DavidKoreshDawg say about masks....

[Captain Ron]

“Wear a mask and it will save football”
”Wear a mask and we can end this thing in 3 weeks”
”My state enacted a mandate and cases are going down, that MUST be it.”

I am not arguing against wearing a mask, only that it seems people some believe it is the only factor in slowing (stopping?) the spread anymore. I have no doubt that in a lab, they can be effective. I have no doubt that there is probably some incremental benefit in wearing one.. is it the David Koresh “promise land“ though?

If I am going to prove that a state mandate works, I should not only see a decrease in my state, but the opposite should be true in a state at a similar stage in the pandemic.

Lets look at Alabama.
View attachment 17170

The case could be made that cases started to decline because of the mandate. So you would expect a continued increase in Georgia since there is no mandate. View attachment 17171
Yet that is not what we see. Cases are also started a decline in a similar manner.

California has had a mandate since June 18 or so. Certainly it must have put the brakes on increased cases just like Alabama right?

View attachment 17172
Nope. They continued to see a sharp increase in cases and are now starting to see a decline.

Of course Florida has no mandate either. We should see the opposite there right?

View attachment 17173

Their chart looks almost identical to Cali’s with less restrictions and no mandate.

But DavidKoreshdawg says we could be done in 3 weeks if we wore a mask.

View attachment 17178

Korea who has many more protocols in place than most and has near 100% mask wear, isn’t over it. Do they ever get to take them off?


What about Japan?

View attachment 17175

Hmmm. It looks like mask alone are not doing it.

Certainly non mask wearing countries like Norway and the Netherlands must be in bad shape eh?
https://summit.news/2020/07/31/neth...te-face-masks-sweden-says-they-are-pointless/

These aren’t 3rd world countries taking this stance by the way.


View attachment 17176View attachment 17177

It seems the most common factor in the declines now and past (sans a lockdown) is a getting to 20% - 25% infection rate. (CDC estimates 10x known cases). Look at the states above and you will see they are at or close to that threshold. Same thing with Sweden and the Netherlands although they have done much less test per capita than we have.

Am I saying don’t wear a mask? Am I arguing against a mandate? No. When someone uses absolutes though, I am going to question it and see what real world data shows (not two guys in a lab) and see if it matches up with the narrative. The data does not show that masks eradicate the virus, although it may slow the spread. If it is effective at all, it also must be effective for the flu, colds etc. just as social distancing would be. What is the threshold for ever taking them off? What is the threshold for ending social distancing and how do did you arrive at that number? Do we not care about flu infections and related deaths too?

There just seems to be a lot of preaching that includes absolutes about the outcome of mask wear with no real specifics about the end game. It appears that the data shows we are going to have to reach a numerical threshold for the decline to begin as real word examples demonstrate. (Including the cruise ship studies). I don’t challenge anyone who wants to wear it in their car, or home, or wherever and I wear it in public. The data just doesn’t show that a mask by itself does what some claim it can do.

 

[ckDOG]

Bump this. Good content.

A lot of good info here and a bunch of takeaways.

There are two big questions I'd like answered when looking at the trends:

1) is the "herd immunity" question getting better answers? I've read as low as 20% and and bad as "we will never get it". That's a **** range - we need better answers by now.

2) is there a way to quantify how much areas are masking vs not masking? It's not fair to assume that no policy means no masking and a policy means 100% compliance. I'd be more concerned with actual behavior than what's papered up.

So when we look at Georgia - should I read into that as support that herd immunity might be closer to 20% or should I read that as Atlantans (ATLiens - shout out, OutKast) are wearing masks because they got freaked out regardless of what the Gov says and are driving the rates back down?

I have no way of answer this bc everything about this damn plague is muddied in **** non contextualized data.

 

[SyonaraStanz]

Really interested in L4Dawg’s, CodeDawg’s, Patdog’s or 57Stratdawg’s responses.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Virus will run its course and burn out... it may take 2 months or 2 years.

 

[dalmuti]

GO HAWKS

 

[fishwater99]

Virus will run its course and burn out... it may take 2 months or 2 years.

That will happen eventually, but the virus also will mutate and become stronger or weaker in the process.

