Distribution

[zebnatto]

EO and LS, except for fouls/injuries, will take up close to all 40 mins (call it 36) at the C or whatever choose to call it.
DH and Ace together about 68 mins.
Jeremiah: 26
So those are my guesses. That's big minutes at four spots.
The rest of the rotation:

JMike
Acuff
Dercack
Hayes
Martini

We all know that much of minute distribution for these five will be circumstantial. So, a part A and a part B.

Part A: How would each be best used?

Part B: Your estimate for average MPG for each. I'm gonna assume 130/200 for EO, LS, Ace, Dylan, Jeremiah. For you math wizzes, that leaves 70 mins,

I'll go like this, re, Part B

JMichael: 18 mins
Acuff (biggest unknown): 14 mins
Dercack: 18
Hayes: 12
Martini: 8 mins

And I'm still over by four minutes!

 

[RUJMM78]

EO and LS, except for fouls/injuries, will take up close to all 40 mins (call it 36) at the C or whatever choose to call it.
DH and Ace together about 68 mins.
Jeremiah: 26
So those are my guesses. That's big minutes at four spots.
The rest of the rotation:

JMike
Acuff
Dercack
Hayes
Martini

We all know that much of minute distribution for these five will be circumstantial. So, a part A and a part B.

Part A: How would each be best used?

Part B: Your estimate for average MPG for each. I'm gonna assume 130/200 for EO, LS, Ace, Dylan, Jeremiah. For you math wizzes, that leaves 70 mins,

I'll go like this, re, Part B

JMichael: 18 mins
Acuff (biggest unknown): 14 mins
Dercack: 18
Hayes: 12
Martini: 8 mins

And I'm still over by four minutes!

Martini has to play more than 8 minutes and Hayes more than 12 minutes.They are the two best 3 point shooters.

 

[zebnatto]

Martini has to play more than 8 minutes and Hayes more than 12 minutes.They are the two best 3 point shooters.

A good problem to have: but if you add them to thirty from 20 mins combined, from whom do you deduct?

 

[lion1983]

After the exhibition and just 1 game, barring injuries:

I think it possible that Ogbole and Sommerville together perhaps may average just 30 mpg.

Bailey (obviously will play 3 positions: WF, PF and C - maybe only 2-4 mpg at Center) and Harper 32-34 mpg each (64-68 mpg total).

That is 94-98 mpg total, of 200 mpg ... leaving 102-106 mpg.

Williams will average 22-24 mpg, if I had to guess - would allow him to go 100% and max effort for every minute he is in the game.

That is 116-122 mpg ... leaving 78-84 mpg for the rest of the team.

Martini will get 5-7 mpg at center and the rest at PF ... totaling 15-20 mpg ... leaves 58-69 mpg for other players.

The others? Hayes, Davis, Derkack and Acuff ... 4 players to split 60-70 mpg, let's say. If equal, that is 14 mpg per player ... but it won't be that way, I suspect.

My SON, whose opinion I respect, believes Acuff should be the 4th of these 4 players, getting the least time. It is pretty clear, that even though Pikiell has a number of players bringing the ball up the court to trigger the offense (we have seen Harper, Williams, Bailey - in the exhibition, Davis, Derkack and Acuff all bring up the ball), that Davis is viewed as the primary back-up PG - and we know how good he is defensively, so he should get minutes. We also are pretty sure Hayes is the best pure shooter on the team - and viewed as such. And we can see how Pikiell uses Derkack, and likes to.

If I had to guess, though yes, as the poster stated circumstances will vary depending on match-ups and in-game needs, the ORDER of minutes for the remaining 58-69 minutes would seem to be:

1) Hayes
2) Davis
3) Derkack
4) Acuff

Of course, in SOME games, Ogbole/Sommerville may get more than 30 minutes - taking away other minutes from other payers (Martini, Hayes, Derkack mainly) ... in other games they might get FEWER minutes, opening up more minutes for other players.. If Acuff gets hot in any game, he will get more minutes in that game - same with Martini and Hayes. If RU needs defense and ball handling is a game, Davis and Derkack get more m nutes.

