I'm more than a little worried about inflation. There are going to be major shortages of most consumables come next year..the growing season is going to be an absolute mess...we might have an unemployment rate of 15% and none of them can or are willing to pick fruits and vegetables. All industry that is shut down now will be fighting for the limited supplies when things rev up again...there is going to be massive demand and free flowing cash and prices are going to skyrocket for some goods. Of course, most americans don't have saving anyway but those that do are going to be wasting it to keep their 2019 habits alive.
Covid 6.0
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I've shown the math. Spelled it out for you. If you can't follow along, can't think for yourself, and need a talking head in Washington to do that for you that tells all.
Ok...so I went through a bunch of national epidemiological sites and found an awesome one from Belgium. This is a mortality monitor for each country ending with this first week in April. The y-axis is a z-score which is a simplification of larger number sets, for example europe had a monthly peak of about 70k deaths in Jan...2017-2018, that corresponds to a z-score of 7-8 . A z-score of 4 is substantial increase in mortality, and a z-score of 8 is an unusual increase in mortality. Maybe a cause for hope or complaining from some is the cases of spain and italy, So far the worst, are actually trending to be identical to horrible flu season of 2017-2018...the peak was hit faster and obviously Covid hospitalizes more, and obviously society took extreme measures but it is interesting that the peaks of excess mortality ended approximately the same point at a z-score 8. For reference, It is also important to remember that the 2017-2018 flu season had an upper estimate of 90k deaths in the United States. So, it is very likely that we will see 90k deaths...and likely many younger people will die...hundreds. But the data says we will still have similar mortality to the 2017-2018 flu season... of course this is still in addition to our recent flu season, and we will likely layer on another horrible fall and winter when another wave hits next year.
Another interesting bit ...you can also seemingly predict the nations that will be hit hard by looking at this data going back in time as Spain, Italy, Switzerland, Belgium, and France had a very hard time with the 2017-2018 influenza...Denmark, Hungary, Ireland may get through it relatively well...
They are international because Americans won't work for $2 an hour...this allows them to outcompete any business that uses american workers, or even immigrants...they can still sell whatever to americans for a huge mark up and become millionaires and billionaires...our buying power is dramatically less than 30 years ago...even though there are more things to buy...there are many more extremely wealthy people, but fewer moderately or securely wealthy. The recommendation when I left college was 10% of your income for mortgage...on average that is sitting at 50-70% in 2020...average household is 60k in debt...can't afford a $400 emergency expense. I do think their needs to be a major withdraw from consumerism and come to terms with what is really important to life. Health, meaningful work, faith, family...these areas need to be treated like we treat water and energy. Either publicly managed or profit capped. And health is going to involved nutrition, exercise, and treatment.
This: "withdraw from consumerism"
Recently I have been thinking about how simple life was growing up. I am 60....so you all can paint the picture. We have become a spoiled, entitled, self-centered society. No longer do we keep " the main thing...the main thing."
I had to self-isolate for seven days last week. It was wonderful. I got some connections made for a couple of non-profits I am involved with etc. Side benefit.....didnt spend much money! Actually, isolation wasnt bad. If Noah could be on the ark for a year......I cant complain about being at home for 7 days with tv and internet. And snacks....lots of snacks
This: "habits" We have become a society that is not willing to sacrifice. When I think back of how we did what we could...with what we had...deprivation does not come to mind. Its the way it was.
What "tells all" is that you think you know more than the experts and are unwilling to share your credentials.
So far I've been right.
"But you didn't share your credentials," she screams into her pillow.
"But they're experts!!!!!!!"
You're going to have a really tough time reconciling how your experts mislead you.
Still waiting for all these hospitals to be full.
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Ignore the info and focus on a way to attack the messenger. Typical.
But muh credenshals!!!
You are right. I do live in bizarro world. It's called society today. That said, you seem to have more second hand information than me about the S. Korean police so you win. Most of my opinion is formed from past CNN news footage of what happened when somebody gets out of line. Fake news? The vision of a couple of cops beating the ever living sh## out of some poor schmuck with batons with no concern for the network camera recording them is stuck in my brain for some reason. It's as if they want the public to know this could happen to them and there won't be any repurcussions to the cops. Winking
I understand your outrage. What we have to realize is that it is very likely that most of their product is manufactured and sold overseas. I do think that there has to be a balancing act to allow masks etc to be available to other countrys' Medical teams. The information about them selling masks overseas was a direct attempt to illicit rage and it has worked. We don't have all of the facts as to who has what number of masks and who needs how many masks. I don't want to be seen as defending them, but we have to remember that there are many factors in play. Logistically getting masks etc to where they're needed is a hurdle as well and some countries have NOTHING. We have a role in the world and we can't totally desert other countries...other than China. To hell with them. Oh wait, they make most of the healthcare supplies for us..
