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- Thread starter 57stratdawg
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I fell for the early season hype last year. I'm going in with no expectations this time and won't let any OOC success fool me. I'd actually be more surprised by hosting a regional that notmaking the tournament at all. I know some of our guys did great during the summer, but those are the same guys who laid a big turd of a season just weeks prior. Regardless, I'm excited about listening to Mississippi State baseball on the weekends. My wife, however, is not. Although we do tend to go shopping together more during this time as I walk around stores with my earbuds in, clapping or cursing at any moment, unaware of my surroundings.
I understand that mindset, but keep in mind, any OOC success this year is a big deal. If we hold our own in LA and beat Oregon at home, our opening SEC series in Nashville will likely be between two teams being projected as National Seeds.
Big difference here.
Cincinnati - (final RPI) #202
Cincinnati - #202
Miami(OH) - #282
Cincinnati - #202
Marshall - #185
Alabama A&M - #229
Alabama A&M - #229
Marshall - #185
Alcorn St - #291
Arizona - #128
Arizona - #128
Samford - #104
Samford - #104
was the part of the schedule last year before people started to see the cracks. No top 100 teams although we thought Arizona and Samford were going to be.
Contrasted to this year (last year's final RPI as indicator)
Florida Atlantic #17
Florida Atlantic #17
South Dakota State #164
South Dakota State #164
Memphis #77
Massachusetts-Lowell #213
Nicholls State #84
Massachusetts-Lowell #213
Nicholls State #84
Alcorn State #291
UCLA #7
USC #27
Oklahoma #87
South Alabama #78
Oregon #66
Oregon #66
Oregon #66
Eastern Kentucky #265
Oral Roberts #43
This year is a whole different monster. Last year's team was far more talented than the end result -- but the early season schedule and dropping a few of those games put them in an RPI rabbit hole they seemed to realize far too early they weren't going to be able to dig out of. This year's team is probably a host at 34-36 regular season wins. This schedule projects to be tougher by average RPI of all opponents than Florida's(#1 SOS) regular season was last year by a decent margin. Obviously everyone's schedule improves in the postseason.
This team is a disappointment if they don't host. Been saying it all along. All the pieces are in place.
Cincinnati - (final RPI) #202
Cincinnati - #202
Miami(OH) - #282
Cincinnati - #202
Marshall - #185
Alabama A&M - #229
Alabama A&M - #229
Marshall - #185
Alcorn St - #291
Arizona - #128
Arizona - #128
Samford - #104
Samford - #104
was the part of the schedule last year before people started to see the cracks. No top 100 teams although we thought Arizona and Samford were going to be.
Contrasted to this year (last year's final RPI as indicator)
Florida Atlantic #17
Florida Atlantic #17
South Dakota State #164
South Dakota State #164
Memphis #77
Massachusetts-Lowell #213
Nicholls State #84
Massachusetts-Lowell #213
Nicholls State #84
Alcorn State #291
UCLA #7
USC #27
Oklahoma #87
South Alabama #78
Oregon #66
Oregon #66
Oregon #66
Eastern Kentucky #265
Oral Roberts #43
This year is a whole different monster. Last year's team was far more talented than the end result -- but the early season schedule and dropping a few of those games put them in an RPI rabbit hole they seemed to realize far too early they weren't going to be able to dig out of. This year's team is probably a host at 34-36 regular season wins. This schedule projects to be tougher by average RPI of all opponents than Florida's(#1 SOS) regular season was last year by a decent margin. Obviously everyone's schedule improves in the postseason.
This team is a disappointment if they don't host. Been saying it all along. All the pieces are in place.
So, you honestly wouldn't be surprised if we are coach searching after this season? Because that's prettymuch what you are saying...
I didn't remember us being ranked pre-season last year. I remember us climbing pretty high after starting out like 13-0.
No doubt we'll find out how good this team is a lot earlier than we did last year. I will say this. Cohen put this year's schedule together like a coach who thinks his team is loaded. I hope he's right.
Talented or not (and I think the talent is questionable), last year's team wasn't worth a **** and there no excuse for a season like that to ever, ever, ever happen at MSU. There was a lot more wrong with that team than "dropping a few early season games." I hope Cohen has got it fixed.
You are seriously sticking with that after all the evidence that has been accumulated since last season ended?
Summer ball is different than SEC ball. I think there is potential for this team. Which is why I say I wouldn't be surprised if we host a regional. But I've seen Cohen 17 up what looked like a pretty good team in February before. And none of these guys have proven jack at the SEC level. Yet.
Even you have to admit that we have seen much more significant variance in performance from Cohen's teams than just about anyone expected (once he got his recruits in place of course). The variance goes as high as being the runner up in Omaha to what happened last year. That being said, Patdog feels like a lot of the rest of the fans who don't follow the team as religiously as you do. We could be hosting a Super Regional or not hosting at all in the post season and neither would be a big surprise.
Were we ranked pre-season last year or did we move up the rakings due to wins in non-conference games. I don't remember the mags thinking too highly of us.
This is pretty much how I feel. I can't think of a single result of this team that may shock me. I wouldn't be shocked with 25 wins and I wouldn't be shocked with 45 wins. However, I will be an advocate for changing coaches if we have 25 wins.
No, in the big boy leagues, it is not.
