We're definitely only bringing in two guys who MIGHT be better at his position than Gary. Unless you think Tre or Zion are shooting guards. I also don't think AOC would automatically transfer. For one, he knew what the roster has looked like for us in recent seasons so he knew what he was signing up for. We're also probably going back to a perimeter oriented team next season which will probably give him a shot at more PT even though our perimeter is deeper.
Trent is a Wing player in college. Increasingly, the lines between SF and SG have blurred. Both positions require incredibly similar skillsets. Both Cam and RJ have wing player skills and attributes. Both are taller and longer than Trent, and both are more athletic. Theoretically, Trent was a better shooter, but we didn't really see that manifest itself in key moments this year. In the McD's game, RJ took over down the stretch, and Cam made a huge three late.
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CR and RJ are at least as good at every wing thing as is Gary, in addition to being bigger and more athletic. Maybe Trent is a better shooter, but not enough to offset the other things RJ and CR can do.
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As for AOC, he didn't know how stacked we'd be at his position. When he committed, we either had, or were essentially certain to get, Trent. With CR being not far behind. Trent was projected as a OAD. But that is never certain. Regardless, AOC knew he'd be the first non-big off the bench for Duke last year, and projected a larger role next year. Ideally, AOC thought he'd be the starting SG with TreJ and Cam Reddish. Because when AOC committed, RJ was still in the class of 19, not 18. He was still thought to be a near lock to UK. Instead, AOC is now faced with an incredibly altered reality wherein RJ is in the class of 18, and is going to Duke.
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Which, from AOC's POV, whatever. AOC knew, when he committed, that there was at least a decent chance that Trent would return to Duke for GT's soph year, and that GT and CR would start, with AOC off the bench, as again, the first guard off the bench. Given that CR would spend some time as the nominal backup to TreJ, this was workable. AOC knew this was a possibility. The addition of RJ doesn't really impact that thinking. Provided that GT leaves, RJ simply takes that place. Given that RJ and CR can play some PF, AOC still sees plenty of PT being available. And that AOC would start and star the NEXT year (19-20). But if GT is back, Duke's rotation on the wing is set. We'd have two guys that would each see 25 MPG solely on the wing (likely more in RJ's case, with CR getting some burn at PF and PG). RJ would likely push 35 mpg solely on the wing. Well that would leave 15-20 MPG on the wing, and I feel like soph Trent would get many of those minutes.
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If GT returns, AOC might play less this upcoming year than the previous year. Given that, he could very well decide that an entire years spent as a transfer could be well used to work on his body and get it up to 210 ish for the start of the 19-20 season. He'd be a star, somewhere (don't think Nova wouldn't sniff around if he transferred) if that happened. I think AOC will be a POY candidate in 2 years, and I'd just as soon that be at Duke. Further, AOC will know and accept the logical pecking order next year. I'm afraid a soph GT will think HE should be a lead option. And that is just catastrophically wrong thinking on any team that has both CR and RJ.