"Excursion" into Iran

ClemsonCO14

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Says who? We were told their nuclear program was obliterated just a short while ago. If that wasn't a lie, and their nuke program was so rehabilitated and advanced in such a short time, and we're so convinced its existence/completion is such an imminent dire threat .... then we're either going to repeat this in perpetuity, and bankrupt ourselves in the process ... or we just need to stop sucking at this and take over the entire nation.

Or ... maybe ... just maybe ... someone is slinging ish that no reasonable person could/would believe.
Republicans - not just Trump - have done a terrible job at controlling the message on Iran, from the nuclear angle to regime change to the definition of war to ultimate objectives.
 

baltimorened

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Republicans - not just Trump - have done a terrible job at controlling the message on Iran, from the nuclear angle to regime change to the definition of war to ultimate objectives.
hard to disagree. Most of our politicians - all levels, both parties - live in bubbles and believe that what they talk about among themselves somehow morphs to the rest of society. In fairness though, in military conflicts telling the public too much, might not be positive for the "excursion" effort...the old loose lips thing. Same lack of clarity argument could be made for Dems shutdown right now. They harp on ICE, but rest of us, especially those that fly frequently only see TSA backups...

Now, you'll get Dems who argue the opposite - that their message is clear, and republicans will say same about their positions..seems like that's the way things go today
 
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PAWrocka

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hard to disagree. Most of our politicians - all levels, both parties - live in bubbles and believe that what they talk about among themselves somehow morphs to the rest of society. In fairness though, in military conflicts telling the public too much, might not be positive for the "excursion" effort...the old loose lips thing. Same lack of clarity argument could be made for Dems shutdown right now. They harp on ICE, but rest of us, especially those that fly frequently only see TSA backups...

Now, you'll get Dems who argue the opposite - that their message is clear, and republicans will say same about their positions..seems like that's the way things go today
Spent 24 years of my career in commercial aviation. 10 years specifically in Airport Systems.

the TSA is arguably one of the biggest wastes of money our government has ever spent. They aren’t needed and were never needed. TSA was an overreaction to 9/11, and now is entrenched.
 

baltimorened

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Spent 24 years of my career in commercial aviation. 10 years specifically in Airport Systems.

the TSA is arguably one of the biggest wastes of money our government has ever spent. They aren’t needed and were never needed. TSA was an overreaction to 9/11, and now is entrenched.
Isn't that the definition of a government program? Like dracula, it never dies, but every year needs a higher budget.
 

LafayetteBear

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I'm not sure I totally agree with your analysis. Trump might enter an "excursion" without planning, but I guarantee you, the US military has plans out the Gazoo, and if you don't think so, do a little digging on Iran's military capabilities. They are no Venezuela,, rather they have a significant military with modern equipment and well trained people. And, the US military effectively destroyed it in just about 3 days..astounding.

It is a totally sound decision to get other countries involved. They need the oil more than we do, it's their ships that have to transit the strait, and the more Iran sees worldwide involvement, the more likely it caves quickly. In fact, the neighboring Gulf states have been involved since day 1 when Iran started lobbying missiles at them. Not it's not a matter of involvement, but the degree of involvement

After about a week, this excursion has shifted more from a military one to a political one. Iran is done militarily. The US is, in effect, in total control. The US Air Force and Navy can fly around and bomb just about anything it wants. So, the conclusion now comes down to how much pain can the political leaders sustain.
The U.S. is "in total control" of the Strait of Hormuz? Who knew?! Apparently not Donald Trump. Here's what he said two days ago:

On Saturday morning, Trump published a self-defeating message to his social media platform in which he said Iran’s military capabilities have been “destroyed 100%,” except for its drones, mines, missiles, boats and ships. (This was not intended to be amusing.) He added, “Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others, that are affected by this artificial constraint, will send Ships to the area so that the Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat by a Nation that has been totally decapitated.”
 

LafayetteBear

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I’m going to soft disagree that it was “totally unnecessary” and “no real planning” buuuuuuuut I’ll agree that he/they estimated Iran’s ability to impact the Straight and shipping insurance company’s war time insurance response.

unfortunately we and everybody is stuck. Have to get control of the Straight
1. Did you mean "underestimated?" Otherwise, the sentence does not make English sense.
2. It's "Strait," not "Straight." In your defense, 90% of the folks who post about this subject use the term "Straight."
 

