ESPN(Draft express) first NBA mock

[Son_Of_Saul]

Some fans will downplay these questions, but they’re all legitimate. We’ve seen a bundle of fringe guys leave for the first sign of NBA daylight. Suddenly, that trend stops and we turn into UNC?

Also, @brianpoe , yes we’ve never lost freshmen to the 2nd round (which is a great point), but can you remember a UK team that didn’t feature at least one or two legit NBA lottery picks? Cal has always had them here. This is the first year where fringe NBA guys are forced to play the leading roles (outside of the ’13 team at Noel went down).

All historic trends can be tossed out the window with this group. Nothing is guaranteed.

I'll be shocked if UK loses 3 or less.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

I still think the Alpha Dog for next season will be Wiseman.

Well…


Lots of fans “thought” Barrett, Bamba, and Zion were coming. Lots of fans “thought” Trae Young and Quade Green weren’t that far apart as far as talent is concerned (at this time last year).


Reality and hopeful optimism haven’t necessarily navigated the same course recently.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

This is how I feel. I'm expecting a mass exodus too. If Skal can go, any of the guys you listed can certainly go.
I can't believe there are people on here that think we'll only lose 2 or 3, I'll believe it when I see it.

Yes, and the first round analysis is tenuous. Orton, Teague, Goodwin, and Skal all made the first round by a mere pick or two. Goodwin didn’t have a first round guarantee. Cal told all of these guys they weren’t ready. How their situations can highlight some sort of historic confidence is beyond me, being that they all ultimately ignored Cal’s advice. Poe’s point is based on inference, that we can trust players to follow Cal’s advice. History has shown that isn’t always the case.

Historically, we’ve always had a small handful of fringe NBA guys to keep track of. Now, we have 7 or 8 of them, and they’ve all come to Lexington following the music of the pied pipers NBA song in the mountain.

 

[weatherbird]

Whoever drafts Knox at 12 should lose their job. Nothing in his game that resembles a lottery pick. Upside, potential, whatever. I don't see it. 1st round? Maybe. borderline top 10 pick? That's why I hate the NBA.

Vanderbilt is going to wow some people when he gets the chance to combine. He's not coming back.

I'm still kind of feeling a max exodus, maybe it's just pessimism out of frustration and anger, like a 5 year old.

Vanderbilt - gone
Washington - gone
Richards - gone
Shai - gone
Knox - gone
Diallo - gone
Gabriel - gone

Someone look at that and tell me it 100% cannot happen? Remember Gabriel might have financial issues at home, Vanderbilt gets to showcase workouts, Richards is a 7 footer, Washington has "potential", Shai has long arms for his position, Diallo wants anything, Knox has touch on his bricks. And those reasons? Yep, totally good enough to the NBA and Cal.

Also, this is Kentucky. It could happen. I don't know why so many are just writing this off as impossible.

It has happened for 9 straight years so why should we suddenly expect it to change

all you have to do is listen to the kids. Quade why'd you pick Kentucky? Cal told me I was good enough to be one and done and I want to get to the NBA. Hami, what was the difference in UK and Duke's pitches? Duke said a lot of stuff Kentucky just pitched the NBA to me. Shai why'd you de-commit from Florida and pick Kentucky? I want to be a one and done and that's what Cal does.

Let's be honest here, Cal reaps what he sows in that capacity. When you don't sell the idea of coming to UK winning titles, getting better, belonging to the tradition that is UK basketball, etc... and you literally tell all these kids they are one and dones and not to come to UK if they don't think that about themselves then you're going to have kids with inflated egos who have no business leaving still leaving. It's been the same pattern for 8 years now. I am totally fine with it as long as half the players are the Wall, Cousins, Davis, Noel KAT, etc.... we just can't keep having these guys who can't produce their one year and leave. Think about watching them this year and thinking wow next we get all these guys back and we are adding a few great players and you're absolutely pumped and not fretting so much watching this year. But we've seen it too much.

Lamb, Harrison, Harrison, Liggins, Teague, Archie, Briscoe, Skal, Humphries, etc... I mean we have just seen waves of guys who 3-4 year guys go after 1-2 years when it made no sense. Those are all guys who could of gotten better. I get so tired of the idiots saying they are who they are. Are they? I can list off literally thousands of players who didn't play as freshmen or sophomores and were awesome their junior and senior years. Guys can develop and we need a few to start have a few of these guys doing it. Wenyen and SKJ coming back and hopefully being here next year is a good start.

