ESPN Matchup Predictor Math

[ZombieKissinger]

Good evening,

All you engineers can eat me alive if I messed this up, but since we were projected by Vegas to go 5-7 at the beginning of the season, I was curious about where ESPN's matchup predictor saw us finishing at this point. I assumed Tennessee State was a win, but I calculated it out otherwise. Here's where it's at as of now:

5-0 - 2.4%
4-1 - 15.3%
3-2 - 35.3%
2-3 - 34.8%
1-4 - 12.2%

So they're projecting us to finish 3-2, but it's right at the threshold of 2-3. That'd put us as 7-5 or 6-6. 5-7 is where Vegas had us, but I (sheepishly) put us at 8-4. I think 6-6 is fine for this season, and 7-5 is pretty good. I'd be disappointed with 5-7.

Sincerely,
Zombie Kissinger

 

[SLUdog]

The Memphis meltdown and the refs cost

us a shot at 8 wins. 7 is possible....6 is most likely.

 

[ZombieKissinger]

I thought we had a good chance to beat LSU too. Healthy Ruiz does that, and we’re looking at 8-9

 

[Ralph Cramden]

I had LSU as a win but A&M as a loss. Memphis a W too of course

 

[SLUdog]

Well, I thought we had a good chance to beat LSU

but didn't think we'd win at T-AM, so that sort of evens out for me. I thought we'd be 5-2 right now and if we don't blow a lead against Memphis with the refs' help, we'd be 5-2.

 

[ZombieKissinger]

I had NC State as a bit of an unknown. I had thought 1-2 or 2-1 on NC State, LSU, A&M with wins over La Tech, Memphis, and Vandy. Loss to Bama

 

[patdog]

Looks about right. I had us at 6-6 preseason and I've got us at 6-6 today. We're about where I thought we'd be, but I definitely didn't think we'd get here they way we have.

 

[The Peeper]

You're not supposed to dwell on the Memphis loss (or so I was told in another post Saturday). If you don't think about it, it didn't happen evidently or a least to those w/ their heads in the sand it didn't

 

[PirateDawg]

I really thought we would go 8-4 before the season began. I was counting LSU and Mempho as wins but A&M as a loss. I like our chances of getting to 7-5 going forward but with the improvement across the board of West teams I'll be happy with 6-6. Mempho really crapped the bed for us.

 

[MSUDC11]

I had us at 4-3 at this point, but had us losing to A&M and NC State and beating Memphis and LSU. Predicted us to go 8-4 and that's technically still in play, but our remaining opponents appear to be better than I expected. I do feel like we win at least one more conference game though.