D1 Guys

[She Mate Me]

If you wanna deep dive on the projected field before the announcement tomorrow.

As much as I sometimes hack on these guys they know the landscape and this is interesting. If you just wanna hear about State, watch the first few minutes. They lay out their Arky vs MSU thoughts and are pretty reasonable IMO...

 

[Curby]

Screw 'em. They had us projected outside the top 16

 

[She Mate Me]

Screw 'em. They had us projected outside the top 16

At 17, which will probably be within 2 of where we end up seeded.

 

[DT4248]

At 17, which will probably be within 2 of where we end up seeded.

By metrics we're a top 12 team / seed. It's just clickbait stupidity. USM should be below us in seeding. We should be the 12 matched up with UNC's #5

 

[ronpolk]

By metrics we're a top 12 team / seed. It's just clickbait stupidity. USM should be below us in seeding. We should be the 12 matched up with UNC's #5

I tend to agree with you. Messing with state fans probably generates the most clicks these guys get in a single weekend all year.

 

[Colonel Kang]

These guys lay out Arkansas' case & get so far into the weeds comparing Arkansas & MSU that they failed to realize that a team with MSU's resume has hosted 100% of the time in history.

These guys completely missed the forest for the trees. They didn't even consider the precedents

 

[SoJxnVol]

I tried these guys out awhile back & I had to stop. This may sound silly to some but it gets on my nerves with the new generation of sports media males who sound like a girl & appear to be nerds. Hell, I can’t listen to borkey. Go be a scientist, work for nasa; anything but sports.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

I tend to agree with you. Messing with state fans probably generates the most clicks these guys get in a single weekend all year.

Which is understandable.

Kendall’s just trolling all the Will We Host? comments…

 

[patdog]

Why waste your time. And poster in this board can guess about this just as well as that website can. Hell, even better in some cases. And for the record, I’m being completely serious

 

[She Mate Me]

By metrics we're a top 12 team / seed. It's just clickbait stupidity. USM should be below us in seeding. We should be the 12 matched up with UNC's #5

So 7 SEC teams should be in the Top 12? Because that's what you're saying. There are 6 SEC teams most, including me, would say are ahead of our resume.

Maybe 7 should be in the Top 12, but I'd bet a lot of money 7 won't be, and it won't just be the D1 guys that think so.

 

[aTotal360]

Man, some of yall get up in your feelings too easily. What they laid out is pretty fair.

Arky had better wins, worse losses, and the head-to-head advantage. We had a better RPI and no bad losses. As someone on the board said, we are a Mullins football team. As soon as we play a great team, we will get punched in the mouth.

 

[She Mate Me]

Glad to see that basically everybody in the comments didn't even consider watching the video, but had opinions.

 

[She Mate Me]

Man, some of yall get up in your feelings too easily. What they laid out is pretty fair.

Arky had better wins, worse losses, and the head-to-head advantage. We had a better RPI and no bad losses. As someone on the board said, we are a Mullins football team. As soon as we play a great team, we will get punched in the mouth.

Thank you. Obviously you did actually watch it.

 

[She Mate Me]

Why waste your time. And poster in this board can guess about this just as well as that website can. Hell, even better in some cases. And for the record, I’m being completely serious

It's fine that you're being serious, but seeing the logic of many here, I'm gonna disagree.

 

[msudawg1200]

It shouldn't be a State vs Arkansas argument. One of USM, West Va, Kansas, or Oregon is the culprit that shouldn't be hosting.

 

[patdog]

It shouldn't be a State vs Arkansas argument. One of USM, West Va, Kansas, or Oregon is the culprit that shouldn't be hosting.

And that should be your #13-16 seeds.

 

[She Mate Me]

It shouldn't be a State vs Arkansas argument. One of USM, West Va, Kansas, or Oregon is the culprit that shouldn't be hosting.

The main reason I posted this was so we might have some logical discussions.

For example, what is your logic for saying Southern Miss possibly shouldn't host?

