CFP picture

[Go Budaw]

CFP picture seems to be taking shape earlier than usual.

If Georgia and Bama both run the table to Atlanta, I think they are both in regardless of the result. But they are definitely both in if Bama beats them and both finish 12-1.

OSU-Michigan-Michigan State trio winner is in if everyone runs the table elsewhere. Worst case scenario for the B1G is if they all go 1-1 against each other and Ohio State wins the tiebreaker to go to the B1G title game, leaving two one-loss teams in the division without a chance for the conference title while the two-loss team advances.

OU-Oklahoma State winner is in, unless it’s OSU and they drop another game elsewhere.

Cincinnati needs help in one (or more) of the following ways:
1) No more than a single undefeated or 1-loss team from the SEC. Basically they need UGA to run the table. It still may not be enough, don’t think you can legitimately take Cincy over even a 2-loss Bama.
2) The B1G disaster scenario above needs to take place.
3) Oklahoma to pick up a loss somewhere before or after playing Oklahoma State, and losing to Oklahoma State (blocking out the Big 12 from the CFP).

Oregon needs one of the above 3 things to happen, plus a Cincinnati loss, plus them running the table.

There is no realistic path for anyone outside of those 9 teams that I can see.

 

[ZombieKissinger]

Auburn isn’t a playoff team, but if they ran it out to beat Bama and UGA, they’d probably get in

 

[Wizard.sixpack]

If they beat Alabama…watch out for our foes up north. They have a decent chance of winning out and they would win the west

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

If they beat Alabama…watch out for our foes up north. They have a decent chance of winning out and they would win the west

They can beat Auburn & aTm but they could lose them as well. They have to have Bama lose again but that's hard to see the way their offense is playing

I still think Georgia wins out to the playoffs

 

[ZombieKissinger]

Since the Egg Bowl is a couple days before the Iron Bowl, I could certainly see Ole Miss’s SEC/national championship alive for it

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

After all the upheaval, a Georgia, Ohio State, Oklahoma & Alabama playoff would be pretty boring. Maybe Cincy can sneak in if UGA stomps Bama in ATL.

 

[She Mate Me]

I'm just glad Clemson is nowhere near the conversation. Now if Oklahoma and Ohio State could take an unexpected loss or two all will be mostly kinda right with the world.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

Since the Egg Bowl is a couple days before the Iron Bowl, I could certainly see Ole Miss’s SEC/national championship alive for it

They’re gonna need to beat Auburn & A&M first. I have my doubts they’ll beat them both.

 

[mstateglfr]

Surely OK State is out after losing to Iowa State.

If Cincy finishes undefeated, they absolutely should be in the playoffs.

This season so far is example #5,218 why there should be at least 6 teams and better yet 8 teams in the playoffs.

 

[Misfit]

Michigan has a huge game this weekend if they are going to be in the playoff conversation. The team in East Lansing is also 7-0.

 

[Go Budaw]

If they beat Alabama…watch out for our foes up north. They have a decent chance of winning out and they would win the west

They’d have to beat the same Auburn team that beat Bama in Jordan Hare, beat A&M at home, and win the Egg Bowl in Starkville. A tall order.

 

[djt159]

This is how priority should go

Undefeated Georgia
Undefeated Oklahoma
Undefeated Michigan
Undefeated Michigan State
Undefeated Wake Forest
1-Loss SEC Champ Alabama
1-Loss Georgia
1-Loss CC Kentucky
1-Loss CC Ole Miss
Undefeated Cincinnati
1-Loss CC Iowa
1-Loss CC Oregon
1-Loss CC Ohio State
1-Loss CC Michigan
1-Loss CC Michigan State
1-Loss CC Oklahoma
1-Loss CC Baylor
1-Loss CC Okie Lite
1-Loss Kentucky
1-Loss Ole Miss
Undefeated SMU
1-Loss Notre Dame
1-Loss CC Pitt
1-Loss CC WF
Undefeated SDSU
Undefeated UTSA

Yes some of these are very unrealistic. But that's the way it would shake out. That's the pecking order. Give me a UTSA-SMU final for praising the transfer portal

 

[Smoked Toag]

I want Georgia and Cincinnati to both win out, and hopefully be the 1-4 matchup, for a couple of reasons:

1: In a way, I think it is a reward for the #1 overall seed, you get a weaker #4 seed.
2: I want to put this G5 stuff to bed forever, and we would in that game. Georgia would crush them, and we'd never have to hear about G5 making the playoff again. I wanted to see LSU vs. Boise State in 2011 for this reason as well.

