Chris Livingston - Expectations

[Snow Leopard II]

I'm expecting him to shoot 50% from three and never miss a free throw. Anything less, I will be pointing a finger at Cal for bringing in another dud recruit.

 

[JonathanW_rivals]

As a UK comparison, I see Livingston as a poor man’s MKG. Not as talented of course, but style of play.

I see him eventually starting at the 3, since I think he is the most athletic player at his position. I think he will be very good defensively, once he gets acclimated to the college game. I am concerned about his shooting. I figure he probably averages low 30’s from 3. I think he will be a good rebounder from the 3 spot.

I think he could play some small ball 4, but with Toppin and Collins being pretty much locked into that spot, I doubt we see much of him there.

I think the idea of him playing the 2, is just him talking. We have Wallace, Fredrick, and Reeves at that spot. There’s really no reason for him to play that spot unless there is a major rash of injuries.

I agree with most of that. And yeah, no way he plays any 2 for us.

 

[STL_Cat]

Yeah I guess your right. I mean we've not had any good freshman during Cal's tenure lol.

Way to move the goalposts there, hoss. I never said anything about us not having any good freshman. I was responding to your specific comment about how Livingston would be a "much better shooter than many here are expecting." That specific comment we have heard about lots of guys, almost every year. My question was how many guys have we had that turned out to be much better shooters than we expected? Because every year someone is going to be.

 

[STL_Cat]

Agree with that mostly, but I feel like some expect Livingston to be a total non-shooter and to be left wide open on the perimeter, which I dont think to be the case.

My guess is he will shoot somewhere between 28%-30% from 3, will make somewhere between 20-25 3s total.

 

[bassworship]

Way to move the goalposts there, hoss. I never said anything about us not having any good freshman. I was responding to your specific comment about how Livingston would be a "much better shooter than many here are expecting." That specific comment we have heard about lots of guys, almost every year. My question was how many guys have we had that turned out to be much better shooters than we expected? Because every year someone is going to be.

I see him as a Keldon Johnson type player that wasn't known for shooting in highschool but cam i and shot 38% from 3 his 1 season. I'm not saying he will be that high but I do think he will shoot over 35% next season.

 

[jrpross_rivals]

I think Keldon Johnson is a good over/under when considering his impact with 13.5 ppg and 6 rpg. They’re both strong, physical wings about the same size with similar games. I think Livingston is a better defender but I doubt he’ll hit 38% from outside like Keldon.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

8 to 10 points per game and around 20 to 25 minutes a game.

Energy guy off the bench. Multiple position workhorse. He's one of the reasons I'm slightly optimistic about next season.

 

[BigCat241]

My guess is he will shoot somewhere between 28%-30% from 3, will make somewhere between 20-25 3s total.

I think you will be in for a pleasant suprise then, I dont know where some have got the narrative from that he is a poor shooter.

 

[jrpross_rivals]

I feel like I read this about a lot of our freshman every single year and it is almost never right. It's just wishful thinking. Who is the last guy that came in and was a "much better shooter than we were expecting!"?

Not many as freshmen. PJ and Quickley weren’t known as snipers coming in but it took till they were sophomores to hit 42-43% from outside. It does happen though. SGA wasn’t a great shooter in HS but hit 40%. Doron Lamb was known as a midrange specialist who needed to extend his range and became our best outside shooter ever.

Time will tell, but Livingston shot 33% in high school. I think Cal will make him focus on his shot selection, but the defenders will also be much better in college. I’d be happy if hit anywhere from 31-35%.

 

[STL_Cat]

Not many as freshmen. PJ and Quickley weren’t known as snipers coming in but it took till they were sophomores to hit 42-43% from outside. It does happen though. SGA wasn’t a great shooter in HS but hit 40%. Doron Lamb was known as a midrange specialist who needed to extend his range and became our best outside shooter ever.

Time will tell, but Livingston shot 33% in high school. I think Cal will make him focus on his shot selection, but the defenders will also be much better in college. I’d be happy if hit anywhere from 31-35%.

You know, I will give you and @Bassworship KJ and SGA. They did both shoot higher %s from 3 than I would have expected.

 

[Soupbean]

I personally think Keldon is the best recent memory UK comparison. Similar size, Oak Hill backgrounds, skilled enough but more attacking physical specimens than players that beat you with their skill level.

IMO I’d want him to lose a little bit of weight as his junior year he was insanely explosive and he seemed to fill out at Oak Hill. He also was a unanimous top 5 prospect his junior year.

