Basketball ESPN BPI projects RHoops last five games
- Thread starter Richie O
- Start date
BPI is projecting only a win vs Michigan. That would probably require Rutgers to win at least 1 B10 tourney game to make the dance. One of the BTN studio guys said you are not a lock until you can lose all the rest of your games and make the tourney. MD and possibly PSU are the only B10 teams in that scenario now.
GAME LIKELIHOOD CHANGE SINCE ILLINOIS WIN
FEB. 19th: vs. Michigan
59.2%
-1.1%
FEB. 23rd: @ Wisconsin
28.3%
+0.3%
FEB. 26th: @ Penn State
24.8%
+0.9%
MAR 3rd: vs. Maryland
46.2%
-0.3%
MAR 7th: @ Purdue
23.3%
+3%
GAME LIKELIHOOD CHANGE SINCE ILLINOIS WIN
FEB. 19th: vs. Michigan
59.2%
-1.1%
FEB. 23rd: @ Wisconsin
28.3%
+0.3%
FEB. 26th: @ Penn State
24.8%
+0.9%
MAR 3rd: vs. Maryland
46.2%
-0.3%
MAR 7th: @ Purdue
23.3%
+3%
This underscores the importance of winning on Wednesday. If we win, we're in fairly decent shape. If we lose, we're in a real bind.
That said, I'm not sure 60% is accurate. Michigan is RED HOT right now. I guess Livers is day to day so him not playing would help. Of course then we have to hope Johns doesn't rise to the occasion like he did the last time we saw them. It will be quite a contest.
That said, I'm not sure 60% is accurate. Michigan is RED HOT right now. I guess Livers is day to day so him not playing would help. Of course then we have to hope Johns doesn't rise to the occasion like he did the last time we saw them. It will be quite a contest.
Per ESPN BPI, Rutgers has the hardest remaining schedule of any team in the nation. Likewise the Big Ten has 8 of the top 11 toughest remaining schedules.
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/projections/sort/sosremrank/dir/asc
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/projections/sort/sosremrank/dir/asc
Thanks for the link. Man, I didn't realize UNC was now 10-15. If I would have told you in November out of UNC and Rutgers, one of them wasn't going to the NCAA Tournament...
the key would be for RU to make a run on the B10 tourney. Win 2 in the tourney and we will be in a good place.
Kind of depends on seeding though. If a top 4 seed we will not have many easy games as 1 win puts us against a possible MD or PSU in the semifinal round. If a 6 seed we get the 14/11 winner and then play the 3rd seed. If we get the 5 seed we get the 13/12 winner and then play the 4 seed.
Kind of depends on seeding though. If a top 4 seed we will not have many easy games as 1 win puts us against a possible MD or PSU in the semifinal round. If a 6 seed we get the 14/11 winner and then play the 3rd seed. If we get the 5 seed we get the 13/12 winner and then play the 4 seed.
So according to that we should win 1.7 games out of the remaining 5. If we go 1-4 we underperformed, if we go 2-3 we slightly overperformed.
If we are a top 4 team, that means we’ve won at least 3 of the final five games and should be a lock. We’d only need two tournament wins if we go 1-4 the rest of the way.
First of all, we have already over performed all season! Our lack of closing out more wins on the road are misleading in that we were right there at the end and lost a ton of close ones. This team's performance is still a bit much for the talking heads to digest. With just 5 remaining regular season games, they are still waiting for us to collapse.
The ridiculous imbalance of home/road wins has people thinking that it will continue on its course. Statistically, we are much more likely to finally lose a home game than another road one.
I see at least two wins out the five with one at home and one on the road. Take your pick.
The ridiculous imbalance of home/road wins has people thinking that it will continue on its course. Statistically, we are much more likely to finally lose a home game than another road one.
I see at least two wins out the five with one at home and one on the road. Take your pick.
Those numbers don't really mean anything. Statistics can't quantify desire, determination, or predict someone will go 5-5 from 3. What were the odds we'd beat Illinois by 15? 1 in 25? What were the odds we'd beat SHU by 20? 1 in 100?
There's just no way to apply statistics accurately to something that is at the complete mercy of 17-18 kids and thousands of random chance occurrances. Totally unlike flipping a coin a thousand times where you know the only possible outcome is one of 2 things.
There's just no way to apply statistics accurately to something that is at the complete mercy of 17-18 kids and thousands of random chance occurrances. Totally unlike flipping a coin a thousand times where you know the only possible outcome is one of 2 things.
BPI is projecting an outright win over Michigan, then about a 23-46% chance of a win over each of the next 4 games... which means that getting a second win would also be in line with their projection.
I think so too. This team has to overcome the psychological barrier of beating a good squad on the road at some point. I think Wisconsin might be our best shot. If we win Wednesday (got my concerns about that game), and have a breakthrough to win at Wisky, anything is possible from there.
The degree of difficulty of the remaining games should mitigate some of the impression that we might be in a late season tailspin. There is no denying we have had a solid season and are capable of big things when we shoot the ball decently. Our TV numbers will be outstanding when we play in the Big Dance.
19 wins is not getting us in when one of our wins was vs. Caldwell, our OOC schedule was garbage and our only road win was vs. Nebraska.