Covid 5.0

[SoFL Husker]

COVID 19 death rate is around 1.3% in US and let's be realistic that percentage is way high because so many have the virus, but show little or no symptoms
We're going to look back at this as one of the biggest over reactions in World History - the current percentages are very similar to Influenza
It has virtually destroyed a world economy in 3 months
Disclaimer: I am not a doctor, but I used to pay one years a go

Disclaimer: I am not a doctor, but I used to pay one years a go

Awesome!

Mass hysterical sheep. Media-induced frenzy. But it did kick the **** out of Italy and Spain. And China.

Moral of the Story. Don't eat bat ********.

GBR

 

[SoFL Husker]

COVID 19 death rate is around 1.3% in US and let's be realistic that percentage is way high because so many have the virus, but show little or no symptoms
We're going to look back at this as one of the biggest over reactions in World History - the current percentages are very similar to Influenza
It has virtually destroyed a world economy in 3 months
Disclaimer: I am not a doctor, but I used to pay one years a go

I had Covid in Dec, did a Z-pack didn't help. Sick for 2 weeks. Got over it.

Helluva flu season!!!

GBR

 

[MOHUSKER]

Lets hope it reflects how little we tested at the beginning compared to actually leading the curve.

 

[dinglefritz]

Lets hope it reflects how little we tested at the beginning compared to actually leading the curve.

exactly. I'm suspicious that there's a lot of sampling bias in that graph. I said 2 days ago when the started allowing other tests to be done that our number of test positives was going to go WAY up.

 

[Solana Beach Husker]

No way we see a 200-400x increase in the death rate in FL, as an example, to get even close to this projected death rate of 40-60k.

Let alone millions.

Sheep.

OMG.....you are looking at a CFR of about 10% for people over 60. Lets say there is a miracle and only 25% of the population is exposed. How many > 60 year olds are there in America....70 MILLION. 25% of 70 million is 16 million....10% of 16 million is 1.6 million. There are 95000 intensive care beds in the great America...the average death takes 2-8 weeks to occur. So each of these 1.6 million will likely either be thrown to the side or sit in a bed for weeks waiting to die. How many families will lose loved ones, not be able to see them at death, and not be able to have a funeral? I hope you don't get it because alcoholism is a risk factor for death with this virus...or stop drinking for a couple months.

 

[SoFL Husker]

OMG.....you are looking at a CFR of about 10% for people over 60. Lets say there is a miracle and only 25% of the population is exposed. How many > 60 year olds are there in America....70 MILLION. 25% of 70 million is 16 million....10% of 16 million is 1.6 million. There are 95000 intensive care beds in the great America...the average death takes 2-8 weeks to occur. So each of these 1.6 million will likely either be thrown to the side or sit in a bed for weeks waiting to die. How many families will lose loved ones, not be able to see them at death, and not be able to have a funeral? I hope you don't get it because alcoholism is a risk factor for death with this virus...or stop drinking for a couple months.

chartschartscharts

graphsgraphsgraphs

BSBSBSBSBSBS

 

[dinglefritz]

Dont Mess with Texas

We're not going to be completely shut down for 3 months. When we get past the 3 week mark and hopefully reach a point where new cases stop going up we can resume some normal activities while keeping the social distancing principles in effect. You don't have to totally shut down a city and some epidemiologists thinks that is actually harmful.

 

[SoFL Husker]

OMG.....you are looking at a CFR of about 10% for people over 60. Lets say there is a miracle and only 25% of the population is exposed. How many > 60 year olds are there in America....70 MILLION. 25% of 70 million is 16 million....10% of 16 million is 1.6 million. There are 95000 intensive care beds in the great America...the average death takes 2-8 weeks to occur. So each of these 1.6 million will likely either be thrown to the side or sit in a bed for weeks waiting to die. How many families will lose loved ones, not be able to see them at death, and not be able to have a funeral? I hope you don't get it because alcoholism is a risk factor for death with this virus...or stop drinking for a couple months.

Hey Solana, I doubt these charts lead to a political regime change, but keep on trying liberal bent agenda.

And I'm Independent.

 

[Hastings4Huskers]

But it's not the flu?

 

[SoFL Husker]

But it's not the flu?

Yes it is. Helluva flu, hit the Chinese hard cuz they ate bat ******** and sent it overseas to Italy/Spain/Korea/etc.

This is what we know so far.