This is pretty good. My nephew who coached him last year has used this comparison. Says he is an extremely smart individually but can play a little out of control due to his aggressiveness. The key for Chris will be learning to play with a little mor calm to let his high skill level come out but without losing his warrior mentality.

 

[Soupbean]

Ball handling is better than Poythress but not MKG. MKG had exceptional handles for a kid with his size. Poythress lack of handles kept him out of the NBA

True, but Chris may have more all around skills that Michael Kidd, just need some polish.

 

[HerrosHeroes]

8 to 10 points per game and around 20 to 25 minutes a game.

Energy guy off the bench. Multiple position workhorse. He's one of the reasons I'm slightly optimistic about next season.

I bet I can guess reason #2.

 

[HerrosHeroes]

I think you will be in for a pleasant suprise then, I dont know where some have got the narrative from that he is a poor shooter.

Because it fits the “Cal dont recruit shooters” narrative.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Because it fits the “Cal dont recruit shooters” narrative.

Or maybe it’s because he shot 33% from 3 in HS and players usually don’t increase their shooting going from HS to college and 33% is not that good.

 

[akaukswoosh]

Livingston certainly has a college-ready body.

 

[DudahUK]

Not many as freshmen. PJ and Quickley weren’t known as snipers coming in but it took till they were sophomores to hit 42-43% from outside. It does happen though. SGA wasn’t a great shooter in HS but hit 40%. Doron Lamb was known as a midrange specialist who needed to extend his range and became our best outside shooter ever.

Time will tell, but Livingston shot 33% in high school. I think Cal will make him focus on his shot selection, but the defenders will also be much better in college. I’d be happy if hit anywhere from 31-35%.

31 percent is atrocious.

 

[wcc31]

If he plays mostly at the 4, he’ll be strong enough to handle his opponent defensively and able to take defenders off the bounce while hitting the occasional 3.

If he’s played at SF with Toppin/Tschibwe, his strength driving the ball will be negated by a quicker defender and crowded lane. Defensively, he’ll have to guard quick guards.

You can’t play guys like Livingston at SF anymore unless your 4/5s are stretch Manek types.

 

[DudahUK]

If he plays mostly at the 4, he’ll be strong enough to handle his opponent defensively and able to take defenders off the bounce while hitting the occasional 3.

If he’s played at SF with Toppin/Tschibwe, his strength driving the ball will be negated by a quicker defender and crowded lane. Defensively, he’ll have to guard quick guards.

You can’t play guys like Livingston at SF anymore unless your 4/5s are stretch Manek types.

I’ve been praying that Cal plays him as a small ball 4 but I want Toppin to get minutes as well. Don’t really know the right answer at the moment.

 

[wcc31]

- Duke in ‘15 started becoming champion worthy when K played Justice Winslow at the 4.

- Whitley likely would have sucked either way but he should have been played at the 4 in college.

- Keldon Johnson routinely gets run at the 4 for San Antonio.

It’s about damn time Cal took advantage of mismatches at the 4 position instead of neutering guys.

 

[G-PIP]

I think you will be in for a pleasant suprise then, I dont know where some have got the narrative from that he is a poor shooter.

I don’t think Livingston is a bad shooter for a high school Big, but there is still a lot of development left to do there and we probably only get him for 1 year at UK. Livingston’s form on his 3 pt. shot seems good enough to me, but right now he needs a good bit of time to get it off. Now, I would rather he be accurate than quick, but it just suggests that right now he shouldn’t be the person primarily manning the SF position for UK given the makeup of the rest of the team.

 

[jrpross_rivals]

31 percent is atrocious.

It’s not atrocious. It’s below average, but not atrocious. The NCAA average last year was about 33.5%. If 31% is atrocious then by that logic 36% is phenomenal.

 

[DudahUK]

It’s not atrocious. It’s below average, but not atrocious. The NCAA average last year was about 33.5%. If 31% is atrocious then by that logic 36% is phenomenal.

36 is more phenomenal then 31 is adequate. That’s like what Wheeler shot. Would you say he was a good shooter?

 

[Gromcat_rivals]

I have no faith that any freshman we’re bringing in these days will be anywhere near the impact it will take to win a championship. A lot of these guys are fringe OAD types that are very raw offensively. They usually won’t produce what we need in one year. And they almost always miss the big free throws in big games.

The way to win with average recruiting and transfers is the Self model. Scout well and keep them on roster / add transfers. We hodgepodge transfers and fringe OAD players, rinse repeat. It’s not gonna work.

