The computers say Kentucky is a top four team.
https://warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/elochess
The ELO ranking methodology, unlike all the other computer algorithms, is recursive. Meaning it doesn't weight all games equally, Games that are more recent are given greater weight. This is the system that chess players have been using for decades because it makes the most sense.
The reason the NET, BPI, Colley method, et al are flat out wrong is because they assume each game is independent of other games. They treat each game like a dice roll. Recursive algorithms model the dependence between one game and the next. That's why Duke doesn't move in the NET ranking despite losing a game. That game is the same weight as all the others.
The ELO ranking methodology allows us to determine who is the "best team right now" versus "the most deserving based on performance over the whole season".
Relax Cat fans; we're in for another deep run.
https://warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/elochess
The ELO ranking methodology, unlike all the other computer algorithms, is recursive. Meaning it doesn't weight all games equally, Games that are more recent are given greater weight. This is the system that chess players have been using for decades because it makes the most sense.
The reason the NET, BPI, Colley method, et al are flat out wrong is because they assume each game is independent of other games. They treat each game like a dice roll. Recursive algorithms model the dependence between one game and the next. That's why Duke doesn't move in the NET ranking despite losing a game. That game is the same weight as all the others.
The ELO ranking methodology allows us to determine who is the "best team right now" versus "the most deserving based on performance over the whole season".
Relax Cat fans; we're in for another deep run.