Don't look now but..

[57stratdawg]

Warren Nolan's predicted final SEC standings:

MSU (20-10)
Kentucky (19-11)
Arkansas (18-12)
Vandy (18-12)
Auburn (18-12)
LSU (18-12)
Florida (18-12)
South Car (17-13)
Texas A&M (15-15)
OM (13-17)


Goes to show how much of a mess the SEC is this year.

 

[Philly Dawg]

My concern is can MSU maintain the consistency to finish with that record. I can imagine some ups and downs with a makeshift pitching staff.

 

[Uncle Ruckus]

No 17ing way. If this happens then it would be right up there with the UConn game. We shouldn't be sniffing a championship with our injuries.

 

[VillagepeopleDogs]

I don't see that either. Ran a numbers breakdown last night for the rest of the season. Was conservative with the wins and came up with 11-11 the rest of the way. Would put us at 33-23 overall and 15-15 in the conference. Might be enough to get in a regional but might have to make some noise in the tourney to get in one.

 

[Bulldogg31]

Here's how you'd get there:


From currently 8-4

Win 1 at South Carolina (9-6)
Sweep Bama (12-6)
Win 2 vs Auburn (14-7)
Win 1 At TAMU (15-9)
Sweep At Georgia (18-9)
Win 2 vs LSU (20-10)

Not completely impossible. I only gave us one win at TAMU because that seems like a tough place for us to win.
Win 2 over there and we could drop a game to Bama or UGA and still get to 20.

 

[57stratdawg]

Yeah, seems like winning at least 5 from Bama and UGA is going to be critical.

 

[BiscuitEater]

Was conservative with the wins and came up with 11-11 the rest of the way. Would put us at 33-23 overall and 15-15 in the conference.

MSU has 18 SEC games left. Based on your predictions, we go 7-11 during those games. I actually think we are in position to do somewhat better than that and still be 'conservative' with the estimate.

We play USCe @ Columbia and that will be a tough series. They are currently in 2nd in the East (behind Kentucky, which just lost 2 of 3 to MSU).

Home series with Bama, currently in last in the West; Home series with Auburn, currently tied for 1st in the West with MSU; Texas A&M @ College Station, currently 6th in the West; Georgia @ Athens, currently in 6th in the East; and finally, a Home series with LSU.

Based on percentages .. losing series to winning teams USCe, Auburn, & LSU .. winning series against 'losing teams Bama, A&M, & Georgia would give us at least a 9-9 record = Final SEC record of 17-13 (We won the SEC last year with a 21-9 record)

Clearly, to be in contention for the SEC, we need to avoid sweeps and take a couple of series, 3-0, like Bama, A&M, & GA.

 

[VillagepeopleDogs]

I've been around awhile. I was very conservative. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Drebin]

Yeah, seems like winning at least 5 from Bama and UGA is going to be critical.

If there was ever a team that would take two from SC, get swept by Alabama, and then sweep Auburn and LSU, this is it.

 

[coach66]

Do we have a shot at getting any pitching back?

Nm

 

[johnson86-1]

If there was ever a team that would take two from SC, get swept by Alabama, and then sweep Auburn and LSU, this is it.

Yea, I just can't see us being consistent with the pitching injuries we've had. I'm assuming we have been outperforming at this point and will regress to the mean somewhat over the rest of the season.
If we don't, that will be an incredible job by the staff and players. If we do, that will still be a great job by the staff and players battling through injuries.

But, maybe with how ridiculous rooker and mangum are combined with solid batters elsewhere makes this a good team even with a patchwork pitching staff. I still view pretty much everything as gravy at this point.

 

[WeWonItAll(Most)]

Yea, I just can't see us being consistent with the pitching injuries we've had. I'm assuming we have been outperforming at this point and will regress to the mean somewhat over the rest of the season.
If we don't, that will be an incredible job by the staff and players. If we do, that will still be a great job by the staff and players battling through injuries.

But, maybe with how ridiculous rooker and mangum are combined with solid batters elsewhere makes this a good team even with a patchwork pitching staff. I still view pretty much everything as gravy at this point.

These are my exact feelings as well. I still can't help but feel our lack of arms is going to derail a few weekends before the season's over. But I've been amazed by this team's toughness and have honestly had just as much fun watching this team as last year's team.

 

[Bulldogg31]

Is there a better hitting lineup than Kentucky in the SEC? I certainly hope not.

Our staff handled them very well except for a handful of innings. I think our pitching is probably not as bad as some think.

 

[Hoover Dawg]

I think worst case scenario we are swept by SC, beat Bama 2 of 3, win 1 vs. Auburn, win 1 at Texas A&M, win 1 at Georgia, and win 1 vs. LSU. Split the midweek. That puts us at 30-26 (14-16). Solidly in Hoover but definitely on the regional bubble. Guess it'll depend on RPI. Really need two more wins there, maybe one more OOC and one more SEC to get to 31-25 (15-15).

 

[Hump4Hoops]

If there is one, it's us.

Is there a better hitting lineup than Kentucky in the SEC? I certainly hope not.[\QUOTE].

 

[Bulldogg31]

Good grief that's pessimistic.

 

[WeWonItAll(Most)]

Is there a better hitting lineup than Kentucky in the SEC? I certainly hope not.

Our staff handled them very well except for a handful of innings. I think our pitching is probably not as bad as some think.

I don't think our pitching is bad in terms of quality, we just don't have enough arms. Even this weekend, when everything went reasonably well, we were nearly through every arm we had.

 

[Hoover Dawg]

^^ short memory

 

[GloryDawg]

Well four weeks ago who would have thought us being in this position. I think everyone should take a chill pill, kick back and enjoy what could end up being a really good rebuilding year.

 

[Bulldogg31]

I also think folks may be underestimating the value of having the best college baseball player in the country. A player like Rooker, not only very talented but also very well grounded, can lift a team beyond its normal ceiling.

 

[bruiser.sixpack]

I think we are beginning to find pitchers rather than throwers as the season progresses. No one has been more pessimistic than me(ask Kurt Rambis and Engie), but I see something of a little bit of depth starting to form from the middle to long relief guys. Gordon, Barton, and Jolly have started to find that extra out pitch. I believe we can get some serious innings out of those 3, and only use Mangum in extreme situations or in one or two of the 4 midweek games we have left. We are 22-12 with 22 games left. I think we are more apt to go 13-9 in those with 10-8 SEC and 3-1 midweek. I think the Bears might get us in Pearl since we swept them at Oxford and that game may mean more to them for pride.

 

[57stratdawg]

I believe Rigby is still several weeks away. Buzz is that Billingsly is done for the season. Last I heard Ashcraft should return in the short term, but I don't know if that's this week or next week.

Plumlee needs to step up. We need 4+ innings out of him a week even if he gives up a couple runs while doing it.

 

[ezsoil]

Having two mid week games hurt this week as well