Except the wackiness isn't limited to the Patriot League. UC Santa Barbara is better than Indiana? Winthrop and Duke are within 3 rankings of each other? NET rankings are struggling hard with the limited OOC scheduling.
Colgate #11 NET
- Thread starter Doctor Worm
- Start date
Except the wackiness isn't limited to the Patriot League. UC Santa Barbara is better than Indiana? Winthrop and Duke are within 3 rankings of each other? NET rankings are struggling hard with the limited OOC scheduling.
I see what you mean though I don’t think 1 loss Winthrop being close to Duke in the NET is unfair this year. That actually seems right.
Not really but the calculation is still listed on cbs sports. Colgate’s numbers are similar in RPI and NET which shows that it’s not really the efficiency or margin numbers driving the ranking. If it was, Colgate wouldn’t have such a great RPI.
Colgate has won 90% of their games. That alone is why their RPI is so high, because their schedule isn’t helping their RPI. NET also factors in efficiency and thus Colgate has an even better NET ranking than their RPI.
Patriot League’s metrics are also being propped up somewhat by Navy, who has a nice road OOC win at Georgetown and has only lost two games (to MD and Army).
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The RPI formula isn’t perfect but that is not accurate. Winthrop is 18-1 and their RPI is 58 which is reasonable (and nothing like Colgate’s numbers) even with a weak schedule.
Winthrop is playing every conference team twice, and have just 3 OOC games. Their signature wins are against Furman and UNC Greensboro, and they have a home loss to UNC-Asheville. Hard to think they should be considered a Quad 1 away game.
Yeah, I guess playing 1-16 (lone win came within the last week) Charleston Southern twice doesn’t hurt Winthrop at all. Think about what playing a .059 winning percentage team twice does to your metrics.
Of course it is. In both calculations. RPIs flaws are addressed as they should be in this year’s NET which has Winthrop as 68. It doesn’t matter how weak their schedule is. They are 18-1 and perfect on the road. 68 is about where they would be any year with that profile. It’s not enough for the bubble conversation and never would be. Colgate (at 11) is worlds different from NET 68.
With Withrop as a Quad 1 road win for UNC-Asheville... it makes the whole idea of "Q1 record" suspect, imo.
I mean, Furman lost to Winthrop on the road, and it counted toward their Q1 record and SOS... which in turn bumped Furman up in the NET rankings, too (77 in NET... vs 94 in kenpom and Sagarin). The lack of OOC inputs, and several teams playing conference mates multiple times, is throwing the NET ratings for a loop this year.
The system is a mess this year because a home win over a top 35-40 tourney lock team in general should not have less value than a road game against a team that isn’t in bubble contention with no fans in the stands in either case.
Having said this, 18-1 (while playing nobody including 8 road wins - again against nobody) wouldn’t translate that far off the 68 where it’s at right now in a normal year. Does a major conference team like Pitt (closely behind Winthrop at 80 but not, as you said a Q1 road win) really deserve to be ahead of a Pitt team with a 9-7 record and a 10 point home loss to 6 win St Francis PA? Granted Pitt has way better wins but Winthrop is perfect outside of its one bad game. Winthrop will be a 13-14ish seed. Would you be that surprised if they upset a 3-4 seed or gave them a good game? My point is 68 is not nearly as outrageous for a 18-1 team as 11 is for a 9-1 team (both having played nobody).
lol.... "not as egregious a miss as Colgate" isn't exactly a feather in the cap
Winthrop (like Colgate) has the benefit of the formula not being able to handle doubling (and tripling) up games against weak conference opponents in place of OOC games. It only ends up lifting all ships in the conference, because there's no OOC games to weigh against them. One team gets to float high up the rankings, and the others then benefit from SOS for playing them multiple times... which then floats that team even higher. You get a feedback loop because the math isn't there to balance it all out (outside inputs from OOC games against higher quality teams).
NET needs to be taken with a mine full of salt this season, and should be delivered to the committee with an asterisk on the cover page that could blot out the sun.
Colgate 0-0 (Patriot 14th Average NET 172.6) No OOC
(9-1)*9-1 NET 11* H 3-1 R 6-0
4 home games left
A comparison of the only 10 teams that have played only 1 OOC game.
