"Excursion" into Iran

[other1]

trump created this totally unnecessary war in Iran with no real planning and now he's hoping that other countries will come to the rescue because the excursion isn't turning out to be as easy as he thought it would be.

Iran has not asked for ceasefire and sees no reason for talks with US, Iranian minister says - follow live

Donald Trump had said Tehran wanted a deal but he felt the terms were "not good enough". Meanwhile, Iran continues to strike US allies in the Gulf as Israel targets western Iran.

www.bbc.com

 

[baltimorened]

trump created this totally unnecessary war in Iran with no real planning and now he's hoping that other countries will come to the rescue because the excursion isn't turning out to be as easy as he thought it would be.

Iran has not asked for ceasefire and sees no reason for talks with US, Iranian minister says - follow live

Donald Trump had said Tehran wanted a deal but he felt the terms were "not good enough". Meanwhile, Iran continues to strike US allies in the Gulf as Israel targets western Iran.

www.bbc.com

I'm not sure I totally agree with your analysis. Trump might enter an "excursion" without planning, but I guarantee you, the US military has plans out the Gazoo, and if you don't think so, do a little digging on Iran's military capabilities. They are no Venezuela,, rather they have a significant military with modern equipment and well trained people. And, the US military effectively destroyed it in just about 3 days..astounding.

It is a totally sound decision to get other countries involved. They need the oil more than we do, it's their ships that have to transit the strait, and the more Iran sees worldwide involvement, the more likely it caves quickly. In fact, the neighboring Gulf states have been involved since day 1 when Iran started lobbying missiles at them. Not it's not a matter of involvement, but the degree of involvement

After about a week, this excursion has shifted more from a military one to a political one. Iran is done militarily. The US is, in effect, in total control. The US Air Force and Navy can fly around and bomb just about anything it wants. So, the conclusion now comes down to how much pain can the political leaders sustain.

 

[PAWrocka]

trump created this totally unnecessary war in Iran with no real planning and now he's hoping that other countries will come to the rescue because the excursion isn't turning out to be as easy as he thought it would be.

Iran has not asked for ceasefire and sees no reason for talks with US, Iranian minister says - follow live

Donald Trump had said Tehran wanted a deal but he felt the terms were "not good enough". Meanwhile, Iran continues to strike US allies in the Gulf as Israel targets western Iran.

www.bbc.com

I’m going to soft disagree that it was “totally unnecessary” and “no real planning” buuuuuuuut I’ll agree that he/they estimated Iran’s ability to impact the Straight and shipping insurance company’s war time insurance response.

unfortunately we and everybody is stuck. Have to get control of the Straight

 

[baltimorened]

I’m going to soft disagree that it was “totally unnecessary” and “no real planning” buuuuuuuut I’ll agree that he/they estimated Iran’s ability to impact the Straight and shipping insurance company’s war time insurance response.

unfortunately we and everybody is stuck. Have to get control of the Straight

I'll softly agree with your statement on the strait. I say "softly" because I have no access to the sequential planning sequence for this excursion. I know that they had to take out the air defenses and gain air superiority/supremacy first. I'd find it difficult to believe they didn't have a plan for gaming control of the strait - anybody that ever worked in military planning knows that they have at least one plan for every contingency - but they might have underestimated the Iranian capabilities and the forces needed to take control of it.

So, like everything else in life, you adjust to the situation. They'll get control one way or the other, it might just take longer than they thought. But, I might be 100% wrong. We may be exactly where the planners thought we'd be at this point. Somebody will write a book when all of this is unclassified, then we'll know.

 

[fatpiggy]

I'm not sure I totally agree with your analysis. Trump might enter an "excursion" without planning, but I guarantee you, the US military has plans out the Gazoo, and if you don't think so, do a little digging on Iran's military capabilities. They are no Venezuela,, rather they have a significant military with modern equipment and well trained people. And, the US military effectively destroyed it in just about 3 days..astounding.