 

[NBKnight]

After the exhibition and just 1 game, barring injuries:

I think it possible that Ogbole and Sommerville together perhaps may average just 30 mpg.

Bailey (obviously will play 3 positions: WF, PF and C - maybe only 2-4 mpg at Center) and Harper 32-34 mpg each (64-68 mpg total).

That is 94-98 mpg total, of 200 mpg ... leaving 102-106 mpg.

Williams will average 22-24 mpg, if I had to guess - would allow him to go 100% and max effort for every minute he is in the game.

That is 116-122 mpg ... leaving 78-84 mpg for the rest of the team.

Martini will get 5-7 mpg at center and the rest at PF ... totaling 15-20 mpg ... leaves 58-69 mpg for other players.

The others? Hayes, Davis, Derkack and Acuff ... 4 players to split 60-70 mpg, let's say. If equal, that is 14 mpg per player ... but it won't be that way, I suspect.

My SON, whose opinion I respect, believes Acuff should be the 4th of these 4 players, getting the least time. It is pretty clear, that even though Pikiell has a number of players bringing the ball up the court to trigger the offense (we have seen Harper, Williams, Bailey - in the exhibition, Davis, Derkack and Acuff all bring up the ball), that Davis is viewed as the primary back-up PG - and we know how good he is defensively, so he should get minutes. We also are pretty sure Hayes is the best pure shooter on the team - and viewed as such. And we can see how Pikiell uses Derkack, and likes to.

If I had to guess, though yes, as the poster stated circumstances will vary depending on match-ups and in-game needs, the ORDER of minutes for the remaining 58-69 minutes would seem to be:

1) Hayes
2) Davis
3) Derkack
4) Acuff

Of course, in SOME games, Ogbole/Sommerville may get more than 30 minutes - taking away other minutes from other payers (Martini, Hayes, Derkack mainly) ... in other games they might get FEWER minutes, opening up more minutes for other players.. If Acuff gets hot in any game, he will get more minutes in that game - same with Martini and Hayes. If RU needs defense and ball handling is a game, Davis and Derkack get more m nutes.

It is hard to get a handle on Acuff at this point, but I think he will be in the top 2 of that list, maybe even the most. I think he is just getting his game legs under him at this point.

 

[zebnatto]

Disagree here: I see few games where EO plus LS will be just 30. Is that then ten for Zach at the five.(Maybe in the pre-Vegas games.) Matchups, yes, but seems like a lot. A seems a bit low for Jeremiah—if so, could be for good reason, very solid play by others. I think knows what he can get from all accept Acuff.

 

[PhillyRU]

Something like this feels right by conference play, I think JMike earns more PT if his 3PT% is adequate

1 DH (32), Acuff (8)
2 JWill (24) JMike (10), Acuff (6)
3 Hayes (23), Ace (7), Derkack (10)
4 Ace (20), Martini (15), Derkack (5)
5 Somerville (20), Ogbole (13), Martini (4), Ace (3)

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

GRF Darkhorse mid season prediciton

Harper 32 J Will 8
J Will 16 JaMike 20 Acuff 4
Bailey 6 Hayes 18 Acuff 10 Dercack 6
Martini 10 Bailey 16 Dercack 14
Ogobole 12 Bailey 10 Sommerville 10 Martini 8

Harper 32
Bailey 32
J Will 24
JaMike 20
Dercack 20
Martini 18
Hayes 18
Acuff 14
Ogobole 12
Sommerville 10

Where my confidence is low...
1. Obviously the 5...I have serious doubts about Sommerville defensively, but obvious doubts about ogobole too. Don't have warm fuzzies about martini defending 5s too. I know Bailey has to be a shot blocker if needed. Learning rotations and wanting to play 5, who knows.
2. Acuff- we are all taking stabs based on stats we have in the past. He is just getting back from injury, tough to get a read
3. Dercack and JaMike- can we really have 2 guys that are challenged with their shot on the floor at same time? Are they really as bad shooting as I make them out to be?
4. JWill---will we get to the point where we look at JaMike and Dercack not being great shooters and JWill too. JWill is a leader on offense, but do we need a point guard? If my minutes are right you have 64 minutes of perimeter players that can't shoot. All 3 are very good on defense and YES defense is very important, but do you run the risk of having an offense that is BELOW AVERAGE?
5. Let's be honest....big game in B1G Pike is going to be playing hard with the media TOs getting Bailey and Harper rest and they are playing 36 minutes and that runs the risk of not being fresh short term and impacts long term, but it has to be REALLY hard to have 2 lottery picks on the bench. Those minutes could be taken from low man on perimeter totem poll, could be Acuff. Who knows.

