Collins BEHIND SCHEDULE with respect MULTIPLE predecessors

[FeliSilvestris]

CCC is definitely BEHIND SCHEDULE, as compared to how each of his immediate THREE predecessors did by his second season.

The numbers tell the story.

By his second season, Byrdsong won FIVE (of 18) B1G games -- what then seemed unreal -- and earned the cat's second ever NIT bid. Suffice it to say that in SEVEN seasons, coaching legend Bill Foster never managed to win more than 3 B1G games, and most seasons won exactly 2. If we use 2 as the reference number of wins during BF's regime, by his second year Byrdsong won two-hundred-fifty percent that figure, and almost doubled BF's max number of B1G wins in any one season (3). 5 B1G wins was HUGE for NU, back then, and came in RB's SECOND season.

Kevin O'Neill also made significant improvements by his second season (over the level he found). He won six (of 16) B1G games, and earned another NIT berth. 6 was one more win than RB's best B1G season, and in only 16 tries (vs RB's 18). Furthermore it was triple the number of B1G wins during each RB's final two seasons (again in a shorter conference season). A 6-10 (2 games under .500) B1G record was HUGE for NU back then, and came in KO's second season.

BC also achieved by his second season a significant improvement over the level in which he found the program. He went 7-9 (just one game under .500) in the B1G. That was one win over KO's best season, and a huge improvement over KO's final season (in which he won zero B1G game). If we ignore KO's final season as an anomaly, his average number of B1G win was 4.5 (of 16). BC could at best improve 11.5 over that level (if he won every B1G game). By his second season he achieved an improvement of 7-4.5=2.5 which is 22% of the maximum possible improvement he could have achieved (by winning every B1G game).

By the end of his second season, CC has won 6 B1G games (of 18), same as in his first season. If we ignore BC's final season as an injury-caused anomaly (as we did in the case of KO), the program representative number of B1G wins under BC was 7.5 (of 18) plus an NIT bid. CC's maximal possible improvement over that would be 18-7.5=10.5. He instead fell 1.5 games below BC's typical B1G level.

OBVIOUSLY CC IS BEHIND SCHEDULE.

Of course no one is arguing he should be fired. He simply hasn't YET improved the cats B1G w/l record over their previous typical level(as did all three of his recent predecessors).

P.S. All his predecessors played their second season mostly with the previous coach's players, who were recruited for a difference system of play, and all faced some level of adversity (key injuries, transfers, etc).

P.P.S. All 3 recent predecessors actually suffer a significant drop in performance in their third season. Let us hope history won't repeat itself.

 

[Gladeskat]

Originally posted by FeliSilvestris:
CCC is definitely BEHIND SCHEDULE, as compared to how each of his immediate THREE predecessors did by his second season.

The numbers tell the story.

By his second season, Byrdsong won FIVE (of 18) B1G games -- what then seemed unreal -- and earned the cat's second ever NIT bid. Suffice it to say that in SEVEN seasons, coaching legend Bill Foster never managed to win more than 3 B1G games, and most seasons won exactly 2. If we use 2 as the reference number of wins during BF's regime, by his second year Byrdsong won two-hundred-fifty percent that figure, and almost doubled BF's max number of B1G wins in any one season (3). 5 B1G wins was HUGE for NU, back then, and came in RB's SECOND season.

Kevin O'Neill also made significant improvements by his second season (over the level he found). He won six (of 16) B1G games, and earned another NIT berth. 6 was one more win than RB's best B1G season, and in only 16 tries (vs RB's 18). Furthermore it was triple the number of B1G wins during each RB's final two seasons (again in a shorter conference season). A 6-10 (2 games under .500) B1G record was HUGE for NU back then, and came in KO's second season.

BC also achieved by his second season a significant improvement over the level in which he found the program. He went 7-9 (just one game under .500) in the B1G. That was one win over KO's best season, and a huge improvement over KO's final season (in which he won zero B1G game). If we ignore KO's final season as an anomaly, his average number of B1G win was 4.5 (of 16). BC could at best improve 11.5 over that level (if he won every B1G game). By his second season he achieved an improvement of 7-4.5=2.5 which is 22% of the maximum possible improvement he could have achieved (by winning every B1G game).

By the end of his second season, CC has won 6 B1G games (of 18), same as in his first season. If we ignore BC's final season as an injury-caused anomaly (as we did in the case of KO), the program representative number of B1G wins under BC was 7.5 (of 18) plus an NIT bid. CC's maximal possible improvement over that would be 18-7.5=10.5. He instead fell 1.5 games below BC's typical B1G level.

OBVIOUSLY CC IS BEHIND SCHEDULE.

Of course no one is arguing he should be fired. He simply hasn't YET improved the cats B1G w/l record over their previous typical level(as did all three of his recent predecessors).

P.S. All his predecessors played their second season mostly with the previous coach's players, who were recruited for a difference system of play, and all faced some level of adversity (key injuries, transfers, etc).

P.P.S. All 3 recent predecessors actually suffer a significant drop in performance in their third season. Let us hope history won't repeat itself.

CC isn't competing against anybody's record! BEHIND SCHEDULE FOR WHAT?!! Not making the NCAA tournament? All the preceding coaches failed to get to the NCAA tournament.

