Evaluating Mark Stoops recruiting vs Stein's current class

[TheKentuckyKid]

Stoops (2013 & 2022) vs. Stein (Current)
This analysis evaluates college football market demand for Kentucky's recruiting classes using the **Offer Premium Index (OPI)**. Points are assigned based on a recruit's highest committable scholarship offer at signing: **Tier 1** (National Contenders) equals 5 points, **Tier 2** (Premium Power 4) equals 3 points, **Tier 3** (Baseline Power 4) equals 1 point, and **Tier 4** (Group of 5 / Specialists) equals 0 points.
The Class Breakdowns
Mark Stoops' 2013 Class: This 29-commit class included 2 Tier 1 prospects, 4 Tier 2 prospects, 6 Tier 3 prospects, and 17 Tier 4 prospects. This distribution resulted in a cumulative OPI score of 28 and an average OPI per recruit of **0.97**.
* **Mark Stoops' 2022 Class:** This 21-commit class included 5 Tier 1 prospects, 7 Tier 2 prospects, 5 Tier 3 prospects, and 4 Tier 4 prospects. This distribution resulted in a cumulative OPI score of 51 and an average OPI per recruit of **2.43**.
* **Will Stein's Current Class:** This 21-commit class includes 6 Tier 1 prospects, 11 Tier 2 prospects, 4 Tier 3 prospects, and 0 Tier 4 prospects. This distribution resulted in a cumulative OPI score of 67 and an average OPI per recruit of **3.19**.
### Factual Summary of Structural Differences
The data shows that Stein’s class contains more top-end talent than both Stoops recruiting classes, securing 6 Tier 1 prospects compared to 5 in Stoops' peak 2022 class and 2 in his 2013 class.
The primary mathematical variation occurs at the bottom of the recruiting classes. While 58.6% of Stoops' 2013 class (17 players) and 19% of his 2022 class (4 players) were Tier 4 additions with no competing Power 4 offers, Stein’s class has zero Tier 4 additions. Every player in Stein's class holds an active Power 4 offer, which mathematically raises both the cumulative score (67) and the overall average per recruit
(3.19).

 

[JimboBBN]

Awesome data. Thanks for sharing. I think that last part is my favorite thing about Stein's recruiting so far (outside of landing Nawrot). Every player Stein has gotten a commitment from was offered by another Power 4 school. No beating out cupcake schools for lesser talented players. We are going after top end talent.

 

[KentuckyStout]

Hopefully this ends the nonsensical talk the Stoops recruited just as well as Stein is now...but it probably won't.

With that being said - recruiting in the SEC is just absolutely brutal. I would think there is really a pretty fine line between a 6th ranked and an 8th ranked SEC class, and the real difference is evaluating and coaching them up.

Imagine if Stein one day gets Kentucky into a top-5 SEC class

 

[UKJenning]

Love it! Stein is going against and beating other power schools for recruits.

 

[TX Wildcat]

I have no facts or statistics to support this, but on top of the statistical prowess of Stein's recruiting it seems he is getting top commitments earlier in the cycle (looking at the '27 class) than Stoops did in later years. Heck, Will and his staff are already working hard to get '28 commitments. Then again, the simple energy of it all might be clouding my memory.

 

[AustinTXCat]

Nice work. Thanks.

 

[TheResistance]

 

[KyWilson239]

Hopefully this ends the nonsensical talk the Stoops recruited just as well as Stein is now...but it probably won't.

With that being said - recruiting in the SEC is just absolutely brutal. I would think there is really a pretty fine line between a 6th ranked and an 8th ranked SEC class, and the real difference is evaluating and coaching them up.

Imagine if Stein one day gets Kentucky into a top-5 SEC class

Surely no one is saying that. In less than 12 months, Stein and Co. have put Vince Marrow(a supposed ace recruiter) in a corner. This is what happens when you have a real staff and not just a bunch of guys that are buddies with the HC. Stoops last couple staffs were an absolute embarrassment. Couple the poor staff with a bland defense, a putrid offense, dog crap special teams and it was honestly impressive that Stoops recruited as well as he did.

 

[bigblueinsanity (the real)]

Just from the eyeball test stein is recruiting noticably better, which is saying something because stoops recruited well above the curve for UKs norm.

Now the development stage. Stoops and company really made their difference here by finding many diamonds in the rough. If Stein can also nail the development portion then we will really be on our way. Nowadays that's going to start with retention.

 

[TheResistance]

 

[Dead Cat Bounce]

Quick question: why 2013 and 2022? Is that first and best?

 

[TheKentuckyKid]

Quick question: why 2013 and 2022? Is that first and best?