 

[Captain Ron]

A lot of good info here and a bunch of takeaways.

There are two big questions I'd like answered when looking at the trends:

1) is the "herd immunity" question getting better answers? I've read as low as 20% and and bad as "we will never get it". That's a **** range - we need better answers by now.

2) is there a way to quantify how much areas are masking vs not masking? It's not fair to assume that no policy means no masking and a policy means 100% compliance. I'd be more concerned with actual behavior than what's papered up.

So when we look at Georgia - should I read into that as support that herd immunity might be closer to 20% or should I read that as Atlantans (ATLiens - shout out, OutKast) are wearing masks because they got freaked out regardless of what the Gov says and are driving the rates back down?

I have no way of answer this bc everything about this damn plague is muddied in **** non contextualized data.

The latest I am reading says that there might be up to 40% who have T cell immunity. Throw that in with 20/25% exposed, and you are in the mid range of herd immunity projections.

It is hard to say about the masking in and around Atlanta (Fulton County. More stores require it, but it is still much more lax than many of the cities I travel to and the many of the restaurants you would never know it is going on. I have posted the numbers from Norway etc. They are all under 20% masking according to surveys. Do I think Georgians are more likely to wear a mask without a mandate than Cali is without? Nope.

It sure seems like the 20-25% number is falling in line with what the Stanford PHD correctly predicted for other locals.

 

[EngDawg]

I’ve noticed this as well. 20-25% seems to be the magic number when cases start to decline regardless of the policy going on. There is some evidence to suggest that some immunity may be provided by previous exposure to other coronaviruses.

“Importantly, we detected SARS-CoV-2-reactive CD4+ T cells in ∼40%–60% of unexposed individuals, suggesting cross-reactive T cell recognition between circulating ‘common cold’ coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2.”

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30610-3#secsectitle0070

Of course it’s just one study, but it does lend credence to the trends outlined in the data above.


I think the risk of catching COVID will be with us for a while yet, but maybe the days of fearing about our healthcare system being over run are closer to the end than the beginning.

 

[57stratdawg]

We don't have 1 magic bullet to fight against the spread of this virus right now. We have several small techniques that individually help to mitigate the risk of transmission between persons.

Those are things like:

1) Social distancing

2) Washing your hands

3) Wearing a mask

4) Avoiding large crowds

5) Clean and disinfect common surfaces

I would encourage you to familiarize yourself with these items and follow them as much as possible. Here's a link for you: CDC "How to Protect Yourself & Others"

 

[Captain Ron]

We don't have 1 magic bullet to fight against the spread of this virus right now. We have several small techniques that individually help to mitigate the risk of transmission between persons.

Those are things like:

1) Social distancing

2) Washing your hands

3) Wearing a mask

4) Avoiding large crowds

5) Clean and disinfect common surfaces

I would encourage you to familiarize yourself with these items and follow them as much as possible. Here's a link for you: CDC "How to Protect Yourself & Others"

I don’t disagree with you. Those other things have not been the topic of 50 threads. (Who knows if you wash your hands?)
Masks have. I am only responding to those that seem to think it is the magic bullet. “Wear a mask if you want football.” “We could be over this is 3 weeks if you wore a mask.” The data doesn’t support either.

I still have not seen the magic number wrt daily cases that make it ok to not social distance or take off the mask? And do we wear it in flu season since we have suddenly discovered that it does stop a virus? Flu deaths matter too. (Not directed at you)

 

[ckDOG]

If 40 percent are protected by T cells, we are about to be stable

The latest I am reading says that there might be up to 40% who have T cell immunity. Throw that in with 20/25% exposed, and you are in the mid range of herd immunity projections.

It is hard to say about the masking in and around Atlanta (Fulton County. More stores require it, but it is still much more lax than many of the cities I travel to and the many of the restaurants you would never know it is going on. I have posted the numbers from Norway etc. They are all under 20% masking according to surveys. Do I think Georgians are more likely to wear a mask without a mandate than Cali is without? Nope.

It sure seems like the 20-25% number is falling in line with what the Stanford PHD correctly predicted for other locals.