All CC has to do is get NU into the NCAA tournament, and then do so on a somewhat frequent basis. Those are his stated goals. Give him a few years to recruit players for his system and stop with your ridiculous turd-in-the-punchbowl posts! Sheesh!

This post was edited on 3/15 1:35 AM by Gladeskat

 

[Turk_rivals223269]

IMO, CC has done far better than the other coaches you cited. In the second year, CC had to start 3 starters who were freshmen. Several of the BC players moved on or didn't join CC.

More importantly, CC has done far better than all those coaches, combined, in recruiting. Only one year of recruiting and another good bag of recruits coming in, and these are times that NU just hasn't seen.

Maybe a NIT run next year. Could be NCAA but I think NCAA is two years away.

 

[VirginiaWildcat]

Doesn't already have the highest conference winning percentage of any coach in the last 40 years? Doesn't seem behind schedule to me.

 

[realcatfan]

Nothing to see here. Just move along and ignore this ahole.

 

[Catreporter]

Remember Felis is the guy blasting NU for hiring "inexperienced" coaches. He would have liked a guy maybe like Oliver Purnell who helped turn Dayton and Clemson into NCAA teams (although he never actually won a tourney game with them). Purnell just finished losing 105 games in five seasons at DePaul with far less restrictions on who he could recruit to get the job done. He has the same criticism of the Fitz hire. "Experience" isn't always the answer.

 

[NUCat320]

Geez, I hate ALL CAPS.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Is this for real? It cannot possibly be?

There is a simple reason why the world's fastest growing economy each year is some country like Botswana, Eritrea or St Kitts.

 

[pawildcat_rivals209725]

By all means, let's accentuate the negative.

Collins is obviously a major improvement on the recruiting trail, and I say that as a guy who liked BC.

This post was edited on 3/15 12:59 PM by pawildcat

 

[Walker Fan]

This post is ridiculous. For me the numbers tell a completely different story. In BC's third season he went 3-13. So the 7-9 second season, to me, is an anomaly. The Big 10 had 11 teams during his 7-9 season so it was unbalanced. Who did he beat that year? Probably not the best teams in the league. And no, you can't overlook BC's last season of 4-12 if you want give an accurate portrayal of his win-loss percentage. The bottom line is BC went 70-150 for his Big 10 record or averaged 5.7 wins per year with a 18 game Big 10 schedule. Credit John Shurna's career because without him that average would be much lower.

College basketball is about recruiting talent and developing talent. In light of recruiting one of the most talented NU class ever in his six months (which is hard to do when schools have been recruiting incoming recruits for year) of Law (top 70 recruit), McIntosh (high 3-star and two-time Indiana High School state champion), Lindsey, Skelly and Vasser, a second class of highly rated recruits in Falzon (top 100), Ash (top 150), Pardon and the Va. Tech transfer and the development of Olah, Demps and Taphorn, Collins is setting the program up for success.

So I believe strongly that Collins will do much better in his this season than BC's 3-13 Big 10 record in his third year. Nice try twisting the numbers to try to support a faulty premise, but it was a failure.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Originally posted by Walker Fan:
This post is ridiculous. For me the numbers tell a completely different story. In BC's third season he went 3-13. So the 7-9 second season, to me, is an anomaly. The Big 10 had 11 teams during his 7-9 season so it was unbalanced. ...

So I believe strongly that Collins will do much better in his this season than BC's 3-13 Big 10 record in his third year. Nice try twisting the numbers to try to support a faulty premise, but it was a failure.

So, you didn't get that I compared each coach's SECOND-YEAR B1G improvement (relative to the level he found) versus the other coaches. My analysis was not about speculating on the future. Yes, next season Collins may reach the S16 of the NCAA-T, and the F4 the following year, and win the whole thing a season later...then again, he may not...or he may do much better..or much worse...that is just speculation...what we know for certain is that he took over a program that was winning 7-8 regular-season B1G games per season plus an NIT berth, consistently, and so far has managed two 6-win B1G seasons with zero NIT bid...that is NOT speculation...it is actual performance...Of course it may improve in the future...it may also get worse...or stay about the same...for now CC has done worse than his predecessors (considering the level of performance each found)....that is what we know for sure, as the numbers confirm.

 

[NUcats11]

Originally posted by FeliSilvestris:
So, you didn't get that I compared each coach's SECOND-YEAR B1G improvement

I think we all "get" exactly what you're doing

 

[NUCat320]

I just wish NU had won 1 conference game in 2014. We'd be on pace for 36 next season!

 

[Turk_rivals223269]

I think the thing you are missing is that, for you to maintain the thesis that he is "Behind schedule", you have to toss out all measurements and known things, and then base your conclusion on simply win's. Honestly, Feli, your comparison of Fitz was so much more accurate because you included everything. But to claim that Collins is behind schedule, that is just silly.

Why schedule? the 7th win? He scrapped half the team with departures and brought in 5 freshmen who all played. I don't think many of us thought that Collins would be able to win 6 BIG games this year with such a young team. Cripes, the only 3 seniors [Sobo, Kreisburg, Cobb] barely contributed, although Sobo played some good minutes, and Cobb hit a couple big shots.

 

[VirginiaWildcat]

Originally posted by NUCat320:
I just wish NU had won 1 conference game in 2014. We'd be on pace for 36 next season!

Haha, that's funny...

