Covid theory.. with supporting date.

[Captain Ron]

Ok. So I know we are all sick of hearing about Sweden. I am using it as an example because a lot of the southern states are in about the same level of lockdown as as they are, except for masks.


Since they did not lock down completely, the virus ran its course there earlier than it did here. (The South). Testing was not as widespread early on so it is hard to compare actual cases then to cases that we see reported now. What we do have though which is really a much better data point, is Covid ICU bed usage.

View attachment 17315


You can see from the chart how quickly the virus spread unabated. They went from 267 ICU beds on March 30 to 522 by April 16. (You can infer how many people were actually infected if testing would have been widespread). They spent about 24 days averaging about 500 to 550 patients in ICU. From the end of that period, the numbers drop 35% in 3 weeks. Six weeks from the plateau, ICU Covid patients dropped 60%. They are down to 30 (not percent) total and have been averaging that for a couple of weeks.


Let’s see where we are with Florida as an example. Similar restrictions and based on anecdotal stories on the Pack, very little mask wear and tables of 15 having dinner. Florida started bumping up against 10k cases a day around July 2nd. They stayed on average at about 10k until about July 29. (28 days.. sound familiar?) Although they just reported less than 3000 cases today, the moving average has them with a 32% decline in 3 week from the plateau. Again, very similar and interesting pattern.

View attachment 17316


How about Bama? We see their first spike over 2000 around July 9. Although their cases seems to fluctuate a lot more than other states on the charts, the plateau ends around August 5, or about 26 days. (Hmmm) They are now looking at about a 30% drop from the plateau. (Maybe masks facilitated a quicker drop? Or could be demographics as counties with over 300k have been shown to be more likely to have outbreaks, ie florida)

)View attachment 17317


Mississippi and Georgia seem to be following the same pattern as the well. Georgia just had 2 days in a row below 2k cases. Ditto for South Carolina.


View attachment 17318




California is still a hot mess masks and all. Cases are up and down, but they still routinely keep popping 10k a day. How could this be?


Where you see these natural declines in any sort of similar populations, they have all reached about 25k cases per million. California is not there as they are still at about 16k per million. They are also in a stricter lockdown than most of the south which may be elongating the plateau it appears.


.View attachment 17319

View attachment 17320


It looks to me that it is more than just anecdotal evidence. If even close to valid, it does create quite the conundrum doesn’t it? If we basically have to reach 25k/million to start a SUSTAINABLE decline, short of keeping the hospitals from over flowing, how many restrictions on our life and for how long, are willing to accept to have us end up at the same place?

If I am 100% correct, I still don’t want to get it or give it to someone. I also don’t want to have 2020 turn into groundhog year. If Sweden continues to look as good as they do and our patterns continue to follow, when do we get back to normal?

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Nearly every graph I've seen indicates that "the virus will run its course" mantra was pretty much correct. We humans really like to suppose that we have way more control in the world than we actually do...

 

[GloryDawg]

for you that gives down votes for positive post explain why.

 

[EngDawg]

for you that gives down votes for positive post explain why.

It challenges their narrative about the Virus.
I’m not willing declare the worst behind us just yet, but there are certainly some encouraging signs that, though COVID will be with us in low level transition for sometime, this initial epidemic may be abating.

 

[Captain Ron]

It challenges their narrative about the Virus.
I’m not willing declare the worst behind us just yet, but there are certainly some encouraging signs that, though COVID will be with us in low level transition for sometime, this initial epidemic may be abating.

And I just read an article on CNBC. “Stubbornly high over 50k average.” True statement, but we are also about to have 2 days in a row at 35k cases. A 15k drop. . (There is that 30% again... ) Florida, Georgia and California are all about to have their lowest case count in a long time and deaths nationwide look to be around 500 for 2 days in a row. None of that made it into the story.. wonder why? Only bad news reportable?

 

[RocketDawg]

For what it's worth, California has about 40 million people, and most of them are along the southwestern coast and the Bay area. Pretty densely populated, so that could explain some of their situation. Sweden has about 10 million, the same as Georgia, and most are reasonably well off, not fat.

 

[Mobile Bay]

Nearly every graph I've seen indicates that "the virus will run its course" mantra was pretty much correct. We humans really like to suppose that we have way more control in the world than we actually do...

Man plans, God laughs.

I once swore to two of my professors I would never do what I do for a living or work for who I work for. God laughed. Gave me two ****** jobs before this one. One pushed my morals, the other tried to kill me. Then they came along and I am exactly where I swore I would never be.

 

[Captain Ron]

For what it's worth, California has about 40 million people, and most of them are along the southwestern coast and the Bay area. Pretty densely populated, so that could explain some of their situation. Sweden has about 10 million, the same as Georgia, and most are reasonably well off, not fat.

