ETH 4K
- Thread starter Apoplectic_Objurgator
- Start date
This is the one I’ve decided to be in for the long haul. I turned about $3k into $11k trading ETC last week then put it all in ETH.
edited to change the last ETC to ETH
edited to change the last ETC to ETH
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ETH is the most inefficient currency in the history of mankind and yet... it is the gas for the most innovative financial instruments in the last 400 years. Fascinating. Full disclosure I have some but not enough to use directly. Mine is on the MATIC network. When and if ETH 2.0 arrives things will get very interesting.
$HIB all the way, baby. If I would have bought it just a week before I did I’d be over $100k right now. Come ride the wave.
I’d be interested to know your top coins as you seem to have your finger on the pulse of crypto. Since both ETH and BTC are relatively inefficient, what crypto is the future for monetary exchange, smart contracts, etc?
Disclosure: I’m new to this space and just trying to get a better feel.
Disclosure: I’m new to this space and just trying to get a better feel.
ETH is deflationary.....get it while you can
I own a good amount of it.....read an article on it friday that is hard to understand, but the general consensus is that there is currently over 4 million ETH staked in ETH 2.0 and are stuck there, which makes the claim of deflationary....DAI is another one that is similar....
"That effectively is deflation for ETH......between DAI and ETH 2.0, and all the staking that happens to provide liquidity everywhere else, it wouldn't shock me if we're getting significant deflation, which is one of the reasons that ETH is skyrocketing so much"
"ETH really is uncapped in terms of how high it can go"
I own a good amount of it.....read an article on it friday that is hard to understand, but the general consensus is that there is currently over 4 million ETH staked in ETH 2.0 and are stuck there, which makes the claim of deflationary....DAI is another one that is similar....
"That effectively is deflation for ETH......between DAI and ETH 2.0, and all the staking that happens to provide liquidity everywhere else, it wouldn't shock me if we're getting significant deflation, which is one of the reasons that ETH is skyrocketing so much"
"ETH really is uncapped in terms of how high it can go"
It’s SHIB, shiba inu coin. The logo for dogecoin is a Shiba Inu dog. I’m assuming SHIB is an opportunity to remove more money from the suckers buying dogecoin.
What's the end game?
Exchange for USD to buy things/services? Replace USD to buy things/services? Compete with USD to buy things/services?
Exchange for USD to buy things/services? Replace USD to buy things/services? Compete with USD to buy things/services?
More Institutions are buying and offering clients access by the day. Visa PayPal and square all offer payments in cryptos. The USD is a Ponzi scheme corrupted by career politicians- look at real inflation figures since the COVID printing. And they’re still paying people to not work.
Basically. But a $100 investment has made me enough money to buy all the appliances for our new house. Now, it may tank, but it’s still rising. It may be dumb, and I may be a sucker like the poster above says, but I can cash out right now with real money. It’s not like I moved my retirement into it. It’s all profit on a meme.
I understand some vendors accept crypto
But I want I know what the endgame is. Can you articulate it?
But I want I know what the endgame is. Can you articulate it?
Cryptos will Change banking as we know it. Smart contracts are the future. We’ll eventually have the option of direct deposit into our Coinbase or other account. Paper money is going away and we’ll all pay by phone or bios. Govt Will track every transaction. In hindsight it was inevitable!!
If crypto actually becomes a viable currency, you may see the government crack down on it because it makes printing money more costly and cuts down on their seigniorage. If it just becomes an alternative to gold as an inflation hedge and store of value, then I think it can keep going like it is, unless and until governments get to the "outlawing ownership of gold and crypto" stage of hyperinflation.
I do think it's here to stay at this point unless and until the government effectively shuts it down, or until some technological defect/weakness becomes apparent.
Is this good for our country stability?
Sounds new world orderish to me. I get that a lot of libertarian leaning people think that this empowers individuals that have the shackles of existing fiat current removed, but hindsight might also prove that the stability enjoyed under the old Ponzi scheme was better than the distribution caused by a new Ponzi scheme and whatever monopolizing few that manage to control a replacement system.
Could go a million different ways. My bet is on the system supported by who currently controls the most productive assets (and weapons) today.
