Does 1 BTT win move the needle at all? I can see 3, or even 2 improving things. But 1, would that not be against a bad team, therefore really just going par for the course and not really improving anything? I am not versed at all in the subject matter!
If we qualify for the BTT, which would obviously happen by going 3-0 from here on out, the first game will be quad 2 in the NET, which would be added to quad 2 (Iowa), quad 1 (UCLA) and quad 1 (Maryland) wins. There wouldn't be many bubble teams with those kind of results down the stretch. Of course it also depends a lot on other teams near the bubble, stolen auto bids, etc.
I think winning the next 3 + 1 BTT gets us to the very edge, and it could go either way. 3 + 2 we're at least in Dayton.
There's also probably some scenario that allows for a loss to Maryland and still being in the Dayton discussion with 2 home wins and 2 BTT wins. Also could conceivably lose to UCLA and beat Maryland and have the same scenario. Losing either home game would require beating Maryland to keep any glimmer of hope. Going 1-2 not only shuts the door but might even leave us out of the BTT.