If Small pitches Friday, he is NOT available Tuesday. I don't know why people keep posting this.
Friday Pitching - Billingsley or Small?
- Thread starter MSUDC11
- Start date
If Small pitches Friday, he is NOT available Tuesday. I don't know why people keep posting this.
Here are a few things
I think you can make a fair case for starting Small, JB or France. It is no secret Small has been our most consistent arm and gives us the best chance. I also realize France is electric and dominant in his two starts. But I go with JB.
Billingsley has pitched in some very big baseball games and been clutch or had a good result in a lot of them. He won a big game at USC last year and pitched great. He had one of the most clutch performances last year v USM in an elimination game. He did his job against Florida. He did his job in Tallahassee a few weeks back. He did his job in Nashville. He is a senior that has some big moments in his past. He has earned the ball in my opinion. His numbers aren't always eye catching but he has earned good results in big moments. He has the ability to get 75 pitches in and keep us in it. Given it's a winner bracket scenario, I try to win Friday with JB followed by any number of bullpen arms. If we have to play Saturday, you're left with Small against a team that's an extra game.
That leaves Small for Monday. If Small has to pitch Saturday, then it leaves KP. France could go Tuesday. And I'd see what is left Wednesday.
But I sure like the idea of seeing Small and KP going 1-2 Monday and Tuesday. And I'd only pitch Small if we play Saturday.
I see the validity in all three options though. You can make a legit case for them all.
I think you can make a fair case for starting Small, JB or France. It is no secret Small has been our most consistent arm and gives us the best chance. I also realize France is electric and dominant in his two starts. But I go with JB.
Billingsley has pitched in some very big baseball games and been clutch or had a good result in a lot of them. He won a big game at USC last year and pitched great. He had one of the most clutch performances last year v USM in an elimination game. He did his job against Florida. He did his job in Tallahassee a few weeks back. He did his job in Nashville. He is a senior that has some big moments in his past. He has earned the ball in my opinion. His numbers aren't always eye catching but he has earned good results in big moments. He has the ability to get 75 pitches in and keep us in it. Given it's a winner bracket scenario, I try to win Friday with JB followed by any number of bullpen arms. If we have to play Saturday, you're left with Small against a team that's an extra game.
That leaves Small for Monday. If Small has to pitch Saturday, then it leaves KP. France could go Tuesday. And I'd see what is left Wednesday.
But I sure like the idea of seeing Small and KP going 1-2 Monday and Tuesday. And I'd only pitch Small if we play Saturday.
I see the validity in all three options though. You can make a legit case for them all.
Exactly. The only way you can guarantee that Small pitches at all in the championship series is if you save him and we win Friday.
Scenario 1 - Pitch Small and we win.
We make championship series, but Small is unavailable until Wednesday, which means we may not get to use him if we lose Mon and Tues. Must win Small’s start plus one of first two to get to use him.
Scenario 2 - Pitch Small and we lose
Worst case scenario. Have to burn as many arms as needed on Saturday (including Pilk, if need be) to get to championship series, and still don’t have Small until Wednesday. Also, a much less likely chance of getting that far if Pilk has to throw more than an inning or two on Saturday (we’d have no Pilk and no Small for either of first two games).
Scenario 3 - Start France or Billingsley and we win.
Best case scenario. Keeps both Pilk and Small on full rest for games 1 and 2, and all of pen should be available after 2 days rest.
Scenario 4 - Start France or Billingsley and we lose.
We have to throw Small in elimination game. Should still have some pen available with only one game between now and then. If we lose, nothing past that matters. If we win, we can MAYBE bring Small back on Wednesday for a shorter start on 3 days rest, or out of the pen for a few innings in the same game if we have to.
To me, it’s a no-brainer. The best case scenario for our final 4-5 games involves not starting Small. The worst case scenario does involve starting Small. And, there is not a whole lot of difference in the other two scenarios as it relates to Small’s availability in the championship series (both involve him throwing on short rest in the final game only). If we want to play to win the championship (not just make the championship series), I think its best to hold Small and throw someone else on Friday.
I would pitch Billingsley. He has had some big moments for us and even if he isn't on we have a fresh bullpen. The key is to get him out of the game quickly. Plus if we lose in an elimination game we would have the option of pitching France or Small against someone that probably isn't the other teams ace which would favor us.
Plus, I'm haunted by us not be able to throw Graveman in the National Championship series. I don't want to be in that situation again if we can possibly avoid it.
And then trying to think ahead if we win we can then go Small, Pilkington, and then I would go with France in a game three rather than pitch JB on short rest. I say that not knowing how many pitches JB would throw on Friday because that would definitely influence the strategy on that. If he goes 50-60 pitches he could come back on four days rest vs him throwing 100 pitches and four days rest.
There are some unknowns and assumptions about what the other teams will do which we just don't know yet that could influence decision making too.
Plus, I'm haunted by us not be able to throw Graveman in the National Championship series. I don't want to be in that situation again if we can possibly avoid it.
And then trying to think ahead if we win we can then go Small, Pilkington, and then I would go with France in a game three rather than pitch JB on short rest. I say that not knowing how many pitches JB would throw on Friday because that would definitely influence the strategy on that. If he goes 50-60 pitches he could come back on four days rest vs him throwing 100 pitches and four days rest.