I hope that's the case. It makes sense that would be the case seeing low antibody estimates in areas that were hit hard but doing well now (NYC, Italy). There's something else going on than just the antibody observations.

 

[Crazy Cotton]

Another possibility is that as cases in a locality spike, people are more likely to conform to safety protocols, like mask wearing. When cases come down, people relax, bars open, and cases spike again (e.g. Japan, Korea, USA). it isn't accurate to equate mask mandate with Mask wearing. In the US, there's a significant percentage of the population who'll refuse to do something simply because the government told them to do it. in Sweden, on the other hand, there's a lot more trust in government and lots more compliance - social distancing for example, was recommended and generally followed much better than in other places.

I think I must have read the same thing about possible partial immunity already being in place with some, perhaps from the common cold, viral pneumonia vaccines, and other vaccines. That seems to be a possible explanation for the near 40% of people who test positive but are asymptomatic, and might also explain the age effects (farther from having the infection or vaccine, less the partial immunity. Would also help explain the regional differences in severity of illness versus infection rates. If that turns out to be true, then herd immunity would be a lot closer to achievable.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

Since this seems to be the reason and fact based thread of the day. Below is an article I read yesterday, it's the best breakdown I have seen so far. It's not optimistic or pessimistic in my opinion... Just fact based.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/08/reasons-for-covid-19-optimism-on-t-cells-and-herd-immunity.html

Synopsis

T Cells

The T Cells don't give immunity, they just keep you from getting seriously ill... Which makes sense. They speed up the response.

Here's a quote from the article:

"...a cross-reactive T-cell response wouldn’t prevent infection, but would probably mean a faster immune response, a shorter period of infection, and a “massively” reduced risk of severe illness — meaning, he guessed, that somewhere between a third and three-quarters of the population carried into the epidemic significant protection against its scariest outcomes." -Francis Balloux University College of London’s Genetics Institute


Herd Immunity

The gist was this... It's likely true herd immunity is really high, but it appears there becomes an "effective herd immunity" in the 20-35% range. The virus transmission rate slows down at that point and distancing, masks, and hygiene contribute as well. We know full herd immunity is likely higher in many places. There's a city in Peru with 90% antibodies, 60% or so in the major province in Italy that was hit early, over 50% in Delhi slums in India... But these are places that were hit before they new what was going or live in a world where distancing and hygiene stand no chance.

Quote from article:

"...you would not expect a disease to spread in a purely exponential way until the point of herd immunity, at which time the spread would suddenly stop. Instead, you would expect that growth to slow as more people in the community were exposed to the disease, with most of them emerging relatively quickly with some immune response. Add to that the effects of even modest, commonplace protections — intuitive social distancing, some amount of mask-wearing — and you could expect to get an infection curve that tapers off well shy of 60 percent exposure."


My own thoughts. Herd immunity should be driven down by the actual number of people going out in public vs the number staying "safer at home." So for simplicity sake if half the population is never going out and half is out every day.... 20-35% would be more like 40-70% effectively.


Now here's one more article about masks. Interesting and makes sense. Even more important than stopping you from getting the virus, it prevents you from getting a high dose. The Tyson chicken and seafood plant was very interesting. Everyone wearing masks didn't prevent the virus from transmission, but 95% were asymptomatic.


https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/07/418181/one-more-reason-wear-mask-youll-get-less-sick-covid-19


Quote from article

In February, one of the first outbreaks of COVID-19 outside of China occurred on the Diamond Princess cruise ship docked in Yokohama, Japan. Of the 634 people on board who tested positive, about 18 percent of infections were asymptomatic. In March, an Argentinian cruise ship found itself in a similar predicament, but of the 128 people on board who eventually tested positive, 81 percent were asymptomatic.

A key difference, Gandhi noted, was that on the Argentinian ship, surgical masks were issued to all passengers and N95 masks to all staff as soon as the first passenger became sick.


I hope everyone reads both of these articles I posted.

 

[Captain Ron]

And then this.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/08/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-covid/

 

[WilCoDawg]

Mask mandates work except when they don’t.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Japan is some mask wearing son of a guns and they are spiking. I wonder what the real numbers are in China?

