Confirmed: Ash is back next year

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RUSK97

All-American
Dec 28, 2007
10,460
6,551
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Grow the war chest by making millions less in revenue from tickets, parking, seat gifts, etc. Makes sense.
In 2019, B1G payout goes from 12MM to 21MM or something like that IIRC. That goes a long way to offset the lost revenue.
 

krup

Heisman
Feb 5, 2003
70,133
10,066
0
The decision facing Hobbs and the admin isn't about what happened 4 years ago. It's about the right decision to make today, based on the numbers today and the plans and projections going forward. They can (and should) consider history insofar as they can learn from it. But that's about it.

And you said "the next five" years. Which is what the decision should be based on; not the past.

If we hired a big name coach, that would immediately create a reversal of ticket losses. If a bunch of 4 star recruits came to play for that coach, that would speed the reversal. That would all happen before we even play the first game of the new coach's tenure.

The realities of the situation, for example the fact that those new players wouldn't necessarily be contributing right away, will not diminish the impact of the big time hire and big time recruits. Because fan bases are not logical. They are emotional. They will come back in droves filled with excitement.

They'll be let down a bit when we keep loosing at first. But they'll mostly hang around because they will want to be part of the resurgence and will want good seats to view it all.
The revenue loss simply going forward is likely to at least equal what they are “saving” by paying Ash for another year.

I totally disagree with your idea that winning will bring the numbers back. The generational differences in what people like to do are huge. If they lose the people in their 30’s and 40’s, the demographics behind them do not have the same interests and will not be rushing to buy Rutgers season tickets even if they win.
 

mildone_rivals

Heisman
Dec 19, 2011
55,607
51,272
0
The revenue loss simply going forward is likely to at least equal what they are “saving” by paying Ash for another year.

I totally disagree with your idea that winning will bring the numbers back. The generational differences in what people like to do are huge. If they lose the people in their 30’s and 40’s, the demographics behind them do not have the same interests and will not be rushing to buy Rutgers season tickets even if they win.
I hope we get a chance to find out. Hopefully we will start winning again soon.
 

Hondo77

Senior
Nov 18, 2001
2,804
957
0
I bet plenty of people said similar things about Schiano in his first few years.

In any event, Hobbs has all the budget numbers. He has access to all the current and prior season actual ticket numbers. He has access to consultants who can model best and worst case revenue projections. He has access to various other data involving areas of athletic department spending that aren't strictly related to football. There may be all kinds of variables we don't know about, including various existing financial plans for which it pays to stay on track and not incur additional debt.

You guys want this to be a simple problem revolving around your happiness as football fans. I get it. I wish it was that simple too. But wishing doesn't make it so.

Maybe the numbers say to fire Ash now and that will happen. Let's wait and see what happens.
That makes sense. Well done.

You have no place on this board.
 

krup

Heisman
Feb 5, 2003
70,133
10,066
0
It sucks I get it. But this isn’t an unexpected kick in the nuts. If you thought otherwise, you were just fooling yourself.
No, I expected it. It is just that as someone whose degree from RU is in Economics, the shortsighted financial decisions get me very worked up.
 
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Letitrip

All-Conference
Sep 4, 2007
2,389
4,227
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The decision facing Hobbs and the admin isn't about what happened 4 years ago. It's about the right decision to make today, based on the numbers today and the plans and projections going forward. They can (and should) consider history insofar as they can learn from it. But that's about it.

And you said "the next five" years. Which is what the decision should be based on; not the past.

If we hired a big name coach, that would immediately create a reversal of ticket losses. If a bunch of 4 star recruits came to play for that coach, that would speed the reversal. That would all happen before we even play the first game of the new coach's tenure.

The realities of the situation, for example the fact that those new players wouldn't necessarily be contributing right away, will not diminish the impact of the big time hire and big time recruits. Because fan bases are not logical. They are emotional. They will come back in droves filled with excitement.