If you want to play a game -- we can go through and see who broke out in the summer in big boy leagues and how it translated back to SEC ball the following season. It's been almost an infallible indicator in our program.
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I'm pretty sure we went into last season unranked. We didn't go into hype mode until we had those first few weekends: Cincinnati, Arizona, etc.
Then we started sinking and hearing the words "new balls" and "Adidas bats".
Beware of Florida Atlantic. They are a good team, they were 42-19 last year, went to the NCAA Regionals, and they return essentially everyone from last year except their Catcher.
That is my recollection as well. IIRC, the mags didn't like us too much pre-season. They sometimes miss teams that have those good college players but few pro prospects, but they tend to have decent ideas of overall talent levels.
By all means, share the data. Give me hope. Because what we've mostly seen recently is extreme hype on guys (high recruiting rankings) who don't pan out. Fair or not to compare a different sport, you made similar proclamations about the player Johnny Zuppardo would be for us given his JUCO stats, and we see how that turned out.
Refute it then. Why don't you define the talent differential between the Cape Cod League and SEC for us?
I already know you will ignore or produce another one sentence insult without actually addressing the topic though -- because any actual attempt is going to show the "outright silliness" lies somewhere other than where you think it lies.
Well, the 14 SEC head baseball coaches didn't put any of our guys on either their 1st or 2nd team preseason All-SEC teams, and they picked us 4th in the West (pretty big gap in points between #3 and #4)). I certainly hope you're more informed about this than they are.
The Cape Cod League
is pretty comparable to the SEC, and that is the league where most of the players getting high praise from our squad shined, last summer.
is pretty comparable to the SEC, and that is the league where most of the players getting high praise from our squad shined, last summer.
What did I say about Zuppardo exactly? He's been disappointing as has Daniels. I was wrong about both. What does it have to do with anything? I guess it means I'm a pretty damn good baseball prognosticator if you had to go cross-sport to make your point. What does high school baseball recruiting rankings have to do with anything I've said in this thread? People expecting 'crootin rankings to define the team rather than looking at the development of players themselves who actually showed up on campus and are healthy is the problem. However, we can pull everything from 2011 meltdown fahr Cohen/Thompson threads, to 2013 preseason prognostication where I was on the island saying we were one of the top 8 teams in the country, to the engie call out threads when we had the series losing streak midseason, to the preseason call for 2015 to be a transition year(granted I didn't see it falling apart how it did at the end), and overall will find I'm about as accurate a baseball prognosticator as exists on this site.
We were the #1 highest rated baseball team in the country on the basis of summer league achievements this year. #1. Something that has never happened in the history of our program. We had MVPs in 3 different leagues. No one that paid attention to summer ball was the least bit surprised by Girodo, Lindgren, Renfroe, and several more I'm forgetting when they broke out -- because all of them initially broke out in the prior summer. In fact, I challenge someone to show me a guy that had a true breakout summer for us -- that came back and struggled the next year. Because I honestly can't think of one right now. That's just the players that have played high-level competition at this level. Not talking about the #3 recruiting class that looks like it will actually have a bunch of early contributors and a handful of guys that have previously been drafted.
This team is going to host a regional -- or it will be a very disappointing year. That is my expectation -- and I believe it's the first time I've convincingly had it on the front end since 2013. This should be another peak season where alot of the key talent is draft-eligible. We are going to put 5 pitchers into the top 10 rounds. No excuse not to get it done.
I find it interesting that you ignored/downplayed all positive press throughout the preseason -- yet virtually ran to post the first thing you conveyed as negative press. We were #14 in the SEC last year -- all they remember is us laying down for them -- and you thought they were going to load us up with preseason accolades? And you think their viewpoint is better/more accurate than the 6 preseason polls that each and every one thought to include us in the top 20? That's #17, #19, #15, #17, #20, #11 for the record. I'm sure all those sites put us there -- a team with a losing record last year -- for no reason.
We hit a lot more bombs from a lot more guys this summer than we have in the past. We also have a shortened porch in right -- and better bats, whatever small difference that will make. We have recruited alot more power the last couple of years. Should be obvious to everyone when we take the field for the first time.
ETA: Not directed at you ---- but I think it's funny how everyone bitches about "lazy sports writers" when it comes to football and how deeply they dig to make their prognostications. Yet the same fans are even lazier in making their baseball prognostications. "Well, we weren't any good last year, so they are gonna have to prove it to me this year." "Well, we went to the CWS last year, we will be a top 10 team this year." Every single baseball team is almost entirely different than the previous and what those shuffled pieces do makes all the difference.
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I don't think people are being lazy prognosticators, or at least not in this thread. I think everyone is mostly "cautiously optimistic" about the upcoming season, but they want to see it on the field. The past couple of seasons have been disappointing enough that people are entitled to be a little skeptical. Yeah, we're talented, and yeah, many of the guys had good summers, but that's been the talking points before, too.
Quality baseball in Starkville is what all of us want.
Quality baseball in Starkville is what all of us want.
To be fair, and not
making excuses just telling it like it is, injuries and the change in the rules all but killed our 14 & 15. I think we are finally past one of those, rule changes, though.
making excuses just telling it like it is, injuries and the change in the rules all but killed our 14 & 15. I think we are finally past one of those, rule changes, though.
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