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Virus will run its course and burn out... it may take 2 months or 2 years.

Give time for the next one to escape China or "escape China" and go global.

 

[Captain Ron]

This isn’t my math so take it for what it is worth, but it seems like the 20-25% number has some some support.

I've read many studies about the 20% herd immunity levels and it appears we are there in most areas.


HAVE WE HIT HERD IMMUNITY?


I've been looking at GA's plummeting cases and wondering what happened. Then I looked at the case total: 209,000.


The CDC said there are 10 undetected cases for every 1 positive test... that's 2,090,000 cases for GA.


Some epidemiologists are estimating herd immunity kicks in after 20-30% of the population is infected (because 40-60% have innate t-cell immunity from similarity to other coronaviruses) ...


2,090,000 cases in a population of 10,600,000 people is 19.7%. Almost 20%.


So I thought about looking at a few other states and counties to see where they might be at.
____
*GA: Steep case curve dropped precipitously and steep death curve leveled off July 11-15 when confirmed positives hit 150,000. 150k*10/10.6M = 14%. Almost a month later, sure enough, we're at 209k, for 209k*10/10.6M = 19.7%.


*Fulton County: Steep case & death curves dropped sharply July 11-15, at 15%. Currently at 19.6%.


It's a little harder for other states because I can't find their cases by "date of occurrence," only by date of report. For GA, the latter graph is far, far less accurate for any dates prior to two weeks ago. I don't know about other states.


*FL: A steep case curve leveled off at 17%.A steep death curve leveled off at 22%. Currently at 24%.


*TX: Steep death curve leveled off & then began to drop at 15.4%. Steep case curve leveled off at 10.5%, but hasn't begun to drop. Because TX is so big AND has big spaces between its population centers, it's kind of like looking at the US as a whole... useless for this purpose. It's a bunch of different relatively isolated entire populations, and I'd guess that if I went one big city at a time, I might see steep curves ending at % closer to 20%, and some milder ones at way below 20%. I suspect TX is going to have a few more smaller flares before a steep drop in cases, but not many more. Currently at 17%.


*AZ: Steep case growth flattened at 11.6% and is now going down. Steep death growth flattened at 17% and is now going down. Currently at 25.4%.


*CA: Moderate case growth peaked at 11.5%. Moderate death curve hasn't peaked or flattened. Currently at 13.7%. Is this why CA, no matter how long it's been locked down, can't seem to stop the epidemic? Because if you have a decent size population, it's going to spread until it hits herd immunity, no matter what?


*LA County: Cases peaked to sharp decrease at 11.5%. Deaths peaked and decreased at 14.5%. Currently at 20%. I wonder if LA County is done?


*Orange County CA: Curves haven't peaked yet, and currently only at 12% of the population estimated infected.
____
Now spot-checking some other states that haven't had big growth recently, but had big outbreaks in March.


*NY: Steep case & death curves leveled off around April 7. I don't have to guess with them, because they did extensive serological studies. They were at 21% by mid-April. (Because their outbreak was before anyone was testing well, it's easy to guess that their ratio of true cases to positive tests was a lot higher than 10:1.)


*MA: 17.5%.


*NJ: 21.5%


*RI: 18% (very mild case increase lately)
____
Now spot-checking some states that haven't had giant outbreaks at any point ... hard to find because most random states I've checked HAVE had a LOT of growth recently, which I didn't realize, because media seems to be reporting only on FL, GA, AZ, & TX.


*WA: mild recent growth in cases & deaths, currently at 8%.


*MO: Wild growth in cases recently but no real increase in deaths yet. Currently at 9.5%.


*MI: Moderate growth in cases recently, no growth in deaths. Currently at 9.5%.
____
These are only a few data points, since I don't have time to do all 50 states, all large counties, and all developed nations, but they *seem* to show a correlation between strength of outbreaks and infection %, but with a cap of around 20-25%. This is the same threshold where infection stopped on the Diamond Princess cruise ship (where occupants were trapped for two months), the USS Theodore Roosevelt, foreign evacuees out of Wuhan in late January, & Sweden.