 

[Walker Fan]

If you are only judging year to year, then BC's third year Big 10 record is relevant to see if he sustained or maintained any success after a 7-9 second year Big 10 record. BC went 3-13 after a 7-9 anomaly season. That is not sustaining or improving the program. I guess you don't understand that. Oh well! As the subsequent posts have stated well, you have a biased slant and are not substantiating that bias well with any logical or accurate points.

 

[EvanstonCat]

The massive problem with your post here (aside from outright rejection of the facts) is that it ignores the cupboard.

In the case of Byrdsong, he benefitted from great recruiting by Bill Foster. Pat Baldwin, Cedric Neloms, Kevin Rankin, Kip Kirkpatrick and Todd Leslie were the core of that NIT team, which was year one (not two). All Foster recruits, and all but Neloms were seniors. There wasn't one Byrdsong player that contributed. After Baldwin and Rankin graduated, it all went downhill from there. Byrdsong's other teams finished dead last in the conference, and none won more than 7 games, or 2 in conference. Year 2? Byrdsong went 5-25 and won 1 game in the B1G. So CCC is way ahead of Byrdsong in year 2 by all measures.

In the case of O'Neill, he was a much better recruiter, but he benefitted again from the great recruiting of Bill Foster. Due to injuries, Evan Eschmeyer got 6 years in Evanston and brought the team to the NIT on his back. Any coach could probably get to the NIT with a 1st team All-American. When he lost Eschmeyer, the team went 5-25 the following season and winless in the B1G. Oops. And then he left after that, after finishing just his 3rd season.

In the case of Carmody, he did benefit from having veteran players like Jitim Young and Tavaris Hardy (KON recruits), though I also do credit his actual coaching. CCC had to play 5 freshmen extensively this year. This is our senior class in year 2: a guy who was a shadow of his former self, injured all year, and a PG who started as a frosh for Carmody but was only a backup to CCC's recruited PG. Not including a transfer from Yale that was minimally serviceable. Not exactly the same as two seniors that garnered all-conference honors inherited from KON. Still, the 7th place finish that year, and 5th place in year 4 (though with a losing overall record) are worth noting, but if Collins doesn't get us to the NCAA's by year 4, I will be surprised. It took Carmody 9 years to get to the NIT. I'm not worried about Collins's trajectory nor do I think he is behind schedule in that context. I think there's a good chance we make it to the Dance next season.

So, the reality is that CCC inherited less than any of these coaches, but is way ahead of Byrdsong and KON, and he is most likely going to pass Carmody by year 3. Anyone can look at our returning roster plus the addition of JvZ and the new recruits and see that we are going to do some unprecedented damage next year with a good chance to get to the Dance.

This having been said, you're looking at the wrong schedules.

Here is the correct schedule:



1980–81 Mike Krzyzewski 17–13 6–8 T-5th NIT

1981–82 Mike Krzyzewski 10–17 4–10 T-6th —

1982–83 Mike Krzyzewski 11–17 3–11 7th —

1983–84 Mike Krzyzewski 24–10 7–7 T-3rd NCAA Round of 32 (Round of 48 bye)

1984–85 Mike Krzyzewski 23–8 8–6 T-4th NCAA Round of 32

1985–86 Mike Krzyzewski 37–3 12–2 1st NCAA Finalist

1986–87 Mike Krzyzewski 24–9 9–5 3rd NCAA Sweet Sixteen

1987–88 Mike Krzyzewski 28–7 9–5 3rd NCAA Final Four

1988–89 Mike Krzyzewski 28–8 9–5 T-2nd NCAA Final Four

1989–90 Mike Krzyzewski 29–9 9–5 T-2nd NCAA Finalist

1990–91 Mike Krzyzewski 32–7 11–3 1st National Champions

1991–92 Mike Krzyzewski 34–2 14–2 1st National Champions

1992–93 Mike Krzyzewski 24–8 10–6 T-3rd NCAA Round of 32

1993–94 Mike Krzyzewski 28–6 12–4 1st NCAA Finalist

1994–95 Mike Krzyzewski/ Pete Gaudet 13–18 2–14 9th —

1995–96 Mike Krzyzewski 18–13 8–8 T-4th NCAA Round of 64

1996–97 Mike Krzyzewski 24–9 12–4 1st NCAA Round of 32

1997–98 Mike Krzyzewski 32–4 15–1 1st NCAA Elite Eight

1998–99 Mike Krzyzewski 37–2 16–0 1st NCAA Finalist

1999–2000 Mike Krzyzewski 29–5 15–1 1st NCAA Sweet Sixteen

2000–01 Mike Krzyzewski 35–4 13–3 1st National Champions

2001–02 Mike Krzyzewski 31–4 13–3 2nd NCAA Sweet Sixteen

2002–03 Mike Krzyzewski 26–7 11–5 T-2nd NCAA Sweet Sixteen

2003–04 Mike Krzyzewski 31–6 13–3 1st NCAA Final Four

2004–05 Mike Krzyzewski 27–6 11–5 3rd NCAA Sweet Sixteen

2005–06 Mike Krzyzewski 32–4 14–2 1st NCAA Sweet Sixteen

2006–07 Mike Krzyzewski 22–11 8–8 T-6th NCAA Round of 64

2007–08 Mike Krzyzewski 28–6 13–3 2nd NCAA Round of 32

2008–09 Mike Krzyzewski 30–7 11–5 T-2nd NCAA Sweet Sixteen

2009–10 Mike Krzyzewski 35–5 13–3 T-1st National Champions

2010–11 Mike Krzyzewski 32–5 13–3 2nd NCAA Sweet Sixteen

2011–12 Mike Krzyzewski 27–7 13–3 2nd NCAA Round of 64 (Round of 68 bye)

