Coaching Rankings

phatcat_rivals223240

All-Conference
Nov 5, 2001
18,975
1,130
113
http://www.yardbarker.com/college_f...llege_football_head_coaches_for_2015/18943096

Never heard of this site but here's what it says about Fitz. Just trying to stir up the board :-D

37. Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern
Record at Northwestern: 60-53 (9 years)
Career Record: 60-53 (9 years)
Northwestern is coming off back-to-back losing seasons for the first time under Fitzgerald and is 4-12 in Big Ten play over the last two years. While it’s easy to only judge coaches by recent history, this is not an easy job and Fitzgerald has won 60 games since 2006. Additionally, the Wildcats went to five consecutive bowl games from 2008-12, including a 10-win campaign in '12, concluding with just the program’s second postseason victory. Considering what Fitzgerald has accomplished at one of the Big Ten’s toughest jobs, what could he do at a program with more resources?


The same site links to athlon, who predicts us to finish 5th in the West at 6-6, and ranks the team "58th". here: http://athlonsports.com/college-football/big-ten-football-2015-predictions

Apparently they think that we would be dead last without Fitz? You know, how we were for the decade before him.

This is one of those, 'hope I'm wrong but I fear I am not wrong' scenarios. I don't think he's improved since year three, and like really any coach (or perhaps any of us that worked somewhere for 9 years), I don't expect any significant change or improvement. Let's say a 10 win season would represent a '50% performance improvement'. Yes, I know it is twice as many wins, but I don't think a 10 win team is 2x as good as a 5 win team. Anyway - how many of you feel that you could improve your performance by 50%, for a sustained period, after you had been in a job for 9 years. Sure, you might have a one year burst on a project but you'd settle into your mean performance level

I think this is what we have - win an average of 2 non-con games and 4 B1G games for the forseeable future. We will p1$$ and moan when we have 3-5 wins and shout from the rooftops when we have 7-8 wins. Eventually the remaining luster will wear off Fitz but I doubt NU will ever do anything, and once Iowa finally fires Ferentz he will be the "dean of coaches' etc.

I love this team but have lowered my expectations.
 

Gocatsgo2003

All-Conference
Mar 30, 2006
47,224
3,623
78
For the lack of resources and other issues mentioned in the article(s), my over/under for determining a successful season is 6.5 regular season wins.

Six wins and a lower-tier bowl is obviously better than staying at home during the bowl season, but it's hard to really call that kind of season a success. Seven wins likely means we won at least three conference games, maybe four. Like it or not, that will always mean something at Northwestern. Any season with eight or more regular season wins is a clear success in my book.
 
Sep 15, 2006
12,698
996
0
I read these things for a laugh. What methodology do they use to determine a guy is 37th out of 100-some coaches? Why not 40th or 30th? Whatever. At least I suppose it's not as stupid as ranking high-school football teams that are hundreds of miles apart as USA Today does. All these lists are talking points, and that's about it.
 

SciCat_rivals

Sophomore
Mar 7, 2005
1,848
185
0
I read these things for a laugh. What methodology do they use to determine a guy is 37th out of 100-some coaches? Why not 40th or 30th? Whatever. At least I suppose it's not as stupid as ranking high-school football teams that are hundreds of miles apart as USA Today does. All these lists are talking points, and that's about it.


The author doesn't give a crap about methodology. All he cares about is clicks, links, and references on other sites. Looks like he is succeeding.
 
May 29, 2001
45,734
386
0
For the lack of resources and other issues mentioned in the article(s), my over/under for determining a successful season is 6.5 regular season wins.

Six wins and a lower-tier bowl is obviously better than staying at home during the bowl season, but it's hard to really call that kind of season a success. Seven wins likely means we won at least three conference games, maybe four. Like it or not, that will always mean something at Northwestern. Any season with eight or more regular season wins is a clear success in my book.
I think 6.5 win average is fair. 7 regular season wins in a season imo is a good year, given that Fitz has routinely scheduled at least one solid OOC game, sometimes more than one.
 

Deeringfish

All-Conference
Jun 23, 2008
21,385
1,489
63
I read these things for a laugh. What methodology do they use to determine a guy is 37th out of 100-some coaches? Why not 40th or 30th? Whatever. At least I suppose it's not as stupid as ranking high-school football teams that are hundreds of miles apart as USA Today does. All these lists are talking points, and that's about it.
Bottom line is Fitz is not close to number one or 100 somewhere between 30 and fifty. Sounds about right. I'm not much of a literalist, not everything that is true is quantitative.
 

NUCat320

Senior
Dec 4, 2005
19,469
495
0
http://www.yardbarker.com/college_f...llege_football_head_coaches_for_2015/18943096

Never heard of this site but here's what it says about Fitz. Just trying to stir up the board :-D

37. Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern
Record at Northwestern: 60-53 (9 years)
Career Record: 60-53 (9 years)
Northwestern is coming off back-to-back losing seasons for the first time under Fitzgerald and is 4-12 in Big Ten play over the last two years. While it’s easy to only judge coaches by recent history, this is not an easy job and Fitzgerald has won 60 games since 2006. Additionally, the Wildcats went to five consecutive bowl games from 2008-12, including a 10-win campaign in '12, concluding with just the program’s second postseason victory. Considering what Fitzgerald has accomplished at one of the Big Ten’s toughest jobs, what could he do at a program with more resources?