I had to state this in another thread, and I'm not saying it won't happen, but if history shows anything, we won't have a mass exodus this year. Let's look at this:

2009-10, 35-3, Elite 8, 4 Fr and 1 Jr turn pro, 1 Jr transferred, 2 graduated
2010-11, 29-9, Final 4, 1 Fr and 1 Jr turn pro, 1 graduated
2011-12, 38-2, Champs, 3 Fr and 2 So turn pro, 2 graduated
2012-13, 21-12, NIT, 2 Fr turn pro, 2 So transferred, 2 graduated
2013-14, 29-11, Championship Game, 2 Fr turn pro
2014-15, 38-1, Final 4, 3 Fr, 3 So and 1 Jr turn pro
2015-16, 27-9, 2nd round, 2 Fr and 1 So turn pro, 1 Jr and 1 Fr transferred
2016-17, 32-5, Elite Eight, 3 Fr and 2 So turn pro, 3 graduated

So, in summary, 4 out of 8 years have seen 2 or less freshmen leave, with the most ever leaving being 4. The combined record of teams having 4 or more players turn pro is 143-11. Every team that has had 4 or more leave has made at least the elite 8, with 2 of those team making the final 4. Also, all 4 of those teams were either a 1 or 2 seed in the tournament. On average, teams which lost more than 5 games, have had roughly 2 players turn pro. This team has already lost 5 games, most expect us to be a 4 seed or lower, with a sweet sixteen ceiling. According to history, we should only expect 2-3 players to leave. I will say that if you go back and look, all those years where the season didn't go like we wanted, you will find 4-5 players being projected to go at this point in the respective seasons. And the above point is also correct, in that Cal has never had a freshman at UK leave that wasn't a first round draft pick. Not saying a mass exodus won't happen, but I wouldn't expect it at this point.

As a side note, I think fans are getting bitter about this a bit mainly due to the decisions and controversy surrounding Briscoe (leaving last year) and Diallo (looking like he didn't play to protect his stock), and to a lesser extent, Vanderbilt this year. However, those things were pretty abnormal for Cal's time here. Could that become the norm, maybe, but I'll need more evidence before I go down that path.

 

[GonzoCat90]

And those reasons? Yep, totally good enough to the NBA and Cal.

And Cal?

You know he tells kids the truth and some of them just don't listen. He basically told Hami to come back this year if no one would guarantee him a spot at 20 or before.

We got three years from WCS and four from Poythress when both could have been first round picks at certain points before that.

Briscoe listened once and then was gone no matter what feedback he was given.

Teague left when, by all accounts, Cal has made it pretty clear he told him to come back and wasn't expecting him to leave.


So yeah, we may have a ton of guys leave, but it isn't cause Cal is pushing them out the door. We have three guys committed for next year. You think he's telling everyone to leave and be late second rounders or expects them to go?

 

[GonzoCat90]

Well…


Lots of fans “thought” Barrett, Bamba, and Zion were coming. Lots of fans “thought” Trae Young and Quade Green weren’t that far apart as far as talent is concerned (at this time last year).


Reality and hopeful optimism haven’t necessarily navigated the same course recently.

Fans don't make those ideas up in their heads. Nearly everyone thought those things at certain points. Presenting them all together as if they were agreed upon collectively and simultaneously by UK fans and no one else is disingenuous.

 

[katwest]

This is how I feel. I'm expecting a mass exodus too. If Skal can go, any of the guys you listed can certainly go.
I can't believe there are people on here that think we'll only lose 2 or 3, I'll believe it when I see it.

It can happen, several of them also could be playing in the d league like Dakari for 3 years too, if he weren't 7 foot he might still be there. I would think a few would want to improve their stock and play another year of college ball at Kentucky. Terrance Jones came back had a great Sophomore year won a championship and went pro, I would say that's a great two years, winning a championship and getting drafted the next year.

 

[brianpoe]

Some fans will downplay these questions, but they’re all legitimate. We’ve seen a bundle of fringe guys leave for the first sign of NBA daylight. Suddenly, that trend stops and we turn into UNC?

Also, @brianpoe , yes we’ve never lost freshmen to the 2nd round (which is a great point), but can you remember a UK team that didn’t feature at least one or two legit NBA lottery picks? Cal has always had them here. This is the first year where fringe NBA guys are forced to play the leading roles (outside of the ’13 team at Noel went down).

All historic trends can be tossed out the window with this group. Nothing is guaranteed.

I'll be shocked if UK loses 3 or less.

Yes, and the first round analysis is tenuous. Orton, Teague, Goodwin, and Skal all made the first round by a mere pick or two. Goodwin didn’t have a first round guarantee. Cal told all of these guys they weren’t ready. How their situations can highlight some sort of historic confidence is beyond me, being that they all ultimately ignored Cal’s advice. Poe’s point is based on inference, that we can trust players to follow Cal’s advice. History has shown that isn’t always the case.

Historically, we’ve always had a small handful of fringe NBA guys to keep track of. Now, we have 7 or 8 of them, and they’ve all come to Lexington following the music of the pied pipers NBA song in the mountain.

You have not made one solid point as to why this historic trend can be tossed out the window except for this frightened emotion that has overcome the board lately trying to project things that have yet to occur.

