I don't see it. Yes, they lost some players, but they will have a 4 year starting QB, a very good HB, a weaker schedule, and a very good coach. Then the following year they will have Russo at QB. What may bring them down is when they lose their coach at the end of the upcoming season or the next. Nonetheless, if Ash is the real deal we will jump ahead of them even if they string 4 or 5 good/great seasons together.
IIRC they lose a ton of experience on D, including the heart-and-soul/Mr-Do-Everything Trevor Malkovich, correct? So a (possibly much) weaker D this year and what kind of losses on the O? I believe it's 2 OL starters down along with both starting WR's. Could be wrong but I think that's right. Granted QB play will be a strong suit. Also, way, way, WAY TO SOON to make any assumptions, whatsoever, about Russo. Sorry.
My guess is despite the easier schedule (I think Stony Brook replaces ND??) they don't have the type of season that they did in 2015. Regardless 1 school is 10th on the list, the other 12th, so the comment implying "evidence" and "more momentum, " over a single recruit from Florida playlist in April is, IMHO, null-and-void (but that's just me...).