Dak & Dallas

[She Mate Me]

My predictions are often terrible, but sometimes outstandingly prescient (I'll regurgitate my call on the inevitable firing of Stans and the years in the desert it would lead to if needed).

With that out of the way, I've watched the first three Dallas games intently and I believe this team is a real threat to win it all this year. They have all the pieces on offense, a rapidly improving D and a QB who we all know just improves himself every single year.

I think Dak is very aware this is the year he needs to take it to the next level and it's obvious he is prepared for that level. Should be a lot of fun to watch.

 

[PineGroveBully]

If McCarthy will stay the 17 out of the way. Let Kellen continue to call plays, Dan Quinn run the D, Dak can handle the rest. I don’t know that they could beat the Rams if they’re clicking but they may not have to. McCarthy needs to just go back to floating over golf tournaments and other sporting events or whatever scrap heap Jerruh pulled him out of.

 

[00Dawg]

To play for it all, the need to do two things they can control.

1. Convince McCarthy to let someone else handle clock management. The end of the first half last night was Leach-esque.
2. Keep showing Zeke that Pollard will get the carries if he doesn’t perform. Elliott was running with more effort after Tony showed he was happy to take the job. Zeke has definitely lost a step, but he’s still really, really good when he gives max effort.

Past that, it’s about staying healthy. Their D is light years better now, and their O with Collins and Gallup back is near the top of the league.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

I’m bullish, too. I have them top-4 in the NFL, which I think is higher than most folks.

 

[SpeckTaker]

What does DamnitDog predict?

 

[PearlRiverCoDawg]

What does DamnitDog predict?

Lol!

 

[MSUDC11]

I think they have a very good team and there’s no excuse for them to not win that division assuming Dak stays healthy, but I also kind of expect McCarthy to screw it up eventually. This wreaks of a good team that will have a stupid loss in the Playoffs.

 

[Bulldog Bruce]

The important thing for Dallas is with Parsons they have a guy that can stay with any of the quarterbacks that can run. I know Hurts might not be as fast as Lamar Jackson, but he is close.

My opinion of Kellen Moore is he is great between the 10s. His play calling inside the 10 leaves much to be desired. With those two RBs and that TE and all those receivers it should not be as hard as they make it over the past few years. Those early calls were horrific. He doesn't present enough options for Dak in the plays called.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Their defense is not dependable.

Pollard is giving them something the other team will find hard to defend other than just Zeke.

They need to stay healthy and they will be a good team with Dak at the lead but they something else to put them over the first rounds of the playoffs.

If Jerry stays for focused on ARK and leaves them alone they could go far but they need defensive depth.

 

[PineGroveBully]

They need to roll Dak out more when they get inside the 10. Dak throws very well on the move and that buys another 2-3 seconds for those receivers to break through. They’ll be better when they get Gallup back as he is a much more physical receiver than Cooper or Lamb are.

That defense will look much better when Keanu Neal and Lawrence get back with the club.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

My predictions are often terrible, but sometimes outstandingly prescient (I'll regurgitate my call on the inevitable firing of Stans and the years in the desert it would lead to if needed).

With that out of the way, I've watched the first three Dallas games intently and I believe this team is a real threat to win it all this year. They have all the pieces on offense, a rapidly improving D and a QB who we all know just improves himself every single year.

I think Dak is very aware this is the year he needs to take it to the next level and it's obvious he is prepared for that level. Should be a lot of fun to watch.

Dak played out of mind on Monday, keep that up he will be mentioned in the top three QBs in the league.

 

[Seinfeld]

Even with all their focus on defense in the draft, I didn’t think there was any way that their defense would be anything other than a weakness this year. However, they look much improved. Not to the point of being a strength, but at least the secondary doesn’t look like a glaring hole

If their defense can be even middle of the pack this season, they’ll be a strong contender

Edited to add: I must be living in the moment as I see that they’re actually giving up more yards so far compared to last season. Oh well, I guess the point still remains that if their defense can tighten up, they’ll be tough to beat for a lot of teams

 

[TrueMaroonGrind]

Dak played out of mind on Monday, keep that up he will be mentioned in the top three QBs in the league.

He has taken a step this year. If this is his new normal he’ll win a ton of games with their weapons.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

The injury bug has already eaten up the Cowboys. They will get some nice jolts soon.

