Everyone should read this article.

[Bcash2]

It's a little long, but goes over the math re: the spread of this virus. This was written about a week ago. It's worth your time. I hope everyone is currently safe and remaining safe.

https://medium.com/@Jason_Scott_War...st-understand-about-the-pandemic-2b0145881993

To kind of prove this guys point about the spread, see this section:

"The count of actual virus infections doubles every ~3 days. The news and government agencies are lagging in their response. So we hear that the US only has 1573 cases today (3/12/20) [update as of 3/15/20: 3115 confirmed cases), ( see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) and it doesn’t seem like a lot."

Now, let's check the site that he linked. It is 3/18/20 today, 6 days after the article was written. Today's confirmed number of cases is 7,568 at the time of typing this.

Additionally, "Harvard Medical School / Massachusetts General Hospital just released their estimate (recording is here: https://externalmediasite.partners.org/…/53a4003de5ab4b4da5… that the actual cases are 50x greater than the reported cases. So we likely have 75,000 cases in the United States already."

 

[My Bru]

This also means the death rate is 50x lower. That doesn't fit your agenda though.

 

[deadheaddawg]

lol.

Imagine still calling this "an agenda"

 

[UpTheMiddlex3Punt]

The problem is that you can't measure the death rate based on live data. The duration of the disease is still a significant portion of the time that the disease has existed. If 10,000 people catch COVID-19 today those people will still be alive today whether or not their cases are ever confirmed. Four weeks from now it will be a different story for those 10,000 people.

 

[Drebin]

This also means the death rate is 50x lower. That doesn't fit your agenda though.

This is assuming that all flu and pneumonia deaths are not undetected covid-19 cases.

 

[benatmsu]

Man, if Dawgstudent doesn't give this guy the custom title of "Epidemiologist", then the virus has already won.

lol.

Imagine still calling this "an agenda"

 

[UpTheMiddlex3Punt]

I think they're doing post-mortem tests of a lot of suspected deaths. If you die of pneumonia in the next year they are probably running a COVID-19 test on you.

It can also lead to an overestimation of deaths. What if someone is an asymptomatic carrier of COVID-19 and dies from viral pneumonia caused by another virus? If they detect COVID-19 in the post-mortem, do they count it as a COVID-19 death?

 

[Bcash2]

Christ man, what "agenda" are you talking about? I'm just trying to spread facts about an issue. This wasn't meant to be any kind of sleight against anyone or anything, and the fact that you can apparently interpret it as that is baffling.

I'm just gonna go ahead and assume you didn't read the article. Thanks for your valuable input though.

 

[aTotal360]

It shocks me people don't realize most of this math is speculative. It's all relative to testing and being tested. I'm not insinuating the numbers should be higher or lower, but 17, how do you arrive at anything solid when the first number you enter into the equation has a massive variable?

 

[My Bru]

It shocks me people don't realize most of this math is speculative. It's all relative to testing and being tested. I'm not insinuating the numbers should be higher or lower, but 17, how do you arrive at anything solid when the first number you enter into the equation has a massive variable?

Deaths are a lot easier to count than the cases.

 

[Bcash2]

The math showing the rate of spread for confirmed cases is not speculative. It is fact.

After that, you can choose to not believe estimations on what the number of infected actually is, but the math showing the rate at which it is currently spreading based on tests showing positive is not disputable.

 

[o_Hot Rock]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

As of yesterday, there had been 231 known corona viruses in the US to come to a conclusion, of those, 125 died.

I do not think that means that we have a 54% death rate to Corona virus in the States. I say that it means the data is too limited for us to know. It's limited because we weren't testing and we only tested the very sick at first.

As of yesterday, the US still has 7,708 cases that are open and with 12 that are seriously critical. That data suggests just the opposite and that very few will die. I have no idea what to think other than to listen to the President, health authorities and use precautions. I am at work right now but I work in an isolated environment. I am eating lunch at my desk and not going to anything where I don't have to go.

I have some supplies stored up to last about a month and I don't see why anyone wouldn't take those kinds of precautions. If get it and its mild, I can go home to sleep it off and not infect the world going after a bottle juice.

 

[Hump4Hoops]

It's 2020, we live in the post-truth era.

If you don't like the facts, just cite your own "alternative facts."

 

[MadDawg.sixpack]

I could think of a better one.

.

Man, if Dawgstudent doesn't give this guy the custom title of "Epidemiologist", then the virus has already won.

 

[Bcash2]

Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you're saying.

ETA: Yes it seems i was somehow misunderstanding what you were saying/point you were making. I'll still just leave these here since visuals are nice.

Again, as is stated in the article, death rate is not really the most important issue here.