I doubt the rest of the exponential equation.

Every flu season has a Bell Curve.

GBR

 

[Headcard]

Yes it is. Helluva flu, hit the Chinese hard cuz they ate bat ******** and sent it overseas to Italy/Spain/Korea/etc.

This is what we know so far.

I doubt the rest of the exponential equation.

Every flu season has a Bell Curve.

GBR

You do know it is NOT the flu right? Stating it is, is ignorant.

 

[Headcard]

COVID 19 death rate is around 1.3% in US and let's be realistic that percentage is way high because so many have the virus, but show little or no symptoms
We're going to look back at this as one of the biggest over reactions in World History - the current percentages are very similar to Influenza
It has virtually destroyed a world economy in 3 months
Disclaimer: I am not a doctor, but I used to play one years ago

Flu death rate is .1%.

 

[Headcard]

I saved this for the last of the hysterical masses. Call me whatever you want, just don't say I am bad at math...

There is no doubt what so ever that you are in fact bad at Math.

 

[cornhead1]

Do you really think that there are only 45K with the virus right now in US?

 

[dinglefritz]

Do you really think that there are only 45K with the virus right now in US?

There's likely 10X that many right now and will be 20X that many tomorrow.

 

[Harry Caray]

You can't just look at total numbers - U.S. has a much larger population than all European countries. The whole country of Spain has about the same number of people as California.

Per Capita, the number of American cases/deaths is far lower than Europe. In addition, half of all American cases are in one area (New York).

 

[Headcard]

Do you really think that there are only 45K with the virus right now in US?

 

[cornhead1]

given that assumption of 10x 45K we are at currently at 550 deaths and 450,000 cases .12%

 

[HUSKERFAN66]

Might be one of times I agree with soflhusker

 

[Husker.Wed._rivals]

I perceive the whole shelter in place thing is losing steam. You cant keep Americans out of their bars, restaurants, gyms, etc. for long. Like the Lt Gov from Texas says, more Americans would rather risk death than be prohibited from getting a pitcher and plate of hot wings. I give it two weeks before businesses are back open.

 

[NorthwoodHusker]

You can't just look at total numbers - U.S. has a much larger population than all European countries. Per Capita, the number of American cases/deaths is far lower than Europe. In addition, half of all American cases are in one area (New York).

Per capita.
I didn't want to have to point out Italy has less than one fifth our population.

 

[mwulf]

I perceive the whole shelter in place thing is losing steam. You cant keep Americans out of their bars, restaurants, gyms, etc. for long. Like the Lt Gov from Texas says, more Americans would rather risk death than be prohibited from getting a pitcher and plate of hot wings. I give it two weeks before businesses are back open.

I know the latest press conference was a bit of a mess but in the end it will be up to the states... Correct? I know the president wants things back to normal as soon as possible but states don't actually have to follow his wants. Right?

 

[SoFL Husker]

There's likely 10X that many right now and will be 20X that many tomorrow.

I agree. That makes, say 10k Covid deaths in the US?

 

[SoFL Husker]

Might be one of times I agree with soflhusker

Thanks for reading the damn math Sir.

 

[SoFL Husker]

given that assumption of 10x 45K we are at currently at 550 deaths and 450,000 cases .12%

I doubt 45k deaths because of Social Distancing

 

[PeliniTheCrutch_rivals294365]

Wasted again and having another conversation with himself...

I actually respect the wasted again part.

 

[SoFL Husker]

Wasted again and having another conversation with himself...

I actually respect the wasted again part.

I am easily bored.

This has brought out the true "analyst" in SoFL Husker

That's why I get paid Pelini. That's why I sold my Dad's biz and moved to FL.

I need a black couch

 

[cornhustler]

getting a pitcher and plate of hot wings

"Give me a pitcher of beer and plate of hot wings or give me death.
- Patrick Henry, American Patriot and lover of the good things.

 

[NorthwoodHusker]

I know the latest press conference was a bit of a mess but in the end it will be up to the states... Correct? I know the president wants things back to normal as soon as possible but states don't actually have to follow his wants. Right?

It depends. Thats how the president prefers it, others want him to use owers hes readied himself to do,speeding it along, and doing it right,so no impeachment or things like that, a cya move, plus he can call for a national martial law.
But currently, it's up to the states, as the prsident wants it that way.

And let me clarify, these are actions taken, no names,no politics etc, it's just to explain where we currently are.