They play in probably the 5th best conference and they just won it and won the conference tournament. Remember, the 2nd best team (this year) in that conference played LSU for the natty last year.

Southern's also got 26 RPI Quad 1&2 wins. That's a lot. We've got 13. Yes, we've play WAY more top teams, but we've lost to them, a lot.

I think we're probably better than USM in a neutral 3 game series, but I'm not very sure of it.

I am sure that there's basically zero chance they won't host and almost no argument that they don't deserve to host. They're much closer to a Top 8 than 17.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

It shouldn't be a State vs Arkansas argument. One of USM, West Va, Kansas, or Oregon is the culprit that shouldn't be hosting.

Two conference regular season champions that won their tournaments and teams that finished in second & third (Oregon) place in the conference regular season and were runners-up in tournaments

That’s high quality bait…

The main reason I posted this was so we might have some logical discussions.

For example, what is your logic for saying Southern Miss possibly shouldn't host?

They play in probably the 5th best conference and they just won it and won the conference tournament. Remember, the 2nd best team (this year) in that conference played LSU for the natty last year.

Southern's also got 26 RPI Quad 1&2 wins. That's a lot. We've got 13. Yes, we've play WAY more top teams, but we've lost to them, a lot.

I think we're probably better than USM in a neutral 3 game series, but I'm not very sure of it.

I am sure that there's basically zero chance they won't host and almost no argument that they don't deserve to host. They're much closer to a Top 8 than 17.

Southern Miss was announced as a host yesterday

The D1 guys put Southern Miss as the 9-seed… probably too high in my opinion… but the Eagles also have a better RPI than State, so I would not be surprised to see them have a higher national seed…

 

[She Mate Me]

Two conference regular season champions that won their tournaments and teams that finished in second & third (Oregon) place in the conference regular season and were runners-up in tournaments

That’s high quality bait…

Southern Miss was announced as a host yesterday

The D1 guys put Southern Miss as the 9-seed… probably too high in my opinion… but the Eagles also have a better RPI than State, so I would not be surprised to see them have a higher national seed…

I knew they were a host, was just arguing with the idea that they maybe shouldn't be, as he suggested.

I expect they'll be 10-12 and we'll be 14-16, and that'll be fine and about right based on the resumes. State had lots of chances to win two or three more big games that would completely change the discussion. But they didn't.

A new postseason of opportunities is about to commence.

 

[patdog]

I knew they were a host, was just arguing with the idea that they maybe shouldn't be, as he suggested.

I expect they'll be 10-12 and we'll be 14-16, and that'll be fine and about right based on the resumes. State had lots of chances to win two or three more big games that would completely change the discussion. But they didn't.

A new postseason of opportunities is about to commence.

We should be seeded above them. But I agree we may not be. But if you swapped schedules, USM wouldn’t be hosting (they’d be a low 2-seed) and we’d be a top 8 seed maybe top 4.

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

It shouldn't be a State vs Arkansas argument. One of USM, West Va, Kansas, or Oregon is the culprit that shouldn't be hosting.

USM has the strongest case of these 4. The Big Ten is garbage outside of UCLA and top 25ish Oregon, Nebraska, & maybe USC

The Big 12 really needs for Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, & the Arizona schools to be good. The WVU & KU resumes are kinda phony.

I can see USM a spot ahead of us. They split with us head to head and played an incredible OOC schedule. The Sunbelt is also a pretty good baseball league. I might take the top half of the Sunbelt vs. the top half of the Big 10 or Big 12.

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

The D1 guys put Southern Miss as the 9-seed… probably too high in my opinion… but the Eagles also have a better RPI than State, so I would not be surprised to see them have a higher national seed…

USM's AD is on the committee & they will be ranked too high. They should be 12-13.

The way that the ADs on the selection committee protect their schools is ridiculous. We saw it with ECU hosting a couple of years ago. Whether we admit it or not, Sticklin & Mike Alford are probably the reason we are hosting.

 

[patdog]

I might take the top half of the Sunbelt vs. the top half of the Big 10 or Big 12.

