Duke vs Wisconsin
- Thread starter Dukesince90
- Start date
I honestly feel exactly the same as I did prior to the Michigan State game.
Cautiously optimistic for the same reasons.
Yet again I think we're equal to better than Wisky at every position other than SF.
I gave Valentine the edge over Jones and I give Dekker that same advantage.
From there, I like Duke.
I know Kentucky fans likely felt the same way, unfortunately for them though they don't have K. They have a guy in Cal who, like Bobby Knight said of the Fab 5, can get so little out of so much. I'd love to see a Bizarro world where K gets that much talent. #1, he wouldn't go 5 in 5 out trying to appease everyone, #2 Towns would get a touch every time down the court and #3 that team wouldn't lose to Wisconsin with K at the helm, I guarantee that.
The biggest difference will be Kaminsky, MSU had no potent post scorer. Yet, I think we take advantage of switching D again, and make Frank uncomfortable with guards switching onto him with less fear of blow by ability of the Wisconsin guards when Okafor matches up with one. Also, teams like Wisconsin that run such an efficient offense with their flow, get that flow ruined when they see mismatches and stop the flow to try to then take advantage of say a Kaminsky-Cook matchup.
Wisky doesn't have a great defense, I think they're still in the 50's or 60's on KenPom. They matchup really well then against Kentucky and Arizona. Both teams who are built on defense and that aren't as good scoring. I know Kentucky had a high rating this year, but I think that's a skewed statistic due to their schedule of bad SEC teams. Wisconsin's biggest scare this tournament came against a solid offensive team in UNC. Duke's defense is so much better than UNC's at this point in the year, and our offense is as well, I think that is why the matchup is so much better for us.
Yet, Bo is a great coach. Kaminsky a great player. And Dekker is on fire which he wasn't when we first played them. I hope the fact I have the same feeling as I did with Michigan State means that we win by 20 again, but I can't allow myself to think that with those guys on the other side, just like I didn't allow myself to think it with Izzo on the other sideline.
One for the thumb! Let's get it! Go Duke!
Cautiously optimistic for the same reasons.
Yet again I think we're equal to better than Wisky at every position other than SF.
I gave Valentine the edge over Jones and I give Dekker that same advantage.
From there, I like Duke.
I know Kentucky fans likely felt the same way, unfortunately for them though they don't have K. They have a guy in Cal who, like Bobby Knight said of the Fab 5, can get so little out of so much. I'd love to see a Bizarro world where K gets that much talent. #1, he wouldn't go 5 in 5 out trying to appease everyone, #2 Towns would get a touch every time down the court and #3 that team wouldn't lose to Wisconsin with K at the helm, I guarantee that.
The biggest difference will be Kaminsky, MSU had no potent post scorer. Yet, I think we take advantage of switching D again, and make Frank uncomfortable with guards switching onto him with less fear of blow by ability of the Wisconsin guards when Okafor matches up with one. Also, teams like Wisconsin that run such an efficient offense with their flow, get that flow ruined when they see mismatches and stop the flow to try to then take advantage of say a Kaminsky-Cook matchup.
Wisky doesn't have a great defense, I think they're still in the 50's or 60's on KenPom. They matchup really well then against Kentucky and Arizona. Both teams who are built on defense and that aren't as good scoring. I know Kentucky had a high rating this year, but I think that's a skewed statistic due to their schedule of bad SEC teams. Wisconsin's biggest scare this tournament came against a solid offensive team in UNC. Duke's defense is so much better than UNC's at this point in the year, and our offense is as well, I think that is why the matchup is so much better for us.
Yet, Bo is a great coach. Kaminsky a great player. And Dekker is on fire which he wasn't when we first played them. I hope the fact I have the same feeling as I did with Michigan State means that we win by 20 again, but I can't allow myself to think that with those guys on the other side, just like I didn't allow myself to think it with Izzo on the other sideline.
One for the thumb! Let's get it! Go Duke!
Before Wisconsin's game against Kentucky...their defensive efficiency was 55.
That just happens to be the exact number Duke was sitting at before the tournament started...when people pointed out that no one with an efficiency that low on defense had ever won the title...
That just happens to be the exact number Duke was sitting at before the tournament started...when people pointed out that no one with an efficiency that low on defense had ever won the title...
I think it will be a tough game and if we lose - we still had a great run and K did a superb job of coaching in the tournament. And, Wisconsin, as much as I will hate them for 40 minutes tonight, is a team and coach I can respect. It won't bother me anything at all like possibly losing to UK would have.
Stepping back, I'd favor Wisconsin slightly. Veterans playing great and on a mission who, I believe, have a better shot at playing their best game versus Duke playing their best game because of the veteran presence.