I can make a hypothesis that, whether a state has an outbreak early, late, or gradually over time, and no matter what measures they do or don't take, everything is heading toward 20-30%, but since there's no way to test it in a controlled environment (although the two ships were pretty close!), only time will tell. If so, we'd see:


*GA, Fulton, FL, AZ, LA County, NY, MA, NJ, & RI done. They basically will have only mild case/death increases from here on out.


*TX is close to done.


*CA, Orange County CA, WA, MO, & MI aren't done, and will continue to have increases in cases & deaths for a long time to come, unless they have a sharp increase that gets it over with quickly.

 

[Cooterpoot]

Mask mandates work except when they don’t.

You mean when people don't wear them or wear gaiters, bandannas, or masks with vents that don't work.

 

[MeridianDog]

Is there any reported data available on prisons (a restricted/isolated society)?

 

[engie]

All in line with what I've been reading and saying for months now.

This week is absolutely huge for the prospect of college sports in the south. If it goes as well as last week did across the south in terms of new infections declining and this threshold/hypothesis being tested and proving itself true again, it's going to be game on.

The thing is -- the formula for herd immunity is a simple one. And the slower the r0, the lower that number is. Obviously the r0 is the variable here that even in places that essentially eradicate the virus for short periods of time through stringent testing(NZ, SK, Japan), still has the ability to flare up.

We are very close to done with this thing as a real threat to our hospitals and institutions all across the south right now. Of course, you won't read about it on the news because they need this to remain a worst case scenario into November.

 

[CochiseCowbell]

Wait, so my M over S bandanna doesn't work?

I've stated before that I hate the damn things, and I'm not positive if it helps me or not, but I'll wear it if it there's a chance it helps others. I can suck it up for the short amount of time that I'm actually indoors in public. I'm assuming that no masks work like the N96, or whatever it was. However, I thought that all these others were at least some kind of barrier.

Basically, I'm now confused again on the mask thing.

 

[Cooterpoot]

Wait, so my M over S bandanna doesn't work?

I've stated before that I hate the damn things, and I'm not positive if it helps me or not, but I'll wear it if it there's a chance it helps others. I can suck it up for the short amount of time that I'm actually indoors in public. I'm assuming that no masks work like the N96, or whatever it was. However, I thought that all these others were at least some kind of barrier.

Basically, I'm now confused again on the mask thing.

The Duke study says gaiters, vented masks. and bandannas are worse than wearing nothing. They breakdown the particles to smaller particles that hang in the air longer.

 

[ckDOG]

The 10x and 20% tell a nice story

Things change, but right now it's making a lot of sense. Throw one more example in there for Shelby County / Memphis metro

Shelby county: 24k cases x 10 / 940k = 25.5%. We appear to be peaking right now. I expect to see that to continue if this theory holds water.

Memphis Metro: 33k cases x 10 / 1.3M = 25.4%

I'll 100% buy in if we continue to see the trend down as the school population is circulating.

Hopefully what this all means is that we can be less on edge. Continue to wear masks (helps keep R0/herd immunity lower with less distancing), open more things up, keep hospitals at manageable census, and get by until the vaccines are ready December/early 2021. Still some time to go before we get back to normalish but that's a light at the end of the tunnel we desperately need right now.

 

[Captain Ron]

Things change, but right now it's making a lot of sense. Throw one more example in there for Shelby County / Memphis metro

Shelby county: 24k cases x 10 / 940k = 25.5%. We appear to be peaking right now. I expect to see that to continue if this theory holds water.

Memphis Metro: 33k cases x 10 / 1.3M = 25.4%

I'll 100% buy in if we continue to see the trend down as the school population is circulating.

Hopefully what this all means is that we can be less on edge. Continue to wear masks (helps keep R0/herd immunity lower with less distancing), open more things up, keep hospitals at manageable census, and get by until the vaccines are ready December/early 2021. Still some time to go before we get back to normalish but that's a light at the end of the tunnel we desperately need right now.

