Foresters.. pulp wood question

[xxxWalkTheDawg]

With this run on paper products worldwide combined with a slowdown in lumber production that results in scrap used by paper mills, how is the price forecast on pulp wood looking?

The family has a couple stands that is in dire need of thinning but we would be damn near giving it away. At some point we were going to have to weigh the cost - benefit of the price vs the drag on growth of the rest of it.

So looking for a silver lining here, is the price about to move?

 

[Marler]

Bump to get opinions on chip and saw as well

 

[jack daniels dog]

You mean Pup Wood, as my dad always called it ha ha.....

 

[dorndawg]

You could see a *slight* uptick in paperwood prices but I wouldn't look for much. By slight I mean $1/ton or less. Tissue is a fairly durable good so everyone buying extra just won't buy as much in coming months.

Sawmills provide a lot of chips to paper mills as well but lumber is in the crapper for the time being so I wouldn't look for any extra on chip-n-saw or sawlogs.

 

[BigWorm.sixpack]

With this run on paper products worldwide combined with a slowdown in lumber production that results in scrap used by paper mills, how is the price forecast on pulp wood looking?

The family has a couple stands that is in dire need of thinning but we would be damn near giving it away. At some point we were going to have to weigh the cost - benefit of the price vs the drag on growth of the rest of it.

So looking for a silver lining here, is the price about to move?

First, there is not a slow down in lumber production. There are sawmills going up everywhere in the Southeast, in large part because these Canadian mills are moving South and opening up mega-mills because a huge chunk of Canadian timber has been wiped out due to infestation.

Second, there is plenty of Southern Yellow Pine in our area. Even though lumber prices shot thru the roof in 2018, stem prices (the tree itself) remained steady and relatively cheap and have stayed that way up to today.

Because of all the chip mills around, these paper companies have most all these chip producers on a quota and can only take so much. Again, plenty of supply.

 

[GreaterCowbell]

I wouldn't bet on much relief in the pulp market. We're still looking at a 2.3-2.5 growth to drain ratio statewide. The market it horribly over-supplied. Any increase in demand will be immediately met, thus no increase in price. But at least you may be able to get rid of it until the summer quotas kick in.

 

[xxxWalkTheDawg]

First, there is not a slow down in lumber production. There are sawmills going up everywhere in the Southeast, in large part because these Canadian mills are moving South and opening up mega-mills because a huge chunk of Canadian timber has been wiped out due to infestation.

Second, there is plenty of Southern Yellow Pine in our area. Even though lumber prices shot thru the roof in 2018, stem prices (the tree itself) remained steady and relatively cheap and have stayed that way up to today.

Because of all the chip mills around, these paper companies have most all these chip producers on a quota and can only take so much. Again, plenty of supply.

I didn’t mean lumber production as a whole was slowing, just meant as a result of the recent events obviously slowing production for a short while while pulp is in need from the paper mills.

 

[PhredPhantom]

This is just my opinion and it may be worth exactly what it cost you.

Papermills cannot ramp up production in the short term to meet short-term demand. Some of them might have an extra production line or two sitting idle that they could start up but usually they operate at capacity 24/7/365. That is the most efficient way to operate since the companies are getting 100% use of their investment. Since they already operate at capacity, the only way to create more product is to build more paper mills (a massive investment of time and capital). That’s not going to happen for increased demand in the short term.

Reason would dictate that, after the initial over-demand takes place, and since paper products are generally non-perishable, supply levels will gradually return to regular levels and even, for a time, demand will dip below normal levels as consumers start to feel safe and confident enough to use from their “hoarded” stock.

 

[garddog]

This goes back to over planting 30 years ago. As long as the supply of "good" wood is over abundant, prices for pulp and even log pine will remain down. East central MS used to have thriving agriculture that was more diversified, but in the 80's we saw cotton, beans, corn and about half of the hayfields planted over in pine.

 

[xxxWalkTheDawg]

This goes back to over planting 30 years ago. As long as the supply of "good" wood is over abundant, prices for pulp and even log pine will remain down. East central MS used to have thriving agriculture that was more diversified, but in the 80's we saw cotton, beans, corn and about half of the hayfields planted over in pine.

that and the 94 ice storm. After that is when we cut and set out again

 

[forestdepth]

Marcel Ledbetter will come haul it for you

 

[Ellisville Dawg]

Interesting article on the overabundance of timber in the south

https://www.wsj.com/articles/thousa...trees-for-retirement-it-didnt-work-1539095250