It is a totally sound decision to get other countries involved. They need the oil more than we do, it's their ships that have to transit the strait, and the more Iran sees worldwide involvement, the more likely it caves quickly. In fact, the neighboring Gulf states have been involved since day 1 when Iran started lobbying missiles at them. Not it's not a matter of involvement, but the degree of involvement

After about a week, this excursion has shifted more from a military one to a political one. Iran is done militarily. The US is, in effect, in total control. The US Air Force and Navy can fly around and bomb just about anything it wants. So, the conclusion now comes down to how much pain can the political leaders sustain.

Until the price of oil gets back down below $80 a barrel the United Staes is losing. Anything above ~$77 and inflation will creep back up and Trump will lose his base and therefore support for the war.

 

[other1]

And thus far who is making out the "best" out of this whole situation?? Putin, because we just lifted sanctions as far as his oil goes so he's cleaning up because of trump's "excursion".

 

[PalmettoTiger1]

trump created this totally unnecessary war in Iran with no real planning and now he's hoping that other countries will come to the rescue because the excursion isn't turning out to be as easy as he thought it would be.

Iran has not asked for ceasefire and sees no reason for talks with US, Iranian minister says - follow live

Donald Trump had said Tehran wanted a deal but he felt the terms were "not good enough". Meanwhile, Iran continues to strike US allies in the Gulf as Israel targets western Iran.

www.bbc.com

Dude if you think President Trump created this war incision into Iran with NO PLAN YOU ARE SMOKING THE BEST MOUNTAIN GROWN HASHISH FROM AFGHANISTAN

MISSION IS DELINEATED DOWN TO MONITORING FARTS OF IRANIAN LEADERS

 

[PalmettoTiger1]

I'm not sure I totally agree with your analysis. Trump might enter an "excursion" without planning, but I guarantee you, the US military has plans out the Gazoo, and if you don't think so, do a little digging on Iran's military capabilities. They are no Venezuela,, rather they have a significant military with modern equipment and well trained people. And, the US military effectively destroyed it in just about 3 days..astounding.

It is a totally sound decision to get other countries involved. They need the oil more than we do, it's their ships that have to transit the strait, and the more Iran sees worldwide involvement, the more likely it caves quickly. In fact, the neighboring Gulf states have been involved since day 1 when Iran started lobbying missiles at them. Not it's not a matter of involvement, but the degree of involvement

After about a week, this excursion has shifted more from a military one to a political one. Iran is done militarily. The US is, in effect, in total control. The US Air Force and Navy can fly around and bomb just about anything it wants. So, the conclusion now comes down to how much pain can the political leaders sustain.

Looking forward to Chinese , Russian and North Korean small boats protecting the Straits

Now that would be funny

No protection NO OIL FOR YOU

THE TRUE OIL NAZI FROM SEINFIELD

 

[baltimorened]

And thus far who is making out the "best" out of this whole situation?? Putin, because we just lifted sanctions as far as his oil goes so he's cleaning up because of trump's "excursion".

I would imagine that so are our oil companies..we produce a lot here to you know

 

[other1]

Dude if you think President Trump created this war incision into Iran with NO PLAN YOU ARE SMOKING THE BEST MOUNTAIN GROWN HASHISH FROM AFGHANISTAN

MISSION IS DELINEATED DOWN TO MONITORING FARTS OF IRANIAN LEADERS

It was totally unnecessary. Why is it on us to bail Israel out?? They got no problem bombing the sh+t out of the Palestinians or Lebanon so why can't they do the same with Iran?? It''s trump being a tough guy with a country that poses no immediate threat to the U.S.

 

[baltimorened]

It was totally unnecessary. Why is it on us to bail Israel out?? They got no problem bombing the sh+t out of the Palestinians or Lebanon so why can't they do the same with Iran?? It''s trump being a tough guy with a country that poses no immediate threat to the U.S.

strait of Hormuz open...to every carrier except US and Israel....according to Iran Foreign Minister ....some have already passed through.