Why do you think this trend has not changed before this year...?

Playing a leading role on an average team doesn't raise your draft stock, in many cases this year it is exposing several players.

I'll say that we have players with NBA potential that may not receive a guarantee this season and absolutely believe they can improve and get that guarantee next season or thereafter... see Diallo last year.

The guarantee issue hasn't changed.

We never have a ton of Freshmen leave except for 2010...

You propose that some sort of quota has been established and our kids must leave simply to meet that expectation?


Let's go in depth on the examples you provided:

Orton - left because of a hidden injury - who on our team has a bum knee we don't know about and is 7 foot tall with Orton's skill set and size?

Teague - which of our PG's was the consensus number one PG coming out of HS? Which will lead us to a title? Which can run the team and be a bulldog on offense and defense?

Goodwin - I would say that only Diallo compares to Archie athletically and as of today, I take Goodwin over Hamidou.

Skal - Which of our players was the HS consensus #1 recruit? Which 7 footer has the shooting skills of Skal?



So really only Archie can be utilized to make your point in my opinion and only one player really compares to this example.



Who may leave?

Knox - he's gone, he will be picked solidly in the 1st.

Diallo - gone, end of 1st round maybe.

Richards - wont be a 1st rounder but is old for a freshman - I think he stays as of today.

Shai - has been exposed as not a great PG, lack of instincts and ball control - has to show he can create his own shot outside of a drive to the basket.

PJ - 6'7 PF without a good shot and has shown more inconsistencies than qualities.

Vanderbilt - cant shoot, injuries.

Quade - no

Wenyen - go because of money but no one can prove this, kid has NBA potential and is a year or 2 away.

SKJ - transfer? why? who comes up with this nonsense?

Tai - goes home? So what?


They ALL might leave, but this panic is really odd. We were a last second shot and a screw job from another Final Four just a few months ago.

People need to stop being so scared of Duke's recruiting class. 2015 proved nothing is guaranteed.


I honestly believe that only Knox and Diallo can improve their draft stock and Richards might play his way close enough to leave.

The others have too much to correct by season's end.

 

[JonathanW_rivals]

It’s a joke, none of those 3 are ready! They should all come back.

Being "ready" is a silly concept. Most drafted players aren't "ready" to contribute to an NBA team.
You want to maximize your earning potential.
How much can they improve, can they raise their draft stock by returning? That is what is important.
Obviously improving in areas will raise their draft stock, but simply being a year older & giving teams more time to see your "warts" lowers your draft stock.

For Diallo, his shooting % isn't horrible (slightly better than a lot of us thought it would be). But if you watch him, most games you think "he can't shoot". Can he improve that significantly by coming back?

For Knox, he doesn't seem to know what he wants to be. And he's inconsistent. I expect NBA teams would tell you "here is what we are paying you to be/do, now go do/be it". Can he improve significantly?

SGA has had a rapid rise. He isn't super quick, isn't a great distributor, or a scoring PG. But he is just a nice complementary player in a lot of ways, not great at anything, but good at lots of things. His stock, if it stays in the 1st, may be as high as it ever will be.

Richards has the size & length you can't teach. But he's raw. So while I think he could be a late 1st round pick, I also think he's spend the next 3 years in the D-league. But by returning I think he could be a very good player next year, and forget lottery, be a top 10 pick. So the potential gain is pretty big for him to stay.

Vanderbilt just needs to show he can hit mid-range jumpers. But if he can get someone to take a chance on him in the 1st this year (unlikely) then he should probably take it.

Washington also needs to improve his outside game, since he is under sized for a PF.

 

[turkeywildturkey]

If that’s all we lose from this year then UK will be a serious title contender that could potentially beat the 14-15 and 11-12 teams.

Please. If everyone stayed they’d not be as good as either of those teams.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Found this little chart super intriguing:

http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-draft-pick-expectations

Granted, these are expectations based on past performance.. but pretty much when you get past the 20th pick, there's a 50% chance you're deep on the bench, or worse, not in the NBA. When you get into the early 2nd rounds, the odds of that multi-year multi-million dollar contract become slim.

So what point as a Freshman, do you say to yourself that another year in college is the smarter play than going to the NBA? I really think if any of our guys begin to hear that they're a 2nd round pick, they should come back.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Also, it seems to be premium content.. Are PJ and JV in the 2nd round? Not at all? And where is Gary Trent Jr? He was not on NBAdraft.net which tells me they aren't keeping up with players. There's no way Kentucky has 2, let alone 4 players with better NBA potential than him.

Regardless, absed on the above, I still think Kentucky only loses 2 or 3 guys. I think 4 is the max.. but that 4th guy, whoever it is, is probably going to be a 2nd round pick.

