Chances the men can avoid playing on wednesday in SECT....

[thekimmer]

Looks like its between us and UT for the 11 seed although AU mathematically can still finish 11. If UT and MSU both end tied they take 11 seed because of head to head tie breaker.

UT has vandy on the road and UM at home. They have lost 4 out of last 5 all losses by double digits.

MSU has UM on the road and AU at home. Have won 3 of last 5 and of the two losses include a two point loss to a top 25 team on the road and none by double digits.

I like our chances. Nobody on the bubble wants to play us right now and that is a refreshing feeling.

 

[msstate7]

When is punter expected to return?

 

[DawgatAuburn]

We could be better than 11th. Georgia, Ole Miss, and the loser of the Alabama/Arkansas game have a decent shot at finishing 8-10 as well. Too many tiebreaker possibilities to think about now. But if we win out and Ole Miss loses out and we are the only two 8-10 teams, we would certainly have that tiebreaker with the sweep.

 

[thekimmer]

This is true but....

We could be better than 11th. Georgia, Ole Miss, and the loser of the Alabama/Arkansas game have a decent shot at finishing 8-10 as well. Too many tiebreaker possibilities to think about now. But if we win out and Ole Miss loses out and we are the only two 8-10 teams, we would certainly have that tiebreaker with the sweep.

The best we can do is to play on Thursday no matter what. I just want to avoid the wednesday game if we are going to have any kind of chance to make a run in the tourney & make NIT. Of course that is probably a long shot at best. A quick look at the last few years and nobody has made the NIT without a winning record. The worst record for any at large team in recent years was Iowa at 17-16. We would need to win the next two and then win two in the SECT to equal that. That still might not be good enough. But, looking at that narrative, might have a better shot to get two in the tourney is if we were able to win the next two and still finish 12th if that is even possible.

 

[Philly Dawg]

I don't know if the rules have changed since the NCAA took over the NIT, but having a winning record used to be a requiement for an at large berth.

 

[engie]

17-16 doesn't get us in IMO. Need to hope for a CBI berth. Prettymuch as likely to make NCAAs than the NIT with the amount of wins left that are required...

 

[msstate7]

17-16 doesn't get us in IMO. Need to hope for a CBI berth. Prettymuch as likely to make NCAAs than the NIT with the amount of wins left that are required...

If CBI is the realistic goal, we should hope to stay in that first game of the sec tourney. Assuming we win our last 2, that first game vs auburn would be a winnable game to help our record

 

[johnson86-1]

The best we can do is to play on Thursday no matter what. I just want to avoid the wednesday game if we are going to have any kind of chance to make a run in the tourney & make NIT. Of course that is probably a long shot at best. A quick look at the last few years and nobody has made the NIT without a winning record. The worst record for any at large team in recent years was Iowa at 17-16. We would need to win the next two and then win two in the SECT to equal that. That still might not be good enough. But, looking at that narrative, might have a better shot to get two in the tourney is if we were able to win the next two and still finish 12th if that is even possible.

Has the NIT changed its selection criteria in the last five or six years? Seems like the NIT used to be very attuned to attendance and name recognition. I would have thought a team like State that finished much better than it started, and has decent name recognition, and has a fan base that would actually be exited to go to the NIT would have a decent shot of getting selected despite a bad RPI.

 

[Bulldogg31]

I agree. Playing on Wednesday gives a great shot at an extra win.

Yes, we'd need to win five in a row to get to the NCAAT, but that's only a little harder than four in a row.

I'd like to have that extra win on the record and then try to make it to the weekend.

 

[FlotownDawg]

It's a lot less about name recognition than in the past

Since the NCAA took it over, the NIT has actually started picking deserving teams and not just teams that would have good attendance. There is an NIT selection committee that uses the same metrics that the NCAA Tourney selection committee uses. Also, teams that won their regular season conference championship but didn't make the NCAA Tourney earn automatic bids to the NIT. So usually around five or so teams are selected that way, making the at large field smaller. I think the only way we make the NIT is if we run the table before losing in the SEC Tourney championship game. That would give us a 18-16 overall record, and have us finishing the season on a big time hot streak. The more realistic scenario is winning our last two regular season games, and then win one game in the SEC Tourney, finish with a 16-16 record, and get selected for the CBI, which would select us if we were willing to play in it, because most teams in that tournament are mid-majors and they would like a major conference team in their tournament.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

They changed in 2006. Now they guarantee a slot to regular season conference champions who don't make the NCAAs because someone else won the conference tournament. You don't HAVE to have a winning record, but they aren't choosing teams that don't. There are usually ~11 auto qualifiers, leaving around 21 spots in the 32 team field for at large teams. Here are some facts/figures from the last four NIT fields.