The same site links to athlon, who predicts us to finish 5th in the West at 6-6, and ranks the team "58th". here: http://athlonsports.com/college-football/big-ten-football-2015-predictions

Apparently they think that we would be dead last without Fitz? You know, how we were for the decade before him.

This is one of those, 'hope I'm wrong but I fear I am not wrong' scenarios. I don't think he's improved since year three, and like really any coach (or perhaps any of us that worked somewhere for 9 years), I don't expect any significant change or improvement. Let's say a 10 win season would represent a '50% performance improvement'. Yes, I know it is twice as many wins, but I don't think a 10 win team is 2x as good as a 5 win team. Anyway - how many of you feel that you could improve your performance by 50%, for a sustained period, after you had been in a job for 9 years. Sure, you might have a one year burst on a project but you'd settle into your mean performance level

I think this is what we have - win an average of 2 non-con games and 4 B1G games for the forseeable future. We will p1$$ and moan when we have 3-5 wins and shout from the rooftops when we have 7-8 wins. Eventually the remaining luster will wear off Fitz but I doubt NU will ever do anything, and once Iowa finally fires Ferentz he will be the "dean of coaches' etc.

I love this team but have lowered my expectations.

There was a point, maybe midway through the OSU game in 2013, or sometime in the season that Kafka started (or maybe even the game against Minnesota when he ran for all those yards as a backup) or on that game-winning/career-destroying TD pass v. Iowa from Persa, that I thought the peak for this program was competing for national championships.

I now think that the peak is closer to what was achieved in 2013 (I think, I get years confused) - a Gator Bowl title versus a mid-tier SEC school. At a lot of places, a season like that is a disappointment, but NU can out-graduate those places like nobody's business. (I'd probably trade five or ten points of graduation rate for a few more ten win seasons, especially if that dip in graduation rate came from early nfl entries.)
 

Sheffielder

Senior
Sep 1, 2004
9,939
741
113
I've said a million times all I "expect" from the program is six regular season wins with integrity. More would be nice and more is expected at least once every X years, but I'm fine with our commitment to integrity costing us a win or two every season in the long run; it's a worthy trade-off and I wish more college football fans felt the same way - in no way do I consider this defeatist.

Fewer than six wins, to me, is unacceptable given our resources as a Big Ten team. I wish Fitz and Phillips felt the same way, or acted more like it, but we'll see what lies ahead.
 

Deeringfish

All-Conference
Jun 23, 2008
21,385
1,489
63
I've said a million times all I "expect" from the program is six regular season wins with integrity. More would be nice and more is expected at least once every X years, but I'm fine with our commitment to integrity costing us a win or two every season in the long run; it's a worthy trade-off and I wish more college football fans felt the same way - in no way do I consider this defeatist.

Fewer than six wins, to me, is unacceptable given our resources as a Big Ten team. I wish Fitz and Phillips felt the same way, or acted more like it, but we'll see what lies ahead.
I feel the same when I'm sober and cupcake opponents don't bother me. OSU schedules many many cupcakes, why not NU?
 

phatcat_rivals223240

All-Conference
Nov 5, 2001
18,975
1,130
113
Fewer than six wins, to me, is unacceptable given our resources as a Big Ten team. I wish Fitz and Phillips felt the same way, or acted more like it, but we'll see what lies ahead.

My chief remaining concern(s) about this regime is that a) they are too stubborn/set in their ways to change, and therefore the defeats will continue and b) the administration won't make a change for many many years. I hope I am wrong.

I suppose it could be worse. Michigan took a perennial B1G contender and, with two hasty, ill-advised coaching hires, left the program in near-ruins (much to my delight). The Irish swung and missed several times after the departure of Granny Clampett. (again much to my delight)
 

Deeringfish

All-Conference
Jun 23, 2008
21,385
1,489
63
My chief remaining concern(s) about this regime is that a) they are too stubborn/set in their ways to change, and therefore the defeats will continue and b) the administration won't make a change for many many years. I hope I am wrong.

I suppose it could be worse. Michigan took a perennial B1G contender and, with two hasty, ill-advised coaching hires, left the program in near-ruins (much to my delight). The Irish swung and missed several times after the departure of Granny Clampett. (again much to my delight)
Coaching changes, by themselves are no guarantee of success.
 

Deeringfish

All-Conference
Jun 23, 2008
21,385
1,489
63
True enough, so why quantify them? Oh wait, the Interweb.
Well, not to turn this into a rant board topic, but we have to quantify things in order to evaluate and discuss and communicate perspectives, ideas and values. It is just that not all things quantify well.
 
Sep 15, 2006
12,698
996
0
If we have a coach that is between 30 and 50, then I'd like to see team performance in the 30-50 range. At the moment we are more like 65-85

I have no idea whether Fitz is 30th, 50th, 22nd, 75th or whatever among coaches. We may have been between 65-85 last year. At the moment, we are none of the above. We do not know how this year's team will perform.