I don’t disagree that there are large differences in populations, that is one reason I broke it down by cases/million.

 

[archdog]

Like always, wash your hands, socially distance, wear a mask properly, and limit your exposure. Literally if everyone did this, other than extremely densely populated places like NYC, the numbers would fall. If you have been in contact with someone that just tested positive, 14 day quarantine. It is really simple. Like really simple. Some straight dumbasses couldn't mess this up, given the appropriate leadership.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Sweden Adult Diabetes rate 4.8%
Georgia Adult Diabetes rate 14%

If Sweden had took better care of the Vulnerable/Elderly in March/April, their Death numbers would be much lower.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

Short answer yes. Made the same observation as you earlier on CNBC.

 

[Mobile Bay]

Sweden Adult Diabetes rate 4.8%
Georgia Adult Diabetes rate 14%

If Sweden had took better care of the Vulnerable/Elderly in March/April, their Death numbers would be much lower.

If Sweden had better food they would catch up with Georgia. Waffle House >>>> Meatballs from Ikea. *****

 

[the dog is on the loose]

Covid,covid,covid,covid,covid,covid,covid,covid. Ok now I’m going to go run head first into a wall.

 

[Mr. Chen]

Another possible explanation is that there is a certain point where enough people in the community are infected that everyone else gets scared and starts to actually take it seriously. They start wearing masks and following the rules. The virus naturally dies down. There is a definite point where “it gets real” and everyone’s attitude seems to change.

 

[Captain Ron]

Another possible explanation is that there is a certain point where enough people in the community are infected that everyone else gets scared and starts to actually take it seriously. They start wearing masks and following the rules. The virus naturally dies down. There is a definite point where “it gets real” and everyone’s attitude seems to change.

I don’t doubt there is some of that, except some of the places mentioned don’t “have the rules” and surveys show very little mask wear. That is why I included their numbers as the baseline if you will.

I am not saying that doesn’t help, but it would be just as anecdotal as what I saw out around Atlanta this weekend where you would have never thought anything was different than 6 months ago..

 

[Captain Ron]

Bumped to update data.

Georgia and Sweden have very similar total populations, although Georgia has greater population density. The theory was that since Georgia had similar restrictions as Sweden that the hospitalization curves would follow the same trend. (I know, I know, it won’t work here)

As you can see, Georgia is (among other states in similar lockdown mode) is following Sweden’s decline. We are very close to days spent at the peak (about a month) down around 40% 3 weeks later.. 50% 5 weeks later. ER visits are continuing to trend down so I would expect this to continue.

Even with our contributing factors for death, our numbers are pretty close and trending in the same direction as well.

Here is the Georgia chart. Certainly the lockdown flattened the curve, but we are ending up at the same place.

View attachment 17761

Sweden

View attachment 17762

 

[Bulldawg77]

L4 will tell us wait til the end of September. Also today is two weeks from Labor Day and three weeks in school in session and numbers still continue to fall. Good news indeed. Sorry RonaBros

 

[JMC987]

Great post Ron. However, to answer your Q....

After the election. Democrats need the virus scare to get the mail in ballot election.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

The only hurdle left is late fall/winter. At some point early this summer, Covid19 went from a "novel coronavirus" to the 5th human coronavirus. It will never go away. It's just going to be another one of the 200+ colds we all get every fall and winter.

Those who have been exposed to it and other coronaviruses in the not too distant past will have T-cell protection that makes it much milder than those people who don't have the T-cells. As long as we are still testing, the cases will never go away. As long as we wear masks, practice a little bit of distancing, and protect the vulnerable the big spikes in cases and more importantly hospitalizations and deaths, will not get out of control this winter.

The vaccine will be ready for mass distribution by the spring it seems and that should tamp out any remaining fear. The only two things that can screw this up now is doing a victory dance on the way to the end zone and fumbling before the goaline or getting scared from small spikes in areas and forfeiting the game in the 4th quarter by going back into lockdown.

 

[engie]

Cases are spiking again all across Western Europe which went into extensive lockdown mode and managed to keep the total per capita cases low which many said were examples of what we should have done here. Almost like their drop in the numbers were a natural occurrence based on the seasons -- and all of these measures of control we are going thru are basically the rain dances of our ancestors.

And our numbers will see a natural decline as the weather in much of the country is now conducive to much more time outside. They'll begin to spike again in winter, I'm sure, but it's yet to be seen just how much juice this thing has left here.