2012–13 Mike Krzyzewski 30-6 14-4 2nd NCAA Elite Eight

2013–14 Mike Krzyzewski 26-9 13-5 3rd NCAA Round of 64 (Round of 68 bye)

Consider also that Coach K did not inherit an empty cupboard. His predecessor, Bill Foster's tenure at Duke:



1974–75 Bill Foster 13–13 2–10 T-6th —

1975–76 Bill Foster 13–14 3–9 7th —

1976–77 Bill Foster 14–13 2–10 T-6th —

1977–78 Bill Foster 27–7 8–4 2nd NCAA Finalist

1978–79 Bill Foster 22–8 9–3 T-1st NCAA Round of 32 (Round of 40 bye)

1979–80 Bill Foster 24–9 7–7 T-5th NCAA Elite Eight
Coach K had players that were the remnant's of Foster's success and he had 3 straight NCAA appearances (including two elite 8 and a Finals appearance) to work from. Yet, it wasn't until Year 4 that Coach K began his remarkable string of NCAA appearances (minus the year he was sick) that continues today.

This is the schedule that we are on. It is the schedule that Collins has modeled after his mentor at Duke. And by this schedule, CCC is already well ahead of Coach K. And I am confident that we will continue to be on track to see him meet or dare I say exceed the record that Coach K has enjoyed at Duke. Unbelievers, heed my words. Everything is according to plan. Dare to dream for much bigger things than the NCAA appearance that is likely to happen this coming year.

BTW, the Foster data above compel me to digress a bit on something I have bitched about before. Foster was supposed to be the guy. He was going to be the one to turn us around. And he would have, had the Walters class not transferred en masse. Rex Walters (Kansas, and drafted by NJ Nets), David Holmes (Rice), Kevin Nixon (BYU), and Evan Pedersen (SLU) all started for NCAA tourney teams. As seniors, they would have seen Pat Baldwin, Kevin Rankin and Cedric Neloms coming off the bench. That team would have made the Dance.

I do not think CCC will see the same tragedy befall his program. We are seeing momentum and glimpses - that I did not see back in 1989-1990 after which Walters and crew made their move. We will be going to the NCAA's, and my bet is that it will happen in Year 3 - ahead of schedule. So the OP needs to check his facts a bit and also get grounded in some context. Anyone who doesn't see the momentum of this program and see where we are relative to THE SCHEDULE needs to reexamine.
This post was edited on 3/15 1:12 PM by EvanstonCat

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Originally posted by Walker Fan:
If you are only judging year to year, then BC's third year Big 10 record is relevant to see if he sustained or maintained any success after a 7-9 second year Big 10 record. BC went 3-13 after a 7-9 anomaly season. That is not sustaining or improving the program.

So, what part of "comparing each coach's SECOND YEAR performance given the previous performance level" don't you understand?

BC did have a drop-off in his THIRD season (as did the others). Did you read that in my own post? I wrote myself. Unlike the others, BC did recover to post NU's first non-losing B1G record in decades, during his fourth season.

But again, since CC has only been the NU HC for TWO YEARS, I based my analysis on each coach's SECOND YEAR...yeah, very weird, right?

For all we know, CC may do a KO next season and go winless in the B1G....or he may win the league, or ... who the heck knows...we only know what he has done so far. What part of that don't you understand?

 

[NUcats11]

Originally posted by FeliSilvestris:
So, what part of "comparing each coach's SECOND YEAR performance given the previous performance level" don't you understand?

Are you serious? Everybody understands this. They just don't think it is relevant, telling, or useful in drawing any kind of long-term or relevant conclusions.

 

[MysticCat]

In the case of Carmody, he did benefit from having veteran players like Jitim Young and Tavaris Hardy (KON recruits)

_________________

Jitim was a true freshman who had never played a minute when BC arrived.

Not to mention that almost every other player on that team was non B10 material, including the center KON had offered for the following year who sat the bench for 5 years at William and Mary who he was touting as the next great big man.

 

[EvanstonCat]

Feli, what people don't understand is how you can take so called data, completely insert non-truths (go look up Byrdsong's 2nd year results (5-22, 1-17), and then imply something that only an idiot would consider has any insight.

The only guy you can debate has anything on CCC at this point in their tenures is Bill Carmody, and even that will very likely no longer be in dispute by next year. To even suggest the 2nd year performances of Byrdsong (just plain untrue) and KON (yes - he went to the NIT and had a better winning percentage) completely ignores the context that is Evan Eschmeyer) have CCC behind their "schedules" at this point in their tenures is just ridiculous.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Originally posted by EvanstonCat:

So, the reality is that CCC inherited less than any of these coaches, but is way ahead of Byrdsong and KON, and he is most likely going to pass Carmody by year 3. Anyone can look at our returning roster plus the addition of JvZ and the new recruits and see that we are going to do some unprecedented damage next year with a good chance to get to the Dance.

