70% chance of them leaving. Paywall article, but here are highlights.
"Based on these recent classes, if a top-50 QB signee doesn’t start one game in his first two years on campus, there’s an 87 percent chance he’ll end up leaving the program. But among the quarterbacks who did earn a start in their first two years, more than 60 percent still ended up transferring during their careers."
"Among these 126 QBs who did transfer, almost 75 percent ended up at another FBS program, and 42 percent got to stay at the Power 5 level. Only nine of the 126 had to go to a junior college to continue their careers."
"We left the 2021 recruits out of this study because it felt too early to judge them. They’ve only been in college for two years. But 27 of the top 50 have already transferred, including five of the top 10"
"Based on these recent classes, if a top-50 QB signee doesn’t start one game in his first two years on campus, there’s an 87 percent chance he’ll end up leaving the program. But among the quarterbacks who did earn a start in their first two years, more than 60 percent still ended up transferring during their careers."
"Among these 126 QBs who did transfer, almost 75 percent ended up at another FBS program, and 42 percent got to stay at the Power 5 level. Only nine of the 126 had to go to a junior college to continue their careers."
"We left the 2021 recruits out of this study because it felt too early to judge them. They’ve only been in college for two years. But 27 of the top 50 have already transferred, including five of the top 10"
