You have a hard time believing a model that was right about the game in question? I would have loved to see his model against your gut on Kentucky's win-loss record last year. Did you have Kentucky winning 10 games?
ETA: I believe Florida last year was a -1 coach effect because we had closed the gap on Florida's recruiting and were playing at home. Bartoo doesn't include consolation bowl games in his data because they skew the numbers. Someone can correct me, but I think Moorhead's +/- is as follows:
2018 Florida (-)
2018 Auburn (+)
2018 A&M (+)
2018 @ Ole Miss (+)
2019 Kansas State (-)
UK won 7 games in 2017, we completely dominated them, we returned almost the entire defense that was a top 25, and we returned almost everyone on an offense that was top 40.
Other than the game being at UK, there shouldn't have been any metrics that would show us losing. There was a reason that we were almost a TD favorite.
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