 

[GonzoCat90]

Found this little chart super intriguing:

http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-draft-pick-expectations

Granted, these are expectations based on past performance.. but pretty much when you get past the 20th pick, there's a 50% chance you're deep on the bench, or worse, not in the NBA. When you get into the early 2nd rounds, the odds of that multi-year multi-million dollar contract become slim.

So at point as a Freshman, do you say to yourself that another year in college is the smarter play than going to the NBA? I really think if any of our guys begin to hear that they're a 2nd round pick, they should come back.

Great chart, thanks for that.

I think the question also has to be asked by each guy about whether they can improve their stock. Tyler Ulis was fantastic but was never going to be a lottery pick. Certain guys are just limited or have a massive flaw that is going to make teams take a player with better gifts or more upside.

So a guy like Richards can improve his stock. A guy like Vanderbilt risks injury and never getting paid. A guy like Quade is probably always going to be viewed similarly by NBA scouts based on physical profile.

That factors into the choice as well.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Great chart, thanks for that.

I think the question also has to be asked by each guy about whether they can improve their stock. Tyler Ulis was fantastic but was never going to be a lottery pick. Certain guys are just limited or have a massive flaw that is going to make teams take a player with better gifts or more upside.

So a guy like Richards can improve his stock. A guy like Vanderbilt risks injury and never getting paid. A guy like Quade is probably always going to be viewed similarly by NBA scouts based on physical profile.

That factors into the choice as well.

Yup, good points. It is going to be different for each player. This Mock Draft seems more in line with what I was thinking, and probably what most of us were thinking: We have 1 or 2 mid-1st round picks, and after that, we start to trail off.

I've started to wonder, maybe only Knox and Diallo had NBA aspirations after one year.. Is it possible that guys like Richards, Green, PJ and maybe even JV (after his injury) already have it in their heads that this is not going to be a 1-year thing.

 

[Dablueman]

Do they always make this great improvement? Was that the case for SKJ and Wenyen, for instance?

You are suggesting that after we lose our top 3 scorers, who combine for about 40 ppg, and gain 3 freshmen - we're going to be "a serious title contender"?

Knox, Alexander, and Diallo are not only our top scorers, they're also our best players in transition and our top "dribble drive" guys. By that, I mean they can take their man off the dribble and create their own shots.

Meanwhile, a very mediocre Green returns (probably backing up Quickley), very pedestrian SKJ and Wenyen return, Richards returns (Oh boy!), Baker finally plays (and may not be able to play any defense and thus not see the court) and Washington and Vanderbilt come back.

I do like the freshmen coming in, but you're going to have the same defensive problems you have now, the same rebounding problems, the same basketball IQ with your returning players, the same limited offense production from your front court - it will still be a hot mess.

The only gain I can see is improved perimeter shooting. But that won't solve all the problems.

Yes it worked for Wenyan and SKJ. I mean really? SKJ has contributed 5 times as much as last season. Wenyan is a rebounding machine who. May be our most consistent 3 point shooter. Making plays like timely blocks offensive rebounds on ft.

The leap in improvement from fresh to soph year is a very well known fact about college ball. Sure there are guys like Poythress who didn't make a huge leap but most are like WCS and improve a good deal.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Yes it worked for Wenyan and SKJ. I mean really? SKJ has contributed 5 times as much as last season. Wenyan is a rebounding machine who. May be our most consistent 3 point shooter. Making plays like timely blocks offensive rebounds on ft.

The leap in improvement from fresh to soph year is a very well known fact about college ball. Sure there are guys like Poythress who didn't make a huge leap but most are like WCS and improve a good deal.

Not to mention leadership, growing into their bodies, etc. Upperclassmen that might not be great, but are steady.. is how you avoid early year upsets. Kentucky doesn't lose to Kansas this year if we had some of that leadership, we probably don't lose to UCLA either.

 

[gossie21_rivals69805]

60 players are drafted. I can’t believe that 7 of those are on our team.

You don't have to be drafted by the NBA to leave the team

- signed, Briscoe, Humphries, Marcus Lee, Charles Matthews, Aaron Harrison

 

[morgousky]

And Cal?

You know he tells kids the truth and some of them just don't listen. He basically told Hami to come back this year if no one would guarantee him a spot at 20 or before.

We got three years from WCS and four from Poythress when both could have been first round picks at certain points before that.

Briscoe listened once and then was gone no matter what feedback he was given.

Teague left when, by all accounts, Cal has made it pretty clear he told him to come back and wasn't expecting him to leave.


So yeah, we may have a ton of guys leave, but it isn't cause Cal is pushing them out the door. We have three guys committed for next year. You think he's telling everyone to leave and be late second rounders or expects them to go?

I was joking about Cal. I've never been one to think he does that.

 

[morgousky]

@brianpoe makes a good point that is usually missed in our crying, no player left for the second round.

Although, I do think a few were willing to go for the second round.

