The point spread does not matter.
Rutgers will play a solid game and beat Michigan!
Rutgers will play a solid game and beat Michigan!
Guess the UM opening line
- Thread starter RUfanSinceAnderson
- Start date
Mich -2.5… we can’t throw the ball in the ocean but anyone that thinks this spread gets north of -4 I have a bridge to sell you
Buela: "Now that penis had a mole on it"....Principal Carter: "Five young boys in the nude, a police line-up so that you can identify his tallywhacker."
Yes, you are known for never overreacting.
So Las Vegas is not smarter than the emotional fan?
Vegas isn’t ignoring the team that won at PSU or won at Wisconsin without Caleb.
Most fans are though.
Vegas just want even money on both sides.
Seems like a weak line though and hammer Michigan
So if the betting world agrees with RU fans the line would need to be 5 1/2?
The betting world doesn’t agree with whiny emotional Rutgers fans.
The betting world doesn’t agree with whiny emotional Rutgers fans.
Anyone who bets against Rutgers because they say it is a sure thing is dumb because
1. They are short sighted and letting emotions get involved in a decsion
2. Really stupid because they must be placing a bet against their favorite team only because they think it is a wise investment decision. IT IS NOT A ZERO SUM GAME. EVERYONE IS A LOSER!
1. They are short sighted and letting emotions get involved in a decsion
2. Really stupid because they must be placing a bet against their favorite team only because they think it is a wise investment decision. IT IS NOT A ZERO SUM GAME. EVERYONE IS A LOSER!
Also they could just bet on other games and they could lose 4.5% of their money without even needing to leave the house. Driving to PA to flip coins and get less than even odds on it is pretty epic failure.
I don't disagree, I'm considering the audience here: emotional fans.
1 side of my brain says we have a 35% chance of winning and the other side is concerned we get shutout.
Counterpoint: Watching your team lose and winning money is better than watching your team lose and not winning money.
Let’s be real. Vegas is just an algorithm that uses metrics to set their lines and has been off by double digit points (compared to the final result) for most Rutgers games this month. We are not as good as our metrics.
To me *personally*, my big bets this year were ML when we were the favorite. Michigan (+200), Minnesota (+310), Northwestern (+180).
Rutgers win the game, we're safely in the tournament, and I don't even remember the losing bet.
Rutgers loses, and you at least have enough for a nice steak dinner (at it turns out, several steak dinners).
For these games, I don't care about ATS, just the W.
Rutgers win the game, we're safely in the tournament, and I don't even remember the losing bet.
Rutgers loses, and you at least have enough for a nice steak dinner (at it turns out, several steak dinners).
For these games, I don't care about ATS, just the W.
You did, past tense. That doesn't mean doing that tomorrow is a winning proposition.
Yes, the word "if" is important.
You literally said you aren’t winning money. So you’re allowed to work with definites but no one else is? Interesting.
You might win money on the individual bet. You might win money on a hand of blackjack. If you are any of the people proposing to bet against Rutgers in this thread, neither is a winning bet.
You’re talking yourself in circles. If this people bet Michigan and win then they win money. Weird hill to die on.
And if they bet on Michigan and lose they lose money. If they bet on Michigan today, they will lose money in expectation because they have no edge.
So no matter what michigan does you still lose money? Lol this is the most hard headed thing I’ve ever heard.
Also, if your thing is paying a 4.5% premium for emotional insurance, I'd recommend using the moneyline. Would be pretty hilarious to take Michigan -2.5 and then get middled when they beat us by 1 or 2.
Anybody that makes a wager on the the Rutgers-Michigan has an expected rate of return of -5%
You honestly don't know what the words "in expectation" mean, do you, lol?
I'll offer you a bet right now.. I've got a coin
Heads I pay you $100
Tails you pay me $200
If you take that bet are you winning or losing money? (Or is this an unknowable question until you see the result of the flip lol?)
Why are you assuming people are taking Michigan ml instead of the spread? It’s gotta be so hard thinking you’re the smartest guy in the room and trying to prove it online all day every day lol
They have no edge if Vegas has the correct rating for Rutgers (and Michigan to a lesser extent). I think you can make the case they don't. If you look at Big Ten game data Michigan's efficiency margin is +6.6, Rutgers is +1.2 and I think you can argue their true rating (post-Mag) should be lower.
Of course there's no way (for a human or a computer) to know if Rutgers has a 30% chance or a 45% chance. The computer will undoubtedly be better in the long run, which is not what we're talking about here.