LafayetteBear

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Dude if you think President Trump created this war incision into Iran with NO PLAN YOU ARE SMOKING THE BEST MOUNTAIN GROWN HASHISH FROM AFGHANISTAN

MISSION IS DELINEATED DOWN TO MONITORING FARTS OF IRANIAN LEADERS
"Incision?" "Invasion" or "incursion" would have made English sense, but "incision" is not viable. And if Trump had a plan, he sure has hidden that plan well. LOL, he has phucked this thing up comprehensively.
 

LafayetteBear

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Looking forward to Chinese , Russian and North Korean small boats protecting the Straits

Now that would be funny

No protection NO OIL FOR YOU

THE TRUE OIL NAZI FROM SEINFIELD
Good luck waiting for those countries to protect the Strait. Iran has already made public statements advising that they will allow safe passage to tankers from countries other than "the U.S. and its allies." So why would China, Russia and North Korea take military action against Iran? Rhetorical question, Farley.
 
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baltimorened

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The U.S. is "in total control" of the Strait of Hormuz? Who knew?! Apparently not Donald Trump. Here's what he said two days ago:

On Saturday morning, Trump published a self-defeating message to his social media platform in which he said Iran’s military capabilities have been “destroyed 100%,” except for its drones, mines, missiles, boats and ships. (This was not intended to be amusing.) He added, “Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others, that are affected by this artificial constraint, will send Ships to the area so that the Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat by a Nation that has been totally decapitated.”
yea, Iran is still in control of the strait..We need about two weeks...
 
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baltimorened

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"Incision?" "Invasion" or "incursion" would have made English sense, but "incision" is not viable. And if Trump had a plan, he sure has hidden that plan well. LOL, he has phucked this thing up comprehensively.
nope, in this instance you are mistaken. Trump has said a lot that is incorrect, likely for public consumption, but this is not phucked up. The last 10yards are the most difficult...we'll get there, if Trump doesn't declare victory too soon and pull out...we've gone this far, he has to let the military finish the job. We've accomplished a lot, but IMO need to get the nuclear materials even if some third party goes in takes them and stores them somewhere.
 
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baltimorened

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Good luck waiting for those countries to protect the Strait. Iran has already made public statements advising that they will allow safe passage to tankers from countries other than "the U.S. and its allies." So why would China, Russia and North Korea take military action against Iran? Rhetorical question, Farley.
really, would we want N Korea, China or Russia involved? answer..NO

But, here's a question, if Iran allows every other country's ships passage with their oil, doesn't that, in effect, increase the global oil supply and reduce prices? I don't believe we have any ships in the strait, so not letting them pass is not a big deal. If the price of oil goes back to a reasonable price, Iran has lost the only leverage we have left.

This MEU element going to the Iranian waters is an interesting development. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
 

LafayetteBear

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Spent 24 years of my career in commercial aviation. 10 years specifically in Airport Systems.

the TSA is arguably one of the biggest wastes of money our government has ever spent. They aren’t needed and were never needed. TSA was an overreaction to 9/11, and now is entrenched.
I'm old enough to recall a time when I could carry luggage onto a plane without even going through a metal detector. It's been awhile, to be sure. But things have changed. With all due respect to your experience in civil avaiation (seriously), I would not want to board a commercial jet plane these days if all of the passengers and baggage being brought onto that plane was not inspected (either via appropriate "X-ray" equipment or physical inspection). The TSA does that. The TSA has its failings, but who is gonna do that if the TSA does not? Or, do you think that is a waste of time? There are a lot of kooks out there these days, and I do not want to go down on a plane with one..
 

LafayetteBear

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nope, in this instance you are mistaken. Trump has said a lot that is incorrect, likely for public consumption, but this is not phucked up. The last 10yards are the most difficult...we'll get there, if Trump doesn't declare victory too soon and pull out...we've gone this far, he has to let the military finish the job. We've accomplished a lot, but IMO need to get the nuclear materials even if some third party goes in takes them and stores them somewhere.
Ned: That enriched uranium is, by most reports, buried under a mountain-sized pile of rubble. We know where it is, and can monitor activity around that pile of rubble. and bomb it again if need be. Why risk the loss of American lives by putting boots on the ground to dig out and transport that enriched uranium out of Iran. And to what destination?

Trump can and should cut his losses at this point. He needs to declare victory and GTFO of Iran. We'll have to agree to disagree on the quantum of advance planning that went into this "incision."
 