They'll be let down a bit when we keep loosing at first. But they'll mostly hang around because they will want to be part of the resurgence and will want good seats to view it all.
You are too close to the program and are really under estimating the disgust from the fan base. I am sure Hobbs is making the same mistake. Just watch what happens if Ash stays.
 

koleszar

Heisman
Jan 1, 2010
37,561
59,148
113
Perhaps. I can't speak authoritatively to Barchi's interest in having a winning football program at RU. For sure he has bigger, more important fish to fry as the president of a large state university.

But I have to think that, regardless of his interest in winning at football, the financial case that can be made for winning would be compelling to Barchi, if made at the right time. The problem is any move we make carries risk. If Hobbs, Barchi and the BOG weigh potential risks vs. potential ROI, the numbers might favor waiting another year or two before incurring a risky expenditure.

Or it might not. Let's wait until this time next week and see what we see.
You know when the times going to be right? Two years. That's when Barchi will complete his only mission for Rutgers Athletics, elimination of Direct Institutional support. He'll then retire with the only legacy he ever wanted to be known for in Athletic endeavors as that's when his new contract runs out.
 

mildone_rivals

Heisman
Dec 19, 2011
55,607
51,272
0
Unfortunately, when you look at the trend in our recruiting it is hard to see how it will be soon.
True. Only way to speed things up is to hire a big name coach. Which everybody says will never happen.

I'm not so sure it won't ever happen. Never is a long time. One can point at successful football programs and see the tangible and intangible benefits, including obvious financial benefits.

RU has gone cheap with it's hires forever. But we haven't always been in the Big Ten. I have to think that an analysis that includes a full share of Big Ten TV money, combined with projections for what having a winning Big Ten football program could mean, combined with continued, expensive, misfires in coach hires have cost, will eventually suggest a dramatically different approach to the administration.

A boy can hope, right?
 
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mildone_rivals

Heisman
Dec 19, 2011
55,607
51,272
0
You are too close to the program and are really under estimating the disgust from the fan base. I am sure Hobbs is making the same mistake. Just watch what happens if Ash stays.
I doubt Hobbs is making that mistake. For all we know, he could be basing decisions on having a fully empty stadium for two seasons. Again, we don't know all the various financial plans for the athletic department, and the university at large. And without knowing that, we don't really know what the "right" financial decision is at the moment.

The football program doesn't exist in a vacuum. It's part of a much larger institution whose primary goal is higher education - not football.

We also still do not know if Ash will be here or not. I think people should calm down and wait another week before venting their spleens based on an article from the often incorrect NJ.COM website.
 

mildone_rivals

Heisman
Dec 19, 2011
55,607
51,272
0
You know when the times going to be right? Two years. That's when Barchi will complete his only mission for Rutgers Athletics, elimination of Direct Institutional support. He'll then retire with the only legacy he ever wanted to be known for in Athletic endeavors as that's when his new contract runs out.
That's entirely possible. Lucky for me, as I race my way through middle age, I find that years are going by really, really, really fast. :)
 
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krup

Heisman
Feb 5, 2003
70,133
10,066
0
True. Only way to speed things up is to hire a big name coach. Which everybody says will never happen.

I'm not so sure it won't ever happen. Never is a long time. One can point at successful football programs and see the tangible and intangible benefits, including obvious financial benefits.

RU has gone cheap with it's hires forever. But we haven't always been in the Big Ten. I have to think that an analysis that includes a full share of Big Ten TV money, combined with projections for what having a winning Big Ten football program could mean, combined with continued, expensive, misfires in coach hires have cost, will eventually suggest a dramatically different approach to the administration.

A boy can hope, right?
I think the additional year is a mistake for this other reason. We have a decent amount of sophomore talent. If we got a new coach now, even if it is not a big name, that coach would have a partial 2019 class and full 2020 class to add to that sophomore class talent and potentially make a decent team in the 2020 season.

Now, by wasting that soph class on another year with Ash, we are pretty much insuring that any new coach is starting completely from scratch.
 