I wouldn’t. Not even close.

 

[00Dawg]

I gave the nerd cast a few listens this year, and probably will again, but so often they get to how to seed certain teams, one person makes a case, and the others start to sound like Dwight when Jim is asking him if the world could end in X number of months.
They don’t challenge each other’s assumptions enough, which is why I bet they’ve mis-seeded several teams by 3 or more spots again this year.

 

[She Mate Me]

We should be seeded above them. But I agree we may not be. But if you swapped schedules, USM wouldn’t be hosting (they’d be a low 2-seed) and we’d be a top 8 seed maybe top 4.

I'm pretty much in agreement that against their schedule, we'd finish very strong. Maybe even better than they did. Without knowing a lot more about their weekend rotation I can't comment on how they'd do in the SEC.

They did play 5 games against good SEC teams and went 3-2.

 

[msudawg1200]

I'm not saying USM or any of those others shouldn't host. My argument was that the D1 guys and others are acting like State "stole" Arkansas' host spot which I think, by the metrics, is untrue, because we deserve a host spot over those other four by looking at the metrics. The only metric that gets us is Q1 wins, but we make up for that with no bad, Q3-4, losses. In most every other metric we are better than USM, Oregon, West Va, and Kansas. It was not wanting to put in another SEC team which is bullshat.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

USM's AD is on the committee & they will be ranked too high. They should be 12-13.

The way that the ADs on the selection committee protect their schools is ridiculous. We saw it with ECU hosting a couple of years ago. Whether we admit it or not, Sticklin & Mike Alford are probably the reason we are hosting.

I listened to the Nerdcast, and they took into account the selection committee ADs…

They sometimes go a bit too far… They admitted to moving up Southern Miss higher because that’s where they felt Coastal Carolina should have been last year…

But Coastal was a 13-seed last year, and that’s where I expect the Eagles to be…

 

[She Mate Me]

I'm not saying USM or any of those others shouldn't host. My argument was that the D1 guys and others are acting like State "stole" Arkansas' host spot which I think, by the metrics, is untrue, because we deserve a host spot over those other four by looking at the metrics. The only metric that gets us is Q1 wins, but we make up for that with no bad, Q3-4, losses. In most every other metric we are better than USM, Oregon, West Va, and Kansas. It was not wanting to put in another SEC team which is bullshat.

I didn't see anything in that video indicating State stole Arkansas's spot. They had us #17 and admitted it was a close call that could have gone either way.

 

[DT4248]

So 7 SEC teams should be in the Top 12? Because that's what you're saying. There are 6 SEC teams most, including me, would say are ahead of our resume.

Maybe 7 should be in the Top 12, but I'd bet a lot of money 7 won't be, and it won't just be the D1 guys that think so.

Yes they should

COLLEGE BASEBALL POWER RATINGS & RANKINGS

Estimates the score difference prior to a game and ranks teams from best to worst.

sonnymoorepowerratings.com

- 7 in top 11

Massey Ratings - College Baseball : NCAA D1 Ratings

Computer ratings and rankings for CBASE (College Baseball), with links to team predictions, scores, and schedules.

masseyratings.com

- 8 in top 13 (which necessitates 7 in top 12)

Faktor

faktorsports.com

- 7 in top 11

Diamond Sports Ranking • D1Baseball

d1baseball.com

- 6 in top 12 (ark - 14; bama - 15)

ELO Chess Ranking - 2026 College Baseball | WarrenNolan.com

2026 College Baseball ELO Chess Ranking: a ranking of teams by their ELO Chess Score which increases or decreases based the outcome of the game and opponents skill level (ELO ranking).

www.warrennolan.com

- 7 in top 11

All of those have MSU top 12. RPI is the outlier with us at 13. Since USC didn't get a host spot you can bump us up to 12th there.

Find me a computer metric that has us lower than 12th in host sites.

Man, some of yall get up in your feelings too easily. What they laid out is pretty fair.