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View attachment 15587

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[Bucky Dog]

Deaths are a lot easier to count than the cases.

Bingo!!

With limited testing the actual known positive cases is still way under the number that actually have it. The deaths are a certain, or more certain number. Therefore you can have distorted death rates. If you put all of this together and as we get more definite data I believe this tension of uncertainty will go down dramatically.

Most medical folks are saying and feel it is more contagious, but the death rates will be around the same or slightly higher than the flu. Up to 90% who test positive are having mild to no symptoms. So with what I said earlier many of us could have it and not know it or bother to go get tested because we have cold/allergy symptoms.

We are all at home a few weeks to slow the spread and not create more panic and overwhelm the hospitals and healthcare. It also allows us time to gather real US data as I mentioned and see the best current available treatment options including anti viral cocktails.

We WILL get through this all together!

 

[o_Hot Rock]

That's a good for sure, I should have posted that instead of trying to type and work at the same time.

My thing is this: It's too early in the game to know what we have from US data because too few cases have come to conclusion. From world data you gather more info but it's also misleading with varying test protocols. South Korea has tested at the highest rate but it's still early. From what information we have gathered, it shows that it spreads and quickly and can overwhelm our ability to treat everyone. Arguing over number of beds is mute to me once it became apparent at least to me just how fast it can grow. Even if we have the beds, we may not have the personnel to work them.

If you can't grasp the numbers or accept them please just listen. According to the "experts", including our President! We need to take precautions to prevent a healthcare collapse. We aren't stopping it, just slowing it down. So, lets' do that already!

 

[patdog]

Those numbers just don't make any sense at all. The data that's feeding this graphic is seriously 17ed up.

 

[Go Budaw]

It shocks me people don't realize most of this math is speculative. It's all relative to testing and being tested. I'm not insinuating the numbers should be higher or lower, but 17, how do you arrive at anything solid when the first number you enter into the equation has a massive variable?

The same phenomenon you mention exists for the normal flu, as well as every other viral disease out there. Not everyone that gets the flu gets tested or even shows any symptoms, either.

 

[Ranchdawg]

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/harv...ationals-charged-three-separate-china-related

 

[Bcash2]

what do you mean?

 

[patdog]

We're to believe that there are only 12 people in the whole USA currently seriously ill with the virus? Or that the virus is 54% lethal among resolved cases? The number of recovered patients is probably too low, and the number of seriously ill currently is certainly WAY too low.

 

[Bcash2]

Yea I'm not sure where that specific data is coming from...

.. the overall data is pretty close to, although a little higher than, what is listed here on the CDC.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

ETA: yes the data regarding 'resolved cases' is not painting a true picture at the moment. I think that's because all of the testing and data that is out there is very recent. SO, we'll see a lot more "resolved" cases in the future as people get over the illness, and that death rate will obviously drop drastically.

 

[WilCoDawg]

The Al Gore of the Wuhan virus!

 

[WhiteShepherd07]

https://covidtracking.com/data/

This is a much better site bc it shows how many people have actually gotten tested. If all you’re looking at is the death toll and how many people have gotten it then you have nothing to compare it to.

So far only 10% of those tested are Positive which is way better than what was orchestrated by the media. Additionally only 1% of those positive have died.

 

[EagleDawg97]

Data needs some time to normalize

The data is just too fluid at this point to be trusted. A week ago the mortality rate was over 4%, and today it’s 1.5%. As more people are tested we will have many more positive test. It is much easier to identify a death at this point than an infected person. So few people are being tested, and even then only those with severe symptoms.

 

[WhiteShepherd07]

Exactly. Those with severe symptoms are the ones being tested currently so there should be more positives in relation to the number tested. The fact that only 10% have so far is incredible.

 

[Todd4State]

The data is just too fluid at this point to be trusted. A week ago the mortality rate was over 4%, and today it’s 1.5%. As more people are tested we will have many more positive test. It is much easier to identify a death at this point than an infected person. So few people are being tested, and even then only those with severe symptoms.

It also takes a little while for the test results to come back. So as the test results come in it's going to look even worse.

 

[Bcash2]

Agreed, and thanks for this. However, the point of the point of the original post wasn't the death toll, but more that the numbers are stacking up exactly the guy in the article laid out one week ago. Positive cases are multiplying by 2 every 3 days. Which was the entire point of his post and explaining we we need be using extreme distancing measures. Good resource though, thanks again.

 

[Bobby Ricigliano]

I’ve been checking that site pretty regularly all week. The serious or critical cases has been 12 for several days.

 

[mstateglfr]

I have no idea what to think other than to listen to the President, health authorities and use precautions.