So, the ONLY NU coach of those mentioned that got a program that was CONSISTENTLY winning 7-8 B1G games per season, and CONSISTENTLY making the NIT, is the one that got the least talent? If you believe that, I have no interest in arguing with you. Believe what you want.

Foster may have done well recruiting, yet HE HIMSELF never managed to win more than 3 B1G games, and in fact won exactly 2 most seasons...yet Byrdsong managed to win five in his second season plus an NIT bid....that is what I am focusing now...ACTUAL w/l improvement by second year vs the previous performance level...it isn't real that hard to understand.

KO had one of the best (on paper recruiting classes in NU's history), but he also had a lot of problems to retain players, and some transferred after BC arrived...yet both KO and BC did significantly and measurably improve NU's B1G w/l record versus the level each found BY THEIR SECOND SEASON...which is the focus of my analysis.

CC has played the players he has played partially because of his own decisions...several players who apparently were encouraged to transfer landed in respectable programs...even a walk-on apparently got a D1 offer...those players and those who stayed may or may not have done better under BC than under CC (or their current coaches)...It would have been a different system with different coaches...we'll never know....still two of CC's most reliable weapons have been inherited players from the previous regime...whatever....all new coaches go through a comparable period...system change, players graduation, some transfers in/out, etc., etc. yet some managed to improve the NU B1G w/l record by their SECOND year....CC is NOT in that group...We don't yet know what will happen by his third and future years.

 

[4IUSox2]

Byrdsong was hardly the candidate AD, Bruce Courie, thought he could get when Foster was pushed out. He thought he could get Amaker. Anyway, whoever was taking over that team was walking into a pretty good situation based on talent/experience. Seniors, Rankin and Baldwin, had started from day one at NU. Kirkpatrick had played a lot too. Neolms and Dion Lee also played a ton on Foster's last team. I contend Foster would have done as well, or better than RB did with that team. Didn't they start undefeated in pre-conf, only to lose their first 8 or 9 in BT play? Wasn't that the year RB took his motivational "walk on the wild side? Then they started playing better, including the defeat of UM.

This post was edited on 3/15 1:27 PM by 4IUSox2

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Originally posted by EvanstonCat:

Feli, what people don't understand is how you can take so called data, completely insert non-truths (go look up Byrdsong's 2nd year results (5-22, 1-17).

Actually you are right that I mistook Byrdsong second with his first season...That simply makes even more remarkable what he accomplished, considering what BF himself had been able to accomplish in seven years...nevertheless I accept the correction.

 

[Styre]

"And by this schedule, CCC is already well ahead of Coach K. And I am confident that we will continue to be on track to see him meet or dare I say exceed the record that Coach K has enjoyed at Duke."

So just for the record, in the same post in which you remind Felis to stay "grounded in some context," you also predict that Chris Collins will, at Northwestern, exceed the performance of the winningest coach in the history of Division I basketball.

At least you're not setting yourself up for disappointment!

 

[EvanstonCat]

Originally posted by FeliSilvestris:

Originally posted by EvanstonCat:

So, the reality is that CCC inherited less than any of these coaches, but is way ahead of Byrdsong and KON, and he is most likely going to pass Carmody by year 3. Anyone can look at our returning roster plus the addition of JvZ and the new recruits and see that we are going to do some unprecedented damage next year with a good chance to get to the Dance.

So, the ONLY NU coach of those mentioned that got a program that was CONSISTENTLY winning 7-8 B1G games per season, and CONSISTENTLY making the NIT, is the one that got the least talent? If you believe that, I have no interest in arguing with you. Believe what you want.

Foster may have done well recruiting, yet HE HIMSELF never managed to win more than 3 B1G games, and in fact won exactly 2 most seasons...yet Byrdsong managed to win five in his second season plus an NIT bid....that is what I am focusing now...ACTUAL w/l improvement by second year vs the previous performance level...it isn't real that hard to understand.

KO had one of the best (on paper recruiting classes in NU's history), but he also had a lot of problems to retain players, and some transferred after BC arrived...yet both KO and BC did significantly and measurably improve NU's B1G w/l record versus the level each found BY THEIR SECOND SEASON...which is the focus of my analysis.

CC has played the players he has played partially because of his own decisions...several players who apparently were encouraged to transfer landed in respectable programs...even a walk-on apparently got a D1 offer...those players and those who stayed may or may not have done better under BC than under CC (or their current coaches)...It would have been a different system with different coaches...we'll never know....still two of CC's most reliable weapons have been inherited players from the previous regime...whatever....all new coaches go through a comparable period...system change, players graduation, some transfers in/out, etc., etc. yet some managed to improve the NU B1G w/l record by their SECOND year....CC is NOT in that group...We don't yet know what will happen by his third and future years.

Yes, of the 3, Bill Carmody inherited by far the least talent (and CCC inherited less as well, especially if you consider year 2 - with a hurt Cobb and Sobo). As I pointed out, Byrdsong inherited a team that was going to make the NIT's (at least) if Foster had stayed. Senior laden. Once those kids left, Byrdsong went to 5-22, 1-17. KON inherited a 1st Team All American (not to mention Geno Carlisle, who was probably Byrdsong's only quality recruit and which KON couldn't get to stay). You should have no interest in arguing with me, because the facts are facts and they are indisputable.

