The UW defense sure looks formidable. It'll be a heavy lift for NU's offense to say the least. However, UW's offense lacks a running game and they are one dimensional, so the hope is a relentless NU effort can slog out a win in a low scoring & punt-filled game. Special teams and turnovers would be extra critical in such an affair.
Still not sure if Clement will play (or play effectively), but UW's OL is pretty suspect this year, so I don't know how big a difference that makes. They have an efficient passing game that lacks big play ability, which should play into the NU defensive strength.
Wisconsin's non-conference strength of schedule was rather abysmal other than Alabama (who clobbered them 35-17 in a game that wasn't as close as the score indicated). Their other non-conference games were Miami (OH), Troy and Hawaii. In another scheduling bonanza, they also managed to draw Rutgers and Maryland as their eastern division cross-over games (while NU got Michigan and Penn State).
The three like opponents to date have been:
Iowa
- NU home loss (10-40) on 10/17
- UW home loss (6-10) on 10/3
Nebraska
- NU road win (30-28) on 10/24
- UW road win (23-21) on 10/10
Purdue
- NU home win (21-14) on 11/14
- UW home win (24-7) on 10/17
The outlier was Iowa, which clearly was NU's most abysmal overall game of the season both offensively and defensively.
Other than NU playing poorly in the games, Michigan and Iowa have in common run-stuffing and dominant overall defenses that can make you one (or zero) dimensional. Wisconsin has that. However, Michigan and Iowa both had offensive balance including effective running games against NU (and most of their opponents). Wisconsin has the former on defense (gulp), but lacks the latter on offense (hope).
NU's got to play its best game of the season to give themselves a chance to win the game in the 4th quarter. It would be nice if Wisconsin decides to turn in a stinker performance coming off their bye week.
On paper, UW looks like a 10+ point favorite, but their inability to establish the running game in their games even against mediocre or poor defenses makes them vulnerable when they run into a great pass defense, which NU has.
I'm glad the game is not played on paper, and I will expect the unexpected.