Frost Quote: Caution
- Thread starter WestCoastCornhusker2
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Michigan does have a lot of highly recruited players on their offense returning. Their offensive line was decent but nothing special, and their receivers were the same. They lost a lot of their elite talent on defense that's going to be all but impossible to replace at the same level. Sure it's the goal to replace the guys you have with better guys next year but that doesn't always happen. All teams have a lot of question marks at this time of the year. In Michigan's case, they will most likely be trying to figure out how they can maintain a good defense with far less talented guys than they had last year.
How many Big 10 championships has Michigan or PSU won recently? Having 50 4 star players isn't a guarantee you're going to win anything either. I bet Michigan and PSU have a lot more 4 stars on their offense than we do, yet we will most likely have a better offense than both of them.
That is a lame argument. Penn St won in 2016. Just two seasons ago. And you are proving my point, Penn St and Michigan are losing the division to Ohio St. The team with the most talent in the league.
Again your backward argument has no validity. Having 50 4 star players doesn't meant you are guaranteed to win titles. Not having 45 to 50 4 star players means you won't.
Like I said before, buying a lottery ticket doesn't guarantee you'll win the lottery, but you don't win the lottery unless you buy a ticket.
How many titles has the West division of the Big Ten won since it went to East and West? What is Wisconsin's record against Ohio St, Michigan and Penn St since the league went to divisions? What about Iowa? You know the west division with with all of the teams who don't recruit in the top 15 and rely on diamonds in the rough and development?
Wisconsin is the only current Big Ten west team to win a Big Ten title. They won the first one when they beat Michigan St, they won that division because Fickel was coaching Ohio St to a 6-7 record and Penn St was smack dab in the middle of the Sandusky thing. Penn St still tied for the division title that year. Then they won the next year when they were the 3rd best team in their division and finished behind Ohio St and Penn St who were ineligible.
Teams with elite players also develop talent. Meyer, Dabo, Saban, Harbaugh, Franklin, Smart, just to name a few, they all develop talent.
If you gave Frost Clemson's talent or Alabama's talent, you don't think he would make those players even better?
It's a pretty lame argument to use only the current divisions and not the teams that have won since we joined the conference. Wisconsin and Michigan State who have recruited at a level on par or below us have won more Big 10 championships than Michigan or Penn State.
Your argument that you need 50 4 star players to win a Big 10 championship is BS because it's already been done multiple times by teams that had nowhere near that amount.
In the case of Harbaugh at Michigan - It is difficult when you have Ohio State as a top 5-10 team every - not many teams are going to fair very well if the metric by which they are judged is how they fair against a team that is perennially a national championship contender. It will be interesting to see how Frost's first 4 years compare to Harbaugh's. Comparing year 1 shows 4 wins vs 10 wins.
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I tend to think it’s equally lame (not to mention arrogant) to say I know better than all the recruiting services that our players are equal to Michigan/Penn State’s players because of what I see.
You can say our players are bigger and stronger, and you can say we have improved, and that’s true. But that doesn’t mean Michigan and Penn state’s players have been stagnant. They have improved as well. Or have you been watching them also and have come to the conclusion that they haven’t gotten any stronger?
I know, Michigan lost a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball... but they also have one of the best DCs in the game who knows how to cover up holes better than most. Their defense won’t all of a sudden drop to only 50th in the nation... they will still be a top 20 defense. Will we be a top 20 defense?
By the end of the Riley regime, the NU Football was approaching the Blue Blood equivalent of Gray Gardens. Expectations have always been high in Lincoln, with some exceptions (like former AD Eichorst). Nothing wrong with high expectations. If you don't have them, they will not be achieved.
These recruiting arguments are all one of the same theme. The numbers are hard to explain away: those teams that recruit well win. Some are better on the field than at recruiting and others are better at recruiting. And of course, some teams have gaudy recruiting classes and find ways year after year to underachieve. They are of no consequence, as no trophies are given nor banners hung for top recruiting classes. When Frost was at Oregon, they were a better team on the field, although their recruiting was certainly decent. So Frost may have some ideas in terms of maximizing a roster's productivity.
I would like better recruiting classes. But more than that, I would like to watch a season where NU is in every game and I am not tempted to change the channel or leave the stadium in the third quarter.
https://deadspin.com/chart-which-ncaa-football-teams-outplay-their-recruit-1640831522
Saying up front that I am partial to your stance wrt recruiting. But the issue of player development is interesting. Just as some schools are better at recruiting, some are better at adding value to players that already qualify to be on a P5 roster. On the flipside, a team like Texas went years stacking blue chip talent only to under perform on the field. There are plenty of kids who garner high ratings in HS, only to realize they have little upside for improvement once they hit a college program. How many NU players have had you wondering how they ever were rated as a Rivals 4*?
I suspect in order to compete for the big hardware that Frost and NU will have to up their recruiting effort and maximize player development.
There you go. They will likely be a top 20 defense because they have a great defensive coordinator. We likely won't because we don't have a top defensive coordinator. Teams don't just keep getting better and better each year. Some teams get better, some teams drop off, and some teams remain the same.
Michigan and PSU are likely going to drop off a little bit since they lost a lot of talent and we're likely to get better since we gained a lot of talent.
And you treat the recruiting services like their gods. I'm guessing half the people who do their evaluations have never played a down of football. Like one of the other posters on here said, a lot of the people who work for the recruiting services are just dorks behind a computer screen.
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hey! that's me!
but, also, I'm not sure I agree that good defensive coordinator = good defense. we're the fastest team in the B1G, which puts quite a bit of pressure on the defense from a traditional metrics standpoint.
I think you missed my point... they lost talent on defense, sure, but they still have a ton of talent returning, even if they didn’t all start. Good coaching turns inexperienced high-level talent into formidable players, and michigan’s Defense will be fine next year because of the combination of the two. They will not have as big a drop off as you think.
EDIT: have you watched Michigan players to be able to say that our players are as good as theirs? If all you’re basing this on is the improvement of our players, how do you know that our players are just as good as Michigan’s players? That’s where your argument breaks down to me.
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I watched their team last year. Against Notre Dame, their 4 and 5 star linemen got abused. Michigan loses Bush, Winovich, and Gary, and David Long on defense. Although I still think their defense will be good, that's a major dropoff in talent when you have to replace guys like that. Besides those guys, I didn't see anyone else that was special or any reason to believe they're more talented than the guys we have returning.
And Notre Dame made the college football playoffs… I guess I would counter with last year was last year. Our guys were abused last year as well. But this year they look different. Same could happen with Michigan players… I’m just not yet ready to say we are at their level.
I think it hard for fans to not compare us to other blue bloods who have rebuilt...but the post-Riley Huskers were in historically terrible shape, for any program. The lack of a scholarship qb and a defense with no NFL talent and no confidence set up to be a real disaster for whomever took over. Fortunately the ship has been righted and the schedule is favorable to give the appearance of improvement. It will take four full cycles though to fix the horrible recruiting and attrition that came from the era of Mike.
That's fair. I don't think we're at their level yet either, but I don't think it's just because of talent or that we couldn't get to their level becauase of our talent. One advantage Michigan does have is they have a lot of juniors and seniors as starters while with the attrition we've had we need to rely on more freshman. That's of course going to give the advantage to Michigan even if our talent was equal.