The only reason KON did so well in his 2nd year was because he had Evan Eschmeyer (whom Foster recruited). Why was NU not as good in his first year (and were able to "improve" in year 2)? Because Eschmeyer fricking sat out with an injury in year one. My mom would have gotten us to the NIT with a 6th year senior Evan Eschmeyer dominating triple teams. Take away Evan and add in your so called best on paper recruiting class, and you get exactly what KON did in his 3rd (and final) year: 5-25, 0-16. Are you sure you want to consider KON's tenure as a benchmark here? BTW, if Geno Carlisle had stayed (he said he had no idea Eschmeyer would be so dominant, but bitchslapping his gf and the trouble that came with it probably contributed as well), KON probably would have gotten us to the NCAA's.

BTW, the fact that you appear to be arguing that Ricky Byrdsong (RIP) is a better coach than Bill Foster is all that anyone needs to know.

And if you keep on talking about improvement from year 1 to year 2 (which is largely irrelevant, though I acknowledge that both KON and BC achieved on paper greater "improvement" than CCC did by this measure), then stop bringing up Ricky Byrdsong. Byrdsong's deterioration from year 1 to year 2 was only exceeded by KON's from year 2 to year 3. Neither of these guys nor their tenures are a yard stick by which you should be measuring anyone, unless you are trying to see how bad someone is. I'm attaching the following link for you, so you can get your facts straight about Byrdsong's "improvement" from year 1 to year 2: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northwestern_Wildcats_men%27s_basketball

Keep your head in the sand if you must and tell Mystic I said hello while you're there.

 

[EvanstonCat]

Originally posted by Styre:
"And by this schedule, CCC is already well ahead of Coach K. And I am confident that we will continue to be on track to see him meet or dare I say exceed the record that Coach K has enjoyed at Duke."

So just for the record, in the same post in which you remind Felis to stay "grounded in some context," you also predict that Chris Collins will, at Northwestern, exceed the performance of the winningest coach in the history of Division I basketball.

At least you're not setting yourself up for disappointment!

Now, that you are calling me out on it, I will say that I don't expect to exceed. What I meant is that I "hope" and I do not believe it out of the realm of possibility that this could happen.

I do fully expect that Collins will get this program to a similar level - perennial NCAA participant, perennially a contender for the B1G title as much as any other program in the league, and we will go to the Final Four. I would suggest with slightly lower confidence (but only because it is very hard to win it all) that I believe we can win a National Championship under his tenure as well.

Rationale? I think CCC is as bright as any young coach - he will have many years here. Based on what he's shown me the last couple years, both in terms of his flexible coaching, motivation of the players, and his recruiting, I believe he has and knows what it takes. He benefits from his experience with Coach K and with his Dad. and his 17 years with a championship program - along with his time with Team USA. He has an outstanding staff, headlined by Brian James who may be the best assistant (basketball mind wise) in the entire game. He is based in Chicago, which has more hoops talent than even Tobacco Road and can become a local recruiting base that will kick into gear once he gets us past the hump.

I really don't see any reason why he can't do as well as Coach K has at Duke. Yes, it requires one to stretch their imagination given the "context" of NU's morbid history, but everything that we need is there. Except the facilities, but I think that is overrated, and even that will come when we start winning a few.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Geno's transfer

Originally posted by EvanstonCat:

Originally posted by FeliSilvestris:

Originally posted by EvanstonCat:

So, the reality is that CCC inherited less than any of these coaches, but is way ahead of Byrdsong and KON, and he is most likely going to pass Carmody by year 3. Anyone can look at our returning roster plus the addition of JvZ and the new recruits and see that we are going to do some unprecedented damage next year with a good chance to get to the Dance.

So, the ONLY NU coach of those mentioned that got a program that was CONSISTENTLY winning 7-8 B1G games per season, and CONSISTENTLY making the NIT, is the one that got the least talent? If you believe that, I have no interest in arguing with you. Believe what you want.

Foster may have done well recruiting, yet HE HIMSELF never managed to win more than 3 B1G games, and in fact won exactly 2 most seasons...yet Byrdsong managed to win five in his second season plus an NIT bid....that is what I am focusing now...ACTUAL w/l improvement by second year vs the previous performance level...it isn't real that hard to understand.

Yes, of the 3, Bill Carmody inherited by far the least talent (and CCC inherited less as well, especially if you consider year 2 - with a hurt Cobb and Sobo). As I pointed out, Byrdsong inherited a team that was going to make the NIT's (at least) if Foster had stayed. Senior laden. Once those kids left, Byrdsong went to 5-22, 1-17. KON inherited a 1st Team All American (not to mention Geno Carlisle, who was probably Byrdsong's only quality recruit and which KON couldn't get to stay).

Geno transferred after the 1995-96 season...RB still coached one more season after that, and he in fact argued that Geno's transfer cost him his job.

 

[EvanstonCat]

Originally posted by FeliSilvestris:

Originally posted by EvanstonCat:


Feli, what people don't understand is how you can take so called data, completely insert non-truths (go look up Byrdsong's 2nd year results (5-22, 1-17).

Actually you are right that I mistook Byrdsong second with his first season...That simply makes even more remarkable what he accomplished, considering what BF himself had been able to accomplish in seven years...nevertheless I accept the correction.

No, it makes it very unremarkable. As another poster pointed out, Byrdsong was able to do with Foster's recruits what probably any coach would have been able to do.