 

[armchairpg]

I had to state this in another thread, and I'm not saying it won't happen, but if history shows anything, we won't have a mass exodus this year. Let's look at this:

2009-10, 35-3, Elite 8, 4 Fr and 1 Jr turn pro, 1 Jr transferred, 2 graduated
2010-11, 29-9, Final 4, 1 Fr and 1 Jr turn pro, 1 graduated
2011-12, 38-2, Champs, 3 Fr and 2 So turn pro, 2 graduated
2012-13, 21-12, NIT, 2 Fr turn pro, 2 So transferred, 2 graduated
2013-14, 29-11, Championship Game, 2 Fr turn pro
2014-15, 38-1, Final 4, 3 Fr, 3 So and 1 Jr turn pro
2015-16, 27-9, 2nd round, 2 Fr and 1 So turn pro, 1 Jr and 1 Fr transferred
2016-17, 32-5, Elite Eight, 3 Fr and 2 So turn pro, 3 graduated

So, in summary, 4 out of 8 years have seen 2 or less freshmen leave, with the most ever leaving being 4. The combined record of teams having 4 or more players turn pro is 143-11. Every team that has had 4 or more leave has made at least the elite 8, with 2 of those team making the final 4. Also, all 4 of those teams were either a 1 or 2 seed in the tournament. On average, teams which lost more than 5 games, have had roughly 2 players turn pro. This team has already lost 5 games, most expect us to be a 4 seed or lower, with a sweet sixteen ceiling. According to history, we should only expect 2-3 players to leave. I will say that if you go back and look, all those years where the season didn't go like we wanted, you will find 4-5 players being projected to go at this point in the respective seasons. And the above point is also correct, in that Cal has never had a freshman at UK leave that wasn't a first round draft pick. Not saying a mass exodus won't happen, but I wouldn't expect it at this point.

As a side note, I think fans are getting bitter about this a bit mainly due to the decisions and controversy surrounding Briscoe (leaving last year) and Diallo (looking like he didn't play to protect his stock), and to a lesser extent, Vanderbilt this year. However, those things were pretty abnormal for Cal's time here. Could that become the norm, maybe, but I'll need more evidence before I go down that path.

Excellent breakdown. I feel better after reading this.

 

[Wildcats1st]

I’ll play devils advocate.

1st off for the whiny sissies, we have NEVER lost a freshman to the draft that wasn’t a 1st Rounder.

Giovany already stated that Vanderbilt was NOT a first rounder BEFORE he was injured.

Kid can’t shoot and has injury history. No lower body strength to play inside and drop the PG BS, he can’t make a FT much less a 3.

Shai will drop, he has proven he cannot run the team without Green. He’s a tweener without natural PG skills and the only jumpers he takes are open set shots, thus not the greatest 2G either.

Who will spend a 1st Rounder on a 6’7 PF that has proven to be a liability as much as a positive? No way Washington goes.

Gabriel lived in the states prior to coming to UK why everyone thinks the guy came from the African bush is beyond me. He actually has NBA potential in the future why would he blow it for overseas money?

Richards isn’t a 1st Rounder but his age may push him to go.


But if history holds true the only freshmen leaving would be Knox and Diallo as of today.

I would not draft either.


So if you think a freshman leaves without a 1st Round guarantee you are pulling it out of your butt. This may be the year someone goes without one but it hasn’t happened yet.

This will be the year cal loses a freshman to second rd or undrafted.

 

[brianpoe]

This will be the year cal loses a freshman to second rd or undrafted.

I could see Richards doing it.

 

[ganner918_rivals60369]

It has happened for 9 straight years so why should we suddenly expect it to change

What's happened every year? We've never had a freshman go pro who wasn't a first round pick. You saying we have 6 first round picks? Or that multiple players are going to do what nobody here has done?

 

[caneintally]

If I am guessing I bet Shai goes 6-10 , KNox 8-14 , diallo 20-30 and Gabriel goes undrafted. If JV also leaves who knows. If he plays like himself by March he is a top 15 pick . If he doesn't he is a later first , early 2nd round pick.

 

[brianpoe]

If I am guessing I bet Shai goes 6-10 , KNox 8-14 , diallo 20-30 and Gabriel goes undrafted. If JV also leaves who knows. If he plays like himself by March he is a top 15 pick . If he doesn't he is a later first , early 2nd round pick.

SGA is not a top 10 player.

What position do you think he will play?

 

[Wolves198921]

It’s depressing...

Talking about losing a bunch of guys from a team that may be in the NIT

 

[deuces r wild_rivals39030]

I think the possiblity of Knox staying for his 2nd year is not as remote as it seems. He is only a couple months removed from his 18th birthday. That means he will only be 18 when the draft rolls around. I know the NBA drafts on potential, but a 19 year old Knox is much more appealing to the NBA. In addition he doesn't have anyone behind him that will push him out the door.