Not sure what that means....

 

[PAWrocka]

I'll softly agree with your statement on the strait. I say "softly" because I have no access to the sequential planning sequence for this excursion. I know that they had to take out the air defenses and gain air superiority/supremacy first. I'd find it difficult to believe they didn't have a plan for gaming control of the strait - anybody that ever worked in military planning knows that they have at least one plan for every contingency - but they might have underestimated the Iranian capabilities and the forces needed to take control of it.

So, like everything else in life, you adjust to the situation. They'll get control one way or the other, it might just take longer than they thought. But, I might be 100% wrong. We may be exactly where the planners thought we'd be at this point. Somebody will write a book when all of this is unclassified, then we'll know.

I don’t think they had “no” plan, I just think the under estimated Iran capabilities as it pertains to the straight. No chance Iran can keep it up buuuuuuuuuuuuut they are going to make life difficult for a bit.

I also think we under estimated Iran’s decision to lob missiles at their neighbor countries.

Also the Iranian propaganda machine is impressive … just by how quickly and wide spread they infect ALL social media platforms with misinformation.

 

[fatpiggy]

It was totally unnecessary. Why is it on us to bail Israel out?? They got no problem bombing the sh+t out of the Palestinians or Lebanon so why can't they do the same with Iran?? It''s trump being a tough guy with a country that poses no immediate threat to the U.S.

They continually said they would wipe us off the map and were developing capabilities to do just that.


Look, I don’t like the war. But to say there was no threat seems incorrect to me. They were a well armed country that calls for our annihilation.

 

[fatpiggy]

strait of Hormuz open...to every carrier except US and Israel....according to Iran Foreign Minister ....some have already passed through.

Not sure what that means....

It mean that if Trump is going to take that whole island if they keep trying to stop the flow of oil. Maybe they got the message.

 

[fatpiggy]

I don’t think they had “no” plan, I just think the under estimated Iran capabilities as it pertains to the straight. No chance Iran can keep it up buuuuuuuuuuuuut they are going to make life difficult for a bit.

I also think we under estimated Iran’s decision to lob missiles at their neighbor countries.

Also the Iranian propaganda machine is impressive … just by how quickly and wide spread they infect ALL social media platforms with misinformation.

The US propaganda machine is probably 1000 times the size of the Iranian one.

 

[PalmettoTiger1]

strait of Hormuz open...to every carrier except US and Israel....according to Iran Foreign Minister ....some have already passed through.

Not sure what that means....

The USA and Israel are letting Iran win short term

They are readying for an amphibious attack on the beaches at Iran for the island

Then they will lock out the straits using foreign navy’s and then carpet bomb the coastal areas on the straits

Recommend no fishing as fishing season closes soon

 

[Dadar]

And thus far who is making out the "best" out of this whole situation?? Putin, because we just lifted sanctions as far as his oil goes so he's cleaning up because of trump's "excursion".

Trump is Putin's puppet

 

[Dadar]

It was totally unnecessary. Why is it on us to bail Israel out?? They got no problem bombing the sh+t out of the Palestinians or Lebanon so why can't they do the same with Iran?? It''s trump being a tough guy with a country that poses no immediate threat to the U.S.

It is a convenient diversion from the Epstein cover up

 

[Dadar]

"He also slammed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, saying he was “far more difficult to make a deal with” than Russian President Vladimir Putin over efforts to end the war in Ukraine. Trump’s comments follow criticism from global leaders after the U.S. eased sanctions on Russian oil in an effort to mitigate surging global oil prices."

Trump says Iran is ready to negotiate a ceasefire but he's not ready to make a deal

The president said the "terms aren't good enough yet" to make a deal with Iran amid a widening war in the Middle East.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[baltimorened]

I don’t think they had “no” plan, I just think the under estimated Iran capabilities as it pertains to the straight. No chance Iran can keep it up buuuuuuuuuuuuut they are going to make life difficult for a bit.