2 offensive starters (Collins and Gallup) will be back in the next few weeks. 4 defensive starters (D. Lawrence, Gallimore, D. Wilson, and C. Watkins) are all coming back in the next 6 weeks. They also were missing the #3 DE (D. Armstrong) and #3 and #4 CB (N. Wright, K. Joseph) against the Eagles.

The fact that the defense is doing so well with all of these injuries is really encouraging. The schedule is favorable too. The only games they should not be favored in out in late Nov-Jan.

As long as injuries don't get crazy, 12-13 wins seems doable.

 

[Drebin]

The Cowboys will have some inexplicable clunkers this year. They are the Cowboys, after all.

I still think they don't have that reliable game changer at wideout, either. Gallup plays in spurts, but Cooper has become an underneath guy at this point in his career and Lamb is still really inconsistent.

 

[She Mate Me]

Dak played out of mind on Monday, keep that up he will be mentioned in the top three QBs in the league.

One of the best games I've seen him play, and yet if you didn't see the game and just looked at his QBR it was his lowest of the season.

QBR is a complete joke that no one should pay any attention to.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

You sound like a Cowboys hater. Cooper and Lamb are both number 1 caliber receivers. Probably not top 10, but Both are top 20. #2 WR corps in the NFL and nobody can argue they are not top 5 without losing all credibility. Schultz, Jarwin, and Cedric Wilson are all nice pieces as well.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-ranking-all-nfl-receiving-corps-ahead-of-the-2021-season

 

[Motodawg]

Cowboys all the way this year!

 

[PineGroveBully]

But a lot of those yards were from the track meet in TB and a lot of garbage yards vs the eagles

 

[Drebin]

You sound like a Cowboys hater. Cooper and Lamb are both number 1 caliber receivers. Probably not top 10, but Both are top 20. #2 WR corps in the NFL and nobody can argue they are not top 5 without losing all credibility. Schultz, Jarwin, and Cedric Wilson are all nice pieces as well.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-ranking-all-nfl-receiving-corps-ahead-of-the-2021-season

#1 caliber receivers and #1 receivers are two different things entirely.

I'm not a Cowboys hater. I'm an unbiased observer.

 

[PineGroveBully]

QBR is such a fluky stat, I’m not sure of it’s formulation but it was through the roof his rookie season when he wasn’t near the QB he is today

 

[Go Budaw]

One of the best games I've seen him play, and yet if you didn't see the game and just looked at his QBR it was his lowest of the season.

QBR is a complete joke that no one should pay any attention to.

I don’t think I’d agree with that. QBR is very accurate at determining both the efficiency of a QB and how much they specifically drive the offense…..both passing and rushing.

I will however definitely say that only looking at it on a single game basis can lead to misleading conclusions. You have a game like Monday where Dallas leans on the running game, short passing game, and not so much QB rushing, it’s going to artificially punish the QBR, but all that will level out over the course of a season. It’s like seeing a guy like Mike Trout go 1-5 with 3 strikeouts and having a .400 OPS for a game, and then saying OPS is a meaningless stat because everyone knows Mike Trout is way better than that.

 

[She Mate Me]

But a lot of those yards were from the track meet in TB and a lot of garbage yards vs the eagles

Yes and stats in a 3 game stretch can be very misleading. Dallas was trailing a lot last year so their opponents were running the ball more while Dak was throwing it all over the yard trying to lead his team back.

The key defensive improvement through 3 games is nearly 10 pts less a game by opponents. And that's going to be even more glaring going forward (they gave up 49 to Cleveland in week 4 last year).

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

So not biased, just wrong.

2018 Dak with and without Amari Cooper

View attachment 22075
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Career Dak with and without Amari

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I figure you will make an argument about Dak and Kellen Moore being better, which is true. But anyone that watched the Cowboys in 2018 can tell you how much of an impact Amari has on the game. Cooper is one of the best receivers in the NFL. So is Lamb. Both are capable of being #1's (getting double covered all game) but you can't do it when they are on the same team. Just like you can't double Evans and Godwin for Tampa.