Sounds new world orderish to me. I get that a lot of libertarian leaning people think that this empowers individuals that have the shackles of existing fiat current removed, but hindsight might also prove that the stability enjoyed under the old Ponzi scheme was better than the distribution caused by a new Ponzi scheme and whatever monopolizing few that manage to control a replacement system.
Could go a million different ways. My bet is on the system supported by who currently controls the most productive assets (and weapons) today.
I like BTC and ETH and have some but dont use them on their chains. My BTC is actually WBTC from ETH that has been bridged to the Harmony chain to be 1BTC, i.e. it has been bridged twice. My ETH is WETH on the MATIC chain. I hate paying high fees and I dont like having coins sitting around collecting dust.
Not advice, DYOR etc. I like the following:
On BSC
BNB
CAKE
BUNNY
AUTO
On ONE
ONE
Viper
1BTC
1SNX
On Polygon
MATIC
Quickswap
WETH
I use Nexo for "banking" and hold it too.
Not advice, DYOR etc. I like the following:
On BSC
BNB
CAKE
BUNNY
AUTO
On ONE
ONE
Viper
1BTC
1SNX
On Polygon
MATIC
Quickswap
WETH
I use Nexo for "banking" and hold it too.
If you make it illegal to own or trade, like we once did with gold, and I suspect that will put a crimp in its usefulness.
Heavily regulated industries tend to be relatively cheap dates. As long as you give them ways to make money and sweeten the pot with extra protections against competition, you can get them to go along with whatever.
Not a student of the history of gold but when did that happen? Merely curious.
I generally agree with your analysis and will only add, Uncle Sam is in many ways the biggest, baddest gangster on the block - and will eventually
In the 30’s the Roosevelt administration required that all gold outside of jewelry and coins to be confiscated by the government. That law made trading/selling/hoarding a criminal offense. I don’t think it was overturned until Gerald Ford did so.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102
I explained crypto currency to my wife like this.....
"honey, do you recall all the political chop talk about 'globalism'?" ......"well, that is crypto in a nutshell....globalism"
"honey, do you recall all the political chop talk about 'globalism'?" ......"well, that is crypto in a nutshell....globalism"
ETH becoming deflationary generally is referring to release of “EIP-1559” release (eip = ethereum improvement project) in July which will help standardize transaction fees and burn/destroy those fees (paid in eth) rather than give them to miners. Instead, there will be a “tipping” mechanism if you have a high priority transaction you want to have near the front of the line within a block (such as buying a newly released token before anyone else in order to get the best price).
You are talking about “staking” eth which is part of the roadmap to eth 2.0 which will do away with mining and replace it with people staking (locking) their eth in a “validator” (software running on a small computer or “node” either locally or in the cloud) which will mine/confirm transactions in return for eth rewards. Final release probably year or 2 away. They have already opened the initial phase though which is more for testing but allows you to lock your ethereum for rewards although these can not be claimed till the final version goes live.
DAI is a dollar pegged decentralized stable coin by Maker DAO (MKR). It has become a rather ubiquitous stable coin at this point. You can “mint” them by providing ethereum, wbtc, or other collateral to Maker https://makerdao.com/en/ up to a certain % of your locked collateral. It’s basically a fully collaterized loan at around 5-10% interest depending on collateral type. It will automatically liquidate your collateral if it drops in price to no longer cover your debt.
Personally, I’m locking my eth in https://www.bprotocol.org/ which runs on top of maker dao. Borrowing dai. I receive BPRO token rewards for my collateral and debt I create. Basically these tokens more than offset the interest rate making it a negative interest loan. I then conservatively yield farm with my DAI on “safer” farms like curve.fi for around 20-50% APY. This is efficient way to unlock value of your eth without selling and realizing a capital gain. Will also probably pay some of my crypto taxes from last year with it.