The next and final three years of the Byrdsong experiment tell you everything you need to know about his ability as a head coach. What is truly remarkable is how quickly NU plummeted under Ricky Byrdsong after that senior class left.

The only reason KON got things back up in his 2nd year (if you call the NIT experience "up") was because of Foster's recruiting again - namely one EVAN ESCHMEYER. The only thing more remarkable than the plunge Byrdsong experienced in his 2nd year is the plunge KON presided over in his 3rd year after Foster's final and perhaps, greatest recruit graduated (I probably put him above Rex Walters as a college player, as the latter was not 1st team AA, though Walters was drafted earlier and had a stronger and longer NBA career).

 

[NUCat320]

Felis -
Obviously you don't believe what you're writing, because it's nonsense.

But the most obvious thing you're missing is,
In a world where no Northwestern coach has ever sniffed an NCAA tournament, none have a schedule worthy of comparison. They all failed. Their approaches and schedules and performance were failures. Therefore, there is no reason to draw any conclusions from comparing CCC to any of his predecessors. After all, his predecessors were failures.

 

[EvanstonCat]

Re: Geno's transfer

Originally posted by FeliSilvestris:

Originally posted by EvanstonCat:

Originally posted by FeliSilvestris:

Originally posted by EvanstonCat:

So, the reality is that CCC inherited less than any of these coaches, but is way ahead of Byrdsong and KON, and he is most likely going to pass Carmody by year 3. Anyone can look at our returning roster plus the addition of JvZ and the new recruits and see that we are going to do some unprecedented damage next year with a good chance to get to the Dance.

So, the ONLY NU coach of those mentioned that got a program that was CONSISTENTLY winning 7-8 B1G games per season, and CONSISTENTLY making the NIT, is the one that got the least talent? If you believe that, I have no interest in arguing with you. Believe what you want.

Foster may have done well recruiting, yet HE HIMSELF never managed to win more than 3 B1G games, and in fact won exactly 2 most seasons...yet Byrdsong managed to win five in his second season plus an NIT bid....that is what I am focusing now...ACTUAL w/l improvement by second year vs the previous performance level...it isn't real that hard to understand.

Yes, of the 3, Bill Carmody inherited by far the least talent (and CCC inherited less as well, especially if you consider year 2 - with a hurt Cobb and Sobo). As I pointed out, Byrdsong inherited a team that was going to make the NIT's (at least) if Foster had stayed. Senior laden. Once those kids left, Byrdsong went to 5-22, 1-17. KON inherited a 1st Team All American (not to mention Geno Carlisle, who was probably Byrdsong's only quality recruit and which KON couldn't get to stay).

Geno transferred after the 1995-96 season...RB still coached one more season after that, and he in fact argued that Geno's transfer cost him his job.

My turn to be corrected. I do remember Geno saying later that he did not know Eschmeyer was going to be that good, or he wouldn't have transferred. Too bad. Just too bad. Just another example of how close we could have been (and then with Coble hanging it up under Carmody). Hopefully those days are behind us now.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Originally posted by EvanstonCat:

Originally posted by FeliSilvestris:

Originally posted by EvanstonCat:


Feli, what people don't understand is how you can take so called data, completely insert non-truths (go look up Byrdsong's 2nd year results (5-22, 1-17).

Actually you are right that I mistook Byrdsong second with his first season...That simply makes even more remarkable what he accomplished, considering what BF himself had been able to accomplish in seven years...nevertheless I accept the correction.

No, it makes it very unremarkable. As another poster pointed out, Byrdsong was able to do with Foster's recruits what probably any coach would have been able to do.

The next and final three years of the Byrdsong experiment tell you everything you need to know about his ability as a head coach. What is truly remarkable is how quickly NU plummeted under Ricky Byrdsong after that senior class left.

The only reason KON got things back up in his 2nd year (if you call the NIT experience "up") was because of Foster's recruiting again - namely one EVAN ESCHMEYER.

You are obviously the master of the past and the future, and know exactly why everything happened, and what would have happened if something that did happen didn't happen, and what will happen in the future...if you abilities are not restricted to college basketball you must be making loads of money just telling companies (or bettors) what will happen next...congrats to you.

The rest of us can just observe that some new coaches do manage to achieve significant improvement in a short time over the previous performance level of the program, EVEN THOUGH the previous coach had many of the same players in the roster....It happened to RB (although he didn't sustain it)...it happened to KO (although he didn't sustain it) and it happened to BC (who did sustain it to some degree)....It has NOT happened under CC.

It's funny that BF's recruiting (who never won more than 3 B1G games in a given season, and usually won only 2) is actually responsible not only for the best of RB's seasons...but also for the best of KO season which came SIX YEARS after BF stopped being the NU HC...yet it has nothing to do with the 3 bad seasons under RB before KO's tenure, and the not so good first season of KO...BF's recruiting becomes decisive at certain very specific points in time...(when it suits your argument)...and never under his own SEVEN seasons....very funny.

 

[Turk_rivals223269]

I think his point is that you are right and that cc is in the same boat, ie, a failure.
certainly 6 wins isnt anything to right home about but at least collins hasnt ever won less than 6.

 

[Styre]

Well, it would be a good start down that road to bend (or just break) the admissions standards for basketball players like Duke does. You cool with that?