Averaged across 16 games Cee Dee Lamb with Dak:

94 receptions 1368 yds and 6 TD'S
View attachment 22079


Averaged across 16 games Amari Cooper with Dak:

92 receptions 1225 yds and 8 TD'S
View attachment 22080

 

[She Mate Me]

I don’t think I’d agree with that. QBR is very accurate at determining both the efficiency of a QB and how much they specifically drive the offense…..both passing and rushing.

I will however definitely say that only looking at it on a single game basis can lead to misleading conclusions. You have a game like Monday where Dallas leans on the running game, short passing game, and not so much QB rushing, it’s going to artificially punish the QBR, but all that will level out over the course of a season. It’s like seeing a guy like Mike Trout go 1-5 with 3 strikeouts and having a .400 OPS for a game, and then saying OPS is a meaningless stat because everyone knows Mike Trout is way better than that.

Over 3 games in 2021 (the NFL equivalent of 29 MLB games), Dak's QBR is 20th of 32 NFL starters. Many smart NFL pundits believe he is having an MVP worthy start to the season and is completing nearly 80% of his passes. It's not like this is a bad stretch of football by him. The stat is flawed, simple as that.

 

[Drebin]

So not biased, just wrong.

2018 Dak with and without Amari Cooper

View attachment 22075
View attachment 22076

Career Dak with and without Amari

View attachment 22077
View attachment 22078

I figure you will make an argument about Dak and Kellen Moore being better, which is true. But anyone that watched the Cowboys in 2018 can tell you how much of an impact Amari has on the game. Cooper is one of the best receivers in the NFL. So is Lamb. Both are capable of being #1's (getting double covered all game) but you can't do it when they are on the same team. Just like you can't double Evans and Godwin for Tampa.

Capable of being #1's and being #1's are two different things. I don't know why you're even debating this. Cherry picking stats from 2018 doesn't help your argument. In fact, you're either missing my point or moving the goalposts because you can't debate my point.

You can find nowhere that I've said Cooper and Lamb aren't good receivers. They can be occasionally great. They are not consistent. Cooper disappears for large segments of games, and Lamb is maddingly inconsistent. I say this as a guy who has owned both of them in fantasy football. I can probably name 25 WRs I'd rather have than either of those guys.

I get that you're a cowboys homer, so in your eyes, they have QB1, RB1, two WR1s, the best OL, DL, LBs, and kicker in the league. But facts are facts.

 

[Go Budaw]

Over 3 games in 2021 (the NFL equivalent of 29 MLB games), Dak's QBR is 20th of 32 NFL starters. Many smart NFL pundits believe he is having an MVP worthy start to the season and is completing nearly 80% of his passes. It's not like this is a bad stretch of football by him. The stat is flawed, simple as that.

Again, let it play out. Dallas has run a hell of a lot the past 2 games, and not with Dak. The Chargers specifically use a run-funnel defense that basically forces that to be the case. They aren’t going to keep that up over the course of the season. Wait until they play WFT, Saints, etc.

He’s currently throwing for less than 300 yards per game and only 2 TD’s per game, plus almost an INT per game. And he’s not running a lot. That’s why the QBR is low. If he keeps that same pace over 17 games, that’s only 4,900 / 34 / 12. Those are good numbers, but nowhere close to MVP worthy no matter what any pundits say or what his completion percentage is. If those were MVP stats, Drew Brees would have had like 5 MVP’s. But it’s going to get a lot better for him statistically across the board against the weaker secondary / stronger Run D teams that are still in the schedule.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

Lamb and Cooper were both in the top 25 in receiving yards last year. With 2nd, 3rd, and 4th string QB's starting 11 games combined. You say I am cherry picking stats. The Cowboys we're 3-4 without Cooper in 2018. 7-2 after the trade. Dak raised his game because he had no #1. In only 9 games Cooper led the team in receiving yards. Cole Beasley was 2nd with 16 games. Beasley was and still is a number 2.

I'm not cherry picking ****. I'm showing actual stats across long periods of time. Your argument is completely subjective and opinion. Every player has a bad game here and there. Cooper has laid some turds. Doesn't mean he's not a number 1. AJ Brown has 7 receptions for 92 yards this season. Is he no longer a good receiver?

As for my homerisms here is how I feel about the Cowboys.

Dak is a top 5 QB
The WR Corps are top 5
The RB's are top 15
The OL is top 10.

The Cowboys offense is around the top 5 in the NFL. If you can't admit or agree with that, well that's just a bad take.

