Give me one guaranteed SEC win besides...
- Thread starter 57stratdawg
- Start date
I think LSU @ home, A&M on the road, and UM @ home are going to be our next three easiest SEC games. Not sure about Mizzou. If A&M weren't away, I'd go with A&M, but I guess I'll have to go with LSU. They have a new DC and probably still won't have had time to figure out their QB situation. I think b/w UM's defense being good and it being a rivalry game, it will still be tough even though it's at home.
Let's look at it the other way. Give me one guaranteed SEC loss?....
The league is so tough top to bottom, in particular the west, that there are very few games so lopsided that they can be deemed 'guaranteed wins' and that goes for everybody. On the other hand, it is a wonderful testament to our program's achievement that we can TRULY be expected to be very competitive in every game we play.
Surely there are games that we will be clear underdogs. But not one that can be considered not winnable even minus maroon colored glasses. That is a rarity for our program historically speaking.
The league is so tough top to bottom, in particular the west, that there are very few games so lopsided that they can be deemed 'guaranteed wins' and that goes for everybody. On the other hand, it is a wonderful testament to our program's achievement that we can TRULY be expected to be very competitive in every game we play.
Surely there are games that we will be clear underdogs. But not one that can be considered not winnable even minus maroon colored glasses. That is a rarity for our program historically speaking.
I know there will be games the betting line will be against us. But I don't see a single game on our schedule I give us less than a 50% chance to win.
Last lines I saw had us underdog in every SEC game. There was a thread on here a while back.
I wouldn't say huge. I think we were a 2 to 5 point underdog in most games with Arkansas being an exception. It was up around 9 or 10. I don't remember the Auburn game though.
I'd argue we have >50% chance of losing at home to Alabama and on the road at Auburn. History and Vegas would agree with me. If I had to guess, it'll probably be another hearbreaker on the plains. They just have our number there....We have a very good football team but with our schedule, I'm just not sure it's set up well for us to win more than 8 this year.
I think Bama is way overrated this year. They lost just about everyone from their offense and their defense was terrible at the end of last season. I see 8-9 wins for them. Which is a good season for just about anyone else with their schedule, but they'll see it as a disaster.
Arky scares the hell out of me. They're more than just the rush.
If someone doesn't cover Hunter Henry this year...
ole miss has got to be up there. they are simply a slower, less explosive team on natural grass. their game is built for speed and their home turf plays in their favor. always has, but the flip side is they lose the games played on natural grass more often than not when playing decent competition. they played 3 games on natural grass last year....vandy at LP field (incompetent pushover), aTm (a very mediocre team), and lsu (slightly above mediocre). Secondary to the obvious benefit of playing in front of your home crowd and sleeping in your own bed etc, the turf has been a huge factor in the egg bowl in my opinion. over they years, they simply dont play to the same level on natural grass and that isnt going to change any time soon. they have really struggled on natural grass over the last decade, and i recall they had quite a long losing streak on natural grass going back a few seasons.
edit to add: not that om is going to be as easy as some of us appear to think, however, given the above, i think it is in our favor.
next tier, i would say @ mizzou and @ aTm and LSU. johnny football isnt walking through that door anytime soon and mizzou just seems like a team we match up well with, but people have underestimated them before to their peril. LSU for the reasons already mentioned.
edit to add: not that om is going to be as easy as some of us appear to think, however, given the above, i think it is in our favor.
next tier, i would say @ mizzou and @ aTm and LSU. johnny football isnt walking through that door anytime soon and mizzou just seems like a team we match up well with, but people have underestimated them before to their peril. LSU for the reasons already mentioned.
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Except for the UK game, why wouldn't we be underdogs?....
It goes along with the prediction of last in the west which is predicated on the facts we lost more of our starting line up than anyone else and we have historically sucked. A lot of our team is an unknown entity right now and preseason predictions & lines are all based on 1) proven entities and 2) pedigree. For returning players we have Dak which is a huge plus but have question marks at RB, OL, DL, LB, DC, and a secondary that had a bad habit of folding in the 4th quarter. Regarding pedigree, we are not named bama, auburn, LSU, or UGA so we will not get the benefit of the doubt. Without Dak we would probably be predicted to lose 8 or 9.
With all that said, what it really means is preseason spreads, while already basically worthless, are even more so with us until we play a game or two.
It goes along with the prediction of last in the west which is predicated on the facts we lost more of our starting line up than anyone else and we have historically sucked. A lot of our team is an unknown entity right now and preseason predictions & lines are all based on 1) proven entities and 2) pedigree. For returning players we have Dak which is a huge plus but have question marks at RB, OL, DL, LB, DC, and a secondary that had a bad habit of folding in the 4th quarter. Regarding pedigree, we are not named bama, auburn, LSU, or UGA so we will not get the benefit of the doubt. Without Dak we would probably be predicted to lose 8 or 9.
With all that said, what it really means is preseason spreads, while already basically worthless, are even more so with us until we play a game or two.
I look at this game two ways. If we're having a good season up to this point, I don't think we play at the optimum level in Fayetteville, mainly because it's pre-Egg Bowl week.
If our season turns out to be as predicted, we may be in a different frame of mind and play well enough to win in Fayetteville to try and get bowl eligible.
It all depends on our mental state for this one.
By definition, that would mean you would expect to be favored (or that you should be) in all 12 games. Is that what you're feeling?
I like FPI, because I'm a numbers guy, but I also like the way it gives you a number for each match up, just to get the argument started.
Just to give you the numbers they have, so you can alter how you would put it, this is what they have for you:
@ USM - 84.2%
LSU - 29.2%
NW State - 99.3%
@Auburn - 28.2%
@Texas A&M - 20.4%
Troy - 96.9%
La. Tech - 77.1%
Kentucky - 69.9%
@Missouri - 40.1%
Alabama - 27.7%
@Arkansas - 21.5%
Ole Miss - 33.5%
Where would you have those on a game by game if you were to put similar numbers out there?
That has you an underdog in 7 games, but it has your total probability at 6.3 wins and 5.7 losses, due to the fact that the underdogs aren't as dramatic as the ones you're favored to win.
For the record, there are quite a few of those that I would bump by at least 10% or so myself, with no analytics behind it, in particular the Egg Bowl, USM, and Arkansas on the road.
A lot higher than they do. As you point out, the fact they have us at only 84.2% for the USM game shows their method is ********. I see us at 9-3, but don't have any games I see as worse than a tossup for us. A quick stab at it:
@ USM - 95%
LSU - 80%
NW State - 99%
@Auburn - 50%
@Texas A&M - 70%
Troy - 97%
La. Tech - 95%
Kentucky - 75%
@Missouri - 55%
Alabama - 55%
@Arkansas - 60%
Ole Miss - 60%
@ USM - 95%
LSU - 80%
NW State - 99%
@Auburn - 50%
@Texas A&M - 70%
Troy - 97%
La. Tech - 95%
Kentucky - 75%
@Missouri - 55%
Alabama - 55%
@Arkansas - 60%
Ole Miss - 60%
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