 

[00Dawg]

Bama's fluctuations....

are due to some delays then catch-ups in reporting/collecting, changes in categorizations of tests more than once, and in at least one case, a failure to bring at least one sizable lab into the reporting fold until late summer, and then dropping all their data in at once.
It's driving the people trying to track things daily crazy, but to their credit, the state never promised to provide that kind of quality data feed to the public. It looks to me like the public health officials here are changing the rules on the data set to suit their needs in decision making, which I would actually prefer over trying to mollify the public/media. Now, you can debate about some of the choices they made...

 

[Captain Ron]

L4 will tell us wait til the end of September. Also today is two weeks from Labor Day and three weeks in school in session and numbers still continue to fall. Good news indeed. Sorry RonaBros

Actually, I think L4 realizes that there isn’t going to be a spike in deaths Sweden in the next 9 days as ICU numbers have been averaging about 15 for several weeks now.

I believe his acceptance of that came last night with his post. He has pivoted from “they did an awful job and wait till the end of Sept” to explaining why it won’t work here.

 

[Bulldawg77]

The only hurdle left is late fall/winter. At some point early this summer, Covid19 went from a "novel coronavirus" to the 5th human coronavirus. It will never go away. It's just going to be another one of the 200+ colds we all get every fall and winter.

Those who have been exposed to it and other coronaviruses in the not too distant past will have T-cell protection that makes it much milder than those people who don't have the T-cells. As long as we are still testing, the cases will never go away. As long as we wear masks, practice a little bit of distancing, and protect the vulnerable the big spikes in cases and more importantly hospitalizations and deaths, will not get out of control this winter.

The vaccine will be ready for mass distribution by the spring it seems and that should tamp out any remaining fear. The only two things that can screw this up now is doing a victory dance on the way to the end zone and fumbling before the goaline or getting scared from small spikes in areas and forfeiting the game in the 4th quarter by going back into lockdown.

I agree with some of this but I do feel that we are approaching here immunity or the virus has mutated to a point it's less lethal and or contagious as well as being less symptomatic. I absolutely hate how the deaths look when they go back weeks or moths at time to report those. Feels like fear mongers. Last but not least I still feel to a point it's political still. Yes it's real but so are other virus and sickness

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

I agree with some of this but I do feel that we are approaching here immunity or the virus has mutated to a point it's less lethal and or contagious as well as being less symptomatic. I absolutely hate how the deaths look when they go back weeks or moths at time to report those. Feels like fear mongers. Last but not least I still feel to a point it's political still. Yes it's real but so are other virus and sickness

I think you are correct in the mutation... My only hesitation is that our immune systems are weaker and the vast majority of respiratory viruses are "stronger" during cold weather. The CDC doesn't even bother tracking the flu from May - September every year. I think I read where 7-10 more hospitalizations/deaths occur during the winter vs summer from respiratory symptoms every year.

I think Australia is proof we can keep it down though, they virtually eliminated the flu this year by distancing etc... This is why I say this winter it's the last hurdle. I figure if we can keep on the current track for a few more months we will be done with this lockdown/shutdown **** forever.

 

[L4Dawg]

Actually, I think L4 realizes that there isn’t going to be a spike in deaths Sweden in the next 9 days as ICU numbers have been averaging about 15 for several weeks now.

I believe his acceptance of that came last night with his post. He has pivoted from “they did an awful job and wait till the end of Sept” to explaining why it won’t work here.

Let's see what their movement is in a week and a half. Actually what I was saying last night is that they probably did MORE to slow the spread than we have done. I've been saying that all along but all y'all look at is mandates.

 

[L4Dawg]

I agree with some of this but I do feel that we are approaching here immunity or the virus has mutated to a point it's less lethal and or contagious as well as being less symptomatic. I absolutely hate how the deaths look when they go back weeks or moths at time to report those. Feels like fear mongers. Last but not least I still feel to a point it's political still. Yes it's real but so are other virus and sickness

The reason the death rates have dropped is very simple. The average age of the infected has gone way down.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

Let's see what their movement is in a week and a half.

I can’t imagine how much this hurt you to not say “two weeks”. It’s a big step. We are proud of you. No one will judge you if you go ahead and admit you overreacted. In your own time, when you are comfortable. But do it before 9/26. It’s OK, everyone was a little wrong on this thing, no matter what stance they took initially.

 

[johnson86-1]

Let's see what their movement is in a week and a half. Actually what I was saying last night is that they probably did MORE to slow the spread than we have done. I've been saying that all along but all y'all look at is mandates.