I think coach K will do well to keep his players in it and if he can keep them confident and play to their max talent, Duke wins.
Will be a tough game to win, imo. You never know how kids will come out in an NCAA title game (esp. 3 freshmen). If they play relaxed and aggressive, it will go well. If nervous - it could be tough.
Stepping back, I'd favor Wisconsin slightly. Veterans playing great and on a mission who, I believe, have a better shot at playing their best game versus Duke playing their best game because of the veteran presence.
I think coach K will do well to keep his players in it and if he can keep them confident and play to their max talent, Duke wins.
Will be a tough game to win, imo. You never know how kids will come out in an NCAA title game (esp. 3 freshmen). If they play relaxed and aggressive, it will go well. If nervous - it could be tough.
The one variable about tonight's game was Sheed's attitude to score. We're a much better team chemistry wise, but there must be mis-match factor. I'm depending on Allen and Matt to take up the slack. To me, Allen has the same on the court attitude as Sheed. JUST DON'T PASS, just attack the basket.
ALLEN IS THE MISSING VARAIBLE!
ALLEN IS THE MISSING VARAIBLE!
Agree 100%.
After the first few minutes of the Mich St game, K must have said something because the rest of the way. The guards just attacked relentlessly. It created a lot of free throw attempts and fouls racking up for the Spartans. We need to do the same against Wisky, a shaky perimeter defending team.
Everyone pointing out Dekker is a different player than when we first matched up, not enough pointing out how different of a player Winslow is from that first matchup.
Mich State, the squad we just man handled and beat by 20, took this Wisky team to OT a couple weeks back in the B1G tournament final, and blew a double digit lead in the second half.
I just think we can win this matchup.
I just think we can win this matchup.
Most of the so called experts are picking Wisconsin, Vegas now says there are double the bets on Wisconsin, and they have beaten NC, Arizona, and Kentucky to get here. That's a murderers row, no matter how you look at it.
You pretty much have to throw the first meeting out, simply because Wisky missed a ton of shots in the paint (including bunnies), and we shot something like 65% for the game, and only won be 10. Doesn't paint a pretty picture, does it?!
Well, we are both better teams now, and we both deserve to be here. All I hear was Dekker had a bad ankle back then, but Justise was not Justise then either. This is going to be one hell of a game, and all we can ask for is that our kids have one last "excellent" game in them!!
Go Duke!!
JC-OFC
You pretty much have to throw the first meeting out, simply because Wisky missed a ton of shots in the paint (including bunnies), and we shot something like 65% for the game, and only won be 10. Doesn't paint a pretty picture, does it?!
Well, we are both better teams now, and we both deserve to be here. All I hear was Dekker had a bad ankle back then, but Justise was not Justise then either. This is going to be one hell of a game, and all we can ask for is that our kids have one last "excellent" game in them!!
Go Duke!!
JC-OFC
+ Let's not forget that UW's best offense in the 2nd half of that game was Jackson going one-on-one, which led him to finish with a game high 25 points. Nothing we've seen to date suggests that he's physically equipped to be that kind of player at this point.
Obviously, if Wisconsin shoots lights out -- like they did against Arizona -- it's going to be tough for us to win. But, on the other hand, that's probably unlikely and I have a feeling it will be easier to replicate our good shooting performance against them than it will be for them to light us up. I rewatched that game as well. While Sulaimon, in particular, made a few really nice jump shots, IMO, the story of that game was that Wisconsin really had no answer to the quickness of our guards. In the first half, Wisconsin tried to mask that by going under screens and sagging off our guards -- which led to a ton of in rhythm, wide-open 3s. In the second half, they extended their D to the 3 pt. line, which created driving lanes all over the place. Though, it's certainly possible that we'll be ice cold from 3 and that will free up Wisconsin to sag into the lane, my hunch is that a lot of Wisconsin's difficulties defending us will persist against Duke. While UK is probably a bit more talented than us, their real strength on offense is pounding it in the paint and then using their length to collect offensive rebounds. That's the one thing that Wisconsin can defend reasonably well. They're not very good if you can spread them out, and force their guys to defend in space -- and that's what we'll do to them. You never know how these games will go -- but, unless we just are having an off night (i.e., just can't make relatively open perimeter looks), my guess is that Wisconsin's going to have to score in the mid 70s to beat us.