PawPride

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TSA is a thing because the govt doesn’t want their citizens enjoying delicious happy hour beers at your friendly neighborhood Airport Chili’s B&G
 

baltimorened

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Ned: That enriched uranium is, by most reports, buried under a mountain-sized pile of rubble. We know where it is, and can monitor activity around that pile of rubble. and bomb it again if need be. Why risk the loss of American lives by putting boots on the ground to dig out and transport that enriched uranium out of Iran. And to what destination?

Trump can and should cut his losses at this point. He needs to declare victory and GTFO of Iran. We'll have to agree to disagree on the quantum of advance planning that went into this "incision."
i was under the impression that when the Iranian negotiator told ours that they had enough enriched uranium for 11 bombs that they had access to it. Maybe I misunderstood.

We have to get the uranium - assuming it's available to be gotten...and we have to get the strait open...

I'm not sure what losses trump has to cut....we're winning in an astounding manner
 

LafayetteBear

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i was under the impression that when the Iranian negotiator told ours that they had enough enriched uranium for 11 bombs that they had access to it. Maybe I misunderstood.

We have to get the uranium - assuming it's available to be gotten...and we have to get the strait open...

I'm not sure what losses trump has to cut....we're winning in an astounding manner
Trump's and Hegseth's incessant whining about press coverage of the Iran War suggests anything but "winning in an astounding manner."

 

baltimorened

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Trump's and Hegseth's incessant whining about press coverage of the Iran War suggests anything but "winning in an astounding manner."

MS NOW again ugh.....I may not trust the word of a politician or of a medium which is outright anti administration, I do believe the CENTCOM commander. If he publicly says we have destroyed 90% of Iran's offensive capability it tells me that he believes, that based on intelligence available to him, we have destroyed 90% of Iran's offensive capability. When I see reports that tell me that missiles outgoing from Iran have decreased from hundreds per day to 10s or less per day, that reinforces, to me, what the CENTCOM commander has said.

I might be a little biased to the military side of this 'incision", but anyone who has ever studied or read about Iran's capabilities in the strait knew this was going to take effort and time. Trump said "four to six weeks", it's been 2 and we have seized the air supremacy needed to define direction of the conflict. Don't give up "hope". As I said, we're on the 10 yard line, 1st and goal. The defense still has strength...we have to overcome that strength....

As I said previously, Iran's leverage is oil passing through the strait. if they're letting ships pass then they're giving up that leverage. Why would they do that? I don't know, maybe they have something up their sleeves..they're not a dumb people...

I don't put much stock in what people with no military knowledge, experience, or education say. For the most part they speak in goosip or just express their bias built around military buzzwords. It takes a lot of education to become a lawyer. It takes just as much to become a senior combat officer...war colleges, command and staff colleges....war is a profession, just like lawyering.

It's entirely likely that this "incision" has been wargamed over and over again. They know what they're doing. Relax.. from this point the end game will be political. Does trump have the moral courage to see this to the end of will he - I think the expression is - TACO?

Once again, this is just my opinion, I have absolutely no knowledge if Hegseth is indeed the dumbest person in the cabinet
 
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PawPride

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MS NOW again ugh.....I may not trust the word of a politician or of a medium which is outright anti administration, I do believe the CENTCOM commander. If he publicly says we have destroyed 90% of Iran's offensive capability it tells me that he believes, that based on intelligence available to him, we have destroyed 90% of Iran's offensive capability. When I see reports that tell me that missiles outgoing from Iran have decreased from hundreds per day to 10s or less per day, that reinforces, to me, what the CENTCOM commander has said.

I might be a little biased to the military side of this 'incision", but anyone who has ever studied or read about Iran's capabilities in the strait knew this was going to take effort and time. Trump said "four to six weeks", it's been 2 and we have seized the air supremacy needed to define direction of the conflict. Don't give up "hope". As I said, we're on the 10 yard line, 1st and goal. The defense still has strength...we have to overcome that strength....

As I said previously, Iran's leverage is oil passing through the strait. if they're letting ships pass then they're giving up that leverage. Why would they do that? I don't know, maybe they have something up their sleeves..they're not a dumb people...

I don't put much stock in what people with no military knowledge, experience, or education say. For the most part they speak in goosip or just express their bias built around military buzzwords. It takes a lot of education to become a lawyer. It takes just as much to become a senior combat officer...war colleges, command and staff colleges....war is a profession, just like lawyering.

