For our, um, speculators here . . .

[NURoseBowl]

What are your thoughts on the 8 1/2 point line in Vegas?

 

[VFL-82-JP]

I don't know much about how bookmaking works. I know enough to realize it's not about who they think will win, and by how much. Instead, it's about who they (the bookies) think bettors,will think will win, and by how much. So the bettors are betting the game, but the bookies are playing the meta-game.

So Tennessee by 8, or whatever the current line is, says that they think about half their expected betting pool will see the game playing out below that number, and half above. Which is significantly different than saying the game has a 50/50 chance of ending below or above the line.

Because UT is a locally/regionally beloved state school, and has millions of fans who never even attended (like myself), while NU is an elite private school with a fairly narrowly-defined fan base, one has to assume that a whole lot more Vols fans will put money down than Cat fans (simply because there are a whole lot more of them). Therefore...the bookmakers' numbers are probably skewed to attract a dominantly Tennessee fan base.

In short, I think if you kidnapped a bookie, tied him to a chair and put a bright light on him, he'd probably admit that he thinks the game will be closer than that. It might take harsh interrogation techniques, though, these guys guard their trade secrets closely.

 

[SmellyCat]

I can't remember - maybe the Mississippi State game ended this streak - but is it still true that NU was the underdog in every single one of their bowl games, or am I remembering that wrong? I mean, even the Motor City Bowl?

 

[PowellVolz]

Betting lines are set to get equal plays on both sides. It really isn't a great indicator of one team vs another.

 

[ricko6543211]

What are your thoughts on the 8 1/2 point line in Vegas?

I think a fair line would be about 5-6 pts. This one isn't as egregious as the Wisconsin (+10 in what was destined to be a low scoring game) or Duke (+5 when I thought we were a better team), and to a lesser extent Stanford (+10 on the road when all the talk from the team was giving me a feeling we were well better than last year) lines. But I like us getting 8.5.

Side note, I think Iowa is the most undervalued of the B1G teams in bowl season at +6.5 against Stanford. The MSU Bama and Wiscy USC games are interesting too. OSU ND blah on both teams but should be exciting. And Mich Fla just sounds like an ugly game to watch. But Outside of TCU Oregon, Baylor UNC, and the other playoff game- the B1G seems to be involved in the best matchups of bowl season.

 

[Williesfan]

Vol fans I have some gambling advice for you. If you are going to gamble take NU and the points. It will soften the blow and fiscally you won't be disappointed.

 

[NURoseBowl]

I can't remember - maybe the Mississippi State game ended this streak - but is it still true that NU was the underdog in every single one of their bowl games, or am I remembering that wrong? I mean, even the Motor City Bowl?

Couldn't swear to it, Smellster, but I think you're right.

 

[SmellyCat]

What I seem to also remember is that the first three bowl games of the modern era (1995, 1996, and 2000 seasons), all three NU opponents were ranked #1 in the preseason, I think by SI. Just one of those weird things.

 

[xxxbobxxx]

I think a fair line would be about 5-6 pts. This one isn't as egregious as the Wisconsin (+10 in what was destined to be a low scoring game) or Duke (+5 when I thought we were a better team), and to a lesser extent Stanford (+10 on the road when all the talk from the team was giving me a feeling we were well better than last year) lines. But I like us getting 8.5.

Side note, I think Iowa is the most undervalued of the B1G teams in bowl season at +6.5 against Stanford. The MSU Bama and Wiscy USC games are interesting too. OSU ND blah on both teams but should be exciting. And Mich Fla just sounds like an ugly game to watch. But Outside of TCU Oregon, Baylor UNC, and the other playoff game- the B1G seems to be involved in the best matchups of bowl season.

My line is down to 8, off my Vegas feed. None of my guys think that far ahead - handful will play NFL on Tuesdays, never understood why... And I have been very right about the off lines this season. On the board, each time I said trap game (betting wise) cuz the line seemed too good - turns out the line was simply too good. I have that same feeling again with IA. I would bet the house, dog and boat (no one wants the wife ) on IA straight up. At +220 - I like IA to win. But what do I know - probably a trap line...I'll stay on my side of the counter.

I don't like this the NU/TN game at all. Who are these teams? Gift win from WI, beat up Stanford, turn IL from blowout to close match. NU has not shown me anything other than unpredictability. TN? Late surge, blown leads, take downs by top teams, haven't really taken down any top teams. Seems like when the win, they win big. When they lose, it is close. If TN wins, I bet they cover. That is a prop bet I would make if offered.

So, I guess if I was thinking about betting this game - I would bet NU on the money line and hope the Cats win a taffy pull. But I wouldn't bet the house, the dog or the boat - maybe the wife. She is a pretty good cook. (And if you ever meet us, you best not share my little jokes!)

 

[BigNUFan51]

My line is down to 8, off my Vegas feed. None of my guys think that far ahead - handful will play NFL on Tuesdays, never understood why... And I have been very right about the off lines this season. On the board, each time I said trap game (betting wise) cuz the line seemed too good - turns out the line was simply too good. I have that same feeling again with IA. I would bet the house, dog and boat (no one wants the wife ) on IA straight up. At +220 - I like IA to win. But what do I know - probably a trap line...I'll stay on my side of the counter.