 

[Cawood86_rivals]

I have no faith that any freshman we’re bringing in these days will be anywhere near the impact it will take to win a championship. A lot of these guys are fringe OAD types that are very raw offensively. They usually won’t produce what we need in one year. And they almost always miss the big free throws in big games.

The way to win with average recruiting and transfers is the Self model. Scout well and keep them on roster. We hodgepodge transfers and fringe OAD players, rinse repeat. It’s not gonna work.

Agree....I would be more confident if UK had a high level PG....UK is not getting players like Wall, Fox, Knight, etc.

 

[BigCat241]

. Scout well and keep them on roster / add transfers.

Oscar and Shavir are both 2 of the top returning players in the country. Reeves is a quality transfer. And Wallace is definitely not a “fringe 1AD”.

 

[Gromcat_rivals]

Oscar and Shavir are both 2 of the top returning players in the country. Reeves is a quality transfer. And Wallace is definitely not a “fringe 1AD”.

We’ll see. Oscar definitely is, Wheeler is definitely not, and there’s no way to know if Wallace is a championship caliber freshman. Highly doubt he’ll ever shoot consistent enough for that.

 

[Bluegrassking]

I don't see anything broken looking, he looks like being an average outside shooter is easily in the range of outcomes. Maybe eventually better.

 

[jrpross_rivals]

36 is more phenomenal then 31 is adequate. That’s like what Wheeler shot. Would you say he was a good shooter?

No. I’d say he was below average.

 

[DudahUK]

No. I’d say he was below average.

About ****** is what I say. Not as much **** as DA though.

 

[Cawood86_rivals]

Oscar and Shavir are both 2 of the top returning players in the country. Reeves is a quality transfer. And Wallace is definitely not a “fringe 1AD”.

Savhir is not...please stop...if Cal could recruit like he used to...Savhir never comes to UK

 

[BigCat241]

Savhir is not...please stop...if Cal could recruit like he used to...Savhir never comes to UK

Why was he a Bob cousy award finalist?

 

[Cawood86_rivals]

Why was he a Bob cousy award finalist?

Finalist huh....did he win it?

He would be a great back up...brings energy, creates problems on defense, but he can't finish at the rim and struggles with shooting. Plus his size is a big problem if you can't do those 2 things.

 

[FitchandMurray29]

Why was he a Bob cousy award finalist?

It’s really easy to dog Wheeler due to his glaring weaknesses. But fact of the matter is he’s been the NCAA assist leader for major conference players each of the last two seasons. Not only that, he’s had at least 1 APG more than second each of those years. This past season’s UK team was 150th in tempo on Kenpom making the feat even more impressive.

ESPN’s stats go back 20 years, here is the list of players that had multiple(nevertheless back to back) seasons at the top of the major conference assist lead:
Sahvir Wheeler. That’s it.

By all accounts he seems to be a great kid. But in all honesty I believe we were one of the best teams in the country for two reasons: Oscar creating second and third opportunities and Sahvir creating easy opportunities. Do I wish he was taller, less careless with the ball, and a better perimeter shooter? Sure. But he’s an extremely valuable weapon in college basketball.

 

[BigCat241]

Finalist huh....did he win it?

He would be a great back up...brings energy, creates problems on defense, but he can't finish at the rim and struggles with shooting. Plus his size is a big problem if you can't do those 2 things.

Lmao, only you would not give someone credit for being a finalist for an award that shows you are top 5 at your position in the country.

 

[weatherbird]

I feel like I read this about a lot of our freshman every single year and it is almost never right. It's just wishful thinking. Who is the last guy that came in and was a "much better shooter than we were expecting!"?

You do realize that 6 of the top ten single season 3pt percentage leaders played for Cal right? You also realize that the top 3pt percentage leader was not a great 3pt shooter in high school, right?? Livingston shot a higher percentage from 3 before transferring to Oak Hill. He won't likely shoot 40%, but he will likely shoot well enough that teams will have to guard him. He made 2-4 and 2-5 in the all star games.

Or maybe it’s because he shot 33% from 3 in HS and players usually don’t increase their shooting going from HS to college and 33% is not that good.

Washington and Mintz shot 34 and 35% respectively last year. We deemed Grady a good shooter and he was a career like 35% shooter from 3 coming to UK. 33% is fine. We would like better, but that is adequate enough to shoot several a game.