 

[lion1983]

GRF Darkhorse mid season prediciton

Harper 32 J Will 8
J Will 16 JaMike 20 Acuff 4
Bailey 6 Hayes 18 Acuff 10 Dercack 6
Martini 10 Bailey 16 Dercack 14
Ogobole 12 Bailey 10 Sommerville 10 Martini 8

Harper 32
Bailey 32
J Will 24
JaMike 20
Dercack 20
Martini 18
Hayes 18
Acuff 14
Ogobole 12
Sommerville 10

Lest you think I always disagree: I could definitely see something like that. Though Martini might defend more at the 5, and Bailey shifting to the 4 instead - same total minutes, though.

I do suspect Sommerville gets more than 10 mpg, and Derkack and Davis each get a few mpg less (Sommerville minutes at the 5 push Bailey back to the 4 and 3, costing Derkack and Davis some minutes). But your scenario is definitely plausible.

 

[goru7]

EO and LS, except for fouls/injuries, will take up close to all 40 mins (call it 36) at the C or whatever choose to call it.
DH and Ace together about 68 mins.
Jeremiah: 26
So those are my guesses. That's big minutes at four spots.
The rest of the rotation:

JMike
Acuff
Dercack
Hayes
Martini

We all know that much of minute distribution for these five will be circumstantial. So, a part A and a part B.

Part A: How would each be best used?

Part B: Your estimate for average MPG for each. I'm gonna assume 130/200 for EO, LS, Ace, Dylan, Jeremiah. For you math wizzes, that leaves 70 mins,

I'll go like this, re, Part B

JMichael: 18 mins
Acuff (biggest unknown): 14 mins
Dercack: 18
Hayes: 12
Martini: 8 mins

And I'm still over by four minutes!

In no universe is PJ Hayes and Zack Martini only getting 12 and 8 minutes a game. They are your 2 best 3 point shooters who will benefit the most when Dylan and ACE are doubled or when teams go zone which I expect they will do a lot. They both will be playing closer to 20 minutes a game maybe 18.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

In no universe is PJ Hayes and Zack Martini only getting 12 and 8 minutes a game. They are your 2 best 3 point shooters who will benefit the most when Dylan and ACE are doubled or when teams go zone which I expect they will do a lot. They both will be playing closer to 20 minutes a game maybe 18.

In no universe does a healthy Harper or Bailey get under 32 MPG.....after that anything is possible.

PJ Hayes can be found not good enough defensively and a shooting slump sends him to the bench
Zach Martini can be found overmatched at the 5 and a lot of guards deserving minutes pushing Bailey to 4
JaMike Dercack JWill all are guys with somewhat similar games (good and bad) and it is possible 2 takes the minutes of the 3rd
Acuff doesn't look great now and he could be last man out
Ogobole can find himself in the doghouse real quick
Sommerville can be undersized and overmatched at this level

We have 10 guys in the rotation and if 8 show to be well ahead of 9 and 10 then any of these players could get DNPs. That is actually a BULLISH RU take

 

[lion1983]

In no universe does a healthy Harper or Bailey get under 32 MPG.....after that anything is possible.

PJ Hayes can be found not good enough defensively and a shooting slump sends him to the bench
Zach Martini can be found overmatched at the 5 and a lot of guards deserving minutes pushing Bailey to 4
JaMike Dercack JWill all are guys with somewhat similar games (good and bad) and it is possible 2 takes the minutes of the 3rd
Acuff doesn't look great now and he could be last man out
Ogobole can find himself in the doghouse real quick
Sommerville can be undersized and overmatched at this level

We have 10 guys in the rotation and if 8 show to be well ahead of 9 and 10 then any of these players could get DNPs. That is actually a BULLISH RU take

A very fair analysis, FYI. Many things are possible. That is Pikiell's challenge - fitting the pieces together overall, and from game to game, and within each game.