As the season goes on, I actually may prefer the playoff to stay at 4, rather than expanding. If it expands, then that Alabama loss to Texas A&M was meaningless. G5 could just have their own 4-team playoff. Or, the best G5 team, if undefeated, could continue being the reward for whoever gets the #1 overall seed.

 

[Captain Ron]

Surely OK State is out after losing to Iowa State.

If Cincy finishes undefeated, they absolutely should be in the playoffs.

This season so far is example #5,218 why there should be at least 6 teams and better yet 8 teams in the playoffs.

Agreed. Take the Jersey off of a 2 loss Bama team and no way they get in against Cincy. Assuming Cincy wins out, I hope they get in. The playoff needs a Cinderella.

 

[mstateglfr]

I want Georgia and Cincinnati to both win out, and hopefully be the 1-4 matchup, for a couple of reasons:

1: In a way, I think it is a reward for the #1 overall seed, you get a weaker #4 seed.
2: I want to put this G5 stuff to bed forever, and we would in that game. Georgia would crush them, and we'd never have to hear about G5 making the playoff again. I wanted to see LSU vs. Boise State in 2011 for this reason as well.

As the season goes on, I actually may prefer the playoff to stay at 4, rather than expanding. If it expands, then that Alabama loss to Texas A&M was meaningless. G5 could just have their own 4-team playoff. Or, the best G5 team, if undefeated, could continue being the reward for whoever gets the #1 overall seed.

Speaking of Boise State, why isn't their '07 win against Oklahoma proof that G5 teams should have a place in the playoff? That makes as much sense as using the result of a single game to prove G5 teams should no longer be considered.
BCS Buster games actually ended with a better record for the non-AQ teams.

Cincy may make the playoffs and lose by 25 to UGA, but that in no way means next season a G5 teams shouldn't qualify. One season has no bearing on another and one team is not the same as another. That isn't controversial, its just reality.

Bama, Michigan State, Washington, Ohio State, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Oregon have all been blown out in the playoffs. Should they also not be considered for future games?

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Oklahoma is out if they lose and OK State is toast now that they’ve lost. Big 12 strength of schedule isn’t very good. Oklahoma is just sleepwalking at this point and it’s going to catch up with them. I feel like they’re going to lose somewhere along the way.

 

[Smoked Toag]

Speaking of Boise State, why isn't their '07 win against Oklahoma proof that G5 teams should have a place in the playoff? That makes as much sense as using the result of a single game to prove G5 teams should no longer be considered.
BCS Buster games actually ended with a better record for the non-AQ teams.

Cincy may make the playoffs and lose by 25 to UGA, but that in no way means next season a G5 teams shouldn't qualify. One season has no bearing on another and one team is not the same as another. That isn't controversial, its just reality.

Bama, Michigan State, Washington, Ohio State, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Oregon have all been blown out in the playoffs. Should they also not be considered for future games?

There is a big difference in a BCS game that Oklahoma doesn't even want to be in (and conversely it is Boise's Super Bowl), vs. a playoff game where all the marbles are on the line. Surely you understand that.

Not only that, it's ONE game. At least in a 4 team playoff, Cincinnati would be forced to win 2 games (that mattered), which would be dang near impossible vs. the best 2 teams the P5 has to offer.

The biggest difference in the P5 and G5 is the schedule grind. Dave Bartoo has a numerical value of it or something, I can't remember what he calls it, some type of strength factor. It's the effect of playing top 50 recruiters week after week, and the toll it takes on you. The G5's route is MUCH easier.

I know you understand this. I regularly text with another guy who shares the same opinion/viewpoint as you. The funny thing is, I actually can understand his/your view that they need a 'path', but he absolutely will not give on the idea that the P5 plays a harder schedule week in and week out thus MUCH more difficult to judge these teams apples to apples.

Cincinnati would likely be 8-4 or worse in the SEC. How exactly should that team make the playoff? But the problem is, we won't know until they play, and even then it won't give a clear picture, because they may get the breaks and Georgia may play bad. But at least all eyes will be on the prize (national championship), and Georgia will have no excuse for coming in flat.

And even in these mismatched games where the absolute best G5 teams play totally deflated P5 teams, the record is tilted in favor of the P5, because of talent obviously. I just went and looked back at the history of the BCS and NY6.