Best part is this requires no credit checks or accounts and can be done in less than 15 minutes if you’re experienced. Don’t do this with current gas prices though. Gas was pretty low a couple of weeks ago but all these shiba tokens and the clones are currently saturating the eth network and jacking up gas prices. Why people don’t launch these meme coins on more centralized cheaper chains like matic or BSC or fantom is a mystery to me
You are talking about “staking” eth which is part of the roadmap to eth 2.0 which will do away with mining and replace it with people staking (locking) their eth in a “validator” (software running on a small computer or “node” either locally or in the cloud) which will mine/confirm transactions in return for eth rewards. Final release probably year or 2 away. They have already opened the initial phase though which is more for testing but allows you to lock your ethereum for rewards although these can not be claimed till the final version goes live.
DAI is a dollar pegged decentralized stable coin by Maker DAO (MKR). It has become a rather ubiquitous stable coin at this point. You can “mint” them by providing ethereum, wbtc, or other collateral to Maker https://makerdao.com/en/ up to a certain % of your locked collateral. It’s basically a fully collaterized loan at around 5-10% interest depending on collateral type. It will automatically liquidate your collateral if it drops in price to no longer cover your debt.
Personally, I’m locking my eth in https://www.bprotocol.org/ which runs on top of maker dao. Borrowing dai. I receive BPRO token rewards for my collateral and debt I create. Basically these tokens more than offset the interest rate making it a negative interest loan. I then conservatively yield farm with my DAI on “safer” farms like curve.fi for around 20-50% APY. This is efficient way to unlock value of your eth without selling and realizing a capital gain. Will also probably pay some of my crypto taxes from last year with it.
Best part is this requires no credit checks or accounts and can be done in less than 15 minutes if you’re experienced. Don’t do this with current gas prices though. Gas was pretty low a couple of weeks ago but all these shiba tokens and the clones are currently saturating the eth network and jacking up gas prices. Why people don’t launch these meme coins on more centralized cheaper chains like matic or BSC or fantom is a mystery to me
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Yeah I don’t really understand it, to be honest, but I guess need to start trying to learn more. But I know that I made a $2,000 buy on Dogecoin in early January, and I sold about 25% of it for around $17K and now that roughly $1,500 is worth, well... a lot. Enough that I can’t hardly check the account because the fluctuations give me so much anxiety. I’m trying to have diamond hands, but they’re shaky haha. I don’t want to be left holding the bag, but I also know if it continues on anything close to this trajectory that that small investment that I didn’t even tell my wife about could buy us a lake house.
I really need to get hooked up with someone who fully understands these markets and crypto and can help me. The only reason I bought Doge was because I could on Robinhood and was a few too many Christmas vacation beers into the night.
i have an extra bedroom when you need a place to stay
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/07/ban...witter_impression=true&recirc=taboolainternal
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/07/ban...witter_impression=true&recirc=taboolainternal
But how will the technology make money to then make it valuable to own part of that technology?
Lets say USD ends at the end of this year and we all trade in our USD for GeneralCryptoCurrency(GCC) so that we can buy and sell using GCC. Ok super.
Are you banking(pun!) on the crypto you have as being the GCC that wins out and is 'chosen' to be our currency moving forward? Everyone will trade their USD at that point and you are then hoping your amount of GCC gives you effectively more compared to what others are able to trade their USD for?
If 1 GCC = 1 USD when all this **** goes down, then you will have a little bit extra since you invested say $1000 USD now and thats worth 20000 GCC. Cool, so you 'made' some money at that point, assuming your crypto is the chosen GCC.
But you wont continue to make money on this 'investment' once we all switch to your GCC. At that point, everyone is utilizing the GCC and benefitting/suffering equally.
Its interesting that this is playing out at the working class level. I get the massive conglomerates positioning themselves to 'win', but its interesting to see the micro-level positioning of the commoners.
Nexo
The gas fees have shot way, way up....a buddy of mine showed me an example of trying to move $60 in coins (not sure which one) to Nexo Wallet this morning....the gas fee was $840!!!! I was like HOLY ****!!!....he was only showing as an example and obviously didnt do it....
are you using Nexo? they have so crazy good rates for just holding....also, you can move your crypto to the wallet ....you don't pay taxes unless you take it out....but you can however get a nexo credit card against it and use your crypto to pay it.....and you guessed it.....never pay taxes....group of buddies are doing this...similar to your negative interest loans
The gas fees have shot way, way up....a buddy of mine showed me an example of trying to move $60 in coins (not sure which one) to Nexo Wallet this morning....the gas fee was $840!!!! I was like HOLY ****!!!....he was only showing as an example and obviously didnt do it....
