Dave Bartoo on Moorhead

[Cap'n Geech]

Did anyone catch Dave Bartoo on Out of Bounds today? He had an interesting outsider's perspective on Moorhead's performance after 20 games. It wasn't an extreme take on either end of the spectrum, but it was informed by the numbers he uses for Coach Effect. I would be interested to see the numbers/data people on this board are using to say that Moorhead is an absolute failure to date and should be fired after this season or next.

ETA: I notice no one is offering any data to support their "Moorhead is a bust" hypothesis. So are we just going with y'all's gut? Or do y'all prefer to call it the "eye test"? I feel good about our athletics programs as long as we're making decisions based on the fanbase's gut.*

 

[Maroon Eagle]

What does he think?

 

[The Situation]

Did anyone catch Dave Bartoo on Out of Bounds today? He had an interesting outsider's perspective on Moorhead's performance after 20 games. It wasn't an extreme take on either end of the spectrum, but it was informed by the numbers he uses for Coach Effect. I would be interested to see the numbers/data people on this board are using to say that Moorhead is an absolute failure to date and should be fired after this season or next.

Bartoo is very underrated. I don't exactly trust his coaching effect numbers, but just like any stat, you can use them to get general trends, combined with other metrics.

 

[CapDawg.sixpack]

Thanks for telling us what Bartoo said about him

 

[Seinfeld]

Didn’t see that, but I did see that Chase Edmonds(NFL running back with 3TDs last weekend) recently called Moorhead an offensive genius

I think he played for Moorhead at Fordham, and he said that he was the best coach he ever had

 

[8dog]

He said moorhead is +1 in coaching effect. In other words he has won net one more game than his model says he should have. Kansas st -1 and aub/tamu (2018) +2

the problem is his model relies heavily on recruiting and doesnt account for the fact tennessee is horrible and played their backup qb they dont want throwing the ball at all. Or how actually good any team is on the schedule It also just doesnt examine when a coach plainly does a poor job regardless of expectation or outcome. Like the offense in the florida and lsu game last year. Those games tell us a lot but register as status quo on his end

then he talks about how hard our job is

 

[RPOdawg]

What does he think?

He basically said Moorhead is a game or two better according to his data. I think he said +1.5 coach affect. He said the ole miss and MSU jobs were brutal and that both schools basically struck gold with Mullen and Freeze.’He went on to say how it took Dabo a few years at Clemson to figure it all
out and that our fans really need to take a chill pill and lower the expectations and to give the man time to get his recruits in.

 

[The Situation]

He said moorhead is +1 in coaching effect. In other words he has won net one more game than his model says he should have. Kansas st -1 and aub/tamu (2018) +2

the problem is his model relies heavily on recruiting and doesnt account for the fact tennessee is horrible and played their backup qb they dont want throwing the ball at all. Or how actually good any team is on the schedule It also just doesnt examine when a coach plainly does a poor job regardless of expectation. Like the offense in the florida and lsu game last year. Those games tell us a lot but register as status quo on his end

then he talks about how hard our job is

Recruiting is the most important part of college sports. It should rely heavily on that.

 

[8dog]

It is important. But if those recruits field a terrible team and joe moorhead loses to it, he shouldnt get a pass. Especially scoring only ten points against a defense giving up 35 a game.

So saying his coach effect is +1 is
insanely misleading about the job he is doing.

 

[sandwolf.sixpack]

Recruiting is the most important part of college sports. It should rely heavily on that.

I agree, but it also should account for players like Sweat and Abram who were 3 stars when we signed them and for schools like Tennessee that recruit well but are a complete dumpster fire. The fact that Moorhead's loss in Knoxville doesn't count against him pretty much invalidates his ranking in my opinion.

 

[Duke Humphrey]

Thats what all the national media types want us to think.... "just wait and take a chill pill." I am not mad we lost to LSU or Auburn, didnt ever expect those two games as a W. But showing a pulse against Auburn? Yea. And, yes, I did expect to be Tennessee and Kansas State. That is not too much to ask.

 

[Trojanbulldog19]

i don't listen much to Bartoo anymore after he said there was no chance we beat lsu in 2017 because of his coaching effect numbers. Then we ran them off the field. He has some good numbers for analytics but it's based way too much on recruiting. The problem with that is that their on recruiting busts all over the field and doesn't take in to account enough of current team performance with those recruits. He also put way to much weight in to his coordinator effect.

