Defensive Talent - Pac12/SEC

[messageboardsuperhero]

Long post, but some of the talk about “all SEC defenses are awesome” needs to be addressed.

We all agree that the SECW is the premier division in CFB, especially when it comes to defensive talent. But how big is the gap really between the top teams in the SECW and the top teams in the Pac12?

IMO, the gap between Alabama and LSU from a defensive talent standpoint is massive compared to anything in the Pac12 (and anything in CFB other than Ohio State, Georgia, and maybe Clemson). Defensive players drafted since 2010:

Alabama- 55
LSU- 45

No one in CFB outside of maybe 2-3 other programs could compare to that. It does not matter if we run the air raid, the Mullen read option, or if God himself came down from Mount Sinai gave us the perfect offensive scheme. If that kind of talent is well coached, we are going to struggle to score because we don’t have the athletes.

The rest of this is where it gets murky. Let’s look at Auburn and A&M defensive picks since 2010 and compare them to the best defenses in the Pac12 North. We’ll even throw in USC, since that is another team the Leach offense had a lot of success against.

Auburn- 22
A&M- 16

Oregon- 21
Washington- 26
Stanford- 18
USC- 25

So once you get past the elite of the elite (who we are going to ALWAYS struggle with), there is not really that much of a defensive talent gap between the top teams in the Pac 12 and the rest of the SECW. Leach routinely destroyed all of these defenses except UW, and he did it with 60-65 ranked talent.

Look at the rest of our schedule. Our four non-conference opponents will almost always have less talent than those Pac12 teams. OM, Arkansas, and Kentucky will almost always not have more talent than those Pac12 teams. Outside of Florida and Georgia the SECE is garbage, so more than half of the time our other East opponent will not have good defensive talent.

In 9 or 10 of the games on our typical 12 game schedule, Leach will be going against teams with less than or at best equal defensive talent to what he saw from the top teams in the Pac12. And with the lone exception of UW, he destroyed those defenses. So much for the narrative that every single team we will ever play has the same or better defensive talent than Washington.

 

[ZombieKissinger]

I think the fact that we were competitive with Georgia last year also says something. Offense wasn’t great against them but at least it was a game. I’m not 100% convinced it’ll work out, but I think our sample size is way too low right now, and I want to give him some time. I did not feel the same way about Moorhead

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

I’m not standing on the table for Leach or really even trying to defend him. We have not been good offensively, and ultimately that’s on him. But we have steadily improved since Will Rogers took the QB job over. We are in basically the exact same spot WSU was in at this point in Leach’s tenure.

The point of this post was to say, while I do think Leach will have good offenses here in the future, the air raid ultimately may or may not “work” at Mississippi State. But if it doesn’t work, it won’t be because “by God, Leach has never seen defensive talent like they have at Auburn, Kentucky, Arkansas, etc. and he doesn’t know how to handle it.” Because that is simply not true.

 

[PirateDawg]

I am enjoying your posts MBSH

I’m not standing on the table for Leach or really even trying to defend him. We have not been good offensively, and ultimately that’s on him. But we have steadily improved since Will Rogers took the QB job over. We are in basically the exact same spot WSU was in at this point in Leach’s tenure.

The point of this post was to say, while I do think Leach will have good offenses here in the future, the air raid ultimately may or may not “work” at Mississippi State. But if it doesn’t work, it won’t be because “by God, Leach has never seen defensive talent like they have at Auburn, Kentucky, Arkansas, etc. and he doesn’t know how to handle it.” Because that is simply not true.

Your last paragraph is so true! That line was stated by the talking heads when we hired Leach and it has been parroted ad nauseum on here that I'm sick of reading it. You would hope that people would learn to think for themselves but I'm guessing that is a monumental task this day and age.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

But if it doesn’t work, it won’t be because “by God, Leach has never seen defensive talent like they have at Auburn, Kentucky, Arkansas, etc. and he doesn’t know how to handle it.” Because that is simply not true.

Leach is on record saying those who criticize the viability of the air raid in the SEC are acting like every corner in the league is Deion Sanders. There are mediocre and bad DBs on every SEC team.

It's ridiculous how many people on this board aren't even willing to give this thing a shot. We're 14 games in and have a sophomore QB who hasn't even played in all of those 14 for crying out loud.

I'm convinced it's because Ole Miss has a decent team this year. The mentally weak portion of this fanbase cannot stand that. It's embarrassing and pathetic.

 

[8dog]

Does anyone else run the pure version of the Air Raid Leach runs? Im asking because I dont know the answer.

 

[Smoked Toag]

I’m not standing on the table for Leach or really even trying to defend him. We have not been good offensively, and ultimately that’s on him. But we have steadily improved since Will Rogers took the QB job over. We are in basically the exact same spot WSU was in at this point in Leach’s tenure.

The point of this post was to say, while I do think Leach will have good offenses here in the future, the air raid ultimately may or may not “work” at Mississippi State. But if it doesn’t work, it won’t be because “by God, Leach has never seen defensive talent like they have at Auburn, Kentucky, Arkansas, etc. and he doesn’t know how to handle it.” Because that is simply not true.

Yeah no doubt. It's not about it working in the SEC, it's whether WE, as in Mississippi State, can consistently accumulate the personnel needed to make it successful.

I have no doubt in my mind that Leach would be more successful at these places in the SEC who can sign the best drop-back passers and wide receivers, but may not always get the best line talent. Florida and Tennessee ring a bell. State has always been a running/defense sort of team in our better years. Even Arkansas was probably better suited than we were for the Air Raid.

Guess we will see. I've learned to avoid saying "such and such could NEVER happen".

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

Does anyone else run the pure version of the Air Raid Leach runs? Im asking because I dont know the answer.

Not really. I think Leach is the only one in CFB running it like this, which is what leads to some fan frustration. I personally wouldn’t mind seeing him do some things like add variation to the run game like counters or some misdirection, implement more tempo, maybe throw in a jet sweep to get Tulu the ball, etc.

But the thing that makes me scratch my head about the “well everyone else has adapted so Leach should too” talking point is that none of those guys have really had more success offensively than Leach. At least those with similar talent.

Kingsbury is in the NFL but his college offenses were not better than Leach’s. He failed at the same place Leach was wildly successful.

Holgersen’s offenses have been good but not really any better than Leach’s, and Leach has without doubt had a better HC career.

Lincoln Riley has had great offenses at Oklahoma, but he has a massive talent advantage.

Graham Harrell has had good offenses at USC, but not better than Leach’s were at WSU. And he also had a big talent advantage.

 

[philduckworth]

Does anyone else run the pure version of the Air Raid Leach runs? Im asking because I dont know the answer.

No.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

Nobody else runs the pure OG Air Raid. It is a QB driven precision offense. It will work when executed properly and eventually we will get it clicking. But it will fluctuate when we have QB turnover but none of Leach previous QB were highly recruited 4 or 5 star guys so he has never played with the talent he currently has. I was wrong. Graham Harrell was a 4 star

 

[the dog is on the loose]

Our single biggest issue offensively is Rogers still learning the system and trying to make it go. I do believe when/if he gets confidence to start playing a little less conservatively then we will be fine. My single biggest concern going forward after this season is how we will be defensively. Really don't believe Arnett will be here after this season. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[Cooterpoot]

Leach can win some games here. But the offense is always going to be a ball control offense that SEC defense will create mistakes from. And Leach is going to have to do a better job recruiting defense.