Arky had better wins, worse losses, and the head-to-head advantage. We had a better RPI and no bad losses. As someone on the board said, we are a Mullins football team. As soon as we play a great team, we will get punched in the mouth.

my problem was them making it either us or them. i thought both of us should have hosted and oregon / usm should have been the bubble teams. i had arkansas as my 15 after their late push. i have us as 12 and im probably underselling us just to not match us up with the texsa schools on the road in a super again cause that'd be a series rematch.

 

[patdog]

I'm pretty much in agreement that against their schedule, we'd finish very strong. Maybe even better than they did. Without knowing a lot more about their weekend rotation I can't comment on how they'd do in the SEC.

They did play 5 games against good SEC teams and went 3-2.

They did. But those were all midweek games early in The season. Not a great measure to judge his they’d do in a winners bracket vs SEC weekend pitching.

 

[She Mate Me]

They did. But those were all midweek games early in The season. Not a great measure to judge his they’d do in a winners bracket vs SEC weekend pitching.

If they get thru at home, we may find out in Gainesville.

If they don't get through at home again, that'll answer the question.

 

[She Mate Me]

Yes they should

COLLEGE BASEBALL POWER RATINGS & RANKINGS

Estimates the score difference prior to a game and ranks teams from best to worst.

sonnymoorepowerratings.com

- 7 in top 11

Massey Ratings - College Baseball : NCAA D1 Ratings

Computer ratings and rankings for CBASE (College Baseball), with links to team predictions, scores, and schedules.

masseyratings.com

- 8 in top 13 (which necessitates 7 in top 12)

Faktor

faktorsports.com

- 7 in top 11

Diamond Sports Ranking • D1Baseball

d1baseball.com

- 6 in top 12 (ark - 14; bama - 15)

ELO Chess Ranking - 2026 College Baseball | WarrenNolan.com

2026 College Baseball ELO Chess Ranking: a ranking of teams by their ELO Chess Score which increases or decreases based the outcome of the game and opponents skill level (ELO ranking).

www.warrennolan.com

- 7 in top 11

All of those have MSU top 12. RPI is the outlier with us at 13. Since USC didn't get a host spot you can bump us up to 12th there.

Find me a computer metric that has us lower than 12th in host sites.

my problem was them making it either us or them. i thought both of us should have hosted and oregon / usm should have been the bubble teams. i had arkansas as my 15 after their late push. i have us as 12 and im probably underselling us just to not match us up with the texsa schools on the road in a super again cause that'd be a series rematch.

You did a lot of work. I thought 6 would be in the Top 12 and that's what happened so my bet was safe. We were a spot higher than I thought we'd be so I'm happy with that.

 

[She Mate Me]

The D1 guys hit 63 of 64 teams and were perfect on seeding the Top 9.

Kinda missed the seeding on 10-16. Had us underseeded, but nothing egregious. I think the committee gave us more credit for just how many Top 16 teams we had to play and these guys did.

I'd be interested to know how the committee made decisions on WV, Kansas, Nebraska and Oregon and even Florida State. Nothing would have really surprised me on how those teams were arranged.

 

[patdog]

You did a lot of work. I thought 6 would be in the Top 12 and that's what happened so my bet was safe. We were a spot higher than I thought we'd be so I'm happy with that.

I’m ok with it. But we really should be a couple spots higher. No matter. We got a good regional draw. And super draw was always going to be tough no matter what.

 

[patdog]

The D1 guys hit 63 of 64 teams and were perfect on seeding the Top 9.

Kinda missed the seeding on 10-16. Had us underseeded, but nothing egregious. I think the committee gave us more credit for just how many Top 16 teams we had to play and these guys did.

I'd be interested to know how the committee made decisions on WV, Kansas, Nebraska and Oregon and even Florida State. Nothing would have really surprised me on how those teams were arranged.

I really think they decided they needed 2 big 12, 3 big 10 & 3 ACC hosts and correctly realized usc RPI was a total fraud. And 8th sex team really should have gotten 1 of those bids.

edit: that’s 8th SEC team.