The defense Is thought would be in the bottom 10. But Quinn seems to have them playing better than that. They are doing a great job creating turnovers. If it's more than fools gold and can build through the season... They can go far.

The Cowboys are playing really well so far. But the defense is still the weak link. The offense is good enough to win the Super Bowl. Can't say that about the defense or special teams at this point.

 

[WrapItDog]

Super Bowl Odds 2022


Odds courtesy of BetMGM. Correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
<figure class="wp-block-table">

Team	Odds
Kansas City Chiefs	+600
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	+600
LA Rams	+800
Buffalo Bills	+900
Green Bay Packers	+1400
San Francisco 49ers	+1400
Cleveland Browns	+1400
Baltimore Ravens	+1600
LA Chargers	+1800
Arizona Cardinals	+2500
Tennessee Titans	+2500
Dallas Cowboys	+2500
New Orleans Saints	+3000
Denver Broncos	+3000
Las Vegas Raiders	+3000
Seattle Seahawks	+3000

<tbody>
</tbody>

</figure>

 

[Drebin]

Lamb and Cooper were both in the top 25 in receiving yards last year. With 2nd, 3rd, and 4th string QB's starting 11 games combined. You say I am cherry picking stats. The Cowboys we're 3-4 without Cooper in 2018. 7-2 after the trade. Dak raised his game because he had no #1. In only 9 games Cooper led the team in receiving yards. Cole Beasley was 2nd with 16 games. Beasley was and still is a number 2.

I'm not cherry picking ****. I'm showing actual stats across long periods of time. Your argument is completely subjective and opinion. Every player has a bad game here and there. Cooper has laid some turds. Doesn't mean he's not a number 1. AJ Brown has 7 receptions for 92 yards this season. Is he no longer a good receiver?

As for my homerisms here is how I feel about the Cowboys.

Dak is a top 5 QB
The WR Corps are top 5
The RB's are top 15
The OL is top 10.

The Cowboys offense is around the top 5 in the NFL. If you can't admit or agree with that, well that's just a bad take.

The defense Is thought would be in the bottom 10. But Quinn seems to have them playing better than that. They are doing a great job creating turnovers. If it's more than fools gold and can build through the season... They can go far.

The Cowboys are playing really well so far. But the defense is still the weak link. The offense is good enough to win the Super Bowl. Can't say that about the defense or special teams at this point.

Yep, you're a homer.

"Cole Beasley was and still is a number 2." Cole Beasley is WR3 at best on his own team.

As I said, if I were starting my own team, there's AT LEAST 25 WRs I'm picking before either Cooper or Lamb. And there's at least 5 QBs I'm picking ahead of Dak.

I predict major disappointment for you aGAIN.

 

[PirateDawg]

Now is the time to lay the money down!

Super Bowl Odds 2022


Odds courtesy of BetMGM. Correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
<figure class="wp-block-table">

Team	Odds
Kansas City Chiefs	+600
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	+600
LA Rams	+800
Buffalo Bills	+900
Green Bay Packers	+1400
San Francisco 49ers	+1400
Cleveland Browns	+1400
Baltimore Ravens	+1600
LA Chargers	+1800
Arizona Cardinals	+2500
Tennessee Titans	+2500
Dallas Cowboys	+2500
New Orleans Saints	+3000
Denver Broncos	+3000
Las Vegas Raiders	+3000
Seattle Seahawks	+3000

<tbody>
</tbody>

</figure>

If you wait until later in the season odds will go down!

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

I predict the Cowboys win the NFC East. I don't think they are going to win the Super Bowl. Might win a playoff game. you think I am going to be disappointed in that expectation?

Dak will be in the MVP discussion, but probably won't win it. You picking 25 WR over Cooper and Lamb is a personal decision. Let us know when you start a team. I'll be rooting for you.

 

[She Mate Me]

Again, let it play out. Dallas has run a hell of a lot the past 2 games, and not with Dak. The Chargers specifically use a run-funnel defense that basically forces that to be the case. They aren’t going to keep that up over the course of the season. Wait until they play WFT, Saints, etc.

