to the best of your abiity, using all research, reports, being bold, picking upsets based on statistics. pick a winner game by game with scores until there is a champion
to the best of your abiity, using all research, reports, being bold, picking upsets based on statistics. pick a winner game by game with scores until there is a champion
I went game-by-game through your bracket and used common upset indicators used by analytics models (KenPom-style efficiency gaps, 12-5 upset history, defensive efficiency, tempo mismatch, and tournament experience). I also included a few bold upsets, because historically about 10β12 upsets happen in Round 1 of NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament.
Scores are realistic tournament-style (lower pace, tighter defense).
9 TCU 71 β Ohio State 68
12 Northern Iowa 69 β St. Johnβs 65
upset
4 Kansas 78 β Cal Baptist 63
11 South Florida 72 β Louisville 70
3 Michigan State 77 β North Dakota St 62
10 UCF 74 β UCLA 71
2 UConn 86 β Furman 64
4 Kansas 80 β Northern Iowa 70
3 Michigan State 73 β South Florida 66
2 UConn 75 β UCF 67
2 UConn 70 β Michigan State 66
East Champion: Duke
9 Iowa 75 β Clemson 72
12 McNeese 71 β Vanderbilt 67
4 Nebraska 79 β Troy 65
11 VCU 68 β North Carolina 66
3 Illinois 82 β Penn 63
10 Texas A&M 74 β Saint Maryβs 70
2 Houston 81 β Idaho 55
4 Nebraska 75 β McNeese 68
3 Illinois 70 β VCU 65
2 Houston 69 β Texas A&M 63
2 Houston 66 β Illinois 62
South Champion: Houston
9 Utah State 72 β Villanova 69
12 High Point 70 β Wisconsin 68
4 Arkansas 77 β Hawaii 64
11 NC State 74 β BYU 72
3 Gonzaga 83 β Kennesaw St 60
10 Missouri 75 β Miami 71
2 Purdue 86 β Queens 62
4 Arkansas 74 β High Point 65
3 Gonzaga 72 β NC State 66
2 Purdue 80 β Missouri 71
2 Purdue 73 β Gonzaga 70
West Champion: Purdue
8 Georgia 73 β Saint Louis 70
12 Akron 69 β Texas Tech 66
4 Alabama 85 β Hofstra 63
6 Tennessee 74 β SMU/Miami OH 65
3 Virginia 66 β Wright St 58
7 Kentucky 82 β Santa Clara 70
2 Iowa State 79 β Tennessee St 61
4 Alabama 81 β Akron 68
3 Virginia 63 β Tennessee 60
7 Kentucky 75 β Iowa State 72

7 Kentucky 71 β Virginia 66
Midwest Champion: Kentucky
Kentucky 77 β Duke 73
Champion: Kentucky
Why this model likes them:
Final Four
Champion: Kentucky
If you want, I can also show you:
to the best of your abiity, using all research, reports, being bold, picking upsets based on statistics. pick a winner game by game with scores until there is a champion
I went game-by-game through your bracket and used common upset indicators used by analytics models (KenPom-style efficiency gaps, 12-5 upset history, defensive efficiency, tempo mismatch, and tournament experience). I also included a few bold upsets, because historically about 10β12 upsets happen in Round 1 of NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament.
Scores are realistic tournament-style (lower pace, tighter defense).
EAST REGION
Round of 64
1 Duke 82 β Siena 609 TCU 71 β Ohio State 68
12 Northern Iowa 69 β St. Johnβs 65
4 Kansas 78 β Cal Baptist 63
11 South Florida 72 β Louisville 70
3 Michigan State 77 β North Dakota St 62
10 UCF 74 β UCLA 71
2 UConn 86 β Furman 64
Round of 32
1 Duke 76 β TCU 694 Kansas 80 β Northern Iowa 70
3 Michigan State 73 β South Florida 66
2 UConn 75 β UCF 67
Sweet 16
1 Duke 74 β Kansas 722 UConn 70 β Michigan State 66
Elite Eight
1 Duke 77 β UConn 73East Champion: Duke
SOUTH REGION
Round of 64
1 Florida 84 β Lehigh/PVAMU 619 Iowa 75 β Clemson 72
12 McNeese 71 β Vanderbilt 67
4 Nebraska 79 β Troy 65
11 VCU 68 β North Carolina 66
3 Illinois 82 β Penn 63
10 Texas A&M 74 β Saint Maryβs 70
2 Houston 81 β Idaho 55
Round of 32
1 Florida 73 β Iowa 704 Nebraska 75 β McNeese 68
3 Illinois 70 β VCU 65
2 Houston 69 β Texas A&M 63
Sweet 16
1 Florida 71 β Nebraska 672 Houston 66 β Illinois 62
Elite Eight
2 Houston 64 β Florida 61South Champion: Houston
WEST REGION
Round of 64
1 Arizona 88 β Long Island 599 Utah State 72 β Villanova 69
12 High Point 70 β Wisconsin 68
4 Arkansas 77 β Hawaii 64
11 NC State 74 β BYU 72
3 Gonzaga 83 β Kennesaw St 60
10 Missouri 75 β Miami 71
2 Purdue 86 β Queens 62
Round of 32
1 Arizona 79 β Utah State 704 Arkansas 74 β High Point 65
3 Gonzaga 72 β NC State 66
2 Purdue 80 β Missouri 71
Sweet 16
1 Arizona 77 β Arkansas 722 Purdue 73 β Gonzaga 70
Elite Eight
2 Purdue 71 β Arizona 69West Champion: Purdue
MIDWEST REGION
Round of 64
1 Michigan 81 β Howard/UMBC 608 Georgia 73 β Saint Louis 70
12 Akron 69 β Texas Tech 66
4 Alabama 85 β Hofstra 63
6 Tennessee 74 β SMU/Miami OH 65
3 Virginia 66 β Wright St 58
7 Kentucky 82 β Santa Clara 70
2 Iowa State 79 β Tennessee St 61
Round of 32
1 Michigan 72 β Georgia 674 Alabama 81 β Akron 68
3 Virginia 63 β Tennessee 60
7 Kentucky 75 β Iowa State 72
Sweet 16
4 Alabama 79 β Michigan 747 Kentucky 71 β Virginia 66
Elite Eight
7 Kentucky 76 β Alabama 73Midwest Champion: Kentucky
FINAL FOUR
(Indianapolis)Semifinal
Duke 74 β Houston 70Semifinal
Kentucky 78 β Purdue 74NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Champion: Kentucky
Why this model likes them:
- Elite rebounding + transition offense
- Tournament scoring guards
- Path avoids the top defensive teams until late
- Duke
- Houston
- Purdue
- Kentucky
If you want, I can also show you:
- The 10 most likely upset games (with probabilities)
- A βperfect bracket probability optimizedβ version
- Or a super bold chaos bracket that wins big pools.

