No. 21 Mississippi State at No. 14 Texas A&M
Line: Texas A&M -6.5
Over/Under: 61
Let’s take a closer look into the numbers and you’ll most likely be shocked by how seemingly identical these two teams have performed over the first four weeks of the season.
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Prediction: While the difference in scoring average would seem to justify the 6.5 points given to Texas A&M, the numbers unmistakably depict Mississippi State as an even match. While the victor will be difficult to predict with more than 50 percent confidence, the provided spread offers significant opportunity for profit. As for the result, the teams will evenly split the scoring before a late field goal decides the outcome in favor of the host … Texas A&M 30, Mississippi State 29.
No. 3 Ole Miss at No. 25 Florida
Line: Ole Miss -7.5
Over/Under: 51.5
We begin with a matchup of undefeated teams coming off of close back-to-back victories over SEC opponents. On paper, these teams actually present a much closer matchup than many would imagine. Ole Miss is averaging an impressive 54.8 points per game (PPG) behind the vertical prowess of QB Chad Kelly. Kelly leads the nation’s 12th-ranked passing offense averaging 15.84 yards per completion (YPC). The Rebels defense started strong facing overmatched opponents, but potential weaknesses were discovered after giving up 37 points to Alabama, and in allowing Vanderbilt to effectively move the ball toward accumulating 21 first downs.
The Florida offense has been unable to consistently reach the endzone, but the passing offense has begun to emerge after deciding on Will Grier as the quarterback to lead the team. The Gators have risen to the nation’s 47th-ranking in passing offense behind Grier’s 264 yards per game (YPG) average over the last two games. Florida’s defense has provided the offense with the invaluable time to develop and could present real problems to the Rebels desire to throw deep due to the Gators air-tight coverage in the secondary.
Prediction: In order for Florida to pull off an upset, they will need more consistent production from the pass rush, far better results from punter Johnny Townsend (37.8 net yard average), and a healthy Vernon Hargreaves III. Should any one of these factors fail to materialize, Ole Miss will leave the Swamp with its fifth victory. Since the Rebels pass rush and special teams have also been a weakness and Hargreaves is expected to be 100 percent, the Gators will undoubtedly beat the spread, but also send the Rebels home with their first defeat … Florida 28, Ole Miss 25.
Line: Texas A&M -6.5
Over/Under: 61
Let’s take a closer look into the numbers and you’ll most likely be shocked by how seemingly identical these two teams have performed over the first four weeks of the season.
| Bulldogs | Aggies | |
| Run defense rank | 80th | 81st |
| Pass defense rank | 26th | 29th |
| Passing YPG allowed | 170.3 | 187.8 |
| Passing YPC allowed | 10.01 | 10.29 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.9 | 5.1 |
| Passing offensive rank | 24th | 32nd |
| Rushing TDs scored | 7 | 7 |
| Points scored per game | 33.0 | 41.5 |
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Prediction: While the difference in scoring average would seem to justify the 6.5 points given to Texas A&M, the numbers unmistakably depict Mississippi State as an even match. While the victor will be difficult to predict with more than 50 percent confidence, the provided spread offers significant opportunity for profit. As for the result, the teams will evenly split the scoring before a late field goal decides the outcome in favor of the host … Texas A&M 30, Mississippi State 29.
No. 3 Ole Miss at No. 25 Florida
Line: Ole Miss -7.5
Over/Under: 51.5
We begin with a matchup of undefeated teams coming off of close back-to-back victories over SEC opponents. On paper, these teams actually present a much closer matchup than many would imagine. Ole Miss is averaging an impressive 54.8 points per game (PPG) behind the vertical prowess of QB Chad Kelly. Kelly leads the nation’s 12th-ranked passing offense averaging 15.84 yards per completion (YPC). The Rebels defense started strong facing overmatched opponents, but potential weaknesses were discovered after giving up 37 points to Alabama, and in allowing Vanderbilt to effectively move the ball toward accumulating 21 first downs.
The Florida offense has been unable to consistently reach the endzone, but the passing offense has begun to emerge after deciding on Will Grier as the quarterback to lead the team. The Gators have risen to the nation’s 47th-ranking in passing offense behind Grier’s 264 yards per game (YPG) average over the last two games. Florida’s defense has provided the offense with the invaluable time to develop and could present real problems to the Rebels desire to throw deep due to the Gators air-tight coverage in the secondary.
Prediction: In order for Florida to pull off an upset, they will need more consistent production from the pass rush, far better results from punter Johnny Townsend (37.8 net yard average), and a healthy Vernon Hargreaves III. Should any one of these factors fail to materialize, Ole Miss will leave the Swamp with its fifth victory. Since the Rebels pass rush and special teams have also been a weakness and Hargreaves is expected to be 100 percent, the Gators will undoubtedly beat the spread, but also send the Rebels home with their first defeat … Florida 28, Ole Miss 25.