Back to the topic at hand, Chris's ranking and how it relates to what we can expect. One thing we should take into account, chris was a top 5 player in the class prior to January for a very long time. A lot of the others mentioned were mostly always in that range. Additionally, Chris had one of the higher scoring averages in the all star games, and way more than Wallace. I really think a lot of people look at Chris's final ranking and have set expectations based on that. And for the record, he listed and played SF in high school. KJ may be a good comp production wise, but I would expect Chris's impact to be higher.

 

[bucsrule8872]

You do realize that 6 of the top ten single season 3pt percentage leaders played for Cal right? You also realize that the top 3pt percentage leader was not a great 3pt shooter in high school, right?? Livingston shot a higher percentage from 3 before transferring to Oak Hill. He won't likely shoot 40%, but he will likely shoot well enough that teams will have to guard him. He made 2-4 and 2-5 in the all star games.

Washington and Mintz shot 34 and 35% respectively last year. We deemed Grady a good shooter and he was a career like 35% shooter from 3 coming to UK. 33% is fine. We would like better, but that is adequate enough to shoot several a game.

Back to the topic at hand, Chris's ranking and how it relates to what we can expect. One thing we should take into account, chris was a top 5 player in the class prior to January for a very long time. A lot of the others mentioned were mostly always in that range. Additionally, Chris had one of the higher scoring averages in the all star games, and way more than Wallace. I really think a lot of people look at Chris's final ranking and have set expectations based on that. And for the record, he listed and played SF in high school. KJ may be a good comp production wise, but I would expect Chris's impact to be higher.

Washington and Mintz were shooting better than that before we started slumping. Grady was much better until he hurt his foot. That team lost a lot of games at the end of the season because our shooters fell on hard times due to injuries or fatigue or whatever. 33% is not good enough, if he is our best or second best shooter. To use last year’s first round fizz out team as a comparison makes you think 33% is good, then I don’t know what to tell you.

 

[26MichaelUK]

He looks like Poythress to me a little, especially with the high upright dribbling. I don't see him being the demon in transition that MKG was, not even close. There's probably only been one player better in transition for UK over the past 25 years or so, and that was John Wall. Every time we get a wing we try to make him MKG. Keldon Johnson was going to be like MKG, THE DRAGON was going to be similar to MKG. It's just not likely. MKG was a special, special freshman player. One of the best we have ever had.

MKG is literally the best transition player I've seen at UK. If he got that ball and started going he was gonna score or get fouled. It was unreal.

 

[26MichaelUK]

I feel like I read this about a lot of our freshman every single year and it is almost never right. It's just wishful thinking. Who is the last guy that came in and was a "much better shooter than we were expecting!"?

Exactly. That's why I don't talk about them in a basketball sense until they've shown what they got in real games.

 

[weatherbird]

Washington and Mintz were shooting better than that before we started slumping. Grady was much better until he hurt his foot. That team lost a lot of games at the end of the season because our shooters fell on hard times due to injuries or fatigue or whatever. 33% is not good enough, if he is our best or second best shooter. To use last year’s first round fizz out team as a comparison makes you think 33% is good, then I don’t know what to tell you.

Let's do a little math, shall we. At 33%, you score 1 pps, the same as shooting 50% from 2. You know who shoots 50% from 2?? Only the top 85 field goal percentage players in the NCAA. If your best shooter is shooting 33%, it is a problem. If your 3rd or 4th option to shoot a 3 is shooting 33%, you are fine.

Did you read my post?? Grady was a career 35% 3pt shooter when he transferred to UK, and most people called him a shooter. We can talk about slumps all day, but the truth is, every shooter has them. If you are going to subtract the slumps of the guys last year, then let's subtract the slumps from all guys going forward. I used last year's team because the conversation was centered on the offensive end. The issue after the injuries last year wasn't so much the offensive end, it was the defensive end. We lost in the first round, not because we couldn't score, but because we couldn't keep them from scoring.

The reason we looked like the best team in the country for a period of time was because we were putting the absolute clamps on people. We beat UT like a drum in Rupp because we forced them to turn the ball over a lot, which allowed us to get out in transition where we killed them. Getting out in transition meant we scored quickly, which led to a high number of possessions and we looked great. Injuries made us less effective on the defensive end, and we ceased looking like the best team in the nation. Which brings me to this point, know why we were able to beat LSU and Alabama without TyTy and Wheeler?? Mainly because we had to play Brooks and Toppin together (one of them at the 3), which made us a better defensive team with the size. We beat LSU shooting a combined 2-12 from 3, which included a banked 3 from Toppin. Fans would have crucified Cal, but he really probably should have stuck with that type of line-up going forward when you only had 4 perimeter players and 3 of the 4 were battling issues.