Number of at large teams: 21, 22, 19 and 20
Number of Power Conference at large: 12, 13, 11, 8 (includes the Big East through 2013 so St. John's & Providence count for that year, but not the American since then which had UConn last year)

Average RPI of at large: 77, 73, 64, 67
Average RPI of power conference at large: 80, 78, 67, 74
Four year RPI average of all teams: 70.6
Four year RPI average of power conference teams: 75.9

Average wins of at large: 19.8, 19.7, 20.8, 20.9
Average wins of power conference at large: 19.4, 19.2, 19.6, 19.9
Four year wins average of all teams: 20.3
Four year wins average of power conference teams: 19.3

Weakest at large power conference teams by year:
2012 by RPI: Iowa (131)
2012 by wins: Iowa, Minnesota and Tennessee, all with 17

2013 by RPI: St. John's (94)
2013 by wins: St. John's with 16, Providence and Baylor with 17

2014 by RPI: West Virginia (90)
2014 by wins: West Virginia with 17, five others had 19

2015 by RPI: Vandy (113) then Arizona State (102)
2015 by wins: Arizona State with 17, Alabama with 18


For reference we are 140 in the latest RPI with a 13-15 record. To even get in the conversation, we probably need to go 4-1 in the next five to get to 17 wins. No clue what that does to the RPI, but if you presume the loss is on Saturday of the SECT to someone like Kentucky or TAMU, that means we would win at Ole Miss, at home against Auburn, then on a neutral site against two middling SEC teams. Again, I have no idea how much that moves the needle at this point in the season.

 

[Dawgg]

So here's your 'nightmare' scenario:
kentucky beats florida
tennessee beats vanderbilt
lsu beats missouri
auburn beats tamu
ole miss beats state
arkansas beats alabama
south carolina beats georgia
tennessee beats ole miss
vanderbilt beats tamu
lsu beats kentucky
auburn beats state
alabama beats georgia
south carolina beats arkansas
florida beats missouri


That puts us at #13.

The absolute best case scenario is:
kentucky beats florida
vanderbilt beats tennessee
missouri beats lsu
auburn beats tamu
state beats ole miss
arkansas beats alabama
south carolina beats georgia
tennessee beats ole miss
vanderbilt beats tamu
lsu beats kentucky
state beats auburn
georgia beats alabama
south carolina beats arkansas
missouri beats florida

That ties us with Florida, Alabama, and Ole Miss at #8, but we'll lose the tiebreaker to Florida because of our 'group' head to head record, so we'll be the 9 seed.
Florida (3-1) W:State, Ole Miss (Twice) L:Alabama .750
State (3-2) W:Ole Miss (Twice), Alabama L:Alabama, Florida .600
Alabama (2-2) W:Florida, State L:State, Ole Miss
Ole Miss (1-4) W:Alabama L:State (Twice), Florida (Twice)

We have an alternate path to #9 that doesn't depending on Missouri beating Florida:
kentucky beats florida
vanderbilt beats tennessee
missouri beats lsu
auburn beats tamu
state beats ole miss
arkansas beats alabama
south carolina beats georgia
tennessee beats ole miss
vanderbilt beats tamu
lsu beats kentucky
state beats auburn
georgia beats alabama
south carolina beats arkansas
florida beats missouri

That puts us in a 3-way tie for 9 with Alabama and Ole Miss. We win the tiebreaker because of our 'group' head to head:
State (3-1) W:Alabama, Ole Miss (Twice) L:Alabama .750
Alabama (1-2) W:State L:State, Ole Miss .333
Ole Miss (1-2) W:Alabama L:State (Twice) .333

 

[Dawgg]

With both Tennessee and Auburn losing last night, there's no mathematical way to be in the Wednesday game without a loss tonight or Saturday, either of which would cancel out any "good will" an extra Wednesday win would buy us.