I also think we under estimated Iran’s decision to lob missiles at their neighbor countries.

Also the Iranian propaganda machine is impressive … just by how quickly and wide spread they infect ALL social media platforms with misinformation.

I doubt anybody thought that Iran's retaliation plan was to attack neighbors, who might well have been the nation-states to pressure trump on ending the war. Rather Iran brought the entire region against him militarily and politically right off the bat. Not sure how much sense that made..but relatively sure they had some reason

 

[baltimorened]

It is a convenient diversion from the Epstein cover up

yea, that's it!

 

[other1]

yea, that's it!

Well they are certainly scrambling to cover the whole mess up so it remains a possibility. Desperate people take desperate measures.

 

[ANEW]

Well they are certainly scrambling to cover the whole mess up so it remains a possibility. Desperate people take desperate measures.

But maybe the war is to avoid releasing the ufo files and to get us to forget about getting a real inventory done on the gold in Ft. Knox.

 

[PAWrocka]

The US propaganda machine is probably 1000 times the size of the Iranian one.

Fair …

I doubt anybody thought that Iran's retaliation plan was to attack neighbors, who might well have been the nation-states to pressure trump on ending the war. Rather Iran brought the entire region against him militarily and politically right off the bat. Not sure how much sense that made..but relatively sure they had some reason

my guess is that the thought process is too cause enough chaos where it prompts everyone in the region to jump in truly setting off WW3. Maybe inspires to China to jump in, or attack Taiwan, or India to attack Pakistan … some other conflict that splits our attention.

 

[MTTiger19]

They continually said they would wipe us off the map and were developing capabilities to do just that.


Look, I don’t like the war. But to say there was no threat seems incorrect to me. They were a well armed country that calls for our annihilation.

My question here is are they are real threat or are they a threat like Iraq was a “threat”. To me, if it’s the latter, it’s like Mike Tyson kicking the **** out of some old lady and telling you he had to protect himself. I admittedly don’t know, but history suggests that they’re not near the threat they’re being made out to be.

 

[baltimorened]

My question here is are they are real threat or are they a threat like Iraq was a “threat”. To me, if it’s the latter, it’s like Mike Tyson kicking the **** out of some old lady and telling you he had to protect himself. I admittedly don’t know, but history suggests that they’re not near the threat they’re being made out to be.

For a conventional threat, not any more. We still need to get that nuclear material though

 

[fatpiggy]

My question here is are they are real threat or are they a threat like Iraq was a “threat”. To me, if it’s the latter, it’s like Mike Tyson kicking the **** out of some old lady and telling you he had to protect himself. I admittedly don’t know, but history suggests that they’re not near the threat they’re being made out to be.

I don't know about that. They seem to be putting up a pretty good fight right now. I think they killed Netanyahu. They pretty much destroyed Mosaad headquarters this morning. This thing is far from over.

 

[baltimorened]

I don't know about that. They seem to be putting up a pretty good fight right now. I think they killed Netanyahu. They pretty much destroyed Mosaad headquarters this morning. This thing is far from over.

I'm not sure where you're getting your info, not that it is wrong, but I just looked at both CNN and Fox and neither of them has stories on netanyahu or Mossad.

 

[MTTiger19]

I'm not sure where you're getting your info, not that it is wrong, but I just looked at both CNN and Fox and neither of them has stories on netanyahu or Mossad.

There’s a lot of smoke about this Ned. There’s some legs to this. Idk if it turns out to be true but it’s not a wild conspiracy.

 

[fatpiggy]

I'm not sure where you're getting your info, not that it is wrong, but I just looked at both CNN and Fox and neither of them has stories on netanyahu or Mossad.

It's all over X. All the eastern media is reporting it. I admit it could be propaganda.