 

[She Mate Me]

I really think they decided they needed 2 big 12, 3 big 10 & 3 ACC hosts and correctly realized usc RPI was a total fraud. And 8th sex team really should have gotten 1 of those bids.

edit: that’s 8th SEC team.

No arguments on that

 

[DT4248]

You did a lot of work. I thought 6 would be in the Top 12 and that's what happened so my bet was safe. We were a spot higher than I thought we'd be so I'm happy with that.

I did more work than the committee did and i just found five links. This bracket is terribly made. Mercer, top 30 in RPI and 40+ wins left out is a sham. But then you have things that can only be justified by RPI metrics driving a lot of seeding. Doesn't make sense. I want them to know what metric they used to get us down to 14. I can't find it.

 

[She Mate Me]

I did more work than the committee did and i just found five links. This bracket is terribly made. Mercer, top 30 in RPI and 40+ wins left out is a sham. But then you have things that can only be justified by RPI metrics driving a lot of seeding. Doesn't make sense. I want them to know what metric they used to get us down to 14. I can't find it.

It's pretty simple to me. I take off my maroon glasses and see that 7 of our 10 SEC series were against NCAA tournament teams. We won 1 of those and lost 6. Got swept twice. 9 of our 16 SEC wins were over teams that didn't make the tournament. We went 7-14 in the regular season against SEC NCAA tournament teams.

Our absolute ceiling should have been 12. I'm glad we got a host and happy we're at 14.

 

[DT4248]

It's pretty simple to me. I take off my maroon glasses and see that 7 of our 10 SEC series were against NCAA tournament teams. We won 1 of those and lost 6. Got swept twice. 9 of our 16 SEC wins were over teams that didn't make the tournament. We went 7-14 in the regular season against SEC NCAA tournament teams.

Our absolute ceiling should have been 12. I'm glad we got a host and happy we're at 14.

I'm removing names and name bias. I'm going strictly off numbers. It's not about measuring Mississippi State against our own expectations. It's about measuring everyone's entire body of work.

Considering we have 3 high Q2 losses by RPI, 0 in Q3/Q4, and 0 Q2/Q3/Q4 losses by those KPI/DSR... we actually have quite the impressive resume. If you strictly said DSR, we were 12-17 in Q1 and 10-0 in Q2. That's pretty elite with no bad losses. 9-12 range is where we mostly should have landed.

Like I said - show me the numbers where we deserved to be 14. Just one computer metric. I can't find one. That means it's all purely bias. Because the "eye-test" metrics are #1 a joke in baseball as you can't consume all the games and #2 those metrics favor us MORE. (See sonny and massey having us at #7).

 

[She Mate Me]

I'm removing names and name bias. I'm going strictly off numbers. It's not about measuring Mississippi State against our own expectations. It's about measuring everyone's entire body of work.

Considering we have 3 high Q2 losses by RPI, 0 in Q3/Q4, and 0 Q2/Q3/Q4 losses by those KPI/DSR... we actually have quite the impressive resume. If you strictly said DSR, we were 12-17 in Q1 and 10-0 in Q2. That's pretty elite with no bad losses. 9-12 range is where we mostly should have landed.

Like I said - show me the numbers where we deserved to be 14. Just one computer metric. I can't find one. That means it's all purely bias. Because the "eye-test" metrics are #1 a joke in baseball as you can't consume all the games and #2 those metrics favor us MORE. (See sonny and massey having us at #7).

I'll say this, and I've said it before. The data driven rankings that use scores are going to make us look good, because we have played a lot of close games with elite teams. We've proven we can be as good as those teams for the most of a game and can beat them a third of the time.

But I don't think the committee is going to give us a ton of credit for what looks to me like just too many times where we couldn't close the deal against the best teams.

No way we've earned a 9 or 10 seed. Two or three more wins and we're in the conversation for a Top 8 seed, but they just didn't do it.

Agree to disagree.