I don't like this the NU/TN game at all. Who are these teams? Gift win from WI, beat up Stanford, turn IL from blowout to close match. NU has not shown me anything other than unpredictability. TN? Late surge, blown leads, take downs by top teams, haven't really taken down any top teams. Seems like when the win, they win big. When they lose, it is close. If TN wins, I bet they cover. That is a prop bet I would make if offered.

So, I guess if I was thinking about betting this game - I would bet NU on the money line and hope the Cats win a taffy pull. But I wouldn't bet the house, the dog or the boat - maybe the wife. She is a pretty good cook. (And if you ever meet us, you best not share my little jokes!)

It all comes down to whether or not we can contain their run game. NU has one of the best run defenses in the country but we aren't invinceable as proven by Iowa.

Hurd, Kamara, and Dobbs aren't going to be shutdown but if collectively we can hold them under 150 yds it would be a huge win.

 

[xxxbobxxx]

With the NVH injury, I thought I would jump back over here for a minute. My line has held at 8 and I agree with the discussion on that thread that it won't move much - until the game gets closer. The pros like to get in earlier or after dramatic changes - but at this stage - who knows who will play, or get hurt falling out of a window...

But the O/U is interesting to me. First, it's 45.5 - which seems high. Both teams have better D than O. Also, Tampa, like everywhere east, has been unseasonably warm - which should continue. In theory, this would gas the D first. But I would expect the big uglies along the OLs to wear down quick and hurt the running game and protection schemes. Also, both teams rotate heavy on D. Those that spend much winter time in SW Florida also know that the season brings regular rains - this is an outdoor stadium - and rain usually brings down the score too. So, I think this game screams for the under - and if it goes over - I don't think NU wins.

In terms of betting early, I would expect this line to only go down. Since injuries will more often reduce or not affect the scoring outcome, this might be a good game to get in early.

 

[PowellVolz]

With the NVH injury, I thought I would jump back over here for a minute. My line has held at 8 and I agree with the discussion on that thread that it won't move much - until the game gets closer. The pros like to get in earlier or after dramatic changes - but at this stage - who knows who will play, or get hurt falling out of a window...

But the O/U is interesting to me. First, it's 45.5 - which seems high. Both teams have better D than O. Also, Tampa, like everywhere east, has been unseasonably warm - which should continue. In theory, this would gas the D first. But I would expect the big uglies along the OLs to wear down quick and hurt the running game and protection schemes. Also, both teams rotate heavy on D. Those that spend much winter time in SW Florida also know that the season brings regular rains - this is an outdoor stadium - and rain usually brings down the score too. So, I think this game screams for the under - and if it goes over - I don't think NU wins.

In terms of betting early, I would expect this line to only go down. Since injuries will more often reduce or not affect the scoring outcome, this might be a good game to get in early.

Tennessee's D is 100% not better than its offense. Not even close.

 

[clad_in_big_orange]

It all comes down to whether or not we can contain their run game. NU has one of the best run defenses in the country but we aren't invinceable as proven by Iowa.

Hurd, Kamara, and Dobbs aren't going to be shutdown but if collectively we can hold them under 150 yds it would be a huge win.

That's a tall task. I think the only team to have done that this year was Alabama...and we rushed for more than they did in that game so that tells you the kind of defense that was being played all around.

And if you're talking about just pure rushing yards no one has done it. Dobb's sack yards are the only thing that have brought the three back under that level.

 

[hdhntr1]

I don't know much about how bookmaking works. I know enough to realize it's not about who they think will win, and by how much. Instead, it's about who they (the bookies) think bettors,will think will win, and by how much. So the bettors are betting the game, but the bookies are playing the meta-game.

So Tennessee by 8, or whatever the current line is, says that they think about half their expected betting pool will see the game playing out below that number, and half above. Which is significantly different than saying the game has a 50/50 chance of ending below or above the line.

Because UT is a locally/regionally beloved state school, and has millions of fans who never even attended (like myself), while NU is an elite private school with a fairly narrowly-defined fan base, one has to assume that a whole lot more Vols fans will put money down than Cat fans (simply because there are a whole lot more of them). Therefore...the bookmakers' numbers are probably skewed to attract a dominantly Tennessee fan base.

In short, I think if you kidnapped a bookie, tied him to a chair and put a bright light on him, he'd probably admit that he thinks the game will be closer than that. It might take harsh interrogation techniques, though, these guys guard their trade secrets closely.

Not skewed to attract the TN base but to offset them and basically attract NU bets. Their goal is to have equal bets on both sides and just collect the vig.

 

[clad_in_big_orange]

Not skewed to attract the TN base but to offset them and basically attract NU bets. Their goal is to have equal bets on both sides and just collect the vig.

Unless it's one of those rare cases where they feel very strongly about a certain outcome. Our game vs. Georgia this year they had UGA -2 with over 70 percent of the betting on UGA and never moved an inch.

 

[parkdogg_rivals177327]

Vol fans I have some gambling advice for you. If you are going to gamble take NU and the points. It will soften the blow and fiscally you won't be disappointed.

Point taken, Yes, I will bet on Nebraska. Thank You Willies!