Crunching Numbers

[messageboardsuperhero]

It is pretty interesting to see the progress our offense made over the course of last season. When we made the QB switch, it was a very different group under Rogers than Costello. Basically two totally different offenses.

Turnovers went WAY down. We gave the ball up 19 times in Costello’s five starts, which is ridiculous. We only had 7 turnovers in Rogers’s six starts.

If you throw out the LSU aberration to start 2020, we averaged 10.8 PPG and 263 YPG in games 2-6. We averaged 27.4 and 360 YPG in games 7-11. By no means is that a great offense, but those numbers in the last five games of 2020 are pretty close to league average.

We also averaged a combined 5.8 yards per carry from our RBs against Auburn, Mizzou and Tulsa, so we were able to actually run the ball effectively by end of the year against three solid run defenses.

I think a lot of people, particularly in the media, kind of tuned out this team about halfway through the season and didn’t notice the progress. The narrative had already been set and is still there, but not many seem to notice that we were not a bad offense in November/December.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

Let’s examine Leach’s other stops.

TTU year 1: 25.4 PPG
TTU years 2-10: 32.5-43.8 PPG

WSU year 1: 20.4 PPG
WSU years 2-8: 31-38.2 PPG

MSU year 1: 21.4 PPG

So we are really on the same pace as every other Leach stop. Year one is always bad (20-25 PPG), but each of his other 16 seasons as a P5 coach average 30+ PPG. We were also dealing with worse first year circumstances than TTU and WSU.

No spring practice
Limited fall training camp and preseason workouts
All-SEC schedule
Youngest roster in P5

If we aren’t a TD per game better this season (28+ PPG), then we can start talking about whether this offense can work in the SEC.

 

[bulldognation]

Agree - you have to factor in the affect that an abbreviated season like last year due to Covid is gonna have on how fast that improvement takes to arrive. I think your +1 TD improvement is reasonable given the circumstances, and I wouldn't be surprised if it takes us another season to see the true 'year 2 jump' we are all hoping happens here.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

I think this team will be much improved this season. I expect 8 and 4, would be disappointed if its anything less than 7 and 5. Second time around basically for every player on the offense.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

Agree - you have to factor in the affect that an abbreviated season like last year due to Covid is gonna have on how fast that improvement takes to arrive. I think your +1 TD improvement is reasonable given the circumstances, and I wouldn't be surprised if it takes us another season to see the true 'year 2 jump' we are all hoping happens here.

Year 2 to 3 also has typically been a step up for Leach teams, although not as big as from year 1 to 2.

TTU year 1: 25.4 PPG, 363 YPG
TTU year 2: 33.5 PPG, 419 YPG
TTU year 3: 38.4 PPG, 488 YPG

WSU year 1: 20.4 PPG, 360 YPG
WSU year 2: 31 PPG, 421 YPG
WSU year 3: 31.8 PPG, 518 YPG

After year three they roll on pretty consistently as somewhere between above average offenses and elite offenses. We’ll have to see how his offense progresses here. The circumstances COVID dealt us made our growth stunted last year for sure.

But it does give me some hope that we appeared to come out of some of these growing pains at the end of last season.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

I think this team will be much improved this season. I expect 8 and 4, would be disappointed if its anything less than 7 and 5. Second time around basically for every player on the offense.

Our schedule is tricky. I’m thinking maybe 7-5 but would be fine with 6-6 too. Anything more is a great year. Anything less and Leach better take a significant step in 2022.