are you using Nexo? they have so crazy good rates for just holding....also, you can move your crypto to the wallet ....you don't pay taxes unless you take it out....but you can however get a nexo credit card against it and use your crypto to pay it.....and you guessed it.....never pay taxes....group of buddies are doing this...similar to your negative interest loans
For cryptocurrency in general, I think you are understanding it correctly. It's not intended to be an investment long term, it's intended to be a currency and store of value that is not constantly being inflated away by a government (although I guess it will be inflated away by miners for a while). This is ignoring other coins that have different purposes (such as stable coins that are specifically tied to a the value of a dollar, although I'm not sure what problem they are intended to solve).
I enter this thread as a neutral... I bring nothing more then objective, technical analysis of BTC and gold. (I know there is more to crypto than BTC, but from my view its BTC , ETH, and a 5 gallon bucket full of 5,000 gallons of shitcoins.)I am neither a hodlr or goldbug. I do not have an emotional attachment to either group, but I do appreciate a lot of smart people with a whole lot of money are believers in both. With that said, I do believe that significant inflation is on the horizon and one if not both of these asset classes should benefit.. Along with real estate (my preferred inflation hedge.)
For me there are 3 elements to investing in any asset.
1. The fundamentals -- IE the profitability of a company and projected future income.
2. The macroeconomic environment--IE the impact of current economic scenarios on a give asset.
3. The technicals--IE the buying and selling trends of a given asset.
So with BTC and gold, there are no fundamentals. So its really about the macro environment and technicals. I don't think much needs to be said about macro as everyone understands the sentiment of the entire market weighs on everything in some form or factor. The technicals though... They probably look like voodoo to a lot of people, but simply put it tracks the price action and tendencies of a given asset over a given period of time. Price action is a way to measure and predict the "speculation" of an asset. Because of the vast amount of data collected in the various markets over hundreds of years, it's technical analysis has become nearly as scientific of a form of predicting a stock or asset price as meteorology is at predicting the weather.
So I will start with my big BTC regret. I posted this in July and did not follow through on my own technical analysis. I missed the massive ride that BTC went on from end of July 2020 until Feb 2021...
View attachment 20226
I was too spooked by the risks and complications of not understanding how to properly use wallets and exchanges last summer to take any decent size position. I also looked into GBTC and did not like the fees, the structure of the trust, and investing in a 24/7 asset through a vehicle that operates M-F like a mutual fund. Seemed wrong to me (Since that time BTC is up 430% and GBTC is only up 260%... So I was right, yet stupid not to by GBTC.) It was my emotional beliefs and feelings overwhelming my technical analysis.
In late Feb I finally jumped into BTC based on technical analysis during a nice pull back and traded for about 6 weeks just using technical analysis on Coinbase and Coinbase Pro. I shared some of those trades on here and ended up making a little over a 50% return before I cashed out on April 16th after the Turkey news. I started feeling a little emotional about BTC and was happy with the returns I had made to that point. This also happened to be when something else I have been tracking sent another technical signal.... Gold.
From a macro point of view, I think of gold and BTC as similar animals... Stores of value/inflation hedge/speculative assets. One nice thing about not being married to either is that you can keep an equal eye on both. So while BTC started it's big run late last summer, gold began a steady decline. In the chart below gold is in orange and BTC is in blue.
View attachment 20227
While from a 20,000 view you would assume and BTC and gold would have pretty strong correlation. What that chart tells me though is that during the last 9 months a chunk of money has left gold and gone into BTC. We know there wasn't any money leaving equities as the S&P set a new all time high on Friday... Up 30+% from last July.
So if money went from gold to BTC, I have to feel money from BTC can go to gold... Not from hodlrs or goldbugs though. From institutional investors and hedge funds that rely on fundamentals, macroeconomic factors, and technical analysis to make investment decisions. So with that said, the technical analysis today is looking really good for gold and not so much for BTC.
Starting in late January I started tracking what appears to be a cup and handle formation forming in gold markets. See graphic below for a little color on what a cup and handle looks like and how its formed.