 

[StillTbonewannabe]

He said moorhead is +1 in coaching effect. In other words he has won net one more game than his model says he should have. Kansas st -1 and aub/tamu (2018) +2

the problem is his model relies heavily on recruiting and doesnt account for the fact tennessee is horrible and played their backup qb they dont want throwing the ball at all. Or how actually good any team is on the schedule It also just doesnt examine when a coach plainly does a poor job regardless of expectation or outcome. Like the offense in the florida and lsu game last year. Those games tell us a lot but register as status quo on his end

then he talks about how hard our job is

I have a hard time believing any model had us losing at UK last year. We returned a 9 win team and had a QB and RB returning with 2,000 yards rushing to go with that defense. I would also throw UF and Iowa in that same boat. We were favored in all of those games by Vegas also. Of course analytics don't take into account what you see firsthand at UT. UT had 7 sacks in our game and right now only have 17 for the entire year. When you get dominated on both LOS when UT couldn't do that to GA State then you have big problems. That doesn't even take into consideration that we were coming off a bye week and playing the 11 am game. We had every single advantage you could have and still looked like hot garbage.

 

[8dog]

Agree. He does not count bowl games. And i agree with that.

 

[The Situation]

i don't listen much to Bartoo anymore after he said there was no chance we beat lsu in 2017 because of his coaching effect numbers. Then we ran them off the field. He has some good numbers for analytics but it's based way too much on recruiting. The problem with that is that their on recruiting busts all over the field and doesn't take in to account enough of current team performance with those recruits. He also put way to much weight in to his coordinator effect.

I think the best idea would be to refine recruiting rankings, not to rely less on recruiting rankings.

I think quarterback should probably be weighted more, and they most certainly should use players currently on the roster, rather than the ranking when they signed. That is a lot of work for someone.

 

[Trojanbulldog19]

seems like there would be good money it. but everyone these days has their "analytics" and unless they were a stats or a math major with also a lot of football experience i wouldn't put much weight in to. The math or stats major may not just understand the intangibles of a football game match up and a team. It's hard to quantify that and make a metric. You have add in a development factor as well.

 

[Cap'n Geech]

You have a hard time believing a model that was right about the game in question? I would have loved to see his model against your gut on Kentucky's win-loss record last year. Did you have Kentucky winning 10 games?

ETA: I believe Florida last year was a -1 coach effect because we had closed the gap on Florida's recruiting and were playing at home. Bartoo doesn't include consolation bowl games in his data because they skew the numbers. Someone can correct me, but I think Moorhead's +/- is as follows:
2018 Florida (-)
2018 Auburn (+)
2018 A&M (+)
2018 @ Ole Miss (+)
2019 Kansas State (-)

 

[Strike.sixpack]

He basically said Moorhead is a game or two better according to his data. I think he said +1.5 coach affect. He said the ole miss and MSU jobs were brutal and that both schools basically struck gold with Mullen and Freeze.’He went on to say how it took Dabo a few years at Clemson to figure it all
out and that our fans really need to take a chill pill and lower the expectations and to give the man time to get his recruits in.

Yeah Dabo has one year that was down, his second he was 6-7. But you could positives and some of his changes. They lost by 3 to national champ Auburn on the road. Lost by 3 to 17 FSU, on the road. All of his losses were to teams with winning records and all but USCe were close games and that game was 29-7 and beat 2 ranked teams at the time. No UT type losses, never gave up more than 31 and 30 for just those 2 games all season. Had a Top 15 defense that year...just a different type of 6-6 season than what we may experience...if we get to 6 wins

 

[Cap'n Geech]

I don't recall what he said in 2017, but I can't imagine him saying LSU would beat us because of coach effect. I would assume he would have picked LSU because of talent. Mullen has a great coach effect score.

 

[8dog]

Its a model that supports his predictions. Coach is a part of the matrix that he uses for the model. He then generates coach effect based on how a team does vs what the model says the team should have done

or at least i think thats how it works

 

[Cap'n Geech]

In 2017 LSU was the 6th most talented team in the country according to 247. State was the 25th most talented team. (I don't know what recruiting data Bartoo uses.) We were playing at home. I would assume Mullen had a better coach effect score than Orgeron. If he picked LSU I would assume it was because his model had the talent gap overcoming the home field and coaching advantage. The model didn't predict the winner of this particular game. His model is designed to be right more than it's wrong over many games. You can take any model and pick out games, even blowouts, in which the model didn't pick the winner.

 

[8dog]

Om as a +1 is ridiculous. Auburn too

 

[Cap'n Geech]

What is that based on? Do you have a competing model that says that's ridiculous? I'd love to see it if you can share.

 

[8dog]

Beating a team that played its true freshman backup qb and had the worst defense in the sec shouldnt be a plus. I dont know why i would need a model for that.

auburn was 7-5. We played them at home. I dont get how that is a plus but maybe someone can explain it me

i fee like 100 coaches in america could have taken our team last year and won those games

 

[TrapGame.sixpack]

Bartoo is a condescending douche bucket. His whole take was "MSU has always been crap. Mullen was our Bear Bryant. Of course there's going to be a drop off with a new coach." Never once did he visit any stats congruent to our current ineptitude on offense. Nor did he venture an educated summation to our current lack of discipline and soft athletic demeanor.