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koleszar

Heisman
Jan 1, 2010
37,561
59,148
113
We also still do not know if Ash will be here or not. I think people should calm down and wait another week before venting their spleens based on an article from the often incorrect NJ.COM website.
I seriously believe this might be a preemptive strike by Hobbs to lesson the blow for when his press conference takes place and he announces Ash's return. Guys a former ombudsman and has stopped all leaks from the athletic department. Now all of a sudden a leak, a week from the end of the season? Seems fishy to me.
 

MikeRU09

All-Conference
Jan 30, 2010
2,591
3,161
108
Ehhhh...I’ll give Hobbs the benefit of the doubt. I still think he has a brain. I will wait until he says something regarding Ash to judge. I got to tell you one thing...the man desperately wants to be liked...he probably doesn’t like the fact that most of country thinks he is the most incompetent dumbass in college sports. Didn’t take him long to attain that title. He has a chance to repair his reputation. I also have faith in the big donors...

I am the biggest die hard out there...but I am just at the poInt where I don’t enjoy this anymore..and frankly, I do not think I am alone...
 

Letitrip

All-Conference
Sep 4, 2007
2,389
4,227
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I doubt Hobbs is making that mistake. For all we know, he could be basing decisions on having a fully empty stadium for two seasons. Again, we don't know all the various financial plans for the athletic department, and the university at large. And without knowing that, we don't really know what the "right" financial decision is at the moment.

The football program doesn't exist in a vacuum. It's part of a much larger institution whose primary goal is higher education - not football.

We also still do not know if Ash will be here or not. I think people should calm down and wait another week before venting their spleens based on an article from the often incorrect NJ.COM website.
In all due respect I think you are over analyzing the situation. And if you are not and this is being looked at by RU leaders as some big picture university thing then it will never be fixed and we are still playing little three football in a P5 League.
 

mildone_rivals

Heisman
Dec 19, 2011
55,607
51,272
0
I seriously believe this might be a preemptive strike by Hobbs to lesson the blow for when his press conference takes place and he announces Ash's return. Guys a former ombudsman and has stopped all leaks from the athletic department. Now all of a sudden a leak, a week from the end of the season? Seems fishy to me.
I think it's more likely a combination of NJ.COM looking to boost it's ratings by talking to a couple people who really have no clue what's going to happen. But what you say is certainly possible, albeit a bit Machiavellian.
 

Letitrip

All-Conference
Sep 4, 2007
2,389
4,227
66
Ehhhh...I’ll give Hobbs the benefit of the doubt. I still think he has a brain. I will wait until he says something regarding Ash to judge. I got to tell you one thing...the man desperately wants to be liked...he probably doesn’t like the fact that most of country thinks he is the most incompetent dumbass in college sports. Didn’t take him long to attain that title. He has a chance to repair his reputation. I also have faith in the big donors...

I am the biggest die hard out there...but I am just at the poInt where I don’t enjoy this anymore..and frankly, I do not think I am alone...
He has a brain - unfortunately he has an ego to match and a basketball only upbringing that makes this likely mistake so devastating to the program.
 

chase07470

All-American
Oct 16, 2010
10,118
8,378
113
Now I don’t have to waste money on season tickets anymore. What a loser program we are.

So ridiculously stupid. Now we’ll have no recruits, no fans, no wins, and we’ll have to fire him next season.

Barchi and Hobbs truly are buffoons.
I thought you died. Didn't I read somewhere Magoo from RU mboard's died? Anyway, glad you're still here.
 

G- RUnit

All-American
Sep 13, 2004
14,379
7,977
113
Ehhhh...I’ll give Hobbs the benefit of the doubt. I still think he has a brain. I will wait until he says something regarding Ash to judge. I got to tell you one thing...the man desperately wants to be liked...he probably doesn’t like the fact that most of country thinks he is the most incompetent dumbass in college sports. Didn’t take him long to attain that title. He has a chance to repair his reputation. I also have faith in the big donors...

I am the biggest die hard out there...but I am just at the poInt where I don’t enjoy this anymore..and frankly, I do not think I am alone...