He’s currently throwing for less than 300 yards per game and only 2 TD’s per game, plus almost an INT per game. And he’s not running a lot. That’s why the QBR is low. If he keeps that same pace over 17 games, that’s only 4,900 / 34 / 12. Those are good numbers, but nowhere close to MVP worthy no matter what any pundits say or what his completion percentage is. If those were MVP stats, Drew Brees would have had like 5 MVP’s. But it’s going to get a lot better for him statistically across the board against the weaker secondary / stronger Run D teams that are still in the schedule.

Happy to let it play out.

But if a supposed all encompassing QB rating made up of multiple proprietary factors says that 3 games into the season one of the best QBs in the NFL is 20th best, it's not doing its job.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Dak played out of mind on Monday, keep that up he will be mentioned in the top three QBs in the league.

I still remember Dallas fans saying he was NOT a top tier QB and they wished they had Carson Wentz because he was a better QB.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Yep, you're a homer.

"Cole Beasley was and still is a number 2." Cole Beasley is WR3 at best on his own team.

As I said, if I were starting my own team, there's AT LEAST 25 WRs I'm picking before either Cooper or Lamb. And there's at least 5 QBs I'm picking ahead of Dak.

I predict major disappointment for you aGAIN.

I'm a Dak fan. I used to be a Cowboys fan until Jerry screwed things up on a constant basis, but I do give him credit for staying with Dak when there were so many out there telling him to let him go. There may be technically better QBs in the NFL but it's not from lack of work on Dak's part.

I like the leadership stories I hear about Dak. His players really believe in him.

 

[Cooterpoot]

Winning the whole damn thing this year! They haven't played a single game with all their starters yet.

 

[Go Budaw]

Happy to let it play out.

But if a supposed all encompassing QB rating made up of multiple proprietary factors says that 3 games into the season one of the best QBs in the NFL is 20th best, it's not doing its job.

Because statistically he has been fairly ordinary. YPA and YPC are near career lows. He’s not thrown a ton of TD’s. He’s not doing ANYTHING in the running game. But above all, 3 games just isn’t a sufficient sample size to make sweeping generalizations with QBR.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

"Cole Beasley was and still is a number 2." Cole Beasley is WR3 at best on his own team.

Cole Beasley has been the 2nd leading receiver on his team for 3 consecutive years. So far this year he is tied with Sanders for the team lead in yards and has twice as many receptions as anyone else. Saunders is taking away opportunities from Diggs on the outside, Beasley will get his.

 

[PineGroveBully]

That’s why I said it’s such a fluky star. Other than those 5 games last year his career best QBr was his rookie season, which was 77.6. He leaned on the running game more that year and mostly dinked and dunked the whole season. So you’d think this year’s numbers would more closely resemble those numbers. Like I said, I don’t know enough about the formulation but I do think a QB’s rushing yards are factored into it. He ran a lot that first year as that was what he was used to doing, and coming off the injury, other than a sneak or rolling out, he’s not going to be leaving the pocket a lot. That’s the only thing I can think of that would make this year so much lower than 2016.

Edited to add: Which makes no sense as Ray Charles can see he’s playing the position at a much higher level this year than he ever has yet it’s the lowest QBR of his career.

 

[Go Budaw]

That’s why I said it’s such a fluky star. Other than those 5 games last year his career best QBr was his rookie season, which was 77.6. He leaned on the running game more that year and mostly dinked and dunked the whole season. So you’d this year’s numbers would more closely resemble those numbers. Like I said, I don’t know enough about the formulation but I do think a QB’s rushing yards are factored into it. He ran a lot that first year as that was what he was used to doing, and coming off the injury, other than a sneak or rolling out, he’s not going to be leaving the pocket a lot. That’s the only thing I can think of that would make this year so much lower than 2016.

QB rushing is absolutely factored into it, and that’s what is hurting him this year. That’s a big reason why it was created….so you can have an apples to apples comparison of a Lamar Jackson or Michael Vick to a Drew Brees or a Tom Brady.

And if you think Dak just dinked and dunked his rookie season, then by default you kind of have to think he’s dinking and dunking even more this year than he did then. Yards per attempt, air yards per attempt, and yards per completion were all higher in his rookie season than the first 3 games of this year (particularly the past 2 games).

All that said, Dak is playing great and is making all the plays asked of him, and has already proven ad nauseum that he can take over when needed. It wasn’t needed against LA or Philly. All these numbers are going to climb a lot more as the season gets going.