It's entirely likely that this "incision" has been wargamed over and over again. They know what they're doing. Relax.. from this point the end game will be political. Does trump have the moral courage to see this to the end of will he - I think the expression is - TACO?

Once again, this is just my opinion, I have absolutely no knowledge if Hegseth is indeed the dumbest person in the cabinet
I’m guessing none of these military commanders thought Iran would hit any of their neighboring countries - or if they did they told Trump they wouldn’t?

 

fatpiggy

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Spent 24 years of my career in commercial aviation. 10 years specifically in Airport Systems.

the TSA is arguably one of the biggest wastes of money our government has ever spent. They aren’t needed and were never needed. TSA was an overreaction to 9/11, and now is entrenched.

Why? 40000 people died and you think TSA is worthless? I’m not a huge fan, but I wouldn’t be getting on flights that didn’t have people searched.

And before you say “they don’t find anything dangerous”, yes, yes they do. And perhaps many are deterred just through their presence.

Seems like a silly take to me .
 
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Moogy

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MS NOW again ugh.....I may not trust the word of a politician or of a medium which is outright anti administration, I do believe the CENTCOM commander. If he publicly says we have destroyed 90% of Iran's offensive capability it tells me that he believes, that based on intelligence available to him, we have destroyed 90% of Iran's offensive capability. When I see reports that tell me that missiles outgoing from Iran have decreased from hundreds per day to 10s or less per day, that reinforces, to me, what the CENTCOM commander has said.

I might be a little biased to the military side of this 'incision", but anyone who has ever studied or read about Iran's capabilities in the strait knew this was going to take effort and time. Trump said "four to six weeks", it's been 2 and we have seized the air supremacy needed to define direction of the conflict. Don't give up "hope". As I said, we're on the 10 yard line, 1st and goal. The defense still has strength...we have to overcome that strength....

As I said previously, Iran's leverage is oil passing through the strait. if they're letting ships pass then they're giving up that leverage. Why would they do that? I don't know, maybe they have something up their sleeves..they're not a dumb people...

I don't put much stock in what people with no military knowledge, experience, or education say. For the most part they speak in goosip or just express their bias built around military buzzwords. It takes a lot of education to become a lawyer. It takes just as much to become a senior combat officer...war colleges, command and staff colleges....war is a profession, just like lawyering.

It's entirely likely that this "incision" has been wargamed over and over again. They know what they're doing. Relax.. from this point the end game will be political. Does trump have the moral courage to see this to the end of will he - I think the expression is - TACO?

Once again, this is just my opinion, I have absolutely no knowledge if Hegseth is indeed the dumbest person in the cabinet

This is an awful, awful post. Horrible messaging that is antithetical to what it means to be an American citizen. Just awful. Its thesis is "shut up and don't question your military overlords." America was built on distrust of the military. It's embedded in the Constitution. It's the reason for the 2nd Amendment conservatives claim to hold dear. If it has gotten to the point where the media, and the average American citizen is being told that what's going on is above their paygrade, and they need to just shut up and act as the military tells them to act, and believe what the military tells them to believe, America is no more. We would now be a fascist state.

Regardless, it also doesn't speak to the article it references. So, there's that.
 

firegiver

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We've killed the more passive leader in IRan and replaced him with someone who wants a nuclear weapon. Mission Accomplished?

I'm so tired of being correct about wars in the middle east, so tired.
 

fatpiggy

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Aug 18, 2002
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We've killed the more passive leader in IRan and replaced him with someone who wants a nuclear weapon. Mission Accomplished?

I'm so tired of being correct about wars in the middle east, so tired.
He won’t be around long. Don’t worry
 

PAWrocka

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Why? 40000 people died and you think TSA is worthless? I’m not a huge fan, but I wouldn’t be getting on flights that didn’t have people searched.

And before you say “they don’t find anything dangerous”, yes, yes they do. And perhaps many are deterred just through their presence.

Seems like a silly take to me .
At no point did I say that passengers shouldnt be screened. Passengers were searched before TSA. The difference was that it was done by airport employees/contractors instead of an over blown Government agency.

the issues on 9/11 weren’t that airport security missed something, it was due to
1) Govt agencies not sharing information with each other
2) lack of “imagination”. At the time we believed that terrorists would hijack a plane for hostages and demand ransom
3) the guidelines allowed the “weapons” used through security.

TSA was created, airport security was nationalized and the cost skyrocketed and you’re no safer now than you were before 9/11. I’d argue you’re less safe … but that is a topic for a different thread.