 

[thewildcat2011]

Originally posted by Styre:
Well, it would be a good start down that road to bend (or just break) the admissions standards for basketball players like Duke does. You cool with that?

I used to care about this--now I'm just tired of being depressed over NU sports. It's not like anyone really cares or give us credit for it. Had some buddies from Illinois State rippin' on me yesterday because we'd never been to the tournament. Illinois 'effin State.

Let's just start winning for once.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Originally posted by Turk:
I think his point is that you are right and that cc is in the same boat, ie, a failure.
certainly 6 wins isnt anything to right home about but at least collins hasnt ever won less than 6.

True, but considering the program was consistently winning 7-8 B1G games per season by the time CC took over (plus earning an NIT berth), his never falling below the 6-B1G-win mark doesn't mean that much any longer...the representative performance figures under BC by the time CC took over were 7.5 B1G wins plus an NIT bid, and SO FAR CC has fallen significantly below that benchmark, in both of his only two seasons...yes he may do better in the future...but he may also do worse...time will tell.

 

[docrugby1]

NU fired a brilliant coach in BC that could never assemble enough talent to be competitive in the B1G. Talent is the key to success but BC couldn't deliver that component.

CC is bringing in talent that I have not seen at NU and this is the key to success. CC will have to mature as a coach as the talent accumulates

If there were a coaching convention, I can assure you the lecture hall would be full if BC were speaking. If CC attains that stature and the talent continues to improve, NU does indeed have a bright future

 

[Turk_rivals223269]

we were much more competitive though

You raise the points. My question is if cat fans thought cc would get us to 7 BIGgames by now or get that 18th win. Id say that last year could have been better, and this year was looking terrible until we pulled things together some.

Id also give collins credit for 7 wins his first season with the win against iowa in the BTT. I think he had a more experienced team last year but still fairly slow...should have played zone last year.

My disappointment this year was mostly how awful we looked in ooc. That said, north iowa, north Florida, butler, all ended up in the big dance. And our big schedule was tough.

And we were very competitive in our first 7 big games other than wisconsin. We were either ahead by a bucket or behind by a bucket within two minutes of the other first 6 losses in the big.

This post was edited on 3/15 6:04 PM by Turk

 

[EvanstonCat]

Originally posted by FeliSilvestris:

Originally posted by Turk:
I think his point is that you are right and that cc is in the same boat, ie, a failure.
certainly 6 wins isnt anything to right home about but at least collins hasnt ever won less than 6.

True, but considering the program was consistently winning 7-8 B1G games per season by the time CC took over (plus earning an NIT berth), his never falling below the 6-B1G-win mark doesn't mean that much any longer...the representative performance figures under BC by the time CC took over were 7.5 B1G wins plus an NIT bid, and SO FAR CC has fallen significantly below that benchmark, in both of his only two seasons...yes he may do better in the future...but he may also do worse...time will tell.

BC only achieved that benchmark by year 9, and seemed to plateau. He only won 4 games in his last year so I don't know I would call that consistent, and CC has that beat by 50% already and has improved on what was given to him. Compared to Coach K taking over from Foster, I would say there is nothing to be worried about right now.

BTW, to answer your other post - YES, I am attributing KON's single successful year to Foster's recruitment of Eschmeyer. Had Eschmeyer not been on that team, the program would have been as much of a disaster as year 3 was in KON's tenure. Would you argue differently?

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Originally posted by EvanstonCat:

Originally posted by FeliSilvestris:

Originally posted by Turk:
I think his point is that you are right and that cc is in the same boat, ie, a failure.
certainly 6 wins isnt anything to right home about but at least collins hasnt ever won less than 6.

True, but considering the program was consistently winning 7-8 B1G games per season by the time CC took over (plus earning an NIT berth), his never falling below the 6-B1G-win mark doesn't mean that much any longer...the representative performance figures under BC by the time CC took over were 7.5 B1G wins plus an NIT bid, and SO FAR CC has fallen significantly below that benchmark, in both of his only two seasons...yes he may do better in the future...but he may also do worse...time will tell.

BC only achieved that benchmark by year 9, and seemed to plateau. He only won 4 games in his last year so I don't know I would call that consistent, and CC has that beat by 50% already and has improved on what was given to him. Compared to Coach K taking over from Foster, I would say there is nothing to be worried about right now.

BTW, to answer your other post - YES, I am attributing KON's single successful year to Foster's recruitment of Eschmeyer. Had Eschmeyer not been on that team, the program would have been as much of a disaster as year 3 was in KON's tenure. Would you argue differently?

Start thinking before writing...Eschmeyer was also in the program (as an active player) during the final two seasons of RB when.the program won 4 B1G games COMBINED...so, you only need a modicum of common sense to figure out that Eschmeyer alone cannot possibly explain the 6-B1G-win season...of course he was a major contributor...but so was in the previous seasons in which the program won 3 or fewer B1G games. How hard is that to understand?

If you SERIOUSLY believe that the final season under BC (where most players expected to be major contributors went down to injury or some other reason, several even before the B1G season started) is representative of the program level you are worthless of any attention....Honest people who know what they are taking about would actually find remarkable that it wasn't until Swop's loss late in the B1G season that that team stopped being competitive....suffice it to say that at some point they were 3-4 in the B1G ... clearly on target for another 8-B1G-win season (despite the major personnel losses).