 

[Drebin]

Recruiting is the most important part of college sports. It should rely heavily on that.

It's not the most important part, and Mullen proved that. Recruiting well helps, but you can overcome it.

Our margin for error is much smaller than most, so mistakes that we make on the sideline or during the course of the game tend to be more impactful, particularly unforced or self-inflicted mistakes. His formula doesn't account for that, and that is the biggest reason we're where we are today. Therefore, Bartoo's formula is ********.

 

[Shamoan]

my very scientific model has Moorhead as a -20,000,000 coaching effect.

 

[Cap'n Geech]

There are few programs that have win-loss records that significantly diverge from team talent composites (recruiting rankings). One example is Kansas State under Bill Snyder. They consistently beat teams with better talent on paper. Other than a few programs like that, you can look here and have a pretty good idea who is going to win this weekend.

The dirty little secret among State fans: Mullen wasn't bad at recruiting.

Bartoo also explains range-bound recruiting. The idea is that regardless of coach, most schools recruit within a fairly narrow range. Mullen improved our team talent ranking ~10 spots according to most recruiting sites. That is a huge impact on talent that most State fans appear to not understand. Again, the data says one thing, but the intuition of a lot of State fans says another.

 

[Rupert Jenkins]

To the beat of my memory, and stats will reflect it also, we have always been crap. Dan had the most successful run of any coach we have had since 1941. And he did not average 8 wins a season. Jackie was not successful except 2 years. Pretty special in 98 and 99. His overall record was break even. JoeMo is off to a turtle pace but maybe he will pull it together. I was disappointed last year but with a complete regime change some drop off is expected I suppose. This year has been a dumpster fire in every way. Coaching changes, suspension, QB instability, no DT, too many freshmen playing. I'm already looking forward to next year for crying out loud.

 

[8dog]

Sherrill won 7,7, and 8 reg season games in 91,92, and 94. Those were 11 game seasons. We played TX twice.

 

[The Situation]

It's not the most important part, and Mullen proved that. Recruiting well helps, but you can overcome it.

Our margin for error is much smaller than most, so mistakes that we make on the sideline or during the course of the game tend to be more impactful, particularly unforced or self-inflicted mistakes. His formula doesn't account for that, and that is the biggest reason we're where we are today. Therefore, Bartoo's formula is ********.

Mullen is a perfect example of why recruiting is so important. It held him back badly.

 

[thatsbaseball]

Did you go to State ?

 

[Trojanbulldog19]

Actually I have posted lots of stats and the product on the field of how they have won and lost and who they won and lost to. Lots of others have posted this also.

 

[Trojanbulldog19]

He said LSU’s coordinators were too good and the recruiting was too good that state didn’t have a shot.

 

[ColoradoDawg]

I jumped off the "defend Moorehead" wagon after Tennessee, but if we make it to 6-6 this season I'll give him a pass. It' s just that I have seen very little to this point in the season to suggest we will make 6-6.

It's been a **** show of a season and a lot of it isn't even his fault, so I am reluctant to get on too high of a horse when criticizing him. He gets one more year regardless.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

Yeah but isn’t our margin for error smaller because of our lack of talent? So could you not say that recruiting would increase our margin for error?

 

[Original48]

my very scientific model has Moorhead as a -20,000,000 coaching effect.

Mine as well. Negative 5 million per loss for every NFL starter (4) you inherited.

 

[Rupert Jenkins]

Are you saying that's impressive 8dog ? He did win the west in 98 and won 10 games in 99 I think it was. He had a few good years. Dan had a few good years. That's pretty spread out. Jackie won the west one time. Dan never did. Neither ever won sn SEC title. Jackie did not have an overall winning record for his time at State. In between those two guys and before Jackie it was horrible. Correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[DAWGS1.sixpack]

I don’t have to have a matrix, a model or any spreadsheet or recruiting ranking to see that we should have beat UF and Iowa last year.
I’ll give up UK just bc they were a pretty good team and the O couldn’t keep drives going to keep our D off the field.
This year, K St is inexcusable and I MAY even concede UT 2 weeks afterwards bc they have gotten MUCH BETTER and it started against UGA.
Had we started Shrader, we may have had a punchers chance. The OL KILLED us that game however as did ST
We should have at minimum 3 more wins in the JOMO era

 

[8dog]

Im saying those years were successful. You said he was only successful two
years. Thats wrong. We won as many games in 94 as we did in 98. Give me jackies first ten years all day. The game just got away from
him. Two of our 3 coaches before moorhead showed us we can win. And croom should have never been hired. He would have failed anywhere