However, other things i believe to be true
a) Neither he nor his son have tweeted in 6 days. His son was a prolific tweeter averaging 50 tweets per day
b) Israel arrested an indian reporter who gave aways Bibi's location, perhaps unwittingly.
c) Israel released a video of Netanyahu that was pretty clearly AI. He clearly had 6 fingers and his mouth was moving funny.
d) Of course they wouldn't want to announce it. It would be a devastating blow to morale.
e) Scott Bessent was abruptly interuppted from a live interview a couple of days ago. He was summoned to speak with Trump. Many think this is when the news of Netanyahu's death was delivered.
f) This has been going on for 6-7 days now and he could easily dispel the rumors by making a live appearance. But he hasn't.

I think he's dead. I admit it could be a big propaganda operation and im falling for fake news. But my gut tells me he is gone.

 

[JohnHughsPartner]

There’s a lot of smoke about this Ned. There’s some legs to this. Idk if it turns out to be true but it’s not a wild conspiracy.

If he is dead, that would prove @fatpiggy point even more as far as their capability

 

[bdgan]

My question here is are they are real threat or are they a threat like Iraq was a “threat”. To me, if it’s the latter, it’s like Mike Tyson kicking the **** out of some old lady and telling you he had to protect himself. I admittedly don’t know, but history suggests that they’re not near the threat they’re being made out to be.

I guess the question of whether Iran is a threat to the USA depends on how you define a threat. They certainly aren't in a position to massively attack the USA directly but they have been attacking the USA indirectly for 5 decades. In fact the Iranian regime provided advice and training to Al Qaeda. They also facilitated the transit of Al Qaeda members in and out of Afghanistan before and after the 9/11 attacks.

Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the Iranian regime has waged a sustained campaign of violence against the United States—killing U.S. troops, targeting diplomats and civilians, and plotting attacks on American soil. Using proxies such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces - together with ballistic missiles, terror financing, and clandestine activities - Tehran has built a global playbook of violence that spans four decades, all in its efforts to expel the U.S. and reshape the Middle East in its favor.

 

[PalmettoTiger1]

It was totally unnecessary. Why is it on us to bail Israel out?? They got no problem bombing the sh+t out of the Palestinians or Lebanon so why can't they do the same with Iran?? It''s trump being a tough guy with a country that poses no immediate threat to the U.S.

Iran made it totally necessary

We are bailing out the Arab countries. Not Israel

My question here is are they are real threat or are they a threat like Iraq was a “threat”. To me, if it’s the latter, it’s like Mike Tyson kicking the **** out of some old lady and telling you he had to protect himself. I admittedly don’t know, but history suggests that they’re not near the threat they’re being made out to be.

The nuclear bomb threat was very real

Next the Iranian were bullying the entire ME as everyone knew they were supporting terrorism and would leave Iran alone as long as they let the Iranians do their evil

Eliminating Iran is breathing sighs of relief throughout all of the rational ME leaders

 

[Moogy]

The nuclear bomb threat was very real

Says who? We were told their nuclear program was obliterated just a short while ago. If that wasn't a lie, and their nuke program was so rehabilitated and advanced in such a short time, and we're so convinced its existence/completion is such an imminent dire threat .... then we're either going to repeat this in perpetuity, and bankrupt ourselves in the process ... or we just need to stop sucking at this and take over the entire nation.

Or ... maybe ... just maybe ... someone is slinging ish that no reasonable person could/would believe.

 

[other1]

Iran made it totally necessary

We are bailing out the Arab countries. Not Israel



The nuclear bomb threat was very real

Next the Iranian were bullying the entire ME as everyone knew they were supporting terrorism and would leave Iran alone as long as they let the Iranians do their evil

Eliminating Iran is breathing sighs of relief throughout all of the rational ME leaders

If anyone is bullying the ME it is Israel. Just look at the terror campaign they waged against the Palestinians. Pakistan and India have nuclear bombs so why aren't they considered a threat to the region?? Pakistan isn't the most stable crew going.