I agree with most of your points. Certainly there is a lot of wiggle room in the multiplier. The higher percentage of a population tested, (including antibodies) the lower the multiplier as you would have a much larger sample size, at least at that moment in time. So for a fair comparison, one would also need to compare testing rates /100000 to see where they really are wrt to 25%. (If everyone is tested, then you certainly couldn’t apply a 10-1 multiplier)

And just like that, a case pops up out of nowhere in NZ and they are partially locking down again. If we don’t get a vaccine, how long I wonder will they keep doing this and isolate themselves from the world?

https://time.com/5878299/new-zealand-covid-auckland-cases/

 

[ckDOG]

Yeah the 10x is a swag for sure

I agree with most of your points. Certainly there is a lot of wiggle room in the multiplier. The higher percentage of a population tested, (including antibodies) the lower the multiplier as you would have a much larger sample size, at least at that moment in time. So for a fair comparison, one would also need to compare testing rates /100000 to see where they really are wrt to 25%. (If everyone is tested, then you certainly couldn’t apply a 10-1 multiplier)

And just like that, a case pops up out of nowhere in NZ and they are partially locking down again. If we don’t get a vaccine, how long I wonder will they keep doing this and isolate themselves from the world?

https://time.com/5878299/new-zealand-covid-auckland-cases/

Probably a good number earlier in the case curve when testing was garbage. Less today with the increased prevalence of testing. Even if you multiplied in a 5-7 range, we are getting close to those 20% numbers.

 

[Drebin]

The Duke study says gaiters, vented masks. and bandannas are worse than wearing nothing. They breakdown the particles to smaller particles that hang in the air longer.

This can't be true. I read here that there's no scientific evidence needed....that it's common sense for anyone to understand that face coverings help control the spread. In fact, I seem to recall being called an idiot because I happened to wonder out loud why case counts continued to be a problem in some places where there have been mask mandates for a while.

 

[thekimmer]

Herd immunity is primarily predicted by the R0 value for the infectious agent. The higher the R0 the higher the percentage of immunity required to achieve herd immunity.

For example: Measles has a R0 of about 12-18 Herd immunity threshold is about 83-94%. H1N1 had an R0 of about 1.6 Herd immunity threshold was calculated at about 40%

The R0 for COVID is estimated to be about 2-3 which would prolly require a threshold of about 50-60% for herd immunity.

Not an exact science though but I'd say 20-25% is way low.

 

[Dawgzilla]

I'm not sure any experts ever claimed that wearing masks were the magic bullet that would end the virus. The masks are said to significantly decrease the wearer's chances of spreading the virus to others. The research I was reading back in May estimated that if 80% of the population would wear masks, along with all of the other suggested guidelines, then we would be able to get the virus under control within a matter of weeks. This was not media hype, or "Coronabros" trying to control people, these were medical researchers using the best available evidence at the time and utilizing multiple computer models.

I think that research was making two basic assumptions: 1) that people wearing masks would wear them properly; and 2) that the infectious dose of novel coronavirus was similar to the flu, i.e., about 1,000 viral particles. Both of those assumptions may have been wrong, particularly the second. In fact, it is a little disturbing that we still don't know how many viral particles it takes to get one sick.

Also, I think it is very difficult to compare the results of different regions, because there are so many other other variables at play outside of mask usage. In Georgia, for example while there has not been a State mask mandate, all of the major population centers have either mandated masks or strongly recommended them. Although the local mandates might not be enforceable, they are being followed for the most part, and almost all private businesses are requiring masks for people to enter.

I'm sure there are a number of other variables for every location you posted.

OTOH, I am certainly willing to admit the research I was relying upon 3 months ago may not be bulletproof.

 

[Cooterpoot]

This can't be true. I read here that there's no scientific evidence needed....that it's common sense for anyone to understand that face coverings help control the spread. In fact, I seem to recall being called an idiot because I happened to wonder out loud why case counts continued to be a problem in some places where there have been mask mandates for a while.

I was looking to buy a gaiter to wear on the sidelines this fall until I read that study. Basically, it's got to be a multilayer or thicker mask to work. Certainly does explain a lot.

 

[Captain Ron]

Herd immunity is primarily predicted by the R0 value for the infectious agent. The higher the R0 the higher the percentage of immunity required to achieve herd immunity.