It is REALLY tough finding minutes for 10 players, especially when you have 2 high level stars expected to average 32+ mpg. It is one reason it has been so tough to handicap/project minutes for any players besides Bailey and Harper - and maybe Williams (who would seem very likely to get at least 22, if not 24-25 mpg). And when you add in Williams ... that further restricts minutes elsewhere.

 

[RAC’emUp]

Acuff wont be in the rotation within a month. Low percentage 3 point shooter, no speed or particular skill I can see that warrants special consideration. Sommerville will play a lot; Ogbole won’t - 5 minutes a game maybe against big centers. Hayes will play a lot as will Dercack.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

EO and LS, except for fouls/injuries, will take up close to all 40 mins (call it 36) at the C or whatever choose to call it.
DH and Ace together about 68 mins.
Jeremiah: 26
So those are my guesses. That's big minutes at four spots.
The rest of the rotation:

JMike
Acuff
Dercack
Hayes
Martini

We all know that much of minute distribution for these five will be circumstantial. So, a part A and a part B.

Part A: How would each be best used?

Part B: Your estimate for average MPG for each. I'm gonna assume 130/200 for EO, LS, Ace, Dylan, Jeremiah. For you math wizzes, that leaves 70 mins,

I'll go like this, re, Part B

JMichael: 18 mins
Acuff (biggest unknown): 14 mins
Dercack: 18
Hayes: 12
Martini: 8 mins

And I'm still over by four minutes!

Martini DEF playing 12+

 

[Scangg]

The 5 spot i see as being very matchup dependent

Martini might play less in games against a monster at the 5 where he is too small

Ogbole might not play many minutes against smaller team where his size isn't needed

Sommerville defense and rebounding against elite competition TBD. Bad and barely played against SJU and their monster big. Dominates against small school. Actual average performance will be somewhere in between

 

[Knights 1212]

I feel Hayes will definitely play 18-20 minutes a game and maybe even a little more than 20 mpg. He is a very good shooter and he seems to be playing quite well on defense and has a very good basketball IQ.

 

[NickRU714]

1. We aren't playing 10 guys significant minutes in most games. Dortch and Grant and the end of the bench. But it's going to extend beyond that.
Not everyone can play 10+ minutes.

2. I've been saying for months that Hayes (and Martini) can not be the end of the rotation guys as our best shooters. Literally no team buries their best 3pt shooter to the end of the bench for 1-2 shots a game.

 

[NickRU714]

Something like this feels right by conference play, I think JMike earns more PT if his 3PT% is adequate

1 DH (32), Acuff (8)
2 JWill (24) JMike (10), Acuff (6)
3 Hayes (23), Ace (7), Derkack (10)
4 Ace (20), Martini (15), Derkack (5)
5 Somerville (20), Ogbole (13), Martini (4), Ace (3)

What's adequate?
Last season he shot 22%.

 

[needmorecowbell]

Couple of thoughts…

Martini is going to play minutes at the 5. Especially vs smaller teams. He’s going to get starter minutes between 4-5 spots.

PJ is going to play a lot. I see him being the 6th man. He brings energy and shot making off the bench.

Pike is going to rely on Derkack as a defensive stopper.

Late season 8 man rotation
Dylan
Ace
Martini
Sommerville
JWill
PJ
Derkack
Acuff

I think Davis finds a way on the court but it will take someone taking a step back.

 

[RAC’emUp]

Couple of thoughts…

Martini is going to play minutes at the 5. Especially vs smaller teams. He’s going to get starter minutes between 4-5 spots.

PJ is going to play a lot. I see him being the 6th man. He brings energy and shot making off the bench.

Pike is going to rely on Derkack as a defensive stopper.

Late season 8 man rotation
Dylan
Ace
Martini
Sommerville
JWill
PJ
Derkack
Acuff

I think Davis finds a way on the court but it will take someone taking a step back.

Substitute JMike for Acuff and you’ve got it.

 

[goru7]

In no universe does a healthy Harper or Bailey get under 32 MPG.....after that anything is possible.