View attachment 20228
What's unique about the gold cup and handle formation is the time frame... It's about a decade long from the one side of the cup to the handle. Here's a more normal cup and handle that I spotted and bought in Fed Ex a few months ago. It set up its cup in a few years and the handle in a few months. It's up 20% or so from my entry point near the bottom of the handle and if the formation plays out should continue up for several more months.
View attachment 20229
Now here is the gold cup and handle.. Similar pattern but over much longer timeframes. 10 years for the cup and 10 months for the handle.
View attachment 20230
This isn't the first cup and handle ever created by gold either. It set up a massive one from 1980 until 2009... When the Fed last went bonkers with money printing. You can see that the cup formed over 28 or so years and the handle for about 24 or so months.... Once the right side of the handle broke out above the left side, you had a nearly 100% gain in gold in about 2 years.
View attachment 20231
If this cup and handle plays out according to most cup and handles, including the last one in gold, the upside would be more in the 50% range. No where near BTC's recent gains, but $4-5 trillion in actual market value. So the question for me becomes, if a $4-5 trillion dollars gets added to the market value of gold... What asset class goes experiences a draw down? Do any? I honestly don't know. But I do see a long term trade with big upside.
Now on to BTC. Unlike gold, it is not showing a favorable technical pattern. While not doomsday yet, it does lean bearish as for the first time since the Covid crash last March, BTC his put in a lower low. It also looks like it may be putting in a lower high. Lower lows and lower highs are typically how a more sustained downtrend starts. Too early to call, but gun to head, it looks like BTC may be starting a downtrend... Technically speaking.
View attachment 20232
Just to show what lower lows often lead too.. Here's a look at TSLA. It's down about 30% since its ATH at the end of January. Made a nice bounce a few months back, but was rejected at the 61.8% fib retracement level. Likely headed back down around $540 now.
View attachment 20233
I'm not picking on TSLA, BTC, or anything else. My biggest position at the start of 2020 turned into a rocket ship and at one point was up 280%. Now its almost back where it started and down 54% since its ATH earlier this year. That's because most investors made huge profits and have started locking in those profits by selling the big winner. Good news is I sold about 70% of it along the way up and put that money to work in more diversified areas. I still have a nice position and believe in the long term future of the business. So I will hold it as a position in the portfolio and I am now actively adding back it these lower levels. I hope everyone else does the same with BTC, GME, TSLA, DOGE, or whatever winners you have... Gravity always wins. Use your parachute. Then get back on the plane and jump from a higher elevation.
So back to BTC and gold. Right now, gold has a more attractive setup. It had a big run up for a few years until August and since then there has been a lot of profit taking, but now it finally looks like buyers outnumber sellers again. Everyone is getting back on the plane with a freshly packed parachute. That's it. I imagine a lot of institutional investors are looking at taking profits on BTC and putting them to work elsewhere. It's normal behavior. Now what makes BTC so unique is that even in a distribution phase, buyers could suddenly outnumber sellers as it becomes more widely accepted.
My caveat to this is the technicals are setting up, but not locked in yet. The cup and handle pattern could fail on gold and BTC could break out of the slump by setting a new ATH next week. I will try to remain unemotional on the why.
Here are some numbers to watch on each for the next few weeks.
BTC $47,000 (Previous Low) and $64,895 (Previous High) If it sets a new low before a new high, it's not good. The opposite is better. It's not bad just to hang out in between for a while either. Crossing either number will trigger sell or buy orders.
Gold $1850 (200 Day Moving Average) $1960 (Earlier Resistance) and $2075 (Previous High). Gold closing above the 200 day is step 1 in heading up to the previous high. Another thing to watch out for down the road is the 50 day moving average crossing above the 200 day. This is called a golden cross and triggers heavy buying. Just looking at the chart, if the current trend continues, gold may create a golden cross right about the same time it breaks through the all time high. This would be very bullish.
For me there are 3 elements to investing in any asset.