For example: Measles has a R0 of about 12-18 Herd immunity threshold is about 83-94%. H1N1 had an R0 of about 1.6 Herd immunity threshold was calculated at about 40%

The R0 for COVID is estimated to be about 2-3 which would prolly require a threshold of about 50-60% for herd immunity.

Not an exact science though but I'd say 20-25% is way low.

Just to be clear, the 20-25% is added the 40% or so who they are now estimating have T cell immunity. That gets you in the 60% to 70% range and may be one factor in countries with decreasing cases that also have very lax social distancing etc.

 

[L4Dawg]

The Duke study says gaiters, vented masks. and bandannas are worse than wearing nothing. They breakdown the particles to smaller particles that hang in the air longer.

What the study actually said was the material matters. If it's made out of stretchy spandex then it's worse. If its a normal cotton fiber then its better. We have known about vented mask for a while, they protect you, but make your spread if you are infected worse.

 

[engie]

Herd immunity is primarily predicted by the R0 value for the infectious agent. The higher the R0 the higher the percentage of immunity required to achieve herd immunity.

For example: Measles has a R0 of about 12-18 Herd immunity threshold is about 83-94%. H1N1 had an R0 of about 1.6 Herd immunity threshold was calculated at about 40%

The R0 for COVID is estimated to be about 2-3 which would prolly require a threshold of about 50-60% for herd immunity.

Not an exact science though but I'd say 20-25% is way low.

~ 40% of everyone are showing T Cells that fight off COVID. And it doesn't accelerate up to the immunity threshold, it's a bell curve... Hence the slowing but not total eradication at 20-30%...

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

https://forums.sixpackspeak.com/sho...s-new-daily-case-record-15-300&highlight=cell

Some of us have been preaching the importance of T cell immunity for a while now. It has been largely ignored in the news. Good to see that it’s FINALLY starting to get reported on in the mainstream media. Because anyone who looks at the data can see the impact of built in immunity that many, many people already have.

This is why people claiming herd immunity to be 70% were absolutely insane. I thought a month ago it could be as low as 15-20%. It’s probably more like 25%, and we are getting closer and closer to that here in MS and the rest of the south. Once most states hit confirmed infections of 2-2.5% (which in reality is probably more like 20% infected because of how many people have this never know and don’t get tested), you see new cases begin to fall. The virus is running its course, just like any other virus has to.

Since the end of July, the 7 day moving average of new cases in MS has decreased by 32%. That’s great news. Hopefully it continues.

 

[Cooterpoot]

What the study actually said was the material matters. If it's made out of stretchy spandex then it's worse. If its a normal cotton fiber then its better. We have known about vented mask for a while, they protect you, but make your spread if you are infected worse.

We know you believe you know everything. But you aren't going to find many gaiters that aren't polyester (dry fit material). We've all known about the vented masks. Bandannas are the redneck answer to not liking like a *****.
Nothing you said changes the fact they don't work, which was the reason for me stating so.
Move along.

 

[tebmsu97]

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Today's update from Louisiana. The bit of important info to add is bars were closed at the same time the mask mandate was issued. No other changes to phase II were made. I would say, based on my very limited moving around, we are probably at about 90% compliance with mask usage.

https://ldh.la.gov/Coronavirus/

(tried to paste image of the graph, but apparently my message board skills suck)

 

[Dawgzilla]

Not speaking for L4, but I don't think there was any problem at all with your post. It was Drebin's apparent followup assumption that the study was disparaging the use of all masks.

 

[engie]

Louisiana had 1164 today on a 7 day rolling average(as of yesterday) of 1339. This day last week was at 1873(Tuesday's reports are generally a high number in LA). It's falling and falling fast there. Almost as fast as it is here.

Georgia had a bad day today, ~ 200 cases over their 7 day average. They seem to be prettymuch still on plateau there. Should be within a week or so of the same percentage numbers that saw the rest of us really drop off though.

 

[idog]

masks won't work unless nearly everyone wears them. if it appears that a mask mandate isn't working it is most likely because people aren't wearing masks. i saw hundreds of people lined up like sardines without masks on at a water park this weekend. now, the STD's and urine in the water may very well kill every virus particle in the facility but that's another topic.