5 teams 0-1, 5 teams 1-0
(Conference/Rank/Avg NET of conference) vs opponent
Monm. 0-1(MAAC 18th 211) vs 150 Hofstra(Colonial 17th 204) 88-96
(10-4)*10-5 NET 139* H (7-2) 7-1 R 3-3
St Fran(NY) 0-1(NEC 19th 215) vs 144 St. Peter's(MAAC 18th 211) 64-70
(6-7)*6-8 NET 246* H (3-5) 3-4 R 3-3
Wagner 0-1(NEC 19th 215) @ 41 Seton Hall(Big East 5th 77) 45-78
(7-4)*7-5 NET 171* H 3-2 R (4-3) 4-2
Maine 0-1(AmEast 21st 217) @ 167 BC(ACC 4th 70) 62-78
(2-6)*2-7 NET 303* H 1-1 R (1-6) 1-5
Sacred Heart 0-1(NEC 19th 215) @ 29 Rutgers(Big 10 1st 42.5) 63-86
(6-5)*6-6 NET 239* H 3-2 R (3-4) 3-3
CSFull 1-0(Big West 16th 198) vs Non D1 San Diego Christian 94-70
(4-6)*4-6 NET 217* H 3-3 R 1-3
IUPUI 1-0(Horizon 23rd 233) N vs 331 Tenn St(OVC 24th 235) 69-66
(6-8)*7-8 NET 259* H 3-5 R 3-3 N (1-0)
IPFW 1-0(Horizon 23rd 233) vs 320 SELA(Southland 29th 268) 67-63
(5-13)*6-13 NET 299* H (4-5) 3-5 R 2-8
Manhattan 1-0(MAAC 18th 211) W @ 341 DSU(MEAC 30th 276) 65-59
(5-9)*6-9 NET 272* H 2-5 R (3-4) 2-4
Temple 1-0(AAC 7th 106) W vs 212 NJIT(AEC 21st 217) 72-60
(3-9)*4-9 NET 164* H (3-4) 2-4 R 1-5
*Bonus*
Winthrop 3-0(Big South 26th 249)
N vs 91 UNCGreensboro(Southern 10th 150) 75-67
N vs 197 Arkansas -LR(Sun Belt 20th 217) 80-75
Vs 75 Furman (Southern 10th 150) 87-71
15-1*18-1 NET 68* H(8-1) 7-1 R 8-0 N (2-0)
We all know how this works but figured I'd do a little grunt work to compare and contrast what one OOC game makes with what your conference is, conference NET average is, what your conference record is. Under .500 conference record, under NET average, over .500, over NET average.
You can see Winthrop benefits from beating 3 teams that are doing well in their respective conference, to the conference's NET Average, and how it benefits their NET in one of the low-major conferences
(9-1)*9-1 NET 11* H 3-1 R 6-0
4 home games left
A comparison of the only 10 teams that have played only 1 OOC game.
5 teams 0-1, 5 teams 1-0
(Conference/Rank/Avg NET of conference) vs opponent
Monm. 0-1(MAAC 18th 211) vs 150 Hofstra(Colonial 17th 204) 88-96
(10-4)*10-5 NET 139* H (7-2) 7-1 R 3-3
St Fran(NY) 0-1(NEC 19th 215) vs 144 St. Peter's(MAAC 18th 211) 64-70
(6-7)*6-8 NET 246* H (3-5) 3-4 R 3-3
Wagner 0-1(NEC 19th 215) @ 41 Seton Hall(Big East 5th 77) 45-78
(7-4)*7-5 NET 171* H 3-2 R (4-3) 4-2
Maine 0-1(AmEast 21st 217) @ 167 BC(ACC 4th 70) 62-78
(2-6)*2-7 NET 303* H 1-1 R (1-6) 1-5
Sacred Heart 0-1(NEC 19th 215) @ 29 Rutgers(Big 10 1st 42.5) 63-86
(6-5)*6-6 NET 239* H 3-2 R (3-4) 3-3
CSFull 1-0(Big West 16th 198) vs Non D1 San Diego Christian 94-70
(4-6)*4-6 NET 217* H 3-3 R 1-3
IUPUI 1-0(Horizon 23rd 233) N vs 331 Tenn St(OVC 24th 235) 69-66
(6-8)*7-8 NET 259* H 3-5 R 3-3 N (1-0)
IPFW 1-0(Horizon 23rd 233) vs 320 SELA(Southland 29th 268) 67-63
(5-13)*6-13 NET 299* H (4-5) 3-5 R 2-8
Manhattan 1-0(MAAC 18th 211) W @ 341 DSU(MEAC 30th 276) 65-59
(5-9)*6-9 NET 272* H 2-5 R (3-4) 2-4
Temple 1-0(AAC 7th 106) W vs 212 NJIT(AEC 21st 217) 72-60
(3-9)*4-9 NET 164* H (3-4) 2-4 R 1-5
*Bonus*
Winthrop 3-0(Big South 26th 249)
N vs 91 UNCGreensboro(Southern 10th 150) 75-67
N vs 197 Arkansas -LR(Sun Belt 20th 217) 80-75
Vs 75 Furman (Southern 10th 150) 87-71
15-1*18-1 NET 68* H(8-1) 7-1 R 8-0 N (2-0)
We all know how this works but figured I'd do a little grunt work to compare and contrast what one OOC game makes with what your conference is, conference NET average is, what your conference record is. Under .500 conference record, under NET average, over .500, over NET average.
