"First Four" Tourney Game

[RU2323]

While I think the pressure is off and we're 99% in the tourney (barring a bunch of bid stealers), we need the Indiana game to be certain we don't get saddled with the opening "first four," game on Tuesday/Wednesday night of the tourney. I hate that game, and after 30x years, I don't want to see that happen to RU.

Need one more as a lot of bracketologists have us as a 10-seed right now.

 

[kcg88]

Even with a loss to Indiana we're not going to fall to the 11/12 line.

 

[hinson32]

While I think the pressure is off and we're 99% in the tourney (barring a bunch of bid stealers), we need the Indiana game to be certain we don't get saddled with the opening "first four," game on Tuesday/Wednesday night of the tourney. I hate that game, and after 30x years, I don't want to see that happen to RU.

Need one more as a lot of bracketologists have us as a 10-seed right now.

No we don’t. We are 100% not playing in those games.

 

[bac2therac]

pretty unlikely but I would not totally rule it out.

Its likely that the NCAA will want to pair smaller conference schools with majors or two majors and 2 smaller.

Right now those power schools at most risk are Louisville, Maryland, UCLA and North Carolina.

 

[koko2315]

the bubble is not that strong, IMO. No chance to drop 3-4 seeds in one game

 

[fluoxetine]

Anything can happen obviously but barring any strange occurrences I think we are still a 9 seed with a loss there. That's a lot of buffer before the play-in games.

(I also think the play-in games are terrible.)

 

[bac2therac]

the bubble is not that strong, IMO. No chance to drop 3-4 seeds in one game

the issue isnt dropping seeds, it would be a scenario where Louisville, UNC and UCLA performed well enough in the conference tourneys to move by RU. RU is a 9/10 right now, cushion from worrying about not making the tourney, we are a lock, however the committee can shuffle things to get a power 6 school on the last 4 in line for matchup purposes.

I would say 90% we are not going to the first four

 

[shields]

20 games should be the test. Playing another tourney game unless you are St.John's who needs to win a couple of games.

 

[kcg88]

the issue isnt dropping seeds, it would be a scenario where Louisville, UNC and UCLA performed well enough in the conference tourneys to move by RU. RU is a 9/10 right now, cushion from worrying about not making the tourney, we are a lock, however the committee can shuffle things to get a power 6 school on the last 4 in line for matchup purposes.

I would say 90% we are not going to the first four

Ville, UNC, and UCLA are 10 seeds on Bracket Matrix. Even if they pass us we'll only fall to 10. To fall to the first four we'd need to lose AND those three would need to do great AND more teams like Boise State, Georgia Tech, Colorado State, etc need to do well.

 

[fluoxetine]

the issue isnt dropping seeds, it would be a scenario where Louisville, UNC and UCLA performed well enough in the conference tourneys to move by RU. RU is a 9/10 right now, cushion from worrying about not making the tourney, we are a lock, however the committee can shuffle things to get a power 6 school on the last 4 in line for matchup purposes.

I would say 90% we are not going to the first four

This would be absolutely criminal if they are doing this. Moving seeds around in the main bracket is one thing, but making someone play AN EXTRA GAME for "matchup purposes"? There is no way they are supposed to be doing that. Those are supposed to be the last four teams in.

 

[kcg88]

One of VCU/Bona will definitely be behind us. At least one ACC team will be behind us (UNC, Louisville, Syracuse and Georgia Tech can't all make deep ACC-T runs). Assuming the Big East gets a 4th team, they'll be behind us (Xavier, Seton Hall, St. John's). Drake is going to be behind us. A Mountain West team will be behind us (Boise State, Colorado State, or Utah State). Whoever loses the Maryland-Michigan State game is going to be behind us.

We're extremely well insulated from "last 4 in" status.

 

[bac2therac]

There are plenty of brackets that have UNC and UCLA ahead of RU at the moment. RU is a 9/10 with a bunch of Aqs like St Bonnie and Wichita on the 10/11 lines, its not quite as large of a drop as you want to make it out to be.

I am just saying in worst case scenario

ie Maryland beat Mich State
UCLA makes finals of Pac 12
UNC-UL in ACC semis which isnt that far fetched.

while currently its 5 smaller schools in that last grouping...VCU, Boise State, Col State, Xavier, Drake, the committee may want to slide a major school or two down to that area..again its very unlikely its RU but I would not say its impossible

 

[bac2therac]

This would be absolutely criminal if they are doing this. Moving seeds around in the main bracket is one thing, but making someone play AN EXTRA GAME for "matchup purposes"? There is no way they are supposed to be doing that. Those are supposed to be the last four teams in.

you think if they have a shot at UCLA playing Syracuse or VCU playing Syracuse they wouldnt flip them if close

 

[bac2therac]

One of VCU/Bona will definitely be behind us. At least one ACC team will be behind us (UNC, Louisville, Syracuse and Georgia Tech can't all make deep ACC-T runs). Assuming the Big East gets a 4th team, they'll be behind us (Xavier, Seton Hall, St. John's). Drake is going to be behind us. A Mountain West team will be behind us (Boise State, Colorado State, or Utah State). Whoever loses the Maryland-Michigan State game is going to be behind us.

We're extremely well insulated from "last 4 in" status.

Michigan State will not be behind us if they lose to Maryland and we lose to Indiana

those ACC schools are arguably pretty close with RU in most brackets, RU might be a half notch higher

I agree that 3 of the spots are basically accounted for...I think there is that 4th spot in that will be a power conference school.

 

[fluoxetine]

you think if they have a shot at UCLA playing Syracuse or VCU playing Syracuse they wouldnt flip them if close

I don't know what they would do exactly but if you are going to have play-in games for the last four teams in, they need to be the last four teams in. It's not at all the same thing as making a 9-seed into a 10-seed for geographic purposes or to avoid conference matchups or whatever; putting someone in the play-in game halves their chances of making any subsequent round.

 

[bac2therac]

why would it be Michigan State...the profile actually is better than us given they have better wins. A loss to Indiana is worse than a lost to Maryland...at the moment MSU is ahead of RU in seeding....guys like Lunardi keep playing catch up

 

[bac2therac]

I don't know what they would do exactly but if you are going to have play-in games for the last four teams in, they need to be the last four teams in. It's not at all the same thing as making a 9-seed into a 10-seed for geographic purposes or to avoid conference matchups or whatever; putting someone in the play-in game halves their chances of making any subsequent round.

well picking them is pretty arbitrary when you comparing A10 and Pac 12 schools and neither have them have done much in Q1 and their Q2 results are mainly drek inflated conference foes

 

[fluoxetine]

well picking them is pretty arbitrary when you comparing A10 and Pac 12 schools and neither have them have done much in Q1 and their Q2 results are mainly drek inflated conference foes

I mean sure, but there is a lot of separation between us and like Syracuse and Boise State which are current play-in game teams.

 

[kcg88]

why would it be Michigan State...the profile actually is better than us given they have better wins. A loss to Indiana is worse than a lost to Maryland...at the moment MSU is ahead of RU in seeding....guys like Lunardi keep playing catch up

MSU still has a horrible NET ranking but yeah I deleted that post. It'd be close between us and Michigan State, but I don't think either would sink there. Maryland might with a loss but otherwise it's going to be:

(Pick 4)
Drake
A10 runner-up
ACC team
Big East team
Mountain West team
Wildcard late riser (Ole Miss, Memphis)

 

[bac2therac]

again I really do not think its likely 90%, I would just want to beat Indiana as we dont start getting on that 11 line close to the 12.