity - the US is well on its way. We’ve pretty much sheltered all we’re going to shelter. There’s no going back now.

Will be interesting to see if other countries are able to contain this for however long it takes to develop a vaccine without completely wrecking their economies.

 

[thatsbaseball]

Nope I agree with you on opening things up...just not stupid enough to act like all the risk is on "somebody else". But you need to do and say what you think is best.

 

[Villagedawg]

I know tons of

Know a lot of 60 year olds with school-aged children?

60+ year olds raising school age children. School age children also have teachers, cafeteria workers, administrators, contractors, custodians, . . .

 

[Len2003]

We need 200 million infected to reach herd immunity. If the fatality rate is 0.5%, we need 1 million people to die to reach herd immunity. Is this acceptable?

 

[bruiser.sixpack]

We are in a War. People die in wars. We need to minimize collateral damage to the older Americans and try to protect our youngsters. Every war we have sent our 18 to 25 year olds off to fight it. We need y’all 25 to 50 years to take the front in this one. Thanks in advance.

 

[msstate7]

We need 200 million infected to reach herd immunity. If the fatality rate is 0.5%, we need 1 million people to die to reach herd immunity. Is this acceptable?

What's the other choice?

 

[mstateglfr]

Some of them are gonna die. Some of them would've died this fall regardless.

Good point.**

 

[TNT.sixpack]

Regardless of what people think about herd immunity - the US is well on its way. We’ve pretty much sheltered all we’re going to shelter. There’s no going back now.

Will be interesting to see if other countries are able to contain this for however long it takes to develop a vaccine without completely wrecking their economies.

I agree. Barring a full blown meltdown, there's not going back now. Reopening was a one time thing and this train won't be stopped.

 

[ckDOG]

200M is way high with a little distancing

We need 200 million infected to reach herd immunity. If the fatality rate is 0.5%, we need 1 million people to die to reach herd immunity. Is this acceptable?

200M might be right if we were reckless and didn't try to mitigate. R0 is approx 2.2 based on recent data. 1 - 1/2.2 = ~55% so you aren't far off. But R0 is closer to 1 with some of the distancing measures going on. There's a world that exists with mobility/capacity reductions/masks that get us to a much better herd immunity before vaccines are available.

 

[mstateglfr]

I suppose that approach might work for young, healthy people with no underlying conditions (we've all become amateur epidemiologists or virologists just from watching television with all the catch phrases), but what about the older folks that have other conditions? Wouldn't they have to wait on the vaccine, and not try to contract the disease on purpose, and while waiting, still be aggressively careful?

Yeah, I'm guessing they would need to wait.
My dad is high risk and hasn't left his property in over 2 months.
We have seen him half a dozen times from at least 10' away in their back yard and thats it.
He said a few weeks ago that if he gets it, its a death sentence.

It sucks, but it looks like that's what we as a country are moving towards- those who are compromised will need to hermit themselves inside or risk their lives.




Its wild to step back and think about what has happened so far this year. Tough to really even imagine.

 

[msstate7]

Yeah, I'm guessing they would need to wait.
My dad is high risk and hasn't left his property in over 2 months.
We have seen him half a dozen times from at least 10' away in their back yard and thats it.
He said a few weeks ago that if he gets it, its a death sentence.

It sucks, but it looks like that's what we as a country are moving towards- those who are compromised will need to hermit themselves inside or risk their lives.




Its wild to step back and think about what has happened so far this year. Tough to really even imagine.

The sad part is that having to go through the measures to protect themselves, high risk individuals are losing quality of life.

 

[We suck again]

Good point.**

It's a fact, your opinion of it doesn't make it false.

 

[campshelbydog842003]

I dont know a lot of 60 year olds with school aged kids.
I do know that a lot in their 60s teach, do admin work at schools, drive busses, and drop/pick their grandchildren up from schools.

And if those 60 plus year olds want to stay at home instead of going to school, they are welcome to do so. Is someone going to force them to teach if they don’t want to?

 

[ckDOG]

Which shortens their years even if they avoid the virus

The sad part is that having to go through the measures to protect themselves, high risk individuals are losing quality of life.

All of this just sucks. I'm praying for a quick turnaround on a vaccine. If I get it between now and then, whatever. I'm okay with my odds (although I prefer to not press them). I'm pissed that my parents and in-laws are holed up in the house away from their only granddaughter. All are recently retired and supposed to be enjoying their golden years. They worked hard for it and now are in limbo with no control over their lives after looking forward to that stage of freedom for decades. It just sucks.

 

[ckDOG]

Let's do it. But we need a General to lead us into battle

We are in a War. People die in wars. We need to minimize collateral damage to the older Americans and try to protect our youngsters. Every war we have sent our 18 to 25 year olds off to fight it. We need y’all 25 to 50 years to take the front in this one. Thanks in advance.

Until then, we are all just a bunch of dopes arguing over who is right.

 

[mstateglfr]

It's a fact, your opinion of it doesn't make it false.

I don't disagree that it is probably an accurate statement.
My sarcastic response was made because though it may be true, it isnt a good point.

Not all accurate comments are good points.

 

[patdog]

We're not well on the way. Only 0.5% of the population has confirmed had the virus so far. We've got a LONG way to go before this is over, barring a major medical breakthrough.

 

[patdog]

There really isn't another choice. We can't shut the whole country down for a year or more. And even if we did, we're probably just postponing the problem.

 

[Len2003]

What's the other choice?

Containment measures. If everyone wears a mask, the transmission rate is 1.5% between 2 people. Wearing a mask is an extremely small trade off to try to get things back to normal.

 

[L4Dawg]

There is some interesting stuff coming from the Teddy Roosevelt today. It isn't isolated stuff either if you have been playing close attention. THAT is truly scary. If it's true, and not false negatives, which the current tests are notorious for, then we better be looking for a treatment. Or where we are IS the new normal. My guess is it's false negatives. The current tests are not really that good. Testing as it isn't now is not the answer.

 

[Dawgzilla]

I read something awhile back claiming that kids get it, very rarely see any real symptoms, and almost never pass it back to adults. But I can't find it on a whim this Friday.

I think everyone understands how herd immunity works... Yes, more people are going to die in getting there the same way they are dying now. It's just a zero sum game at the end of the day in my assumption that we make it there one way or another. There is some promising stuff on vaccines right now and if we can have a good safe one by the fall I might be willing to rethink my scenario. But I just don't think it's possible. Zero chance to test the longterm effects there.

The studies are m ixed. There have been some studies claiming children are not very contagious, and others claiming they are just as contagious as adults. Let's call this issue undetermined.

However, now young children who have been infected are showing up with Kawasaki syndrome, a potentially deadly, multi system inflammatory disease.

There is just so much still unknown. I want things to open up, but it seems irresponsible right now to just say schools should be safe.

 

[Len2003]

There really isn't another choice. We can't shut the whole country down for a year or more. And even if we did, we're probably just postponing the problem.

Are you personally offering yourself or your family to die in an attempt to reach herd immunity without a vaccine?

 

[ckDOG]

Very small.

Containment measures. If everyone wears a mask, the transmission rate is 1.5% between 2 people. Wearing a mask is an extremely small trade off to try to get things back to normal.

But ******** can't be arsed to wear a 17ing mask and then want ***** about how the economy is going to hell in a hand basket. Pick 1: a mild inconvenience or shutdowns. Throw your idealogical nitpicks out the window and wear the damn mask. Some of us want things to get back to somewhat normal before a vaccine (assuming one happens).

 

[L4Dawg]

Are you personally offering yourself or your family to die in an attempt to reach herd immunity without a vaccine?

Of course he is. It's only the flu after all.****