 

[Husker.Wed._rivals]

I know the latest press conference was a bit of a mess but in the end it will be up to the states... Correct? I know the president wants things back to normal as soon as possible but states don't actually have to follow his wants. Right?

I'm not so much thinking about the President even though I can tell he is getting antsy, i meant people I talk to, people I see on TV, people defying gathering restrictions, etc.

 

[cornhead1]

I doubt 45k deaths because of Social Distancing

45K deaths? 550 deaths and 45K cases

 

[NorthwoodHusker]

I'm not so much thinking about the President even though I can tell he is getting antsy, i meant people I talk to, people I see on TV, people defying gathering restrictions, etc.

Every day, more damage ecrues. The delay only makes it worse. The fda makes it worse.
We (some of us) are acting like these are normal times in these very abnormal days.

 

[dinglefritz]

OMG.....you are looking at a CFR of about 10% for people over 60. Lets say there is a miracle and only 25% of the population is exposed. How many > 60 year olds are there in America....70 MILLION. 25% of 70 million is 16 million....10% of 16 million is 1.6 million. There are 95000 intensive care beds in the great America...the average death takes 2-8 weeks to occur. So each of these 1.6 million will likely either be thrown to the side or sit in a bed for weeks waiting to die. How many families will lose loved ones, not be able to see them at death, and not be able to have a funeral? I hope you don't get it because alcoholism is a risk factor for death with this virus...or stop drinking for a couple months.

I liked your post BUT there's no way we're even going as high as your best case scenario. Go read your Bible the LA Times's article by Joe Mizono. He quotes Michael Levitt a Stanford Nobel winning biophysicist. He correctly predicted the number of cases and fatality rate in the China outbreak. He is saying that the key is social distancing. Not quarantines. Not locking people in their houses. With just social distancing and proper hygiene we can slow this down to a bearable level. The cases we're seeing now in New York are the result of Cuomo doing nothing for several weeks. IMO SoFLHusker's numbers are going to be closer to correct than yours because of the measures most states are taking.

I fear for Texas because of their reluctance to make changes but just the media blast has made individuals take more responsibility for their own health. The key according to Levitt is social distancing. Not locking people in their homes. Then once the escalation of cases is constrained the key will CONTINUE to be social distancing for months.

 

[slwags_rivals53212]

I perceive the whole shelter in place thing is losing steam. You cant keep Americans out of their bars, restaurants, gyms, etc. for long. Like the Lt Gov from Texas says, more Americans would rather risk death than be prohibited from getting a pitcher and plate of hot wings. I give it two weeks before businesses are back open.

in two weeks at the current rate of increase the country will be around 10 million cases and 100,000 deaths.

 

[GBRforLife1]

Yes it is. Helluva flu, hit the Chinese hard cuz they ate bat ******** and sent it overseas to Italy/Spain/Korea/etc.

This is what we know so far.

I doubt the rest of the exponential equation.

Every flu season has a Bell Curve.

GBR

"Bat ********" LMAO I don't care who you are, that's funny. Unless you eat bat ********.

 

[dinglefritz]

I know the latest press conference was a bit of a mess but in the end it will be up to the states... Correct? I know the president wants things back to normal as soon as possible but states don't actually have to follow his wants. Right?

Unless there's law passed by Congress I think the states would have the power to do what they want within their own constitutions. I don't know what the President's powers pertain to in dealing with a crisis during a declared emergency.

 

[GBRforLife1]

Flu death rate is .1%.

According to you that must mean 330,000 die every year from it.

 

[ZaneHickey]

GBR

https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year

That's all well and good. My question is about H1N1. Who was the racist pig that named it Swine Flu!?Winking

 

[GBRforLife1]

To all the single men here...If some smokin hawt chick wanted to go out with you right now, and by "go out" I mean, come over for a bottle of wine, or whiskey, whatever your firewater of choice is....do you let her? Or do you play it safe and decline, and hope she'll still want to when this passes? I let her, and risk it. What say ya'll?

She's already here.

 

[dinglefritz]

China has been dealing with this outbreak since late December at least. They supposedly are at over 350,000 cases and a little over 16000 deaths. That's a far cry from SBH's estimates. I would hope we can do better than China. Make no mistake this is going to get very ugly especially in New York because of their population density and how little they did early on but nationally just social distancing and self quarantine is going to help us immensely.