 

[Dadar]

“Let’s Just Do It”: How Netanyahu Convinced Trump to Bomb Iran

Here’s the real reason Donald Trump went to war with Iran.

newrepublic.com

 

[ANEW]

I doubt anybody thought that Iran's retaliation plan was to attack neighbors, who might well have been the nation-states to pressure trump on ending the war. Rather Iran brought the entire region against him militarily and politically right off the bat. Not sure how much sense that made..but relatively sure they had some reason

Ned, If I had to guess, I'd think that it was always considered, and probably wargamed as enemy branch plan or sequel to some blue force action. Surely some red force commander took that action along the way either on an ad-hoc basis or as a scripted action to pull the thread on that potential enemy COA.

However (and i'm not telling you anything you don't know), that doesnt mean that it was considered a likely enemy COA by the staff currently in the fight.

Attacking neighbors makes sense as a high-risk , maybe even last-ditch, attempt to escalate in order to get the US to back off on it's own OR with pressure from the gulf countries getting attacked making unhappy faces and grumbling and alluding to restricting use of bases on their soil.

They (Iran) started hitting out randomly pretty early. Given that, the other way it makes sense is that the violence and success of the initial decapitation strikes, followed up relentlessly by attacks on C2 infrastructure, left lower level commanders operating on pre-established "doomsday"-type orders.

I am of the opinion that, these actions are not helping Iran, and indeed, having the opposite effect is due to groundwork laid by Trump 1.0 and reinforced by his tour of the gulf states early in 2.0. Nobody loves a winner and respects power more than that part of the world. EVERYONE knows the power of the US. What is always in question, however, is the WILL of the US. I think that the reason that the attacks from Iran are having the opposite effect is down to Trump. They all want Iran neutered and they are hitching their wagon to Trump as a strong leader. When this is over, if this turns out right, there is a real chance of a reshaped middle east.

 

[PalmettoTiger1]

If anyone is bullying the ME it is Israel. Just look at the terror campaign they waged against the Palestinians. Pakistan and India have nuclear bombs so why aren't they considered a threat to the region?? Pakistan isn't the most stable crew going.

Israel is also bailing out the ME with the US being the lead dog

Your words are wishful thinking and not on the grounds facts

The entire ME in general is getting along with Israel

Iran has been the number one problem for 47 years

 

[baltimorened]

Ned, If I had to guess, I'd think that it was always considered, and probably wargamed as enemy branch plan or sequel to some blue force action. Surely some red force commander took that action along the way either on an ad-hoc basis or as a scripted action to pull the thread on that potential enemy COA.

However (and i'm not telling you anything you don't know), that doesnt mean that it was considered a likely enemy COA by the staff currently in the fight.

Attacking neighbors makes sense as a high-risk , maybe even last-ditch, attempt to escalate in order to get the US to back off on it's own OR with pressure from the gulf countries getting attacked making unhappy faces and grumbling and alluding to restricting use of bases on their soil.

They (Iran) started hitting out randomly pretty early. Given that, the other way it makes sense is that the violence and success of the initial decapitation strikes, followed up relentlessly by attacks on C2 infrastructure, left lower level commanders operating on pre-established "doomsday"-type orders.

I am of the opinion that, these actions are not helping Iran, and indeed, having the opposite effect is due to groundwork laid by Trump 1.0 and reinforced by his tour of the gulf states early in 2.0. Nobody loves a winner and respects power more than that part of the world. EVERYONE knows the power of the US. What is always in question, however, is the WILL of the US. I think that the reason that the attacks from Iran are having the opposite effect is down to Trump. They all want Iran neutered and they are hitching their wagon to Trump as a strong leader. When this is over, if this turns out right, there is a real chance of a reshaped middle east.

can't argue against any of your points, and totally agree that there's a great chance, likely best since 1979, of a reshaped, for the better, mideast

 

[PapaGanoush]

It was totally unnecessary. Why is it on us to bail Israel out?? They got no problem bombing the sh+t out of the Palestinians or Lebanon so why can't they do the same with Iran?? It''s trump being a tough guy with a country that poses no immediate threat to the U.S.

Are you for women’s rights?