PJ Hayes can be found not good enough defensively and a shooting slump sends him to the bench
Zach Martini can be found overmatched at the 5 and a lot of guards deserving minutes pushing Bailey to 4
JaMike Dercack JWill all are guys with somewhat similar games (good and bad) and it is possible 2 takes the minutes of the 3rd
Acuff doesn't look great now and he could be last man out
Ogobole can find himself in the doghouse real quick
Sommerville can be undersized and overmatched at this level

We have 10 guys in the rotation and if 8 show to be well ahead of 9 and 10 then any of these players could get DNPs. That is actually a BULLISH RU take

You are so defensive minded you cannot see the Forest thru the trees. Today’s basketball and successful basketball and efficient basketball means you have to put points on the board. PJ and Zack are 2 of our best , most efficient shooters and must get the appropriate shots ( PJ needs10 and Zack 6-8) both from 2 and from 3. They will play more minutes period. They are also not liabilities defensively.

 

[Scangg]

Couple of thoughts…

Martini is going to play minutes at the 5. Especially vs smaller teams. He’s going to get starter minutes between 4-5 spots.

PJ is going to play a lot. I see him being the 6th man. He brings energy and shot making off the bench.

Pike is going to rely on Derkack as a defensive stopper.

Late season 8 man rotation
Dylan
Ace
Martini
Sommerville
JWill
PJ
Derkack
Acuff

I think Davis finds a way on the court but it will take someone taking a step back.

Pike is not leaving Davis out of the rotation

 

[BillyC80]

I hope Pike can find a couple minutes here and there for Grant and Dortch, in low risk situations or blowouts. Let’s see what they can do.

 

[PhillyRU]

What's adequate?
Last season he shot 22%.

Certainly not 22% lol. If he's only shooting the wide-open ones I'd say at least 33-35%, otherwise teams won't guard him on the perimeter and it mucks up the whole spacing (esp. if he's playing alongside JWill and Ogbole)

 

[Shelby65]

Certainly not 22% lol. If he's only shooting the wide-open ones I'd say at least 33-35%, otherwise teams won't guard him on the perimeter and it mucks up the whole spacing (esp. if he's playing alongside JWill and Ogbole)

It’s not a question. They will not guard him on the perimeter. He’s that bad a shooter.

 

[NickRU714]

Pike is not leaving Davis out of the rotation

That may be the case.

I know it's a hot take but I feel our success will be inversely related to Davis/JWill playing time.

If the season turns sour, my number one guess as to why is Davis and JWill clogging up the offense.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

You are so defensive minded you cannot see the Forest thru the trees. Today’s basketball and successful basketball and efficient basketball means you have to put points on the board. PJ and Zack are 2 of our best , most efficient shooters and must get the appropriate shots ( PJ needs10 and Zack 6-8) both from 2 and from 3. They will play more minutes period. They are also not liabilities defensively.

What does that mean for Steve Pikiell? He can't see the Forest either.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

That may be the case.

I know it's a hot take but I feel our success will be inversely related to Davis/JWill playing time.

If the season turns sour, my number one guess as to why is Davis and JWill clogging up the offense.

I agree with this sort of, but for a different reason. To me it would be a potential sign that the others weren't "good enough" to wrestle minutes away.

We also both agree about J Will's role in an offense as a "non PG"....especially in a rotation with Dercack and Davis getting a decent amount of minutes.

 

[goru7]

What does that mean for Steve Pikiell? He can't see the Forest either.

What does even mean ? Pike has already played PJ more minutes than the projection made in this thread and but for foul trouble , Zack would have played more. What are you even arguing ?

 

[NBKnight]

What does even mean ? Pike has already played PJ more minutes than the projection made in this thread and but for foul trouble , Zack would have played more. What are you even arguing ?

He just makes stuff up.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

He just makes stuff up.

Making up that Pikiell disagrees with the premise of what goru said?????

OK.

Anyone who has followed this program knows exactly what the program is about and which side of the court we excel at.

 

[Scangg]

FIG loves defense but so does Pike clearly

If you don't think a player could fall down the rotation or have minutes cut by Pike due to defensive struggles, not sure what to tell you

 

[goru7]

Making up that Pikiell disagrees with the premise of what goru said?????