This post was edited on 4/6 2:50 PM by aah555
This post was edited on 4/6 2:52 PM by aah555
Obviously, if Wisconsin shoots lights out -- like they did against Arizona -- it's going to be tough for us to win. But, on the other hand, that's probably unlikely and I have a feeling it will be easier to replicate our good shooting performance against them than it will be for them to light us up. I rewatched that game as well. While Sulaimon, in particular, made a few really nice jump shots, IMO, the story of that game was that Wisconsin really had no answer to the quickness of our guards. In the first half, Wisconsin tried to mask that by going under screens and sagging off our guards -- which led to a ton of in rhythm, wide-open 3s. In the second half, they extended their D to the 3 pt. line, which created driving lanes all over the place. Though, it's certainly possible that we'll be ice cold from 3 and that will free up Wisconsin to sag into the lane, my hunch is that a lot of Wisconsin's difficulties defending us will persist against Duke. While UK is probably a bit more talented than us, their real strength on offense is pounding it in the paint and then using their length to collect offensive rebounds. That's the one thing that Wisconsin can defend reasonably well. They're not very good if you can spread them out, and force their guys to defend in space -- and that's what we'll do to them. You never know how these games will go -- but, unless we just are having an off night (i.e., just can't make relatively open perimeter looks), my guess is that Wisconsin's going to have to score in the mid 70s to beat us.
This post was edited on 4/6 2:50 PM by aah555
This post was edited on 4/6 2:52 PM by aah555
Two different teams for sure. Most notably for Duke, we won't have Sulaimon's 14-point contribution. But, I also suspect Justise will score a few more than 5 points. I would also expect Dekker to score a bit more than 5 points... and as previously mentioned, Jackson isn't in the best of condition, so no 25 points from him. He's only played 28 minutes in 3 tournament games. I wouldn't expect any more than 15 minutes from him. We played MSU really well, but I don't believe transitive property is ever really a good standard for projecting for the outcome of a game. Rutgers beat Wisconsin, and Wisconsin beat Kentucky... but I'm pretty sure Kentucky would manhandle Rutgers.
Wisconsin seems to be the popular pick in this one. Duke has strangely flown under the radar this season overshadowed by UK's season and then the UW-UK rematch. Even tonight Duke is a slight underdog in Vegas' eyes.
I just love the way this Duke team is playing. Everyone points out to how Wisky has peaked but Duke just gets better with each game. It seems like every game the experts point out some question about this team and the kids answer with an exclamation point. This team is playing like a team on offense and now defense to go along with it's insane talent.
I think Kaminsky and Jah will get theirs. Kaminsky on the perimeter doesn't play to Okafor's strength but I don't think Kaminsky can guard Jah down low.
How Duke guards Dekker and Duke's guard play is key. Duke's guards should be able to take the game over and it's a huge advantage for Duke. If they can slow Dekker down, much like Duke did to Hayward in 2010 I think they'll cut the nets down. Obviously there are other factors but those are the big keys to me.
I think Duke is just playing on another level right now. It's gonna be a close game but I just feel Duke cuts down the nets and K gets his 5th. Guard play is huge and Duke has a major edge there. Take into account how Justice is playing, they'll have a hard time defending Duke and that will ultimately be the difference.
I just love the way this Duke team is playing. Everyone points out to how Wisky has peaked but Duke just gets better with each game. It seems like every game the experts point out some question about this team and the kids answer with an exclamation point. This team is playing like a team on offense and now defense to go along with it's insane talent.
I think Kaminsky and Jah will get theirs. Kaminsky on the perimeter doesn't play to Okafor's strength but I don't think Kaminsky can guard Jah down low.
How Duke guards Dekker and Duke's guard play is key. Duke's guards should be able to take the game over and it's a huge advantage for Duke. If they can slow Dekker down, much like Duke did to Hayward in 2010 I think they'll cut the nets down. Obviously there are other factors but those are the big keys to me.
I think Duke is just playing on another level right now. It's gonna be a close game but I just feel Duke cuts down the nets and K gets his 5th. Guard play is huge and Duke has a major edge there. Take into account how Justice is playing, they'll have a hard time defending Duke and that will ultimately be the difference.
The one clear unknowable is foul trouble. Last game, Hayes got 4 fouls and was pretty ineffective. Conversely, Okafor was limited to 27 minutes b/c of foul trouble. That is the one issue that could really swing the game one way or the other. We obviously need to keep Winslow / Okafor out of foul trouble as much as possible -- as Dekker and Kaminsky almost never get into any foul trouble. Though, if we could get Hayes into some foul trouble, I think that would be a real help from a matchup perspective b/c it would free up Justice to defend Dekker even when we go to the small lineup.
Hopefully, the refs call the game the same both ways, good or bad. Also, let's hope if it comes down to the final minute, Tyus and Quinn make a concerted effort to make sure they have the ball in their hands!
Let's hope it doesn't come to that.
Lastly, please know where Dekker is at all times, take him out of the game as much as possible.
Go Duke!!
JC-OFC
Let's hope it doesn't come to that.
Lastly, please know where Dekker is at all times, take him out of the game as much as possible.
Go Duke!!
JC-OFC