1. The fundamentals -- IE the profitability of a company and projected future income.
2. The macroeconomic environment--IE the impact of current economic scenarios on a give asset.
3. The technicals--IE the buying and selling trends of a given asset.
So with BTC and gold, there are no fundamentals. So its really about the macro environment and technicals. I don't think much needs to be said about macro as everyone understands the sentiment of the entire market weighs on everything in some form or factor. The technicals though... They probably look like voodoo to a lot of people, but simply put it tracks the price action and tendencies of a given asset over a given period of time. Price action is a way to measure and predict the "speculation" of an asset. Because of the vast amount of data collected in the various markets over hundreds of years, it's technical analysis has become nearly as scientific of a form of predicting a stock or asset price as meteorology is at predicting the weather.
So I will start with my big BTC regret. I posted this in July and did not follow through on my own technical analysis. I missed the massive ride that BTC went on from end of July 2020 until Feb 2021...
View attachment 20226
I was too spooked by the risks and complications of not understanding how to properly use wallets and exchanges last summer to take any decent size position. I also looked into GBTC and did not like the fees, the structure of the trust, and investing in a 24/7 asset through a vehicle that operates M-F like a mutual fund. Seemed wrong to me (Since that time BTC is up 430% and GBTC is only up 260%... So I was right, yet stupid not to by GBTC.) It was my emotional beliefs and feelings overwhelming my technical analysis.
In late Feb I finally jumped into BTC based on technical analysis during a nice pull back and traded for about 6 weeks just using technical analysis on Coinbase and Coinbase Pro. I shared some of those trades on here and ended up making a little over a 50% return before I cashed out on April 16th after the Turkey news. I started feeling a little emotional about BTC and was happy with the returns I had made to that point. This also happened to be when something else I have been tracking sent another technical signal.... Gold.
From a macro point of view, I think of gold and BTC as similar animals... Stores of value/inflation hedge/speculative assets. One nice thing about not being married to either is that you can keep an equal eye on both. So while BTC started it's big run late last summer, gold began a steady decline. In the chart below gold is in orange and BTC is in blue.
View attachment 20227
While from a 20,000 view you would assume and BTC and gold would have pretty strong correlation. What that chart tells me though is that during the last 9 months a chunk of money has left gold and gone into BTC. We know there wasn't any money leaving equities as the S&P set a new all time high on Friday... Up 30+% from last July.
So if money went from gold to BTC, I have to feel money from BTC can go to gold... Not from hodlrs or goldbugs though. From institutional investors and hedge funds that rely on fundamentals, macroeconomic factors, and technical analysis to make investment decisions. So with that said, the technical analysis today is looking really good for gold and not so much for BTC.
Starting in late January I started tracking what appears to be a cup and handle formation forming in gold markets. See graphic below for a little color on what a cup and handle looks like and how its formed.
View attachment 20228
What's unique about the gold cup and handle formation is the time frame... It's about a decade long from the one side of the cup to the handle. Here's a more normal cup and handle that I spotted and bought in Fed Ex a few months ago. It set up its cup in a few years and the handle in a few months. It's up 20% or so from my entry point near the bottom of the handle and if the formation plays out should continue up for several more months.
View attachment 20229
Now here is the gold cup and handle.. Similar pattern but over much longer timeframes. 10 years for the cup and 10 months for the handle.
View attachment 20230
This isn't the first cup and handle ever created by gold either. It set up a massive one from 1980 until 2009... When the Fed last went bonkers with money printing. You can see that the cup formed over 28 or so years and the handle for about 24 or so months.... Once the right side of the handle broke out above the left side, you had a nearly 100% gain in gold in about 2 years.
View attachment 20231
If this cup and handle plays out according to most cup and handles, including the last one in gold, the upside would be more in the 50% range. No where near BTC's recent gains, but $4-5 trillion in actual market value. So the question for me becomes, if a $4-5 trillion dollars gets added to the market value of gold... What asset class goes experiences a draw down? Do any? I honestly don't know. But I do see a long term trade with big upside.
Now on to BTC. Unlike gold, it is not showing a favorable technical pattern. While not doomsday yet, it does lean bearish as for the first time since the Covid crash last March, BTC his put in a lower low. It also looks like it may be putting in a lower high. Lower lows and lower highs are typically how a more sustained downtrend starts. Too early to call, but gun to head, it looks like BTC may be starting a downtrend... Technically speaking.
