Hawkeyes at #21 in cfp

DukeSlater

All-Conference
Jul 2, 2023
1,912
4,504
113
That's just one example of why the CFP rankings are the best ever.
Agree. For one thing, the teams have played enough games to get an actual sense of who they are. Second, if you're ranked #20, lose in the final seconds to #9 by two points, are you a worse team than you were before? No. In fact, you may have proved yourselves even more. So #21 makes sense.
 

BigOHawk1

Senior
Oct 27, 2001
476
898
93
Is there a slim path if we win out? Hmm..a win Saturday and Id think we jump up about 5 spots? Dammit the what ifs here are maddening indeed.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Stoopsbrother

Burgers

Sophomore
Jul 22, 2025
48
118
33
Is there a slim path if we win out? Hmm..a win Saturday and Id think we jump up about 5 spots? Dammit the what ifs here are maddening indeed.

ESPN's FPI gives Iowa a 4.3% chance of reaching the playoffs, which is better than I would have thought. I don't see any clear path, but maybe it's not a 0% chance?

Even if we win out, I'm not sure we would have a win against a top 25 team unless (1) USC beats Oregon, or (2) USC stays ranked despite 4 losses (assuming Oregon beats USC). We'd have zero bad losses, but without any signature wins I don't see how they could put Iowa in the playoff.
 
  • Like
Reactions: LetsGoHawks83

Franisdaman

Heisman
Nov 3, 2012
15,979
24,353
113
We would have to finish ranked 10th or better because if we finish #11 or #12, the ACC champion and the highest ranked Group of 5 team would take the #11 and #12 seeds.

Check out what follows. #21 IOWA has too big of a hill to climb and not enough time to get ranked #10 or better by the CFP Committee.

The 10 top ranked teams get the projected CFP seeds #1 thru #10.

However:

#11 ranked Oklahoma (7-2) is OUT (replaced by projected ACC champion Miami, 7-2)

#12 ranked BYU (8-1) is OUT (replaced by projected highest ranked Group of 5 team, South Florida, 7-2)

Click or tap on image for a LARGER VIEW.


 

BigOHawk1

Senior
Oct 27, 2001
476
898
93
SO CLOSE to being 7-2 or 8-1 (it's hard to win EVERY game; just look what it took for Oregon to win at Ped State and at IOWA).
Just think, win ANY of those three (Oregon/Indiana/ISU) and we still control our CFP destiny...so mind numbing yet so proud of Iowa starting to change the national narrative. MG is such a warrior and leader of this offense, just imagine having MG with Lester during the Petras/Hill time at Iowa!

You are right, barring chaos too big of a hill to climb and we will have our hands FULL this weekend - several of those teams above us WILL lose again, including hopefully USC to us, Michigan to OSU, Virginia, GTech, etc.
 

HawksRule73

All-Conference
Jun 26, 2025
606
1,636
93
Just think, win ANY of those three (Oregon/Indiana/ISU) and we still control our CFP destiny...so mind numbing yet so proud of Iowa starting to change the national narrative. MG is such a warrior and leader of this offense, just imagine having MG with Lester during the Petras/Hill time at Iowa!

You are right, barring chaos too big of a hill to climb and we will have our hands FULL this weekend - several of those teams above us WILL lose again, including hopefully USC to us, Michigan to OSU, Virginia, GTech, etc.
If we had Gronowski, KJ, and this OL....we would be undefeated right now.
 

Franisdaman

Heisman
Nov 3, 2012
15,979
24,353
113
Just think, win ANY of those three (Oregon/Indiana/ISU) and we still control our CFP destiny...so mind numbing yet so proud of Iowa starting to change the national narrative. MG is such a warrior and leader of this offense, just imagine having MG with Lester during the Petras/Hill time at Iowa!

You are right, barring chaos too big of a hill to climb and we will have our hands FULL this weekend - several of those teams above us WILL lose again, including hopefully USC to us, Michigan to OSU, Virginia, GTech, etc.

IF Mark had been healthy for spring ball....ughhhh
 
  • Like
Reactions: BigOHawk1

WeBeHerkin

All-American
Aug 5, 2016
4,516
5,151
113
Check out what follows. #21 IOWA has too big of a hill to climb and not enough time to get ranked #10 or better by the CFP Committee.

The 10 top ranked teams get the projected CFP seeds #1 thru #10.

However:

#11 ranked Oklahoma (7-2) is OUT (replaced by projected ACC champion Miami, 7-2)

#12 ranked BYU (8-1) is OUT (replaced by projected highest ranked Group of 5 team, South Florida, 7-2)

Click or tap on image for a LARGER VIEW.


I would love it if Oklahoma got screwed. Maybe we could bowl against them.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Franisdaman

WeBeHerkin

All-American
Aug 5, 2016
4,516
5,151
113
Welp there will be a crap ton of players hitting the portal in a few weeks time for those not in CFP. Let's see who all takes the jump and Iowa will have a little more time to look at the players.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Franisdaman

Stoopsbrother

Senior
Dec 15, 2022
255
420
63
Is there a slim path if we win out? Hmm..a win Saturday and Id think we jump up about 5 spots? Dammit the what ifs here are maddening indeed.
yes slim but not impossible! Need to win out obviously then need Oklahoma, Texas, Miami, Vandy & ND to drop one more,
 

Franisdaman

Heisman
Nov 3, 2012
15,979
24,353
113
yes slim but not impossible! Need to win out obviously then need Oklahoma, Texas, Miami, Vandy & ND to drop one more,

The CFP Committee likes/respects our team....and I think they like and respect KF. :)

I just don't know if going 9-3 allows us to leapfrog 11 teams.

 

Franisdaman

Heisman
Nov 3, 2012
15,979
24,353
113
9-3 might get us to the top 15.

Had we beaten EITHER IU or Oregon at home? Ughhh.....

Check this out & watch:

 

Franisdaman

Heisman
Nov 3, 2012
15,979
24,353
113
21% chance to make the CFP if Iowa wins out....not so sure about that....

Check this out & watch:



Skip ahead to the 10:00 mark:

 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Stoopsbrother