Yes

 

[Bowfreak.]

What am I missing from this list? No Alabama, no Texas, no LSU and UK is the 3rd ranked SEC team? This is hard for me to believe....

 

[bigblueinsanity (the real)]

What am I missing from this list? No Alabama, no Texas, no LSU and UK is the 3rd ranked SEC team? This is hard for me to believe....

I think its two things:

1) we're locking in people unusually early. We still have to get them here but we have them committed.

2) we are taking somewhat of an unusual approach by investing so much in highschool. Many teams are going to save for the portal.

 

[Cat_Man_Blue]

What am I missing from this list? No Alabama, no Texas, no LSU and UK is the 3rd ranked SEC team? This is hard for me to believe....

I think it is a case of low number of commits. Everyone of those teams will finish in the top 25.

 

[rick64]

Can't wait for football season to see what the on the field product looks like. Brutal schedule for 2026 though.

 

[Bowfreak.]

I think it is a case of low number of commits. Everyone of those teams will finish in the top 25.

So it is a way too early list.

Makes sense....

 

[Bluedog1]

Surely no one is saying that. In less than 12 months, Stein and Co. have put Vince Marrow(a supposed ace recruiter) in a corner. This is what happens when you have a real staff and not just a bunch of guys that are buddies with the HC. Stoops last couple staffs were an absolute embarrassment. Couple the poor staff with a bland defense, a putrid offense, dog crap special teams and it was honestly impressive that Stoops recruited as well as he did.

I agree. I like Coach Stoops , but I never liked Marrow. I know he pulled in Benny Snell , and CRod and some other really talented kids, but over all I thought he was nothing but a hype machine that other recruiters could do just as well as. I appreciate that Coach Stoops knew building good lines could make you competitive in the SEC. We just had so many in game blunders that cost us games, that I questioned his in game coaching. Glad me moved on and have an exciting offense to recruit to and a young aggressive coach. When people get older and have alot of money they just dont work as hard. proven fact.

 

[theBlues]

Stoops' problem wasn't recruiting; it was coaching.

 

[Buckwheat Otay Is Dead]

Fran Curci, former coach of UK, told me 3 things made a great football player. But 1 thing made them great. Size, and desire is what people see but what makes super players is quickness, not speed but football quickness. He said it doesn’t matter how big and strong you are or how hard you work to get better. If your not quick enough to make a block or make a tackle the player will fail.

 

[will.ksr]

Cool stuff! Thanks for providing those numbers. I guess my questions have never been about Stoops vs Stein per se. Seemed silly to compare what are two different eras with portal and NIL. I don’t know if I’d do offers either since they aren’t usually reliable as opposed to just the star ranking

What I’ve wondered….the standard deviation difference between Stoops first class and Joker’s three year average? Then compare that to Stein’s (currently committed) first class to do the same against Stoops average last three classes.

My guess: Stoops raised the recruiting ceiling a lot compared to Joker. Stein’s increase is more marginal if this class stays Top 20-25.

 

[Goingfor9]

Stoops was great at evaluating and developing players. His best player at Kentucky at least top two was a 2* or very low 3* who stoops turned into one of our greatest defenders all time

 

[CRZ4UK]

Hopefully this ends the nonsensical talk the Stoops recruited just as well as Stein is now...but it probably won't.

With that being said - recruiting in the SEC is just absolutely brutal. I would think there is really a pretty fine line between a 6th ranked and an 8th ranked SEC class, and the real difference is evaluating and coaching them up.

Imagine if Stein one day gets Kentucky into a top-5 SEC class

This data means very little. One example before NIL. One after. No comparison.
The SEC revenue allows them now to out recruit other conferences based on Rev Share pay to recruits. Every SEC team should be pulling in better players top to bottom than they were 10 years ago.
Really, the only true difference you can measure is where do we finish in conference. Stoops usually finished in the bottom 4-5 in conference.
I think Stein will also end up recruiting bottom 4 or 5. There is always excitement with new coaches. They are hungry and energetic. Can Stein make an Ole Miss jump and finish higher. I guess we will see.

 

[CRZ4UK]

What am I missing from this list? No Alabama, no Texas, no LSU and UK is the 3rd ranked SEC team? This is hard for me to believe....

That’s because classes are not finished. All those schools you mentioned will end up ahead of UK when all is said and done.

 

[AJBlue]

Hopefully this ends the nonsensical talk the Stoops recruited just as well as Stein is now...but it probably won't.

With that being said - recruiting in the SEC is just absolutely brutal. I would think there is really a pretty fine line between a 6th ranked and an 8th ranked SEC class, and the real difference is evaluating and coaching them up.