Hobbs has not done anything to be given the benefit of the doubt.
Also just as big a diehard. Don’t kid yourself.
 

Letitrip

All-Conference
Sep 4, 2007
2,389
4,227
66
I seriously believe this might be a preemptive strike by Hobbs to lesson the blow for when his press conference takes place and he announces Ash's return. Guys a former ombudsman and has stopped all leaks from the athletic department. Now all of a sudden a leak, a week from the end of the season? Seems fishy to me.
You may very well be right. He is clearly more of a political person - how else could someone with his resume get to lead a Big Ten athletic program.
 
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RUfromNJ

All-Conference
Oct 23, 2007
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Letitrip

All-Conference
Sep 4, 2007
2,389
4,227
66
The revenue loss simply going forward is likely to at least equal what they are “saving” by paying Ash for another year.

I totally disagree with your idea that winning will bring the numbers back. The generational differences in what people like to do are huge. If they lose the people in their 30’s and 40’s, the demographics behind them do not have the same interests and will not be rushing to buy Rutgers season tickets even if they win.
You are on to something with the demographic realities - the recent fanbase is far less tolerant than prior groups. I am in a prior group and if Ash is retained my group of 16 has already decided to do winery tours next fall. lol
 
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Knight Shift

Heisman
May 19, 2011
89,547
87,517
113
He has a brain - unfortunately he has an ego to match and a basketball only upbringing that makes this likely mistake so devastating to the program.
Some of you guys have to to get a grip with the "basketball only" narrative.

Louisville's Athletic Director had no background in athletics when hired. He was formerly a businessman. He played baseball for University of Kentucky. He had no basketball or football background. He fired Bobby Petrino.
Notre Dame's AD is a lawyer. He never served as an AD before becoming AD of Notre Dame in 2008. Has not seemed to have hurt Notre Dame football.
Oklahoma State's AD has a background in golf.
Purdue's AD has a baseball background, and was AD at Georgia Tech before taking the same role at Purdue .

I could go on, but you will just let it rip anyway. Being an AD at a university with a football program is not rocket science.
 
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RUfromNJ

All-Conference
Oct 23, 2007
4,449
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get ready for under 15K season tickets Patty
Since this admin doesn’t care about filling the building, can we move the students back to old corner and tarp the “new” endzone off for ad space? I’m sure companies would line up to pay tens of dollars for that kind of exposure!
 
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RutgHoops

Heisman
Aug 14, 2008
9,239
12,410
102
By my figuring we are down 4-5 million in ticket/seat gift revenue annually since our first B1G year. Another loss of 5000 tickets will be another 2 million lost.

Only Rutgers would forego 6 million in additional revenue to save 2 million in costs.

Our AD ticket revenue since entry in the B1G:

2015: $13.8M
2016: $13.7M
2017: $12.8M
 

krup

Heisman
Feb 5, 2003
70,133
10,066
0
Some of you guys have to to get a grip with the "basketball only" narrative.

Louisville's Athletic Director had no background in athletics when hired. He was formerly a businessman. He played baseball for University of Kentucky. He had no basketball or football background. He fired Bobby Petrino.
Notre Dame's AD is a lawyer. He never served as an AD before becoming AD of Notre Dame in 2008. Has not seemed to have hurt Notre Dame football.
Oklahoma State's AD has a background in golf.
Purdue's AD has a baseball background, and was AD at Georgia Tech before taking the same role at Purdue .

I could go on, but you will just let it rip anyway. Being an AD at a university with a football program is not rocket science.
Nothing wrong with your post, except that i threw up in my mouth a little bit when I read about the Ok St AD having a background in golf.
 
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krup

Heisman
Feb 5, 2003
70,133
10,066
0
Our AD ticket revenue since entry in the B1G:

2015: $13.8M
2016: $13.7M
2017: $12.8M
We joined the B1G in the 2014 season. I was talking about the drop from 2014 to 2018 and you are only giving part of that story. In addition, does your ticket revenue number include seat gifts?
 
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