CDC Numbers

[engie]

Your prediction of < 1% is not based on common sense at all.

How do you know this? No one actually knows how many people have already had it and cleared it.

 

[L4Dawg]

Many hospitals in my rural area don’t have the capacity to treat the hospitalization rate of this thing. There is already a shortage on supplies such as masks and things to protect health care workers.

My wife works in nursing home facilities and they got told yesterday to wear one mask all week.

States that didn’t expand Medicaid have seen many hospitals close those places if they aren’t struggling are going to

Mississippi has one of the higher per/capita ratios of ICU beds in the country. Believe it or not we are in a lot better shape there than many states are.

 

[Go Budaw]

How do you know this? No one actually knows how many people have already had it and cleared it.

Just like no one knows how many had it and died from it. You can’t assume only the denominator would change from suddenly knowing all the unreported cases. The data available is what we have. Just like with the flu.

 

[engie]

Just like no one knows how many had it and died from it. You can’t assume only the denominator would change from suddenly knowing all the unreported cases. The data available is what we have. Just like with the flu.

The flu numbers account for the unreported cases due to consistency of information and data over time. Very accurately. Hence how it can be predicted every year nearly perfectly. Once again, that's an entirely different deal. The flu data isn't "number of positive flu deaths / number of positive flu tests" which is the point that you seem to be missing. If it was, the kill rate of the flu would skyrocket. Exactly how H1N1 was initially believed to be infinitely more deadly than it actually ended up being -- numbers not all that different from the early numbers on coronavirus.

We've got a good idea how many have died from coronavirus in this country, while having no clue how many people have been infected and recovered without throwing a positive test. To equate the two things linearly and use the numbers you are using as the "real number" is just crazy. We certainly don't know the real number, but common sense dictates that it's multiples lower than the current equation of known positives vs fatalities.

Apples to oranges. We'll know eventually.

 

[johnson86-1]

You call them asshats, I call them politicians. Their literal entire livelihood depends on the next election. For you, you depend on being an actual productive member of society. For them, they depend on mooching off productive members of society. That is their livelihood. The next election. It is sad.

It's way more than politicians. Lots of media and unfortunately some people I know in real life that like to make their opinions known on facebook.

 

[My Bru]

Just like no one knows how many had it and died from it. You can’t assume only the denominator would change from suddenly knowing all the unreported cases. The data available is what we have. Just like with the flu.

Uhh, yeah we do know who died from it. That's very easy to track. A LOT more accurate than who actually has had it. So therefore we CAN in fact assume the denominator should go up. The only question is how much.

 

[Go Budaw]

Uhh, yeah we do know who died from it. That's very easy to track. A LOT more accurate than who actually has had it. So therefore we CAN in fact assume the denominator should go up. The only question is how much.

It’s only easy to track from the point in time where testing was widely available, which hasn’t been that long even for the infected. You gonna dig up / un-cremate every cadaver that passed away from a respiratory complication in January or February of this year before testing was available? No. So there is also a big unknown as to the number of deaths, like it or not. Cases and deaths would both go up...perhaps proportionally and perhaps not. We don’t know.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Georgia has 1400 cases. Atlanta ICU's are at capacity....

Same in New Orleans.

Same In NYC.

Florida is next based on a temperature tracking app...

Gosh Shelton, your Doomsday Prediction hasn’t happened....

 

[engie]

Your prediction of < 1% is not based on common sense at all.

Sooo, about this.... #drebin'd

 

[Bulldawg77]

I'd say a far cry from doomsday

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

 

[Go Budaw]

Sooo, about this.... #drebin'd

What? US is currently rocking a 6% case fatality ratio. Princess cruise ship study showed a 1% fatality ratio of all cases in a fully defined denominator setting. I’m not real sure where you are going with this.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

 

[SheltonChoked]

I'd say a far cry from doomsday

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

From your "proof it is not that bad"

[FONT=&quot]It is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods. [/FONT]

 

[SheltonChoked]

Gosh Shelton, your Doomsday Prediction hasn’t happened....

Signed,

83,082 dead Americans


I guess I was right. You are a selfish *******. You just have a death wish. Don't worry, with a heart condition and bad lungs, some ******* on here asymptomatic with covid will get you....

 

[SheltonChoked]

One death is too many. But I don't think we're even going to lose "tens of thousands" in the US from this. The mortality rate is going to continue to drop as testing improves and therapeutics are more available. By next year there will be a vaccine. And despite hysteria over the mutation of this, it was announced yesterday that this virus appears to be "stable," meaning it's not showing signs of mutation.

I don't deny it's a crisis and I don't deny that we need to be responsible to do our part in helping to flatten the curve. But it's nauseating to continue seeing the hysteria that's being driven by extrapolation of worst case scenario data.

A couple of deep breaths and a little bit of common sense would serve folks well right about now.

#drebin'd

This did not age well...

 

[engie]

El oh el.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

#drebin'd

This did not age well...

It’s a lot closer to reality than the experts were predicting but carry on.

 

[Bulldawg77]

From your "proof it is not that bad"

Yep. So that coroners can go back and "count" DC as covid when actually they had other issues that contributed to the cause of death

I know you want this to just go away we all do but it's clear that this whole thing has been agenda influenced. I mean the whole shut down was to minimize overwhelming hospitals. We accomplished that. Well other than MU. The shelter in place and shut down wasnt meant to get rid of the virus. I think you and others were /are under that presumption. Maybe I'm wrong. It was to slow the spread and not overwhelm hospitals. We did that. It's here and we are just gong to have to get on with our lives and go back to work and live our life's as normal as we can. I'm sure your not happy about that. Not everyone dies from it not everyone is going to get it. This whole thing has been an overreaction.
My numbers were linked from the CDC and again a lot of these deaths aren't just covid related.