View attachment 20232
Just to show what lower lows often lead too.. Here's a look at TSLA. It's down about 30% since its ATH at the end of January. Made a nice bounce a few months back, but was rejected at the 61.8% fib retracement level. Likely headed back down around $540 now.
View attachment 20233
I'm not picking on TSLA, BTC, or anything else. My biggest position at the start of 2020 turned into a rocket ship and at one point was up 280%. Now its almost back where it started and down 54% since its ATH earlier this year. That's because most investors made huge profits and have started locking in those profits by selling the big winner. Good news is I sold about 70% of it along the way up and put that money to work in more diversified areas. I still have a nice position and believe in the long term future of the business. So I will hold it as a position in the portfolio and I am now actively adding back it these lower levels. I hope everyone else does the same with BTC, GME, TSLA, DOGE, or whatever winners you have... Gravity always wins. Use your parachute. Then get back on the plane and jump from a higher elevation.
So back to BTC and gold. Right now, gold has a more attractive setup. It had a big run up for a few years until August and since then there has been a lot of profit taking, but now it finally looks like buyers outnumber sellers again. Everyone is getting back on the plane with a freshly packed parachute. That's it. I imagine a lot of institutional investors are looking at taking profits on BTC and putting them to work elsewhere. It's normal behavior. Now what makes BTC so unique is that even in a distribution phase, buyers could suddenly outnumber sellers as it becomes more widely accepted.
My caveat to this is the technicals are setting up, but not locked in yet. The cup and handle pattern could fail on gold and BTC could break out of the slump by setting a new ATH next week. I will try to remain unemotional on the why.
Here are some numbers to watch on each for the next few weeks.
BTC $47,000 (Previous Low) and $64,895 (Previous High) If it sets a new low before a new high, it's not good. The opposite is better. It's not bad just to hang out in between for a while either. Crossing either number will trigger sell or buy orders.
Gold $1850 (200 Day Moving Average) $1960 (Earlier Resistance) and $2075 (Previous High). Gold closing above the 200 day is step 1 in heading up to the previous high. Another thing to watch out for down the road is the 50 day moving average crossing above the 200 day. This is called a golden cross and triggers heavy buying. Just looking at the chart, if the current trend continues, gold may create a golden cross right about the same time it breaks through the all time high. This would be very bullish.
When people are greedy
Be cautious.
I’d like to buy some farm land and lease it for 4-5% roi. This whole crypto thing looks like GME on steroids. I wasn’t smart enough for that one either. I wish y’all the best.
Be cautious.
I’d like to buy some farm land and lease it for 4-5% roi. This whole crypto thing looks like GME on steroids. I wasn’t smart enough for that one either. I wish y’all the best.
I don’t use nexos or similar services. Yields are better “on chain” using eth or some of the other cheaper side chains. The downside is it requires more technical expertise and can be unforgiving if you make a mistake.
Regarding everyone buying SHIB: Vitalik Buterin, founder of ethereum, has ~50% of the total supply in his ethereum wallet. Apparently he was sent half the supply when the token was created as a joke. It would be hilarious if he decided to dump it all at once on the market causing the price to collapse (colloquially called a “rug pull” in defi). Since SHIB is an ethereum token, you can easily see in real-time who the top holders are. His wallet is labeled VB:
https://etherscan.io/token/0x95ad61b0a150d79219dcf64e1e6cc01f0b64c4ce#balances
If anyone wants a deep dive in the fundamental underpinnings of defi and ethereum and to understand recent ethereum interest, Arthur Hayes wrote a nice article comparing it to traditional financial institutions:
https://cryptohayes.medium.com/yes-i-read-the-whitepaper-59cfa2ea9c2c
Personally, I think some institutional buyers been “TWAP” buying ethereum recently as this recent rise in price has been largely driven by spot buyers rather than leverage. Curious to see if it pos up on the balance sheets of some companies in the coming weeks/months.
One thing I will just say about the fundamentals of BTC is now that chains are bridging BTC over it will have significant life in Defi. If you believe in the latter then BTC will be more than a store of value. Bridged BTC on MATIC e.g. can be traded in seconds for pennies, legitimizing its utility as a currency.