If you are listening to both the president and health authorities, you must have been confused as 17 for the last 8 weeks. It would be difficult to follow what both have suggested and claimed, since they have often been contradictory, even when made in the same press conference/event.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

This also means the death rate is 50x lower. That doesn't fit your agenda though.

"Agenda"ing, politicalizing, and ignorance are going to kill a lot of people. Folks everywhere need to STFU and listen to the health experts.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

The math showing the rate of spread for confirmed cases is not speculative. It is fact.

After that, you can choose to not believe estimations on what the number of infected actually is, but the math showing the rate at which it is currently spreading based on tests showing positive is not disputable.

Facts won't mean a lot for a majority of people until we hit the next stage of this thing.

 

[G-Dawg]

If you are listening to both the president and health authorities, you must have been confused as 17 for the last 8 weeks. It would be difficult to follow what both have suggested and claimed, since they have often been contradictory, even when made in the same press conference/event.

We get it. You hate this President. Let me ask you to go find the posts on here where you were warning everyone about this virus 8 weeks ago. Or 6 weeks ago for that matter. Hell, show me one from a month ago and I'll retract everything I said. ALOT of us have changed our views about this thing over the past few weeks. Yes, the president has access to better information than we do (or at least SHOULD), but there is no denying he's up 18-20 hours a day working on this.

 

[mstateglfr]

We get it. You hate this President. Let me ask you to go find the posts on here where you were warning everyone about this virus 8 weeks ago. Or 6 weeks ago for that matter. Hell, show me one from a month ago and I'll retract everything I said. ALOT of us have changed our views about this thing over the past few weeks. Yes, the president has access to better information than we do (or at least SHOULD), but there is no denying he's up 18-20 hours a day working on this.

Reverse your challenge and find posts where i was mocking disease experts like he was. Find posts where I was trying to create wedge questions that are meant to reduce the seriousness of the pandemic. Show me posts where I dismiss the seriousness of the outbreak.
You wont find those because I didnt do any of that. The same(and much more) cant be said about Trump.
It's even more egregious since, as you point out, he has access to better information and sooner than us common folk.



You may not like that I pointed out how Trump continually claimed things that completely conflicted with disease experts, but being pissed at me for pointing it out is misdirected.
You should take issue with him for his comments and his many incorrect claims and mistruths.

Dude is an antivaxer who tried to dismiss away a pandemic all the way until it was just so blatantly clear he couldn't continue his alternate reality, that he pulled a straight up 180 and claimed he had been on board this whole time.

Who the 17 could experience this set of events and support it?


Agreed, he is on board now. So that's nice.

 

[G-Dawg]

I'm not defending him. In fact, I held my nose to vote for him over Hillary, but still think he made some big mistakes with this. My only problem is how quick some people are to point out EVERY minute detail of wrong from him. It's a default mode. And I will concede to you that you're right about early on. I take back my comments. I think his ego prevents him from listening to smart people sometime. But could we wait and do finger pointing AFTER this crisis is averted? Is that too much to ask?

 

[deadheaddawg]

I'm not defending him. In fact, I held my nose to vote for him over Hillary, but still think he made some big mistakes with this. My only problem is how quick some people are to point out EVERY minute detail of wrong from him. It's a default mode. And I will concede to you that you're right about early on. I take back my comments. I think his ego prevents him from listening to smart people sometime. But could we wait and do finger pointing AFTER this crisis is averted? Is that too much to ask?

The thing about pointing out every minute detail is ....he's whole persona is one of an extreme antagonist. A man know for insults and ruffling feathers

Did y'all listen to his presser today? He made it a point to bring up "sleepy Joe" . During a press conference .... during a national crisis he resorts to petty name calling ....so you are asking his critics to hold of because now is not the time..... Did you listened to trump talk today? That's not going to happen until he start acting like a president

And not just today. His tweets insulting people are a mile long. I could go on and on. We all know it. He likes to ruffle feathers and antagonize. So when trump does that.....well you get what you give.

And before you respond remember I'm the one that has been running around insulting people here and now has so many people commenting on it....my MO is the exact same as Trump's MO... antagonize and insult. I'm not popular here because I interact with other people the same way trump does.

So with all due respect, maybe don't try to play the trump victim card. Not when he's playing insult politics....right now....in the middle of all this....it's kinda sorta hypocritical

 

[dawgphd]

Another article. Not submitted as right or wrong. Just different.

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-nobel-laureate-Coronavirus-spread-is-slowing-621145

 

[paindonthurt_]

Are you insinuating that the death rate is accurate? Sincerely curious.

 

[Ranchdawg]

Sleepy Joe and the Commie have been attacking him relentlessly through this whol ordeal. If you can't take it find your safe space and hunker down. He wasn't my first choice either but I love how he handles PC police like you.