They have done more sensible and effective things to manage the spread, but that is the point we have been trying to make to you Karens. We could have had kids in school. We could have had people making their own decision about what was prudent. We could have inflicted less economic harm, which is human harm, while not making the virus any worse. Instead we did a lot of pointless things to go along with a few significant coutnerproductive things, all while the Karen's pushing them delusionally thought they had the moral high ground as they were completely ignoring any sort of cost benefit analysis and viewing any sort of human compassion as stupidity and selfishness. And the next time a crisis or even a faux crisis strikes, they will have learned nothing and will again be out to inflict human misery while being completely convinced that they are the good guys and that people who disagree with them are stupid or evil.

 

[Uncle Ruckus]

Because we let our kids take ***** on road trips

 

[mcdawg22]

Because we let our kids take **** on road trips

Bwahahaha!!

 

[Bulldawg77]

The reason the death rates have dropped is very simple. The average age of the infected has gone way down.

Or ,or like you and the rest of you Rona boys club were just wrong from the start. I still hold to my opinion that you made up half the stuff you posted about regarding deaths and infections you knew. Based on your post you know more people that had it and died than most on here know that had it period. You Rona boys is hating life now that we are getting close to this being dealt with.

 

[fishwater99]

The only hurdle left is late fall/winter. At some point early this summer, Covid19 went from a "novel coronavirus" to the 5th human coronavirus. It will never go away. It's just going to be another one of the 200+ colds we all get every fall and winter.

Those who have been exposed to it and other coronaviruses in the not too distant past will have T-cell protection that makes it much milder than those people who don't have the T-cells. As long as we are still testing, the cases will never go away. As long as we wear masks, practice a little bit of distancing, and protect the vulnerable the big spikes in cases and more importantly hospitalizations and deaths, will not get out of control this winter.

The vaccine will be ready for mass distribution by the spring it seems and that should tamp out any remaining fear. The only two things that can screw this up now is doing a victory dance on the way to the end zone and fumbling before the goaline or getting scared from small spikes in areas and forfeiting the game in the 4th quarter by going back into lockdown.

So we have to wear mask forever now?

 

[ckDOG]

Are you saying human behavior doesn't influence R0?

Cases are spiking again all across Western Europe which went into extensive lockdown mode and managed to keep the total per capita cases low which many said were examples of what we should have done here. Almost like their drop in the numbers were a natural occurrence based on the seasons -- and all of these measures of control we are going thru are basically the rain dances of our ancestors.

And our numbers will see a natural decline as the weather in much of the country is now conducive to much more time outside. They'll begin to spike again in winter, I'm sure, but it's yet to be seen just how much juice this thing has left here.

I feel like the seasons must have some kind of influence (maybe UV exposure/warmth helps kill the virus, humans spend more time outside in ventilated space), but human behavior is controllable and will certainly have an impact on R0 even if those warm weather factors are removed. We can debate what's practical/effective all day, but how we act this winter very well could be the difference between coasting until vaccine distribution and worrying about healthcare stress again...

 

[Digging dog]

Just like everything else made in China.

 

[mcdawg22]

We need the Duke Boys to straighten them curves and flatten them hills in Georgia.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

So we have to wear mask forever now?

When I said late fall/winter that meant the rest of us get to take our masks off once that hurdle is cleared. I think I speak for most of the board when I say yes, you have to wear your mask forever... Or at least until Zed says you can take it off.

View attachment 17765

 

[L4Dawg]

They have done more sensible and effective things to manage the spread, but that is the point we have been trying to make to you Karens. We could have had kids in school. We could have had people making their own decision about what was prudent. We could have inflicted less economic harm, which is human harm, while not making the virus any worse. Instead we did a lot of pointless things to go along with a few significant coutnerproductive things, all while the Karen's pushing them delusionally thought they had the moral high ground as they were completely ignoring any sort of cost benefit analysis and viewing any sort of human compassion as stupidity and selfishness. And the next time a crisis or even a faux crisis strikes, they will have learned nothing and will again be out to inflict human misery while being completely convinced that they are the good guys and that people who disagree with them are stupid or evil.

Their high schoolers have just returned for the first time since march. Their people DID make prudent decisions without being forced to. We won't even do it with force. That's the whole point.

 

[L4Dawg]

Or ,or like you and the rest of you Rona boys club were just wrong from the start. I still hold to my opinion that you made up half the stuff you posted about regarding deaths and infections you knew. Based on your post you know more people that had it and died than most on here know that had it period. You Rona boys is hating life now that we are getting close to this being dealt with.

You are one sad individual.

 

[Bulldawg77]

You are one sad individual.

Me?? Ok Ronabro. Your the guy that has continually for 6 months propagated your Rona stuff on all message boards. I called out your lies and stories yet you still continue to bring as much negativity as you can find. I get it you enjoy the negative. But I'm the sick individual. Maybe just maybe your the sick individual. Most people on this board have called you out. I'm calling you out for your made up stories