OK.

Anyone who has followed this program knows exactly what the program is about and which side of the court we excel at.

You are lost if you think defense is going to be the key to winning games. We do not have a rim protector for the first time in 8 years. Our interior front line defense is no where near elite and our guards have to be super elite to give us a superior edge defensively over every team. Loved how Dylan played defense the first 15 minutes and went over screens. Derdack , JMike and Jwlll are also active defenders and Ace will play good defense but offense is what will separate the tight battles into more comfortable wins. No one is abandoning defense but offensive output and efficiency will be how this team gets to the top of the conference. Disagree with that all you want !!!!!!!

 

[snowboarder]

You are lost if you think defense is going to be the key to winning games. We do not have a rim protector for the first time in 8 years. Our interior front line defense is no where near elite and our guards have to be super elite to give us a superior edge defensively over every team. Loved how Dylan played defense the first 15 minutes and went over screens. Derdack , JMike and Jwlll are also active defenders and Ace will play good defense but offense is what will separate the tight battles into more comfortable wins. No one is abandoning defense but offensive output and efficiency will be how this team gets to the top of the conference. Disagree with that all you want !!!!!!!

Pike has to be thinking out of the box on this
We do not have a prototypical Big Ten center on the roster
We need to rebound as a team and Martini and Hayes will have to play big minutes for this team to be successful
Their presence on the floor eliminates the ability of opposing teams to help out on Dylan and Ace

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

You are lost if you think defense is going to be the key to winning games. We do not have a rim protector for the first time in 8 years. Our interior front line defense is no where near elite and our guards have to be super elite to give us a superior edge defensively over every team. Loved how Dylan played defense the first 15 minutes and went over screens. Derdack , JMike and Jwlll are also active defenders and Ace will play good defense but offense is what will separate the tight battles into more comfortable wins. No one is abandoning defense but offensive output and efficiency will be how this team gets to the top of the conference. Disagree with that all you want !!!!!!!

I have been pretty clear about what I perceive to be the most important thing regarding our success.

1. Ace and Dylan's offensive efficiency
2. Their buy in to defensive, rebounding and being good teammates

With that I am making the assumption that the D will be fine as there are enough pieces, BUT.........Pikiell always will lean towards players that will play D, rebound and win 50/50s.

Give our roster to the 350+ D1 coaches and I believe no one (or VERY FEW) would play Dercack and JaMike more than he would.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Said differently....with this roster Pike is still going to try and win 75-65 instead of 90-80. I'd be shocked if he changed.

This team will be Top 50 defensive efficiency. You can book it, not because of the roster, but because who the coach is. The question, in my mind, will we be good enough offensively to be a top 25 offensive team.

We were VERY good defensively in the 1st game.....and no surprise JaMike played a LOT

 

[Scangg]

Pike has to be thinking out of the box on this
We do not have a prototypical Big Ten center on the roster
We need to rebound as a team and Martini and Hayes will have to play big minutes for this team to be successful
Their presence on the floor eliminates the ability of opposing teams to help out on Dylan and Ace

Martini and Hayes are crucial floor spacers. Possibly Acuff too. One of the two should probably be on the court at all times

 

[Scangg]

Said differently....with this roster Pike is still going to try and win 75-65 instead of 90-80. I'd be shocked if he changed.

This team will be Top 50 defensive efficiency. You can book it, not because of the roster, but because who the coach is. The question, in my mind, will we be good enough offensively to be a top 25 offensive team.

We were VERY good defensively in the 1st game.....and no surprise JaMike played a LOT

I think some fans are disagreeing bc they WANT Pike to be more offensive minded and play our best offensive lineups

Will Pike do that? I agree with FIG. Pike is more likely to stick to his DNA and value defense. He may also be thinking Ace and Dylan will be doing the heavy lifting on offense anyway

Completely agree that players like JMike and Derkack will get more minutes under Pike than they would under other coaches. It's why I kept pushing back on those predicting Davis would be out of the rotation. It doesn't matter if you as a fan like Davis or not. Pike loves him

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Going to see a lot of PJ Hayes if Ace is always out

 

[zappaa]

Horrendous foul