 

[SheltonChoked]

It’s a lot closer to reality than the experts were predicting but carry on.

I wonder if there was any change in actions by the public that might have impacted the spread of a virus since March? Can you think of anything?

 

[Bulldawg77]

I wonder if there was any change in actions by the public that might have impacted the spread of a virus since March? Can you think of anything?

If you are naive enough to believe this then please explain how all of the sudden we have now had people test positive without any interaction with others and now we have rural areas with positive cases. And this is just in MS. Got news for ya. It's been here we are just now testing for it and on top of that had we just carried on I'm not sure "your numbers" would be much different. But go on living in fear in your basement. We will let you know when it's safe to come out

 

[Go Budaw]

El oh el.

OK. Are you saying the CFR actually isn’t 6%, which is quadruple what it was 2 months ago when this thread started that you decided to bump? What are you disputing?

For the death rate to be <1%, multiple things have to be true that have still not yet been proven true. For starters, the confirmed case rate has to be <=16% of actual cases. It’s obviously lower by some amount. We still don’t know how much, as antibody tests are currently about as accurate as the November 2000 Dade County vote count, and both sides are using them to paint whatever reality they want to paint. Another thing that has to be true is for the number of deaths to not be understated, which Fauci and other experts have all stated IS the case to some degree. Again, unknowns that likely won’t be filled in until multiple months or years down the road when death trends can be reviewed in more detail.

Just so you don’t get it twisted, I’ll freely say what nobody on this dubmass spectrum of idiocy and agendas seems to want to say....I have no 17ing clue how bad it’s going to be. I know for damn sure I’d love for all the “it’s not so bad” crowd to be right, but there’s no substance to state that they are or that the opposite side is either. Maybe it’s less than 1%, maybe it isn’t. Point is, nobody had the info when this thread started to make that assessment, and we still don’t have it. I’m not going to split hairs about that number anyway. 0.5% would still be awful with these infection numbers that are being thrown out there. As would 0.8%, 1.3%, etc. If the current CFR holds, you are looking at 148,000 dead Americans even if infection spread was stopped dead in its tracks right now....just from resolution of currently active cases. Don’t know about you, but that is significant to me.

 

[msstate7]

OK. Are you saying the CFR actually isn’t 6%, which is quadruple what it was 2 months ago when this thread started that you decided to bump? What are you disputing?

For the death rate to be <1%, multiple things have to be true that have still not yet been proven true. For starters, the confirmed case rate has to be <=16% of actual cases. It’s obviously lower by some amount. We still don’t know how much, as antibody tests are currently about as accurate as the November 2000 Dade County vote count, and both sides are using them to paint whatever reality they want to paint. Another thing that has to be true is for the number of deaths to not be understated, which Fauci and other experts have all stated IS the case to some degree. Again, unknowns that likely won’t be filled in until multiple months or years down the road when death trends can be reviewed in more detail.

Just so you don’t get it twisted, I’ll freely say what nobody on this dubmass spectrum of idiocy and agendas seems to want to say....I have no 17ing clue how bad it’s going to be. I know for damn sure I’d love for all the “it’s not so bad” crowd to be right, but there’s no substance to state that they are or that the opposite side is either. Maybe it’s less than 1%, maybe it isn’t. Point is, nobody had the info when this thread started to make that assessment, and we still don’t have it. I’m not going to split hairs about that number anyway. 0.5% would still be awful with these infection numbers that are being thrown out there. As would 0.8%, 1.3%, etc. If the current CFR holds, you are looking at 148,000 dead Americans even if infection spread was stopped dead in its tracks right now....just from resolution of currently active cases. Don’t know about you, but that is significant to me.

Covid19 is what 2x more contagious than the flu? The flu (something we have a vaccine for) infected between 39-56 million Americans between October and April. So in about half that time, you think the 1.4 million cases is close to accurate? For that to be true, seems either covid19 isn't as contagious as the flu, flu estimates are too high, or covid19 cases are too low.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

 

[SheltonChoked]

If you are naive enough to believe this then please explain how all of the sudden we have now had people test positive without any interaction with others and now we have rural areas with positive cases. And this is just in MS. Got news for ya. It's been here we are just now testing for it and on top of that had we just carried on I'm not sure "your numbers" would be much different. But go on living in fear in your basement. We will let you know when it's safe to come out

are you dumb enough to think that the measures taken by the whole world did not reduce the spread?

How many of those in Rural areas went on spring break? or ignored the rules given?

 

[Go Budaw]

Covid19 is what 2x more contagious than the flu? The flu (something we have a vaccine for) infected between 39-56 million Americans between October and April. So in about half that time, you think the 1.4 million cases is close to accurate? For that to be true, seems either covid19 isn't as contagious as the flu, flu estimates are too high, or covid19 cases are too low.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

No, I’m fully aware 1.4 million isn’t the full number of cases. Already said that confirmed cases are definitely way lower than actual cases. And the “2x as contagious as the flu” is yet another theory / statement that hasn’t been fully vetted, and it’s gonna be pretty difficult to quantify that because of all the external forces we have applied to curb the spread that we don’t ever implement for the flu. Could still be far more contagious than that. If there have been 9 million actual cases, you are hovering around 1% actual mortality rate. But is that where we are? We don’t know. Antibody tests are too flawed at present time to make a definitive judgment.

 

[engie]

So "we can't possibly know" -- by the method in which we actually do know from various snapshots. Because that paints a very different picture than the insane one you are working with here. Got it.

 

[hatfieldms]

Georgia has 1400 cases. Atlanta ICU's are at capacity....

Same in New Orleans.

Same In NYC.

Florida is next based on a temperature tracking app...

IF NYC is at capacity why did they send the Navy hospital ship away and start offering ventilators to other governors?