 

[brianpoe]

It’s depressing...

Talking about losing a bunch of guys from a team that may be in the NIT

Keep on trollin trollin trollin....

 

[Rupp'sRunt]

Keep on trollin trollin trollin....

Nothing says UK fan like the user name Wolves198921

 

[UK_fan_41102]

60 players are drafted. I can’t believe that 7 of those are on our team.

Did you see players like Briscoe and Humphries leaving?

 

[GonzoCat90]

If I am guessing I bet Shai goes 6-10 , KNox 8-14 , diallo 20-30 and Gabriel goes undrafted. If JV also leaves who knows. If he plays like himself by March he is a top 15 pick . If he doesn't he is a later first , early 2nd round pick.

This draft has Bagley, Ayton, Porter, Bamba, Jaren Jackson, Wendell Carter, Robert Williams and Miles Bridges as front court players.

To go top six he'd have to be the best guard in the draft. He isn't better than Doncic, Sexton or Young, and he's also not better than Troy Brown and doesn't have the upside of Mikal Bridges.

He's a good player. He's intriguing. He's shown flashes of being really good. But he's an average athlete, an average shooter, and really raw as a playmaker. You don't take guys like that in the lottery and keep your job.

I actually think his stock stands to fall a bit as teams continue to figure him out, and I think he probably spent most of his life seeing the NBA as a possibility but not a guarantee after one season in college. Kids like that are more likely to come back.

 

[GonzoCat90]

Did you see players like Briscoe and Humphries leaving?

I mostly expected Briscoe to leave after year one. Humphries had the choice of going back home AND playing professionally or staying in Lexington to get buried behind Mo Bamba and Nick Richards at the time of his choice.

 

[UK_fan_41102]

I mostly expected Briscoe to leave after year one. Humphries had the choice of going back home AND playing professionally or staying in Lexington to get buried behind Mo Bamba and Nick Richards at the time of his choice.

People say we're not losing 7 players, but fail to consider situations like the aforementioned happening.

 

[bucsrule8872]

We could lose more than 5, but Cal is not expecting to.

He has said he expects to sign one, maybe two more.

He loses seven and only brings in four or five and we are very short handed. That's eight or nine scholarship players. That's a recipe for disaster.

It's Cal's job to know how many guys he has to replace.

I think he has been surprised by only a few players leaving. I think Matthews was the rare player that he expected back and left. The others he knew that there was a very good possibility that they would leave.

He knew we were losing at least 8 last season, which is why he said he would sign 8-9 even before the season started.

So if we lose more than 5, I think it will be a shock to Cal.

I mean, this guy talks to these kids on a daily basis and he has to know who is seriously contemplating leaving in order to recruit for the next season.

It's a guessing game for us, but it's his job to actually know.

My point is this: if Cal is only planning to sign 4-5 in this class, then it stands to reason he only expects to lose 4-5. I can't see him losing more than he signs. We only have 11 on scholarship this season. Having less than that is a very risky move.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

You have not made one solid point as to why this historic trend can be tossed out the window except for this frightened emotion that has overcome the board lately trying to project things that have yet to occur.

Why do you think this trend has not changed before this year...?

Playing a leading role on an average team doesn't raise your draft stock, in many cases this year it is exposing several players.

I'll say that we have players with NBA potential that may not receive a guarantee this season and absolutely believe they can improve and get that guarantee next season or thereafter... see Diallo last year.

The guarantee issue hasn't changed.

We never have a ton of Freshmen leave except for 2010...

You propose that some sort of quota has been established and our kids must leave simply to meet that expectation?


Let's go in depth on the examples you provided:

Orton - left because of a hidden injury - who on our team has a bum knee we don't know about and is 7 foot tall with Orton's skill set and size?

Teague - which of our PG's was the consensus number one PG coming out of HS? Which will lead us to a title? Which can run the team and be a bulldog on offense and defense?

Goodwin - I would say that only Diallo compares to Archie athletically and as of today, I take Goodwin over Hamidou.

Skal - Which of our players was the HS consensus #1 recruit? Which 7 footer has the shooting skills of Skal?



So really only Archie can be utilized to make your point in my opinion and only one player really compares to this example.



Who may leave?

Knox - he's gone, he will be picked solidly in the 1st.

Diallo - gone, end of 1st round maybe.

Richards - wont be a 1st rounder but is old for a freshman - I think he stays as of today.

Shai - has been exposed as not a great PG, lack of instincts and ball control - has to show he can create his own shot outside of a drive to the basket.

PJ - 6'7 PF without a good shot and has shown more inconsistencies than qualities.

Vanderbilt - cant shoot, injuries.

Quade - no

Wenyen - go because of money but no one can prove this, kid has NBA potential and is a year or 2 away.