There are some unknowns and assumptions about what the other teams will do which we just don't know yet that could influence decision making too.
It’s all a gamble, but I think Billingsley is the safest gamble. He has proven he can show up when needed, and he is seasoned. I can’t see him getting intimidated or nervous on this stage. If he gets into trouble or his pitch count gets up, you’ve got France then can go to Gordon, Neff, James, McQuary, etc. You’ve got a full bullpen of guys who have proven they can be trusted, so piece together whatever you have to.
I think starting Small is a bigger gamble when looking at the big picture. That could burn you harder on the backend when we have a solid chance to win with Billingsley and the bullpen.
I think starting Small is a bigger gamble when looking at the big picture. That could burn you harder on the backend when we have a solid chance to win with Billingsley and the bullpen.
Isn't this is exactly what we did with Graveman in 2013. Then, he NEVER pitched in the finals because we didn't get to game 3.
Gotta play to win the finals. JB is option #1 with France as #2. Win Friday and then Small and Pilk are set to start the finals.
I agree. You need to pitch a 3 man rotation to have a chance to win it all. I say go with Billingsley and have France and Neff ready for the second game. This is not a do or die game, so there is no need to hit the panic button and start pitching starters out of rotation. I would only bring Small out if we are in a pickle in the do or die game. We need to try and save Small and Pilk for the first 2 games of the finals at their full strength.
MacNamee's walk-off helps us forget some of the 'drama' of the Vandy Super game one. JP France came in and pitched .2 of an inning, faced 7 batters .. gave up 2 hits, 3 Base on balls, 3 Earned Runs, and a wild pitch.
ERA in that game + ~45.0.
YES he would be available Tuesday on 4 days rest (not 3 days).
I do not know why some folks have posted he would only be on
3 days rest as that is incorrect.
Obiviously we have to win our bracket to play Monday.
We should go with the hottest handed “bump guy” we
have and that is Mr Small.
Ahh .. yea, we only scored 1 run in two games BUT we ALSO gave up 11 runs in 2 games (1-3, 0-8) and our BEST pitcher, Kendall Graveman (who is now pitching in the majors) didn't throw a single pitch 'cause he threw that Friday night game.
JB had pitched pretty well during the postseason. I think I'd go to him in our next game with the full bullpen available. If we lose that game, we're pitching Small in the do or die game on a normal full week's rest. I'm not sure that I'd be comfortable with using Small this Friday OR Saturday then pitching him at all in the Championship series based on how recently he's off TJ surgery. Even if we threw him Friday then saved him for Game 3 of the championship, that would be 4 days rest.
I definitely understand starting him Friday and trying to get something from him if we got to Game 3 of the championship series though.
I definitely understand starting him Friday and trying to get something from him if we got to Game 3 of the championship series though.
Tuesday would be 3 days rest. You don't count either day he pitches. He probably would not be available Tuesday if he pitches Friday. He would be available Wednesday. But you still have to go with Small on Friday. If you lose 0-2 in the finals and don't use him, you weren't going to win it anyway if you did save him for Monday. Right now, you have to get to the finals, which isn't going to be easy even with the 2-0 start.
France should not have been used in that game and I said so in the game thread before his first pitch. He was on 3 days rest after throwing 83 pitches after his start against OU.
I don’t really follow this logic at all. Small is the best pitcher on the team. It’s not unrealistic at all to think he could turn a potential L into a W by pitching in one of the first two games as opposed to not pitching. Then anything can happen in Game 3. You have to make sure you can fire your biggest gun in the championship series if you have an opportunity to do so.
We pitched well enough in Game 1 to get to a Game 3 with Graveman pitching. Offense is what got us swept, not pitching. Besides, even if he HAD pitched Game 1 and thrown a shutout, we will would have lost in 3 games anyway. And you're completely ignoring the downside to trying to hold your ace for Game 1 of the finals, which is he very well may not be available to start ANY game in the finals.
Just like anything can happen in Game 1 or Game 2. If you can't win either of those games without your ace, you're not winning Game 3 without him just because you saved him for Game 1. And, as I just mentioned in another post, if you don't pitch him on Friday, you run a very real risk that he won't be available to start ANY game in the finals. Only way to use your ace twice is to pitch him Friday and Wednesday. And using your ace twice is much better than using him once.
No, its not the same thing as anything happening in Game 1 or 2. Whoever wins the other bracket is throwing their best guys in those games. We need to do the same if we can. By the time Game 3 rolls around (if it does), both teams will be out of a lot of pitching (at least from the bullpen). So, it is more of a wildcard.
Nope, didn't read the thread. Saw the title, saw CEO's response in thread view and posted to agree with him. I'm fine discussing coaching decisions here and there, but not really into the detail some seem to want to go into. Just personal preference. Live and let live.
IF their ace is available. Can't assume they breeze through undefeated without using him a second time. Also can't assume your #3 will even win Game 6 anyway, in which case you're really screwed because you won't have your ace for Game 1 or Game 2 anyway, and you'll have to come back with your #3 in Game 3, after pitching your #4 in Game 2. Pitching Billingsley works out great if he wins, and I hope he does. But if he loses, you really put yourself in an unnecessarily difficult situation.
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