Dell Curry shot 40% in the pros and Steph is a 43% career shooter...are we on pace for a 50% three point shooter at Rutgers???
Carino on Derek Simpson
- Thread starter gregkoko
- Start date
The word you may be looking for is precision. There is a lack of precision in the predictive models.
Possibly closer to what I was intending - but what is a prediction with poor precision called?
My thinking is more along the lines of theoretical probability vs. experimental probability. Theoretically, a coin flip yields heads 50% of the time, but experimentally if I flip the coin 8 times that doesn't mean I'm going to get 4 heads. Theoretically players with 4 stars and multiple major conference offers are better than 50% to succeed on a major conference team.... experimentally, we haven't seen that bear out here.
If we were able to sign 1000 players a year, our experimental probability would be closer to the theoretical probability. But we get closer to 3 per year. And our system is not nearly as simple as a coin flip or die roll - the theoretical probability of of success of "multiple-offer players willing to sign with Rutgers" may be different than the larger pool of "multiple-offer players overall", but we have no way to measure that.
Choppin, I generally agree with you in this thread that the stars/offers metric for INDIVIDUAL players won't always be an accurate predictor (while also agreeing with willis that I'd much rather take a chance with slew of 4-stars with offers).
But one thing you might be missing here is that not every "4-star" is created equal. There are some 4-stars who have only a few committable offers, and other 4-stars have 10+ or 20+ committable offers. I would submit that the more OFFERS a recruit has, the more predictive it is of his future college basketball success.
That said, you're still correct that none of this is perfectly predictive for any individual player, and I'm with you in not getting too excited, or down, about the recruits we sign until we have a sample of their on-court play (while still preferring that we sign more 4-stars than not).
Mechanics look solid, nice quick release. Love that it came off the dribble too.
Definitely will be on the lookout for more of his game film as the season continues.
Yet somehow the NCAA is littered with teams that beat the odds and are among the top programs year after year.
It must be difficult traversing the world every day with no day-by-day trust of the weather forecast--walking out there every day with your layered jacket, sunglasses, umbrella, suntan lotion and galoshes ready to take on whatever they world may foist upon you.
Absolutely. But how many guys each year have 20+ offers? Looking at every Rivals 5-star for this year, only 10 of them had as many as 20 offers (and 1 went to the G-League). 11 of them had fewer than 15 offers. I didn't look at how many of those were from major conferences.
And every major conference offer isn't equal, either. An offer from Vandy isn't the same as one from Kentucky, so that all becomes subjective too, based on perception of how strong of a program each offer is coming from, and how much credit someone gives for that offer over another (or how much confidence they have that it's committable, etc).
So, while it's nice to get external validation on a prospect, that not only does your own staff see something in them (their jobs are counting on that player performing) but so do other coaches, it's just one more directional indicator of potential, imo. If it makes someone feel better to have a security blanket until the balls get rolled out, that's great I guess.
When is Linden going to move on from their current coach? He just hasn't worked out as Collichio's successor. Program has really gone down in the last couple of years. Sad to see.
First, lol
Second, while this is funny I think it’s a little unfair to choppin.
The R^2 on a model that predicts team quality from recruiting rankings and nothing else is likely to be rather low, which I think is really all he is trying to convey.
They offer and then pay. That's how they stay on top
yep. It definitely it is for us. We don't provide houses, cars, jobs for relatives, etc.
We would have at least been in the Elite Eight a few times over the past 30 yrs
if we had
Through 4 games he's avg about 13 ppg a game. Good players from sj against that competition would avg 25ppg without breaking a sweat. If your not a man amongst boys against weak competition, how is Simpson a B10 player? I'm interested to see how performs against Camden
Thanks for the link. Watched a portion of the first half and Simpson looks like he could have easily scored in the mid to high 30s if a few more shots went down in the early part of game. All good shots taken and no hesitation. He looks like the primary ball handler bringing up and they ran most of the offensive sets for him. Has a smooth calmness to his game and plays under control. Looks like he could go full jock mode and scored 40 plus but shares the ball with team mates. He caught a dunk on a quick transition feed. Didn’t see him take his man to the hole too often. Will check out second half to see if that changed. Has a nice decisive stroke from the outside and I look forward to seeing his play against a high level HS team. First half play looks almost like he’s holding back a gear or two to his play and wonder if the level of opponent may be the reason.
Look forward to seeing more of this kid play.
GO RU
Points? Team could be up big in 3rd period and he comes out of the game. Can't go by stats all the time. Chris Remley who played for RU averaged 14 rebounds a game in hs. Went to RU and did not rebound. Was 7 inches taller than everyone in high school.
After a semi-slow start to the season, Derek has been pretty good the last few games, including this great performance against a top 20 team in NJ. In his last 5 games, hes averaging 24.4 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 6.2 APG, 2.8 SPG and 3 three pointers made a game. His shot in particular is seemingly starting to drop.
I watched the Camden game and he did a good job finding the open man alot. But Simpson showed no dog in him at all.. Wagner scored 17 pts in the 2nd qt, and not one time did Simpson even attempt to guard him. Not only that, he also never took the basketball and tried to keep his team in the game. He was completely content with just being on the floor and adding to his point total towards the end of the game. Competitive spirit was non existent. He'll be a nice player for us eventually, but probably not until his jr yr.
You're determining a college player, playing in a college system, based on not guarding a HS 5* player, in a HS game??
Simpson is probably a 3 year starter, minimum at RU......how many players at Wagners level are in the B1G, besides Jaden Ivy and Davis at Wisconsin?? LMAO
The game is here. I watched a bit and Lenape's defense was all about switching, so I don't think you can get on Simpson for not guarding Wagner (he wasn't primarily assigned to him anyway)
Can you get on him for not guarding the other kids? 3rd qt kid with dreads was scoring all over him with ease. I actually did go back and found he guarded Wagner twice in the 2nd qt. He didn't actually attempt to guard tho. 2 lazy closeouts by Simpson, 2 easy open jumpers for Wagner.
Is Simpson scoring enough points now for that one poster?
I like his potential a lot. Hopefully we can find a one-year PG transfer in the portal for next season to pair with him... With the new transfer rules where nobody has to sit out, one-year guys are actually going to be slightly undervalued I think. The top top schools are going to want multi-year guys (Gonzaga with Rasir Bolton, Kentucky with CJ Fredrick, MIchigan State with Tyson Walker, etc).
Obviously the best of the best one year guys will still be coveted (like Remy Martin to Kansas) but there might be some good value on the next tier.
Obviously the best of the best one year guys will still be coveted (like Remy Martin to Kansas) but there might be some good value on the next tier.