Imagine if Stein one day gets Kentucky into a top-5 SEC class

I think the fine line is more between 5 and 12 in the league now. The top 3 or 4 separate themselves but the next 8 are almost interchangable as far as actual starting talent in their classes and the spread in recruiting points is minimal. Thats why we see a different bunch of those teams taking their turn at the top half of the conference any give year. Coaching makes the rest of the difference.

 

[The Nightman2]

This data means very little. One example before NIL. One after. No comparison.
The SEC revenue allows them now to out recruit other conferences based on Rev Share pay to recruits. Every SEC team should be pulling in better players top to bottom than they were 10 years ago.
Really, the only true difference you can measure is where do we finish in conference. Stoops usually finished in the bottom 4-5 in conference.
I think Stein will also end up recruiting bottom 4 or 5. There is always excitement with new coaches. They are hungry and energetic. Can Stein make an Ole Miss jump and finish higher. I guess we will see.

Lol all schools are capped at 20.5 million in rev share.

 

[Snarks]

Shows how mediocre Stoops was. Stein blowing him out of the water year 1

 

[JASUN74]

I don’t know about everyone else, but that’s a thing of beauty in my old eyes. Considering how long the staff has been here, and how much recruiting is based on building relationships, this is amazing work. It definitely looks good for future recruiting classes.

 

[JASUN74]

What am I missing from this list? No Alabama, no Texas, no LSU and UK is the 3rd ranked SEC team? This is hard for me to believe....

Bama only has around 10 so far so they’ll move up no doubt. A few will pass us but we also have a few spots left as well. If we can add a couple more highly ranked kids we could stay close to here. Not that it really matters, we’re getting some great young talent but I love looking at these lists with Kentucky high on them. .

 

[JASUN74]

I think its two things:

1) we're locking in people unusually early. We still have to get them here but we have them committed.

2) we are taking somewhat of an unusual approach by investing so much in highschool. Many teams are going to save for the portal.

Every college team will take 24 25 maybe more. Won’t affect the portal.

 

[JASUN74]

Stoops was great at evaluating and developing players. His best player at Kentucky at least top two was a 2* or very low 3* who stoops turned into one of our greatest defenders all time

Brad white you mean turned him into our greatest defender.

 

[*Fox2Monk*]

Awesome data. Thanks for sharing. I think that last part is my favorite thing about Stein's recruiting so far (outside of landing Nawrot). Every player Stein has gotten a commitment from was offered by another Power 4 school. No beating out cupcake schools for lesser talented players. We are going after top end talent.

Exactly, he’s not getting guys who had offers from the lowest class FB schools around. He is getting kids who had major offers everywhere.

 

[*Fox2Monk*]

Surely no one is saying that. In less than 12 months, Stein and Co. have put Vince Marrow(a supposed ace recruiter) in a corner. This is what happens when you have a real staff and not just a bunch of guys that are buddies with the HC. Stoops last couple staffs were an absolute embarrassment. Couple the poor staff with a bland defense, a putrid offense, dog crap special teams and it was honestly impressive that Stoops recruited as well as he did.

It really was. We played good defense against average teams but got mopped against real schools. Our offense was like watching an 8th grade team and our special teams and overall execution was pathetic every year.

 

[bigblueinsanity (the real)]

Brad white you mean turned him into our greatest defender.

He was the greatest success story but hardly the only. There were success stories all over the place on both sides of the ball.

Calvin Taylor is another 1 or 2* that stoops and co developed into the sec leader in sacks, which is crazy because he was a 3-4 de.

With stein's increased recruiting, if we can get even comparable development we will be well on our way to making noise.

 

[bigblueinsanity (the real)]

Every college team will take 24 25 maybe more. Won’t affect the portal.

That why i made 2 points in my post. The other point covers this.

 

[Bluetick2100]

Shows how mediocre Stoops was. Stein blowing him out of the water year 1

So, with Stein being a superior coach and recruiter than Stoops was we can expect at least 8 wins this season.

 

[phunterd]

I think a more apt comparison would be Stoops’ 2014 class which is his version of Stein’s 2027 class. While Stein does seem to be recruiting better, the 2014 class was no pushover in the rankings. In July 2013, it was ranked #1 in the country for a day or two.

 

[CB3UK]

"The Big Pickle"

 

[CB3UK]

Hopefully this ends the nonsensical talk the Stoops recruited just as well as Stein is now...but it probably won't.

Who is saying this? I haven't seen one person say that. It's pretty universally known Stein has been killing it at an unprecedented level.

 

[TheResistance]

Dominick Black, if he commits today, will be our 2nd highest rated recruit in this class.