SKJ - transfer? why? who comes up with this nonsense?

Tai - goes home? So what?


They ALL might leave, but this panic is really odd. We were a last second shot and a screw job from another Final Four just a few months ago.

People need to stop being so scared of Duke's recruiting class. 2015 proved nothing is guaranteed.


I honestly believe that only Knox and Diallo can improve their draft stock and Richards might play his way close enough to leave.

The others have too much to correct by season's end.

You make some good points.

Perhaps we should analyze it from a different vantage point.


UK has never had so many freshmen on one team, save the 2014 team (which had 8). This group also has eight, but unlike the 2014, which had four freshmen who trended towards mock drafts at this point in the 2014 season (twins, Randle, Young); the 2018 group has SGA, Richard, Vanderbilt, Washington, Diallo, and Knox.

Unlike the Randle group, this group doesn’t even have a lottery lock. Outside of Knox, every one of the rest of those guys I mentioned is a fringe first round pick. So, historically, you can claim that Cal’s never lost a freshman to the second round, but your implication is based on Cal’s freshmen being wise enough to listen to him and stay out of the draft if they’re not ready. We’ve seen that a handful of them (including the ones I already mentioned) have ignored that advice and made the jump anyway. Even some sophomores, like Briscoe and Aaron Harrison, have made the jump with the weakest of assurances from NBA personnel.

Thus, I’m not sure what else you could be implying to make a case that we shouldn’t at least be skeptical (a far cry from the “frightened emotion” and "panic" you superimposed on my posts) because of the historical trend. Are you claiming that these guys will make the wise choice? If we lump sophomores and freshmen together (which is reasonable, considering your premise is based on kids making a wise choice and returning if they don’t have guarantees) can we claim that was the case for guys like Briscoe, Teague, Goodwin, Humphries, etc.? Cal has publically claimed that at least four players ignored his advice.


So, while you’re right to point to the historical trend, I’m not sure that we can rest comfortably upon that trend either (hence the discussion). Each one of these kids is here because they want to make the NBA. That’s what has been sold to them, and that is what they and their families have bought into. Remaining skeptical, which I am, is perfectly reasonable, considering every one of these kids has been eyeing the NBA for years now, that fact only amplified the moment Kentucky comes calling. We’re discussing possibilities, and you make some great points with possibilities, because this is a message board.

Essentially, we haven’t seen a group of freshmen like this since Cal has been here, one with so many fringe NBA guys who are in obvious need of development. How will that play out? History is absent of an answer there, hence the speculation. My major point here is merely based on the fact that kids aren’t coming here for the scenery. They want to make the NBA as fast as possible.

Can we follow their desire for the NBA as a reasonable way to project what will happen this summer? Absolutely. Sitting around remaining mum at this point would be ridiculous for a message board. There’s more shifting narrative available right now than at any point of the Calipari administration (save the spring/summer of 2009 when he first arrived and the summer of 2014 when most of the team returned).


Lastly, if and when guys like Vanderbilt and Richards leave this summer, what would your response be in such a case? For months now, some of our fans have been telling other fans to stay calm, because we haven’t seen Barrett make a decision (after Reddish), and then when Barrett decided, to stay calm because we haven’t seen Zion make a decision. Now the narrative has shifted again. Stay calm, because we’ll likely get all these pieces back.


So what happens if there’s a mass exodus? What becomes of the narrative? Do we simply fall back on “Well, at least we’ve won all these games?” I mean, I’m seeking to discuss ways to improve the program. I’m not falling on any sword here. There is a balance.


There’s no one out there I would swap out for Calipari, but I’m also not keen on “well, we should just sit on our hands because UK has been so good under him.” If there’s ways to improve the program (even in our limited perspective), discussion should be welcomed. That’s not “panic.” That’s discourse.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

And Cal?

You know he tells kids the truth and some of them just don't listen. He basically told Hami to come back this year if no one would guarantee him a spot at 20 or before.

We got three years from WCS and four from Poythress when both could have been first round picks at certain points before that.

Briscoe listened once and then was gone no matter what feedback he was given.

Teague left when, by all accounts, Cal has made it pretty clear he told him to come back and wasn't expecting him to leave.


So yeah, we may have a ton of guys leave, but it isn't cause Cal is pushing them out the door. We have three guys committed for next year. You think he's telling everyone to leave and be late second rounders or expects them to go?

Cal’s not telling fringe guys to go.


I’m hoping his narrative is shifting. Right now, when a kid like Briscoe hears “UK”, he thinks OAD. When Cal comes calling, he’s still thinking OAD (and so does his family). When Cal sits down in his living room, he hears you have the potentially for OAD. Thus, when he suits up for Cal, regardless of Cal says at that point, such a kid is leaving by year two at the latest (Lamb, twins, Briscoe, Johnson).