We're in uncharted water here. What we did basically was to horrendously devalue our currency by increasing the money supply. It may not matter because other countries will probably be forced to do the same. People with hard assets (mostly the wealthy long term will probably be fine). Farmers may do okay because this should make our commodities cheaper relative to other countries and this should make their land more valuable in a longer time frame. What happens economically long term from this will be a very interesting academic study.
Low interest rates and printing money. We're trying desperately to do things to get people to borrow and spend money. Unfortunately I sold my Moneatary and Fiscal Analysis text book. It would be interesting to crack that baby back open and read it again.
The US needs to stop funding the WHO. These corrupt bastards do nothing but take our money, and then become the face for Chinese Propaganda.
Pray that the hospitals continue to "not be full" IF they're full that would mean that we don't have enough ICU beds and ventilators. LA I don't believe has reached their peak infection rate. I also think their lack of mass transit is in their favor as far as spread. New Orleans relies heavily on buses and of course New York has buses and the subway to spread the virus. LA also I don't think had as much of a problem with spring breakers.
People with hard assets will be fine? People with hard assets will be great. Money is just a valuation mechanism. Print more of it, the more of it that it takes to buy hard assets. All this wealth inequality that every one is so upset about is a direct result of all this deficit spending/easy money policy. People who own things gain as the dollar to asset ratio increases and people who don't own things still don't own things. The problem is that this crushes the responsible ones in the middle class who save, but have most of their savings in liquid assets whose value keeps decreasing in relation to hard assets.
I know. Our economy is a house of cards. It's a conundrum. Inflation in the long term is bad for poor people who tend to spend everything they make. But then so does the middle class by living a lifestyle they really can't afford. You have to live below your means if you want to be financially secure.
I'm not advocating for the hospitals to be full.
I'm pointing out that all these decisions are being made off terribly faulty "models."
There are a lot of problems with coastal academics who want to make decisions for the rest of the country.
Everyone's hero Dr Fauci had some extremely questionable advice/recommendations/explanations regarding HIV in NYC I've heard, but now he's a hero. We all remember how scary Aids and HIV was right? I've never met anyone who had it that I know of.
There are other ways to handle it... Will be interesting to see how it plays out. I know many of you are concerned they will all die, right?
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coro...s-approach-is-recipe-for-disaster/ar-BB122yz7
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coro...s-approach-is-recipe-for-disaster/ar-BB122yz7
Sure seems like some in the govt are drawing this out and being less than transparent.
Illinois won't release the number hospitalized patients because it's so low and doesn't fit the narrative.
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Agree on the military, it's not my preferred form of economic stimulus. I would be more into helping the Average Joe's of America.
Corporate bailouts will continue to happen, what do you want to do, collapse the Banking system in 2008 or let every major company losing money right now fail because of the Cornovirus? They did nothing wrong, and a lot of sectors were doing amazingly well before this ****. Think logically for a change. Your hate for Corporate America is shining through bud.
I don't disagree but the fundamentals of huge budget and fiscal deficits are the same. That can't sustain over the next 100 years unless we get our house in order.
Does he need to? I mean, maybe Lincoln, Omaha and Grand Island, but I think it's ok in other parts of the state. Not near the cases.
I agree 100%. I’m just saying that we do have the capacity to right our situation if we can ever find the resolve to do so.
Do stay at home orders include horny guys that live in Millard with gal pals who live in Bellevue? Asking for a friend. That might be a problem.
So granted, the economy looks MUCH different than 100 years ago, but interesting conclusions in this research.
http://news.mit.edu/2020/pandemic-health-response-economic-recovery-0401
The TLDR is
During the 1918 flu pandemic, we went through similar social distancing measures, closing things and such. The cities that opened back up more quickly tended to fare worse in the long term than the ones that kept protections for longer times. Manufacturing rebounded more slowly in the areas that opened for business quickly and banks struggled for a greater period.
http://news.mit.edu/2020/pandemic-health-response-economic-recovery-0401
The TLDR is
During the 1918 flu pandemic, we went through similar social distancing measures, closing things and such. The cities that opened back up more quickly tended to fare worse in the long term than the ones that kept protections for longer times. Manufacturing rebounded more slowly in the areas that opened for business quickly and banks struggled for a greater period.
Generally speaking people who have HIV don't advertise it. I know one guy who picked it up from IV drug use who is sober now and works in a trade. I don't believe any of his coworkers know. There's a lot more out there in rural communities than anybody could imagine. It's a huge problem in the "dance" community.
We have much better testing and control measures (disinfectants etc) than 1918 but you're right.
The county I live in I think has 1 case that I know of, so absolutely no reason to shutdown the entire state.
Not to mention it is calving season, guys are applying anhydrous and planters will be rolling in 3 weeks if it ever warms up. Good luck shutting all that down.
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