You can see Winthrop benefits from beating 3 teams that are doing well in their respective conference, to the conference's NET Average, and how it benefits their NET in one of the low-major conferences
I doubt Furman is that bad. They lost at Alabama by 3. Just saying. Winthrop also beat a projected 14 seed autobid team at a neutral venue (UNCG). They don’t have an at large profile but at 18-1, where exactly do you think their NET would be in a typical year?
Lost in all this metrics analysis is the fact that Colgate has a legit NBA prospect in guard Jordan Burns. He’s one of best small guards in the country and dropped 32 on No. 2 seed Tennessee in a first round NCAA game in 2019 (a 77-70 Tennessee win).
Would love to see Colgate take out a UVA in a first round NCAA game this year. Matchups like this are what make the tournament worth watching.
Would love to see Colgate take out a UVA in a first round NCAA game this year. Matchups like this are what make the tournament worth watching.
Good point. I’m sure they are a legit 14 seed. Wouldn’t want to face them at all in round 1. But they are nothing close to the 11th best team in the country.
Regarding Colgate: their computer ratings are all over the place. As I mentioned before, mine had them #22 as of last Sunday.
Looking here: https://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm
This guy (https://thepowerrank.com/college-basketball-rankings/) has them #4!
Looking here: https://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm
This guy (https://thepowerrank.com/college-basketball-rankings/) has them #4!
The real question is..does the committee leave out a 15-2 Colgate team that lost in the Patriot League final? I actually think they would...but it would feel wrong...especially since there will probably be one wtf? team that gets a bid.
Plus if they also deny Drake an at-large, the sportswriters will be defending the mid-majors who are gonna be screaming mad.
Plus if they also deny Drake an at-large, the sportswriters will be defending the mid-majors who are gonna be screaming mad.
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absolutely will be left out, its called common sense, the NET is a guide its not an end all be all. No one will cry over Colgate missing out.
I also think the St Louis numbers are grossly inflated
The A-10 could have the wtf? bid team in it. The top few teams have some interesting OOC wins.
ESPN has both Drake and Loyola in and VCU and Bonaventure in.
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Syacuse and UNC shot up alot with blowout wins.
If Rutgers beats Indiana by 30 we shoukd be in the top 30
Using margin of victory as your main focus is suched a flawed system
If Rutgers beats Indiana by 30 we shoukd be in the top 30
Using margin of victory as your main focus is suched a flawed system
What a terrible system. UNC hasn’t beaten a single team that’s likely to be in the field except Syracuse. How could they move up so much?
I agree it’s flawed for selecting a tournament field, but point differentials are much more predictive of future success than wins and losses.
Devil’s Advocate: if we are going to focus on something like road wins because they are supposedly predictive of success in the tournament, why would we throw out scoring margins which are much more predictive?
Yes, point differential was very predictive from our first game at MSU to our second game vs. MSU.
Colgate is an interesting case study in the metrics traditionally used. Their RPI is 6. Patriot League likely gets helped quite a bit by Navy beating Georgetown because of so few OOC games played.
Metrics aside, Colgate may have more future NBA players on their roster than most BigTen teams have.
Metrics aside, Colgate may have more future NBA players on their roster than most BigTen teams have.
lol.... not sure how that could possibly have been serious.