That’s the problem. UK is seen at the OAD school, so that even guys like Matthews become delusional while being courted by UK. When it doesn’t work out (Humphries, Lee, Matthews, Poole, Wiltjer), some of these role player types bolt.


Perhaps the key for Kentucky going forward will be to identify fringe guys who don’t mind staying a few years longer than some of their freshmen peers?

 

[Rupp'sRunt]

You make some good points.

Perhaps we should analyze it from a different vantage point.


UK has never had so many freshmen on one team, save the 2014 team (which had 8). This group also has eight, but unlike the 2014, which had four freshmen who trended towards mock drafts at this point in the 2014 season (twins, Randle, Young); the 2018 group has SGA, Richard, Vanderbilt, Washington, Diallo, and Knox.

Unlike the Randle group, this group doesn’t even have a lottery lock. Outside of Knox, every one of the rest of those guys I mentioned is a fringe first round pick. So, historically, you can claim that Cal’s never lost a freshman to the second round, but your implication is based on Cal’s freshmen being wise enough to listen to him and stay out of the draft if they’re not ready. We’ve seen that a handful of them (including the ones I already mentioned) have ignored that advice and made the jump anyway. Even some sophomores, like Briscoe and Aaron Harrison, have made the jump with the weakest of assurances from NBA personnel.

Thus, I’m not sure what else you could be implying to make a case that we shouldn’t at least be skeptical (a far cry from the “frightened emotion” and "panic" you superimposed on my posts) because of the historical trend. Are you claiming that these guys will make the wise choice? If we lump sophomores and freshmen together (which is reasonable, considering your premise is based on kids making a wise choice and returning if they don’t have guarantees) can we claim that was the case for guys like Briscoe, Teague, Goodwin, Humphries, etc.? Cal has publically claimed that at least four players ignored his advice.


So, while you’re right to point to the historical trend, I’m not sure that we can rest comfortably upon that trend either (hence the discussion). Each one of these kids is here because they want to make the NBA. That’s what has been sold to them, and that is what they and their families have bought into. Remaining skeptical, which I am, is perfectly reasonable, considering every one of these kids has been eyeing the NBA for years now, that fact only amplified the moment Kentucky comes calling. We’re discussing possibilities, and you make some great points with possibilities, because this is a message board.

Essentially, we haven’t seen a group of freshmen like this since Cal has been here, one with so many fringe NBA guys who are in obvious need of development. How will that play out? History is absent of an answer there, hence the speculation. My major point here is merely based on the fact that kids aren’t coming here for the scenery. They want to make the NBA as fast as possible.

Can we follow their desire for the NBA as a reasonable way to project what will happen this summer? Absolutely. Sitting around remaining mum at this point would be ridiculous for a message board. There’s more shifting narrative available right now than at any point of the Calipari administration (save the spring/summer of 2009 when he first arrived and the summer of 2014 when most of the team returned).


Lastly, if and when guys like Vanderbilt and Richards leave this summer, what would your response be in such a case? For months now, some of our fans have been telling other fans to stay calm, because we haven’t seen Barrett make a decision (after Reddish), and then when Barrett decided, to stay calm because we haven’t seen Zion make a decision. Now the narrative has shifted again. Stay calm, because we’ll likely get all these pieces back.


So what happens if there’s a mass exodus? What becomes of the narrative? Do we simply fall back on “Well, at least we’ve won all these games?” I mean, I’m seeking to discuss ways to improve the program. I’m not falling on any sword here. There is a balance.


There’s no one out there I would swap out for Calipari, but I’m also not keen on “well, we should just sit on our hands because UK has been so good under him.” If there’s ways to improve the program (even in our limited perspective), discussion should be welcomed. That’s not “panic.” That’s discourse.

Well thought out rebuttal. You make good points as well. Comes down to no one knows what these kids will do. Lose only Diallo and Knox to the draft were set up to be great next year, on the opposite end of the spectrum if we have the mass exodus we're set up to crash and burn. I'll hang up and listen

 

[qwesley]

Probably some of the negative predictions come from this group not seeming to be having much fun and seeming to have more outside influences. We will see. I agree with those saying he needs to diversify his pitch a bit and also do a better job of targeting depth players. I have always thought he should target elite PGs and post guys and multi-year wings.

 

[Rupp'sRunt]

Probably some of the negative predictions come from this group not seeming to be having much fun and seeming to have more outside influences. We will see. I agree with those saying he needs to diversify his pitch a but and also do a better job of targeting depth players. I have always thought he should target elite PGs and post guys and multi-year wings.

We had one named Charles Matthews. Nobody wants to be the Multi year guy at UK sadly

 

[qwesley]

We had one named Charles Matthews. Nobody wants to be the Multi year guy at UK sadly

The key is he was a myopic kid and Cal may have needed to do a better job of laying out his vision for him. Also, I would not recruit SGs that can't shoot.